Tag: Horse Racing

Cesarewitch Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch has recently been run largely for the benefit of National Hunt trainers with the likes of Messrs Henderson and Pipe enjoying considerable success. Henderson is back in search of more with his admirably consistent handicapper Lieutenant Miller but there are some classy horses in opposition.

Tiger Claw runs in the same colours as Lieutenant Miller and has not run since winning the Ebor for Lady Cecil. He is set to race off a 6lbs higher mark but connections have not been phased by that or by the prospect of lumping 9st 10lb between Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Clearly both horses are fit and fancied with Ryan Moore an eye-catching booking for Henderson’s charge.

The Irish are not averse to the occasional tilt at this valuable prize and plenty of punters see Domination as a likely winner after two easy wins over hurdles. I am slightly put off by the fact that he has risen 18lbs since winning here in the Cesarewitch Trial just over a year ago. Pallasator was considered a possible for the Ebor earlier in the season but did not reappear until Haydock last month when staying on dourly behind Platinum. He is still lightly-raced and bookmakers are always wary of Sir Mark Prescott’s runners in the big handicaps.

However, they are presently running scared after a plunge on French raider Smoky Hill. The horse has halved in price since trainer Mikel Delzangles declared his intention to run whatever the conditions. By coincidence, Delzangles had just started working for Jimmy Fitzgerald when Trainglot won the race in 1990 in the same colours that are to be carried on Saturday by Smoky Hill.

He has stated that the horse is very well handicapped, something that is quickly apparent when looking at his last run. He finished fourth in the Prix Gladiateur, a Group 3 race. To get some idea of the form lines, trailing in his wake were Genzy (104) and Aiken (112). Smoky Hill gets in here with a rating of just 91. Earlier in the season he had finished only a couple of lengths behind Melbourne Cup hope and Gold Cup third Top Trip (113).

It appears that he has about 10lbs in hand, if the official figures are correct. His trainer has confirmed that he’ll run irrespective of the ground conditions so 10-1 looks too good to refuse.

Smoky Hill 10-1 (Sportingbet)

Nottingham Preview Wednesday 9th October

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

What a spectacular victory by Treve in the Arc! I must admit that I was quite surprised by how easily she destroyed a top quality field but I was disappointed at the lack of pace. You would have thought that horses such as Leading Light and Ocovango would have been driven up to the leaders as soon as their riders realised it was going to turn into a sprint finish. Of course that doesn’t take anything away from the winner and it’s great news that she is to be kept in training at four.

We are treated to far more humble entertainment tomorrow from Nottingham with a distinct “end of season” feel about the majority of the card. Whilst there can be some good bets in maiden races at this time of year, the handicaps tend to be virtually impossible as horses are entered all over the place to try to earn their winter feed. The exception on Wednesday is a very interesting nursery at 4.00 in which Luca Cumani runs easy Newcastle scorer Volume.

I am no expert on the riding skills of Kirsty Milczarek but she looked as though she was trying very hard not to win by too far. The filly by Mount Nelson was sent off at 8-11 at Newcastle after a very promising debut third at Newmarket. She led two furlongs from home and was ridden clear to win by four and a half lengths without Milczarek having to resort to the whip. The form may not have amounted to much but the style of her victory suggests that there is a lot more to come. William Buick takes over tomorrow and is riding at the peak of form after a Monday treble.

The chief threat may come from Gold Trail who won a better looking race at Haydock at the start of September. The odds-on favourite that day was Sir Michael Stoute’s Snow Sky who has since hacked up to give the form a boost. The runner-up Tahadee did not perform quite so well when a well-beaten third at Goodwood but Gold Trail is also capable of improvement.

Top of The Glas and Bureau also have to be considered as previous winners but Volume and Gold Trail look the two with most scope and I’m siding with the Cumani filly. She is a top price of 2-1 early with Paddy Power and will hopefully get us off to a winning start to the week.

Volume 4.00 Nottingham 2-1 Paddy Power

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

For once, Sunday’s Arc looks worthy of all the pre-race hype. In recent years we have some outstanding winners but the field has often lacked a bit of depth. That cannot possibly be said of this year’s race.

Understandably, the Japanese champion Orfevre is the strong favourite to go one better than last year. Christophe Soumillon was given plenty of stick for his ride that day, going clear only to falter in the closing stages and finish second. In his defence, he did have to overcome a wide draw but he would certainly have won had he been able to delay his run a little longer.

Germany’s Novellist received rave reviews after trouncing his rivals in the King George at Ascot in the summer but that form now looks less inspiring. The favourite Cirrus des Aigles is running on Saturday over a shorter distance as he bids to redeem his reputation whilst the Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is also an absentee. There have been some moderate King George’s in recent years and Novellist was far less impressive next time.

Much of the attention surrounding the unbeaten Treve has been due to Frankie Dettori’s association with the filly and his unfortunate accident this week. Thierry Jarnet can hardly be regarded as a mere substitute having won two Arcs and ridden the filly to three victories himself. The worry with her is that she has not met the colts previously and she likes to arrive fast and late. A poor draw certainly won’t help as she will need the gaps to come at the right time.

The Prix Niel is a tough race to assess with little to separate Japanese Derby winner Kizuna, Epsom Derby winner Ruler of the World and Andre Fabre’s Ocovango. I fancied Ocovango to run a big race at Epsom in June and he may have been placed had he been ridden more prominently. The softer ground should be more in his favour than that of his stable companion Flintshire.

We know that Ruler of the World handles soft going from his easy win at Chester in May and it would be no surprise to see him running well on Sunday. I certainly fancy him a lot more than the supplemented St Leger winner Leading Light. Leger winners have a poor record here and I would be surprised if were good enough to buck the trend.

The horse that has been overlooked in the betting is the French Derby winner Intello. He is rated the main hope of seven times Arc winner Andre Fabre, yet is available at 12-1. The reason is simple. He has been campaigned at a mile to a mile and a quarter and the trainer himself has questioned his ability to stay a mile and a half.

He started his season off in the Feilden Stakes over nine furlongs at Newmarket and that race has always been regarded as a starting point for mile and a half horses. He was an unlucky second in the French Guineas but won the French Derby easily. His rider Olivier Peslier will be the winning-most jockey of all time in the Arc if he scores on Sunday.

Intello 12-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

Racing Preview Saturday 5th October

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Ballinderry Boy (tipped at 4-1) gave us something to shout about at Ascot on Friday and young Oisin Murphy certainly looks like a star of the future. It presumably won’t be too long before he is snapped up to ride for one of the leading owners. As anticipated, the rest of the card proved difficult although Blessington (2nd) ran a promising race and can win before the season is out.

I’m previewing the Arc separately but there is plenty of racing going on in the UK to keep punters happy this weekend. If you thought Ascot’s card was difficult on Friday, the bad news is that it looks even harder on Saturday! There is competitive racing throughout with the bookies going 8-1 the field in the Challenge Cup.

Ascription has not exactly been let in lightly with top weight but this trip and ground should suit him better than the nine furlongs of the Cambridgeshire, his intended target before the ground firmed up. There will probably be something lurking lower down the handicap to beat him but I’m hoping that he will give us a run for our money.

Nargys has been called a few names this season after turning in below par efforts. She is very smart on her day and things finally fell right for her at Doncaster last month when she won the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes. I’m hoping that the soft ground is the key to her and that she can repeat that performance on Saturday.

The Cornwallis Stakes looks wide open but I believe that Royal Mezyan is over priced at 11-1. He won very easily last time and had previously finished close up behind No Nay Never at Royal Ascot.

Over at Redcar, I’m surprised to see Emirates Flyer priced up as high as 7-1. If he bolts up tomorrow a few people will be kicking themselves for not believing his 2-length second to Kingman at Sandown. It is true that the 2000 Guineas favourite had a lot more up his sleeve but Emirates Flyer might just have more class than most of these.

Johnny Murtagh has been winning everything in sight since he obtained his training licence and he has a good chance of adding the Tattersalls Millions tomorrow. He rides Toofi for Roger Varian who landed a gamble when beating Jallota here 2 weeks ago. Oklahoma City is the obvious threat but 9-2 looks decent value.

Hopefully Luca Cumani’s Ajman Bridge can round off the day’s proceedings with victory in the closing handicap. He was having only his second start when winning nicely at Pontefract in a race that looked fairly decent. He shaped like a horse with a future and can take this on the way to better things.

Ascot 2.05 Royal Mezyan 11-1 Coral, William Hill

Ascot 3.50 Ascription 8-1 William Hill

Ascot 4.25 Nargys 4-1 William Hill

Redcar 3.30 Emirates Flyer 7-1 Bet365, BetVictor

Newmarket 2.20 Toofi 9-2 William Hill

Newmarket 5.15 Ajman Bridge 15-8 William Hill

Ascot Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The British weather is playing havoc with running plans at the moment and there is clearly a lot of dissatisfaction at the 48-hour declaration system. Trainers have been moaning all season at having to declare horses without knowing the going. I don’t know the stats but there do seem to be an awful lot of non-runners lately. Both of Thursday’s selections were pulled out but I suppose that is better than getting beaten on unfavourable ground.

At the time of writing the going is reported to be good to soft at Ascot for Friday’s card. It has been raining cats and dogs up here in Scotland but presumably it is not so bad down south. Hopefully the going will be no worse than soft but it is probably enough to avoid those horses known to prefer top of the ground.

The feature race on Friday is the Listed Noel Murless Stakes and I’m going for York winner Dark Crusader to strike again here. He was confidently ridden on the Knavesmire and came through readily in the closing stages to win the valuable Melrose Stakes. He will appreciate any rain that falls and can beat the disappointing Greatwood.

Betting in six furlong handicaps is always a bit of a lottery but I’m tempted by the lightly-raced Blessington tomorrow. He raced only twice last season, winning well at Goodwood in a race that included Gatewood. I’m not sure why he has been off for so long and it is probably best not to know. John Gosden isn’t the most optimistic of souls when it comes to talking up his horses and he’d probably give this one little chance. Even so, at around 8-1 it could be worth taking a chance.

The last race is a bit of a conundrum. I put Gold Hunter into my notebook after an unlucky run at Doncaster but I’m not convinced that he wants it soft. He’s by Invincible Spirit and the feeling is that they don’t really like it deep. I’m also keen to have Brownsea Brink on my side because he seems like one of those horses that just does enough. He beat a huge field to win at Newmarket last time and 8-1 looks too big a price to ignore.

Young Oisin Murphy is all the rage after his remarkable four-timer on Ayr Gold Cup day. Andrew Balding has snapped him up to ride easy Kempton scorer Ballinderry Boy tomorrow in the Gordon Carter Handicap and the tip could be worth taking. The first two drew well clear in that race with the runner-up finishing second at Haydock in a decent race subsequently.

Blessington (3.05) 8-1 Ladbrokes

Dark Crusader (3.40) 7-2 Coral

Ballinderry Boy (4.15) 4-1 Coral

Brownsea Brink (4.50) 8-1 Coral

Warwick Thursday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Nabucco (tipped at 5-2) romped home by six lengths in the mud at Salisbury yesterday to kick off the week in style. The same combination of John Gosden and William Buick can follow up on Thursday with Willow Beck in the 4.40 at Warwick.

This tough and consistent filly chalked up a hat-trick of wins but has been beaten in her last two starts. She must have been a good thing off a mark of 65 at Yarmouth in July when she began her winning sequence and tomorrow she races off an all-time high of 88. It may seem strange to be tipping a filly that has been beaten in her last two handicaps but her last run suggests that there could still be more to come.

She had to be niggled along to get to the front approaching the final furlong and looked for a long time as though she would hang on. She was eventually beaten into third by Phaenomena and Astonishing, beaten a length and a half. The runner-up came out and landed a mighty gamble at Newmarket last week, winning a Listed race by seven lengths! I had fancied Gosden’s Phiz for that race after her fine run behind The Lark at Doncaster but she was left trailing by Sir Michael Stoute’s filly.

Of course it can be dangerous to take the form too literally but there is every chance that Willow Beck was up against a couple of Group class fillies at Newmarket and she’s worth a bet at 4-1.

Buick has a good chance of landing the Nursery at 2.40 when he partners Outback Traveller* for Jeremy Noseda. A mark of 75 does not look prohibitive for the son of Bushranger after making all in his maiden at Lingfield. The runner-up has run respectably in maiden company since and the extra furlong should see further improvement.

The draw is a slight concern but he popped out quickly last time and Buick shouldn’t have too much difficulty getting him up behind the leaders early on. There has been plenty of rain around over the past few days but Warwick seems to have escaped most of it with the going reportedly still good to firm. That should suit both selections perfectly and hopefully young Buick can steer home a double.

Outback Traveller 2.40 (4-1 Bet365, BetVictor) *Non-Runner

Willow Beck 4.40 (4-1 Paddy Power)