Tag: Horse Racing

Salisbury Wednesday Preview

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Vorda (2-1) made sure that we finished Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting on a winning note. She looked very impressive to me and it will be fascinating to see how she gets on at the Breeders’ Cup next month. It was certainly a great week of trials for the 1000 Guineas and I wouldn’t despair if you have backed Rizeena or Ihtimal ante-post. Neither got the run of the race and could still make live classic contenders next spring.

After a quiet start to the week, there is some decent racing at Salisbury on Wednesday. The Conditions race at 4.30 brings together Justice Day and Expert who were second and third at Doncaster recently. With Figure Of Speech also in the field and all three having had busy seasons, this looks like a race to watch rather than get involved in.

One horse that should offer some value is John Gosden’s Nabucco. The four-year-old landed some nice bets when winning a decent handicap at Newmarket in June and was last seen finishing second at Glorious Goodwood. That was a decent effort as he had to overcome a wide draw and race more prominently than would have been ideal. He fought off all challengers bar the confidently ridden Viewpoint who is again in opposition tomorrow.

Nabucco is only 2lbs better off with Viewpoint for a length so it could be close between the pair but I just feel that Gosden’s horse will come out on top. If Buick can settle him on or near the lead without having to chase after him, he will tough to pass in the closing stages. Most of the field are well exposed with the exception of Andrew Balding’s Open Water who was a beaten favourite at Windsor in May. Paddy Power and BetVictor have chalked up Nabucco at 5-2 and he looks the best bet on the card.

Red Galileo is a nice colt and has been unlucky to finish runner-up in all three starts to date. He looks set to get off the mark under Ryan Moore at Kempton tomorrow evening with only three opponents. Mark Johnston’s Zumurudah is the obvious threat having won comfortably at Carlisle last time out but Red Galileo should have his measure.

Nabucco (3.55 Salisbury) 5-2 Paddy Power, BetVictor

Red Galileo (7.40 Kempton) 5-11 Betfair

Newmarket Day 3 Preview

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Ihtimal and Rizeena were both eclipsed by 28-1 shot Chrisellium and Channel 4 viewers were “treated” to repeated showings of Willie Carson doing a celebratory jig. He’s a part owner so he’s entitled to celebrate but it seems a bit strange that he should choose a Clive Brittain-esque routine, especially having just beaten Clive’s top filly? No doubt Channel 4 have their reasons for turning it into the Willie Carson show but it merely served to remind me to watch only the racing and switch off the guff in between.

As for the race? Well, I am disappointed that De Sousa held up Ihtimal in last place considering she was one of the few fillies absolutely guaranteed to get the mile. Rizeena was at least given a chance to win her race but she doesn’t like being in front too long and that was enough for Richard Hughes to seize his chance. I wouldn’t lose faith in either filly for the classics next season.

The Cheveley Park Stakes has lost some of its lustre with Rizeena having been diverted to the mile but it still throws up an interesting clash between Kiyoshi and Vorda. If Rizeena doesn’t like being in front, Kiyoshi is positively quirky! She ran sideways when winning at Royal Ascot and seemed to hang fire as soon as she was kicked ahead by Spencer in the Moyglare. That resulted in a disqualification and the pressure is on the jockey to make amends on Saturday.

Charlie Hills will be hoping to bag his second trial in two days but I think the French challenger may prove too strong. She won her first three races before being pitched in against the colts in the Prix Morny. She ran a cracker, just losing out to the impressive No Nay Never with Rizeena staying on into third. A repeat of that form should be good enough but Kiyoshi is the obvious threat.

I will be watching Berkshire’s return to action with interest in the Royal Lodge although I can’t support him after such a lengthy absence. I also have plenty of respect for Mark Johnston’s Somewhat after his Newbury win and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made his superior fitness count. I shall also bypass the Sun Chariot as it is now a long way back to the Guineas and there’s no telling whether Sky Lantern and Just The Judge are still on song.

Vorda (2.35) 2-1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)

Newmarket Day 2 Preview

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Friday’s card at Newmarket features arguably the most interesting clash of the week with Rizeena and Ihtimal meeting over a mile at 3.15. I am a big fan of both fillies and it is little wonder that they both figure highly in the ante-post market for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

When Rizeena surged through to take the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, most pundits were happy to disregard Clive Brittain’s rhetoric that she could be a Guineas filly as being typical of his optimistic outlook on life. When she was beaten by Lucky Kristale at Newmarket, it did seem that she may be more a speed machine but subsequent runs in France and Ireland have proved otherwise.

Her fast finishing third in France behind No Nay Never offered every encouragement that she would stay beyond six furlongs and she duly landed the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. I  believe that her rivals played into her hands that day but she was the winner on merit and clearly has superior form to Ihtimal.

The Godolphin filly has improved with every race this season and I was very confident that she would win the May Hill at Doncaster. She was given a good lead by Majeyda before producing an impressive burst of speed to go clear. She had put in a similar display in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket previously, running on powerfully at the finish. She seems a straight forward filly whereas Rizeena might just have a tendency to hang fire when she hits the front.

I was expecting the odds to reflect that the race is a virtual match despite the presence of the unbeaten Sound Reflection and the useful Wonderfully. To my surprise, Ihtimal has been chalked up at 3-1 by Bet365. To my eyes, that is great value. If she is beaten by Rizeena then so be it, but I’d have thought she was a 2-1 shot or shorter.

The card opens with 15-length Lingfield scorer Radiator in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She meets much stiffer opposition here including Lightning Thunder who did us a favour at Doncaster and the French raider Miss France. Andre Fabre doesn’t waste his time sending over moderate horses so it could be an interesting little contest.

Other horses to  note on a top quality card include the smart maiden Yuften who passes up some Group race entries to run in the 3.50 and John Gosden’s Gatewood (4.25). The latter shaped well on his comeback race after a spell in Australia and could still have a future as a Cup horse.

Ihtimal (3.15 Newmarket) 3-1 Bet365

Goodwood 25th September Preview

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Two out of two yesterday with Alex Vino (9-4) and Squire Osbaldeston (tipped at 5-2) keeping the profits rolling in. There are two stand-out bets on Goodwood’s card on Wednesday. On form, both should win comfortably but there are factors that could hinder the chances of either.

The first is Grandeur in the Foundation Stakes at 3.40. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old won the Hollywood Turf Cup last season and was again on his travels in August when attempting to land the Arlington Million. His chances were dealt a blow when he was given a poor draw and he subsequently suffered an injury during the race.

It was to his credit that he was able to run on as well as he did to finish a little over four lengths back in fourth behind the promoted Real Solution. On his previous start he had closed to within three-quarters of a length of the odds-on Mukhadram at York and he will be hard to beat on that form. The concern has to be whether he can bounce back from his exertions. He was accompanied to Arlington by Yeager and that horse ran as if his legs were tied together at Newmarket on Saturday.

Opposition includes Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther, racing over a trip well short of his best in order to finalise plans for a possible Melbourne Cup tilt. Sugar Boy is a more potent threat over this trip having beaten Eye Of The Storm, Galileo Rock and Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial in April. He is on the comeback trail after running a dismal race in the Irish Derby.

The second wager is the rapidly improving Battalion*, trained by William Haggas. The three-year-old has been a revelation since getting some give in the ground and handed out a thrashing to hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson at Yarmouth last week. He made the running under Silvestre de Sousa and the jockey could scarcely believe his eyes when glancing over at his toiling rivals. The race was over long before the final furlong and he was eased to a five-length victory.

He is running again quickly because he incurs only a 6lbs penalty whereas the handicapper will undoubtedly clobber him with at least twice that. He still has 9st 13lb to carry but the main worry is whether the ground will be soft enough for him. It is officially good to soft, soft in places, but drying out rapidly on the Sussex Downs. Providing there is enough juice left in the ground, he should provide Ryan Moore with another winner.

Grandeur 3.40 5-2 Paddy Power

Battalion 4.15 6-4 Coral (*non-runner)

 

Lingfield Preview 24th September

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Wins for Coral Mist (7-1) and Supplicant (5-1) gave us a tidy profit on a busy Saturday. The highlight this week is the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket but we’ll start the week with a look at Lingfield on Tuesday.

I’m not a great fan of the all-weather but the big Newmarket stables seem to be happy to run their maidens at Lingfield and there are a couple that catch my eye. The first is Sir Michael Stoute’s Alex Vino in the 3.00 race.

He finished third on his debut behind 33-1 shot Learaig at Newmarket when ridden by Kieren Fallon. As a son of High Chaparral, he’s bred for a mile and a half in time so the seven furlongs was barely enough to get him going. Fallon was noticeably easy on him, pushing out with hands and heels. Ryan Moore steps in for the ride tomorrow and has one significant opponent in Alpine Retreat. The Godolphin colt finished second on his debut at Kempton so will handle the surface and rates a live danger. I’m just hoping that Alex Vino has more scope and I expect him to be ridden more prominently here.

My second bet of the day is in the closing race at 5.30. If any Lingfield regulars are thinking of leaving early to beat the traffic, they may want to hold on for an interesting maiden. Squire Osbaldeston is the selection, running for Lady Cecil who has just confirmed her intention to remain in charge at Warren Place next season.

This colt has always been held in some regard but has only managed three racecourse appearances. The most recent was back in May when he saw no daylight at all behind Eshtiaal at Goodwood. There are some useful sorts in opposition, notably Godolphin’s Hawker, but I’m hoping that Lady C has her charge fully wound up for this. By the way, Squire Osbaldeston himself once won a 200-mile endurance race by completing it in ten hours. Hopefully his namesake will come home a lot quicker tomorrow!

Alex Vino 3.00 15-8 Skybet

Squire Osbaldeston 5.30 5-2 Bet Victor

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 21st September

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Having wisely resisted the temptation to get involved in the first two days of the Ayr Western meeting, Saturday’s card provides some top quality racing. There are also excellent betting opportunities at Newbury and Newmarket on what promises to be a very entertaining weekend.

The first horse that I want to be on at Ayr is the two-year-old Braidley in the opening nursery. He won so easily at Doncaster that even a hefty 10lbs rise doesn’t put me off. You wouldn’t want to take too short a price but I’m happy with the opening 4-1.

The Firth Of Clyde Stakes brings together Valonia and Coral Mist, first and second at Goodwood last month. That was Coral Mist’s first outing and she showed the benefit of the experience when winning impressively next time. Qatar Racing have moved in to purchase Valonia and are hoping that she can prove good enough to justify an entry in the Rockfel Stakes. Remember You is the form horse if Great White Eagle is as good as his Guineas price says but I’m siding with Coral Mist at 7-1.

I haven’t dabbled in the ante-post market for the Ayr Gold Cup. Over 200 entries was just too mind-blowing even for me! I’m inclined to stick with Richard Fahey’s Baccarat after the way he mowed down Spinatrix at Ripon. His trainer has admitted that he has a slight concern over the soft ground but he’s one of the few runners with pretentions of class and looks a reasonable bet at 12-1.

Fahey is also confident of a bold run from Supplicant in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. Richard Hannon’s Shamshon is the obvious threat if he sees out the extra furlong but an each-way bet on Supplicant surely can’t be far off the mark at 5-1 or thereabouts. The Arc Trial may be rather grandly named but there are some decent types turning out including Godolphin’s Kassiano. He won with any amount in hand at Newmarket last time and looks to have his idea trip. I have a healthy respect for Gifted Girl but she is unproven beyond a mile whilst Camborne probably needs further.

According to the official handicapper, Jallota and Wedding Ring should bolt up in their respective £100,000 sales races. They each have upwards of 12lbs in hand on their rivals. Things don’t always work out that way but Wedding Ring is not that far behind Ihtimal whilst Jallota ran in one of the best two-year-old races in Europe when fourth to No Nay Never.

I’m also keen on the beautifully bred Casual Smile in the opener. I thought she would win at Ascot last time but she seemed to get involved in a set-to with a rival when launching her run on the outside and never quite got there. Finally, look out for Yeager in the last. His run in Arlington was brought to an abrupt end when he clipped the heels of a rival but he looked a fast improving sort when winning for us at 20-1 at Ascot. A good run on Saturday will put him in contention for the Cambridgeshire.

Ayr

1.30 Braidley 4-1 William Hill

3.15 Coral Mist 7-1 William Hill

3.50 Baccarat 12-1 888Sport

Newbury

1.50 Kassiano 13-8 William Hill

2.20 Supplicant 5-1 Coral

Newmarket

1.55 Casual Smile 13-8 Betfair

2.30 Wedding Ring 6-4 Bet365

3.05 Jallota 6-4 Paddy Power

5.55 Yeager 6-1 William Hill