Tag: Horse Racing

Doncaster Day 2 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It was nice to get back on the winning trail on the opening day of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, courtesy of Lightning Thunder at 5-2. She may only have scraped home but she showed plenty of promise for the future and it will be interesting to see whether trainer Olly Stevens steps her up in class with the benefit of this experience under her belt.

I am hoping that another filly can provide us with more cause for celebration on Thursday in the shape of Michael Bell’s The Lark. Regular readers will remember that I picked her out at 33-1 for the Oaks in the summer and she rewarded my support when running on strongly into third behind Talent. She has only managed to get back on the racecourse once since then due to the fast ground. Michael Bell took her over to France but the race was run at a false pace and she could never get into the race won by Pacific Rim.

I think it is safe to put a line through that race and Bell seems optimistic that she can leave that form well behind in the Park Hill Stakes on Thursday. The Lark looked like a filly with a future when she won under Hayley Turner on Town Moor last autumn. She did not reappear until the Swettenham Stud Trial at Newbury in May and was again the victim of a falsely run race. She was held up in a race run at a dawdle and quickened up well enough in the straight without threatening to get to Winsili.

That filly proved good enough to win the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood so it was a far better effort that first appeared. Ironically it is Hayley Turner that could provide the biggest threat to The Lark tomorrow when she partners Seal Of Approval. James Fanshawe’s filly is nothing if not game and battled on bravely to win a listed race at Newbury last month. Those that finished behind her that day have done little for the form and The Lark should have too much class for her.

My one concern is that I seem to be a bit of a jinx when it comes to backing Jamie Spencer. I don’t expect the field to go off at a blistering pace over this trip and I’d expect to see The Lark held up in third or fourth rather than stone last.

The Lark 7-4 Ladbrokes

Ascot Saturday 7th September Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Ascot provides a typically competitive card on Saturday and opens with a seven-furlong handicap at 1.55. Many of these horses have been running against each other all season, taking it in turns to scoop the big prizes. Galician bolted up in the International Stakes here whilst Glen Moss landed a huge gamble at Newbury last month. Field Of Dream had his turn in the Bunbury Cup whilst Excellent Guest won the Victoria Cup in the spring.

At present, the rain seems to be largely confined to the north so the going could remain on the fast side. The bookmakers have opened up at 7-1 the field and it is difficult to be confident about any of these. Glen Moss won so easily for us at Newbury that I had to follow him at Goodwood despite an unfavourable draw. Frankie Dettori bounced him out smartly but he was a spent force inside the final furlong and back-peddled quickly. He could be worth each-way support at 16-1.

There are some nice two-year-olds about at the moment but few can boast a finer pedigree than Andrew Balding’s Casual Smile. She is by the Guineas, Derby and Arc winner Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look. She made her debut in a good maiden at Newmarket last month and stayed on very nicely into second over seven furlongs. She has only three opponents over a mile in the 3.00 race and I’d be disappointed if she can’t see them off.

Café Society has been well backed ante-post for the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap and there certainly looks to be plenty more to come from this colt by Motivator. He was having only the fifth start of his career when just failing to catch Bold Sniper here last time. Spencer had him locked away on the rails and drove him out with hands and heels only to lose out by a neck. He had previously won going away at Salisbury and looks weighted to win this.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Plover has not managed to add to her victory in a Kempton maiden so far but she shaped promisingly at Newmarket last time. She is stepping up from seven furlongs to a mile and did nothing but stay on in the race won by Malekat Jamal from Ghasabah. The runner-up in that race is a filly that I like a lot and Plover could be good value in a race that shouldn’t take a lot of winning.

Balding has double prospects with Dungannon in the last. He never saw any daylight in the Sandown sprint won by Burning Thread but came through strongly to finish fourth. He shaped as though he could be ready for a big run and must have each-way claims.

Glen Moss 16-1 Stan James

Casual Smile 3-1 Bet365

Café Society 6-1 Paddy Power

Plover 8-1 Bet365

Dungannon 5-1 Bet365

Haydock Saturday 7th September Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

At the time of writing, it looks as though the rain is going to change the going to soft for Haydock’s big Saturday card and that spells danger for form students. After months of good to firm going across the country, the established form could count for little if the ground changes drastically.

One trainer who has already voiced his concern is Clive Cox, responsible for Sprint Cup favourite Lethal Force. To be fair, Lethal Force has raced on good to soft on five occasions and finished in the first two in four of those races. It is not so much a question of his not acting on it as much as how it improves the chances of some of his rivals.

I am a great fan of Garswood and have followed him with interest this season. I was surprised when Richard Fahey took the Guineas route with him as I always felt perhaps seven furlongs would be as far as he wanted to go. He was heavily backed at Goodwood on good to soft ground last time but still appeared to need every yard of the seven furlongs to come out on top. He won the Harry Rosebery Stakes in heavy ground last season so you would think the more rain the merrier for him.

Another horse that is sure to benefit from the rain is Gordon Lord Byron who has been racing over a mile. He was second here last season and, with Johnny Murtagh booked, it is hard to rule him out. Earlier in the week I recommended Heeraat at 25-1 and Hawkeyethenoo at 40-1 and both have stood their ground. The rain will help Hawkeyethenoo and I’m optimistic that he can run into a place. Garswood is still available at 6-1 and that could be a good price if the ground is deep.

The opening sprint over five furlongs features the veteran Harrison George who is going for a hat-trick with Natasha Eaton on board. She has ridden him in both of his recent victories and they seem to have bonded nicely. She’s not afraid to gee him up when he needs it and he’s won when the mud is flying. He’s got enough stamina to win over a mile so I may have to join the rain dance with Richard Fahey and co this evening!

Montiridge is starting to look like a class act and he was walking all over Tawhid before Richard Hughes let him take control at Goodwood last time. He has won on all types of surfaces and there seems no reason to desert him in the modestly-named Superior Mile.

Pallasator tops the weights and the betting on the Old Borough Cup. He is making his seasonal reappearance having missed the Ebor after a dirty scope, a race for which he had been well supported. It has been a while since Sir Mark Prescott has had a really smart horse on his hands but the vibes suggest there is a big handicap in this fellow. He has won over course and distance in heavy ground so the rain holds no fears for him. I just wonder if he may need the race to put him straight and prefer the claims of Poyle Thomas at twice the price. He battled hard to win at Newbury and, although not proven on the ground, his pedigree gives him every chance of acting on it.

Harrison George 8-1 William Hill

Montiridge 6-4 Totesport

Garswood 6-1 Ladbrokes

*Ante-post Hawkeyethenoo 40-1, Heeraat 25-1

Poyle Thomas 8-1 Bet365

Haydock and Newcastle Preview 6th September

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is proving difficult to predict the runners for this weekend’s big ante-post races, let alone forecast the winner! Earlier in the week it seemed that Al Kazeem was destined to swerve the Irish Champion Stakes but Roger Charlton is now doing a rain dance in the hope of a bringing a deluge on Ireland through Friday night. If that devious plans works, his stable star will renew rivalry with York conqueror Declaration Of War. John Gosden’s The Fugue could beat them both if the rain stays away but with “definite possible” now an accepted quote from trainers we will have to keep our powder dry until the weekend.

For most of the summer I tend to avoid maiden races but at this time of year there are some cracking bets to be had. Two-year-old races at Newmarket, Newbury and Goodwood can throw up some really eye-catching performances and the form often stands up on lesser tracks. Haydock does not really fall into that category but I will be supporting Coral Mist in the 2.30 on Friday after her fine debut run at Goodwood recently.

Trained by Charlie Hills, she was sent off at 33-1 in the race won by Valonia. After settling towards the rear she flew up the near rail in the closing stages to finish third and looks a decent filly in the making. She would be odds-on but for the presence of Merletta who was not beaten far by Lucky Kristale in the Lowther Stakes at York. That was a Group 2 but may not have been the strongest renewal and Merletta was having her third start. I’d prefer to go with the potential of Coral Mist and she rates a decent bet at anything better than evens.

Breeding is a funny thing isn’t it? Imagine you were given a filly by Galileo out of Ouija Board. You’d be thinking about winning the Oaks perhaps? Wrong. Try the Happy 30th Birthday Michelle Stevens Handicap at Yarmouth off a rating of 59! Filia Regina will ever scale the heights of her illustrious parents but she took a small step in the right direction when winning that event last time, and she did so “pulling a cart” (not literally of course).

Jamie Spencer had to take a pull on her three furlongs out and just about ricked his neck checking on his rivals before shaking the reins to win by eight lengths. Her rivals may not have amounted to much but she runs at Newcastle tomorrow with just a 6lb penalty. I’ll be taking whatever price is chalked up early and hoping to land a nice double to fund the weekend betting activity!

Coral Mist

Filia Regina

Makybe Diva Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The futures betting for the Melbourne Cup this year has been dominated by the grey Puissance De Lune who is trading as 5-1 favourite. His position as outright market leader could come under threat this weekend as Sea Moon makes his long awaited debut in Australia.

European fans will be very familiar with Sea Moon who was trained by Sir Michael Stoute until finishing down the field in the Arc last season. He first made the headlines when bolting up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He went into that race on the back of a victory in a handicap off a mark of 92. After being held up by Richard Hughes, he cruised through to lead over a furlong from home still hard on the steel. When Hughes pressed the button, Sea Moon stretched clear to win by eight lengths from Al Kazeem.

It would be foolish to take that form literally as Al Kazeem is clearly a much improved performer this season. He slammed last year’s Derby winner Camelot in Ireland before winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Coral Eclipse at Sandown park. Not surprisingly, Sea Moon was a short priced favourite for the St Leger but could only stay on into third place behind Masked Marvel after meeting with interference. Connections were understandably disappointed but he proved that running to be all wrong when running at the Breeders’ Cup.

Although proving no match for St Nicholas Abbey, he ran on well to finish second, beaten just over 2 lengths. He had to work hard to hold off Dandino at Goodwood on his first start as a four-year-old but was back to his brilliant best when winning at Royal Ascot. His victory in the Hardwicke Stakes reads like a “Who’s who” of recent Melbourne Cup races. He beat Dunaden and Red Cadeaux by three and a half lengths and three-quarters of a length. Jakkalberry was fifth, Fiorente was sixth and  My Quest For Peace finished tenth.

He went on to finish a close fifth in the King George at Ascot before struggling in the heavy ground in the Arc. His official rating in the UK was 124. Puissance de Lune has been simply awesome and the variety of distances that the top Australian horses are asked to race over is quite astonishing compared to their European competitors. The grey won over 13 furlongs last season and was last seen winning over seven furlongs in August. This weekend’s race is just short of a mile, a distance half a mile short of anything tackled by Sea Moon since 2011.

Puissance de Lune will be making his debut at Group 1 level and will meet his rivals on weight-for-age terms. Masked Marvel is also making his Australian debut but his victory in the Leger (2937m) suggests he will be struggling for pace. The field also includes the Anthony Freedman-trained Waldpark who finished half a length second to leading Arc hope Novellist on his last start in Germany.

One horse that will not be inconvenienced by the trip is former Henry Cecil-trained Jet Away. The six-year-old has won the Golden Mile (1600m) and Group 3 Easter Cup (2000m) since arriving from England. 2012 Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and three-time Group 1 winner Manighar are also in the line-up.

The bookmakers are showing Puissance de Lune at $1.70 for Saturday’s race. He has fitness on his side but Sea Moon ($8.00) and Jet Away ($13.00) are serious opponents. If they are fit enough to do themselves justice on Saturday we could see a major shake-up in the futures market for Flemington.

Sea Moon $8.00 Sportsbet

Jet Away $13.00 Sportsbet

Betfred Sprint Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Haydock’s Betfred Sprint Cup on Saturday has attracted a field of 18 with July Cup winner Lethal Force a firm favourite at around 5-2. Clive Cox’s grey emerged as a contender for Champion Sprinter when winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot but it was his performance in the July Cup that put him at the top of the tree.

Settled in front by Adam Kirby, he was allowed to dictate a steady gallop before quickening at the two-furlong marker and readily holding Society Rock and Slade Power by a length and a half. Slade Power went on to win a Group 3 in Ireland before completely missing the break in the Nunthorpe and losing all chance. He was allowed to come home in his own time once it became clear that his chance had gone.

Clive Cox also runs the three-year-old Restless Abandon who ran a fine race at Haydock on his first outing of the season when beaten only a neck and a head by Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit. He next ran in the five-furlong King’s Stand Stakes where he finished a close fifth behind Sole Power without threatening to land a blow. Heeraat was sixth and Swiss Spirit finished eighth.

Gordon Lord Byron drops back from a mile after scraping home in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. He has finished behind Lethal Force at Ascot and Deauville this season. The most recent of those was the Maurice de Gheest where Lethal Force made the running before being overhauled by Moonlight Cloud. Gordon Lord Byron was second to Society Rock in this race 12 months ago but has generally looked more of a seven-furlong horse.

Aidan O’Brien relies on 2000 Guineas flop Cristoforo Colombo. He was beaten by Reckless Abandon in the Middle Park last season and has not raced since finishing over eight lengths adrift of Dawn Approach at Newmarket. Richard Fahey’s Garswood is an interesting contender but his style of racing suggests that a bit of cut will be needed if he is to have a chance over this trip. Ryan Moore had to get to work on him from some way out to get him up on the line in the seven-furlong Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.

Stewards’ Cup winner Rex Imperator was just touched off by Sirius Prospect at York over seven furlongs and takes a big step up from handicap company whilst Hamza has finished runner-up in his last three starts and is held by Heeraat on Newbury form. Mick de Kock relies on Kavanagh who made no show at Newmarket. Viztoria has not been seen since finishing sixth in the Coronation Stakes and is another that would benefit from any rain that falls. Former Stewards’ Cup winners Hoof It and Hawkeyethenoo have not shown a great deal in their recent starts.

Lethal Force should win this if he is in the same form as Ascot or Newmarket. Odds of 5-2 aren’t particularly attractive and there may be better value in the each-way market. Hawkeyethenoo was unlucky in the Duke Of York Stakes and was not far behind Society Rock. Things have not gone his way since but he was not disgraced in the Stewards’ Cup and he is better than a 40-1 shot. Heeraat is also worthy of consideration at 25-1 having finished close up behind Jwala at York.

Hawkeyethenoo 40-1 Paddy Power

Heeraat 25-1 Paddy Power