Tag: Horse Racing

York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Preview

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The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.

The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.

Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.

The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.

Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.

Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power

Simenon 13-8 William Hill

Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365

*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post

Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral

York Ebor Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Broxbourne got us out of trouble on the opening day with a 6-1 winner. The Ladies take centre stage at York on Thursday with the Yorkshire Oaks and the Lowther Stakes the feature races. The Yorkshire Oaks provides a bit of a conundrum with The Fugue attempting a mile and a half for the fourth time having been beaten on all three previous attempts.

To be fair, she suffered interference in the Oaks and was only beaten a neck in this race a year ago but the general consensus is still that she is better at a mile and a quarter. I was impressed with Wild Coco at Goodwood but connections have always said that she needs a bit of cut and it seemed pretty quick on the Knavesmire on Wednesday. The one to be on could be Venus de Milo who was second in the Irish Oaks to the wayward French filly Chicquita before recording an easy victory at the Curragh.

The two-year-olds have just about got me stumped this season. Nothing stands out in the Lowther Stakes and J Wonder is put up as favourite despite only winning a nursery. However, the way the third home came out and won a decent race at Newmarket at the weekend suggests the form may be worth following.

William Haggas has had a tremendous season, particularly in the big handicaps. He has several horses with chances tomorrow including Queensberry Rules in the mile handicap at 3.05. This horse stayed on well in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but was outpaced over seven furlongs last time. He looked to me as though he was crying out for a longer trip at Ascot and I’d expect Johnny Murtagh to make plenty of use of him here.

He is closely weighted with Hannon’s Wentworth on that run so looks worth a bet at twice the price. I just cannot get my old friend Prince of Johannes right as I’ve backed him either side of his Sandown victory. He will probably run well again here but I’m put off by his high draw.

Our Obsession made a pleasing start to her campaign when winning at York recently but the Galtres Stakes looks a tough assignment. Lady Cecil’s Songbird isn’t exactly blessed with a devastating turn of foot but she keeps on galloping and that is what you need in a race like this. I’ll stick with her to make amends for her narrow defeat at Newbury.

Nezar looked sure to win last time at Newbury but lost in the final stride. The opening race is about as tough as it gets but 12-1 or thereabouts warrants an each-way bet. Haggas relies on Ghasabah in the closing race and the filly looks sure to go close after a decent run at Newmarket. She had to challenge wide that day and, no sooner had she collared the leader, than Malekat Jamal appeared on her outside to grab the spoils. The stable think a fair bit of Ghasabah and she can regain the winning thread here.

Nezar 1.55 12-1 William Hill

J Wonder 2.30 3-1 Paddy Power

Queensberry Rules 3.05 10-1 William Hill

Venus de Milo 3.40 11-4 William Hill

Songbird 4.20 5-1 Bet365

Ghasabah 4.55 13-2 Boylesports

York Ebor Meeting Day 1 Preview

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We had some success on a busy Saturday with a couple of nice winners at Newbury and Dandino‘s victory in the American St Leger. I could not believe the price of Glen Moss (5-2) so I hope that you managed to get some of the early 11-2. Our ambitious 33-1 Dandino for the Melbourne Cup gives us something to dream about through the Autumn!

York’s Ebor meeting is always a mixture of top quality Group races and impossible handicaps and Wednesday’s opening day card illustrates the point perfectly. What better way to kick off the meeting than with a 20-runner five-furlong handicap? I’m going to take a stab at this one with Alan Jarvis’s Lady Gibraltar who was just touched off here by Secret Asset. Two runs previously she ran another blinder on this course when beaten only 3/4 of a length by Kingsgate Choice with subsequent Royal Ascot winner York Glory just behind. She clearly runs well here and sneaks in at the foot of the handicap. She is in the middle of the pack so the draw shouldn’t be her downfall and she’s worth an each-way punt at 14-1.

The Acomb Stakes should be interesting with the unbeaten First Flight and The Great Gatsby taken on by Clive Brittain’s Brazos. First Flight lost eight lengths at the start first time out but still won by three! If he starts off on level terms here he must have an outstanding chance whilst The Great Gatsby is an imposing grey who overcame greenness to deny Brazos here last time. I think 2-1 might be a shade generous for the Godolphin colt.

Some of the criticism of one-time Derby hope Telescope appears to have rattled the cage of Sir Michael Stoute judging by his comments earlier this week. In fairness, the colt only won an egg and spoon race by 24 lengths previously so it was no mean effort to finish second at Haydock. He was staying on well at the end and gets an extra two furlongs here. As I’ve backed Excess Knowledge for the Leger, I’m hoping that the form gets a boost from the Gordon Stakes. If Excess Knowledge was unlucky, then so too was Secret Number and it is not impossible that he can turn the form around with his stable companion.

The Juddmonte International looks more of a race to watch that get heavily involved in. Al Kazeem should win because it is his distance but the pace may be false unless Trading Leather is given a positive ride. I am surprised that Toronado is being turned out again so quickly after his epic victory at Goodwood.

I’m not quite sure what Lisa Allpress was trying to do on Broxbourne at Ascot last time but she stayed on all too late behind Homeric. With Fanning back in the plate I would expect to see the form reversed tomorrow and she could be a decent bet at 6-1 or so.

Lady Gibraltar 14-1 Boylesports

First Flight 2-1 Coral

Secret Number 5-1 Ladbrokes

Broxbourne 6-1 Ladbrokes

Arlington Park August 17th Preview

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I previewed the Arlington Million earlier in the week and there is a cracking supporting cast to Saturday’s big race. Trainer Marco Botti won the inaugural running of the American St Leger last season with Jakkalberry and is now poised to duplicate that success with the popular Dandino.

Dandino was formerly owned by the Elite Racing Club so had plenty of admirers. He didn’t let them down, giving them the pleasure of a Royal Ascot victory and a win at the Epsom Derby meeting. He has gone on to land the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and the Group 3 September Stakes but his best days could still be ahead of him.

The American St Leger is only his first target with the Melbourne Cup a long term objective. Jakkalberry finished a highly creditable third in the Cup last year after being written off by many following a poor run in the Caulfield Cup. Ryan Moore has been snapped up to ride Dandino and the bookies seem to be in some disagreement about his price. William Hill have him at odds-on whilst you can still get 7-4 elsewhere. I’m happy to take the 7-4 with a little each-way at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup in November.

Grandeur has been drawn in stall 13 on the wide outside for the Million. Our midweek selections Mull Of Killough (8) and Little Mike (11) have fared a little better. Moore rides Hunter’s Light in the Million but is over mainly to partner Dank in the Beverly D Stakes for Sir Michael Stoute.

Even Moore admitted to being surprised at how well she won in Ireland last time and it is not impossible that she could turn the tables on her Ascot conqueror Duntle. The one that both have to worry about is the progressive Gifted Girl, trained by Paul Cole. She has done nothing but improve this season and overcame firm ground to win a decent race at Pontefract last time. This is a big step up in class but she looks the value bet at around 13-2.

Yeager did us a nice favour when scoring at 20-1 in a handicap at Ascot last time out and now finds himself running in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes. At first glance that seems like a huge step up in class but this race may not take as much winning as  you might think. Moore also has the leg up on this one and I’m happy to re-invest some of the return from that Ascot race at 8-1 for a follow up.

Dandino 7-4 American St Leger Paddy Power

Dandino 33-1 Melbourne Cup Stan James

Gifted Girl 13-2 Beverly D Stakes Paddy Power

Yeager 8-1 Secretariat Stakes Bet Victor

Newbury Saturday 17th August Preview

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The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes has attracted only five runners which is a bit of a disappointment. Perhaps there are just too many Group races at a mile at this time of the season? Last weekend we were treated to an exciting clash of the generations when Moonlight Cloud just got the better of Olympic Glory and Intello but this is certainly not in that league.

Soft Falling Rain comes here unbeaten and with a big reputation after reeling off a hat-trick of wins in Dubai in the spring. If he is rusty at all then he may struggle to cope with a rejuvenated Caspar Netscher who was a shade unlucky to be run out of it in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood. If the favourite is as good as they say he is, then he should win this but there isn’t any great value at around 6-4 and it might be worth taking some of the 7-2 about Caspar.

Newbury maidens are always worth watching and Richard Hannon’s Tea In Transvaal looked like a ready-made future winner when finishing fourth on her debut at Ascot last month. A couple of fillies have come out of the race and run well and her experience should be enough to get favourite-backers off to a good start tomorrow.

The Geoffrey Freer Stakes has been a bit sub-standard in recent years but has attracted a decent field tomorrow. Regular readers of this column will know that I’d follow Lost In The Moment over a cliff quite happily and there was little wrong with his effort behind Forgotten Voice at Goodwood. Aiken must be a threat as Gosden’s horses are winning all over the place at present and I’d fancy Biographer if the heavens opened.

The French raider I’m Your Man looked a little unlucky not to beat Lost In The Moment at Newmarket but it is worth considering that the winner was virtually brought to a halt in a sandwich as well as smacked over the head with a whip before renewing his effort. I cannot really desert him can I?

Glen Moss ran a cracker at Ascot behind Galician last time and the booking of Johnny Murtagh can help him secure a well-deserved victory at Newbury tomorrow. It’s anybody’s guess whether stall one will prove to be good or bad but he should give a bold run.

Finally, Mr Gosden’s Thomas Hobson won easily last time and should follow up in the handicap later in the card. I’d be surprised if he returned as high as 9-4.

Tea In Transvaal 7-3 Betfair

Caspar Netscher 7-2 Stan James

Lost In The Moment 11-2 William Hill

Glen Moss 11-2 Bet Victor

Thomas Hobson 9-4 Bet Victor

Newmarket Saturday August 17th Preview

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Saturday’s card gets under way with a fascinating nursery where the weights are headed by Charlie Appleby’s Autumn Lily. She won well on her debut at Haydock but then ran disappointingly in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was a different proposition last time out when she absolutely bolted up at the same course over this trip.

There is no doubt that she deserves to be carrying top weight and she may prove to be a group class filly. I expect her to win but, if for any reason she doesn’t perform, I’m going to have an each-way saver on Richard Fahey’s Shot In The Sun. She was tucked in behind the leaders at Goodwood in the Nursery won by Art Official and didn’t get a clear run until the winner had gone beyond recall. She’s only small but seems to have the heart of a lion and I’d be disappointed if she’s not in the frame.

The Grey Horse Handicap may be a photographer’s dream but it isn’t usually a great race for punters. However, I was really taken with the easy victory of Majesty at Warwick last time over seven furlongs and I think he could have been let in lightly here. He’s up against a bunch of seasoned handicappers but he looks to have plenty of size and scope. The drop back to six shouldn’t be a problem as he was always to the fore at Warwick.

Hannon and Levey team up again in the third with Ninjago. I was disappointed when this one was beaten at Newbury in May but he’s being pitched in at the deep end since then. Seven furlongs proved too far for him in the Jersey Stakes and he has since run honourable races both here and in the Stewards’ Cup.

The Newmarket handicap won by Heaven’s Guest from Moviesta was one of the hottest three-year-old sprints of the season and there was no disgrace in finishing fourth there. You could have forgiven him for struggling in the Stewards’ Cup but he stuck to his guns well enough to finish fifth. This is no easy task but he could still be on a winning weight at a fair price.

Autumn Lily 7-2 Coral

Shot In The Sun 10-1 William Hill

Majesty 9-2 Coral

Ninjago 11-2 Bet Victor