Tag: Horse Racing

Great St Wilfrid Handicap – Ante Post Preview

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As far as betting races go, they don’t get much tougher than the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. I’ve been dipping in and out of the form book for this race since the start of the week and at times it feels as though I might as well be reading the phone book!

For a start there are 66 entries and multiple entries from many of the top northern stables. With a maximum field of 20, everything from Tax Free (8st 8lb) downwards is in danger of elimination. Given that a lot of these old sprinters race on a weekly basis, it seems safe to assume that only half a dozen or so will drop out so there is little point combing through the form of those from 30-66.

David O’Meara has won this for the last two years with Pepper Lane and has Louis The Pious and Dick Bos lined up this year. Louis The Pious seemed to need every yard of the six furlongs to win at Haydock earlier in the season so I was not surprised that he was run off his feet a bit at Goodwood. He was third last year but never looked like winning whilst Dick Bos could be in the grip of the handicapper.

David Nicholls has made a career out of these type of races and he has three in the top thirty. Just to help matters he has booked Adrian to ride all three (according to the ever-helpful Racing Post anyway). Tax Free was second last year but is now eleven years old so Summerinthecity and Rodrigo de Torres look the pick of them. Summerinthecity finished well ahead in the York race won by Tropics and I can’t see any obvious reason why he won’t run well again here.

A case has been made for several horses that were hampered in that race including the favourite Baccarat but it often pays to stick with the form in the book. Four of Kevin Ryan’s nine (yes, NINE) entries are in the top thirty, notably Zacynthus who has just joined him from Luca Cumani’s stable. This one has got to the age of five without being asked to race at a shorter distance than seven furlongs but that is what he is going to do on Saturday. He doesn’t seem to be a particularly free-going sort and I’m not convinced that he will lay up with these.

Last time out winners Lucky Beggar, Spinatrix and Head Spice don’t look exactly thrown in. Spinatrix just got the better of Pearl Ice and Nameitwhatyoulike and I prefer the last named of the three. He was dropping back to six furlongs there and could do even better if ridden with a bit of restraint. Singeur was sixth here last year and Love Island also has course form but neither seem likely to find the necessary improvement to win this.

Top weight Hoof It needs to show a little bit more to convince us that he retains his ability whilst El Viento and the Harris-trained duo of Prodigality and Secret Witness may be high enough in the handicap. By process of elimination my selections are Summerinthecity and Nameitwhatyoulike. The bookies seem to be strangely in agreement on this race. There is hardly any difference in the prices across the board on almost every runner! Hopefully this isn’t the start of a new trend.

Summerinthecity 16-1 Bet365 et al.
Nameitwhatyoulike 20-1 Bet365 et al.

Arlington Million Preview

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If, like me, you’re old enough to remember the Bill Watts-trained gelding Teleprompter, you will have fond memories of the Arlington Million. Back in the early eighties the bookies paid out at the returned overseas odds. I can’t remember exactly but I think Tolomeo returned at something like 47-1! Of course they soon eliminated that loophole and set up their own UK prices but it was fun while it lasted.

The Arlington Million doesn’t have the same prestige these days with competition from the likes of the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup but a few Europeans still make the trip over. Last year, Afsare put up a mulish display at the start before running down all of the field except Little Mike. He’s gone on to blot his copy book a few times since, costing Kieren Fallon his job with the owners in the process.

Afsare will be plying his trade at Salisbury on Thursday whilst Grandeur leads the British challenge this time around. Jeremy Noseda’s grey has shown that he travels well with a couple of big pay-day’s last year. He also ran a cracker to bustle up the odds-on Mukhadram at York last time but 5-2 looks a bit skinny.

Mull Of Killough also has to be respected after a fine run behind Aljamaaheer at Ascot. As far as I know, Jane Chapple-Hyam isn’t prone to confident outbursts about her runners but she has been very confident about this one’s chances. I must admit that I’m not a particular fan of Joseph O’Brien but at odds of 10-1 he makes some each-way appeal.

We do tend to favour our own horses on these occasions, purely because we know so much more about them. However, there are at least two serious rivals to take into account here. The first is Little Mike who is trying to become the first horse ever to win back-to-back Millions. His victory 12 months ago was rather overshadowed by the luckless run of Afsare but he showed it was no fluke when winning at the Breeders’ Cup.

The problem with him is that he flopped twice in Dubai and then weakened rapidly when favourite in his comeback race. Connections have issued upbeat bulletins about him this week and at least we know that he will be out of trouble at the head of affairs. It could be that the bookies have overpriced him at 13-2.

The second big problem for the British raiders is the Argentinian chestnut Indy Point. He has won four Group races at home including the last two legs of their Triple Crown. Admittedly it is difficult to know how that form compares but we do know that he is no mug. Hunter’s Light and The Apache have not shown enough in their recent races to warrant support here whilst Guest Performer is taking a big step up from his earlier run in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Side Glance is no back number just yet but it would be surprising if there weren’t a couple able to beat him here.

Whilst I fully respect the claims of Grandeur I think the value lies in Little Mike and Mull Of Killough at the current odds.

Little Mike 13-2 Stan James
Mull Of Killough 10-1 Paddy Power

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Brown Panther got us back on the winning trail in the Goodwood Cup which sets us up nicely for a tilt at Friday’s action-packed card. Some days are not very inspiring but just about every race looks tempting with the Betfair Mile (formerly Schweppes Golden Mile) being the big betting race.

Looking back at past winners I have to say that this race owes me a few quid! My trials and tribulations go back to a horse called Desert Dirham who was then trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was an ante-post gamble from 10-1 down to 2-1 but was drawn wide and just about brought down trying to get a run in the straight. It is not a race that you can approach with confidence, particularly if you fancy a hold up horse that is drawn high.

Stirring Ballad’s disastrous run at Royal Ascot has been well documented but, just in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap. Richard Hughes decides that he is drawn on the wrong side so takes her diagonally across the track to the stands side. He gets no room at any stage and the side he was originally on turns out to be well ahead at the finish. Less publicised was the same manoeuvre taken by Prince Of Johanne (our ante-post selection) in the same race. He came out and won the Coral Challenge next time out.

Stirring Ballad is drawn four in the Mile and should be able to tuck in behind the pace from there and deliver her challenge late. Other fancied hold up horses are Wentworth (13), Dance And Dance (1) and Cape Peron (5). I like Henry Candy’s colt a lot but I’m just a little concerned as to whether he can handle the hustle and bustle. The ground should be ideal for both horses provided it doesn’t dry out too much. With 8-1 available about both I think we should support both and hope that their jockeys sit close and don’t mess it up at the start.

The card opens with my old friend Lost In The Moment and I can’t possibly desert him after his brave victory at Newmarket. He survived getting sandwiched and whacked over the head with a whip to get up and win. On form he should not beat his stable companion Masterstroke (3rd in the Arc) but I’m staying loyal in the hope that fitness makes the difference.

Montiridge has looked a really classy performer at times and loomed up in the Jersey Stakes as if he was certain to win. His stable companion Baltic Knight is a tough customer and should make a race of it but 13-8 about reflects Montiridge’s prospects here.

The King George Stakes at 3.40 is packed full with the usual suspects over five furlongs. However, the one that I like here is Moviesta who takes a step up in grade after being pipped in two big handicaps. They just never go quick enough for him in his races and this mad downhill dash should at last give him the chance to settle. I’m also going to have a saver on Duke Of Firenze at long odds. Ryan Moore has decided that the way to ride him is not to bully him and hope that he keeps pace with the others so that he can deliver a short burst at the finish. This worked well in the Epsom Dash but went horribly wrong at Sandown last time.

Grecian looks a decent bet at 8-1 in the nursery after losing narrowly at Ascot. Paul Cole may not be in the major league these days (apart from Ascot winner Berkshire) but he can still produce a good one from time to time.

Pavlosk did us a favour when forming part of a Stoute treble at York earlier in the season. She was supplemented for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but struggled in that company. She will be much more at home here and hopefully the ground won’t be too firm for her either.

Finally, I like Goodwood Mirage in the last. He ran well enough in a competitive race at the Newmarket July meeting but gets a bit further to travel here and the assistance of Frankie Dettori. His name gives away the fact that his owners would dearly love to win at this meeting and 9-2 makes plenty of appeal.

Lost In The Moment 6-1 Totesport
Montiridge 13-8 Bet365
Stirring Ballad 8-1 Totesport
Cape Peron 8-1 William Hill
Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Duke Of Firenze 18-1 William Hill
Grecian 8-1 Ladbrokes
Pavlosk 5-1 Coral
Goodwood Mirage 9-2 Bet365

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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I’m always a bit worried when I tip the same horse as the Tipsy Tipster. Not that I question his judgement of course! It just feels like the poor horse is carrying a 10lb penalty!

That was certainly the case for Excess Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. Having looked as though he needed every yard when staying on into third at Sandown last time I was sure he would be sitting third or fourth but Master Buick decided otherwise and held him up at the back.

As we saw at Sandown, he doesn’t do anything very quickly so being messed about when trying to get a run was far from ideal. The Channel 4 commentary team was quite kind to Buick but basically he rode a poor race and should definitely have won. Whether or not it was St Leger form I’m not sure but there will be another day for Excess Knowledge.

My winnings from Yeager are slowly but surely making their way back to the beloved bookies thanks to Goodwood so let’s hope for better luck on Cup day. At first glance it looks a bit of a weak renewal with neither Estimate or Simenon in attendance. John Oxx has expressed the view that it is a better race than last year when Saddler’s Rock won and he is most concerned by Brown Panther and Mount Athos.

Of the two I much prefer Brown Panther who has never quite fulfilled his potential. Perhaps this step up in trip will be the making of him and he’s a fair price at around 8-1. I’m also going to support the German raider Altano who was sat out of his ground at Ascot and got going all too late in fifth. I’m hoping that the penny will have dropped for jockey Mr Pedroza and he will be closer to the pace this time (famous last words!).

There are some promising types in the opener but none more so than Code Of Honor. There was a lot to like about his Sandown victory and he looks the sort of horse that could wind up in the Cambridgeshire.

Ben Hall must be better than he showed at Ascot as he was well supported that day. The form wasn’t exactly franked earlier in the week and I should probably do Gosden and Buick a favour and leave them alone! Unfortunately the fact that he’s about 10-1 and the form horse Figure Of Speech is 6-4 leaves me no choice but to support Ben Hall each-way.

My last bet of the day is on Muharrib in the 4.50. I felt confident that he was coming to win his race at Newmarket before hanging right to the rail and finishing second to Law Enforcement. These three-year-old handicaps take some figuring out but I think he’s still got improvement in him and will be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

Code Of Honor 4-1 Coral
Ben Hall 10-1 Totesport
Brown Panther 8-1 Skybet
Altano 13-2 William Hill
Muharrib 8-1 Coral

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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The weather put paid to my Goodwood selections on day 1. As soon as I tuned in to see the mist and rain I knew my fate! Fortunately Aljamaaheer was withdrawn in the hope of finding faster ground elsewhere.

I was hoping that Sir Graham Wade might also be taken out but he took his chance. I must admit that I find jockeys a law unto themselves at times. First time blinkers on and Franny Norton chased him out of the stalls as if it was a five furlong dash! Not surprisingly he took off and Norton spent the next mile trying to pull him back. Then, when the grey was well and truly shattered, he started giving him reminders! I can only imagine that the horse what the horse may have been thinking “Go, Stop, Go, Will you make up your ******* mind!”

Anyway, clearly we have to take the softened ground into consideration if we are to survive five days so here is a look at day 2. The feature race is being rather foolishly termed as the duel on the Downs. Sound familiar? Yes, Frankel versus Canford Cliffs (a bit one-sided as far as duels go). I cannot see it as a two horse race with Declaration Of War in the field.

Followers of this column will know that he swept past my two ante-post bets in the Queen Anne to deny me a 33-1 win payout on the afore-mentioned Aljamaaheer. I’d also suggested that Gregorian was overpriced at 50-1 and he ran a stormer in third. I think he may be overpriced again here at 33-1 but it is hard to see him reversing form with O’Brien’s colt.

Declaration Of War has since run a fine second behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse with Mars in behind. That was over a mile and a quarter but this is his best trip and there is no evidence that the three-year-old mile division is any better than the middle-distance horses. I think 11-2 is generous, especially given the softer ground, so I shall take him with a saver on Gregorian.

Whatever the fate of Gregorian, Gosden should still be among the winners. Excess Knowledge has an excellent chance in the Gordon Stakes. He took on older horses at Sandown on his belated first appearance as a three-year-old and stayed on well behind Mandour. They don’t look a great bunch lined up against him and 9-4 seems fair.

Much Promise lived up to her name on her debut when chasing home Sir Michael Stoute’s Along Again without being hard ridden. The winner ran well at Ascot on Saturday so the form may be better than first appeared.

JG can finish off a good day with the well handicapped Close At Hand in the 5.25. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won a poor maiden at Windsor easily enough but could have got in here with a lenient handicap mark.

Excess Knowledge (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Declaration Of War 11-2 Stan James
Gregorian (each-way) 33-1 Bet Victor
Much Promise
Close At Hand 8-1 Paddy Power

Horse Racing Tips 30th July

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It’s a shame Almaty couldn’t hold on yesterday, he put on an excellent showing to finish 3rd at 12-1. Phantom Ranch on the other hand continued his disappointing run by finishing well down the field in a race that connections thought he had a squeak in. Not sure what they’ll do with that horse now, he’s fallen out of love with the game it seems.

Today i am going to focus on the big G, no, not Goodwood, but Galway. The Weld show is well underway, and it’s time to jump onto the bandwagon as it rolls through all the bookmakers this week.

Tandem 18:45 Galway 9/2 William Hill

Let’s jump aboard the Weld train with this horse. This race as a whole is fiercely competitive, but Tandem won at the Galway Festival last year and produced his best effort yet when beating several of these when wearing the first time visor last time out (1m2f at Leopardstown). He’s up 9lbs for that win, but it may not be enough to stop him on his upward curve. The 2nd favourite Fortify is respected, he’s come out and won since, but i will most definately be focusing on Tandem here.

Diplomat 17:05 Galway 9/4 Stanjames

I’m not usually a fan of horses running less than 24 hours after their last race, but Diplomat won the first race of the Galway festival (yesterday) with something up his sleeve. If he does run, then i have complete faith in Weld thinking he’s in good enough condition to put up a real fight. He was bakced yesterday as if defeat was out of the question, and if he’s left in, i expect the same sort of betting activity today.

I wonder why no bookie priced up Weld to be top trainer? If they did he’d be incredibly short!