Tag: Horse Racing

Ascot International Handicap Preview

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King George Update

The serious injury to St Nicholas Abbey was sad news earlier this week and I’m sure that all racing fans are hoping that he can pull through. The O’Brien team will hopefully switch their hopes to my 150-1 ante-post selection Ernest Hemingway for the King George on Saturday. Having also taken 10-1 a place I am in a nice position to cover any losses with a lay bet. It certainly does not look the strongest King George in living memory so I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money.

International Handicap

The biggest betting race on the card is the International Handicap over seven furlongs. This seems to have attracted just about every leading player over this specialist distance. The key races for this are usually the Victoria Cup, the Hunt Cup and the Bunbury Cup and there are enough criss-crossing form lines here to give you a serious headache.

The Bunbury Cup was won by Jamie Osborne’s Field Of Dream who wore down long-time leader Es Que Love inside the final furlong. Not that far behind was Redvers whilst My Freedom weakened out of contention tamely. Field Of Dream has only incurred a 3lb penalty for that win whilst Es Que Love ran his usual game race in defeat last Saturday.

Field Of Dream was previously sixth in the Hunt Cup after an almighty gamble was scuppered by the draw. Es Que Love ran in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at the Royal meeting and finished behind Lightning Cloud and Dream Tune with Loving Spirit and Redvers just behind.

Diescentric did us a good turn when bolting up at Newcastle but has been hammered with a 10lb penalty. Julie Camacho is not keen to risk him on anything firmer than good ground so he may yet swerve this race. If you are not already confused by the older horses, there are two three-year-olds with live chances in Queensbury Rules and Ashaadd.

Queensbury Rules stayed on from the rear to take third in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. That race does not seem to have been quite as hot as in recent years but it was still a game effort. Ryan Moore has been booked so it is safe to assume that he is fancied. My concern is that he is dropping back to seven furlongs here and may find it all happening a bit quick.

Jim Goldie’s Hawkeyethenoo and the gallant Prince Of Johanne are others with a chance, especially the latter who has the assistance of the in-form Johnny Murtagh. You would expect the seven furlongs to be too sharp for a former Cambridgeshire winner but the grey seems to be getting quicker as he gets older! He also has a 3lb penalty for beating Es Que Love at Sandown and they are sure to go a good pace again here.

The draw is another factor to consider so we may need to revisit this race on Friday. At this stage, I’d side with Prince Of Johanne to continue Johnny Murtagh’s great run.

Prince Of Johanne 14-1 William Hill

Horse Racing Tips 24th July

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Consign 20:05 Sandown 5/2 Bet365

Going straight into todays selections without bothering with the light chitchat i usually bore you with. Now, this is an exceptionally tight looking handicap taking place at one of the most picturesque flat courses the UK has to offer, Sandown Park. One horse stands out to me however, and that is Consign. Three year old’s have a fantastic record in this race having won 3 of the last 4 running’s and Consign has all the hallmarks of a horse that can play a serious part in the finish. After taking a classified event at Newmarket, he confirmed that form with a win at Windsor last time out. The 6lb rise he’s been lumbered with doesn’t look harsh in the context of this race given his current form, so he’s a seriously strong contender for the race.

The obvious danger is Estifzaaz, who made all the running last time out only to get pipped on the line, and escapes a penatly for his excursions. So beware that one.

I apologise in advance for the price of my 2nd runner..

Pearl Spectre 18:55 4/5 Boylesports Sandown

I’m not usually a fan of maidens if i’m honest, but this does have one potentially world class standout runner in it. Pearl Spectre a $600,000 purchase out of the sales at keeneland (USA) made a strong impression on debut when beaten just under a length by a Brain Meehan newcomer. The horse that beat it that day unfortunately went out last time and finished 8th, but that was in a group 2 at Newmarket in a race won by the unbeaten Good Old Boy Lukey. He went off 3rd favourite that day, so was fancied to do well. His breeding suggests progress is a given for Pearl Spectre.

Possible improvement could be expected from Mabdhool on his 3rd run, but we’re happy to stick with the odds-on fav.

Horse Racing Tips Tuesday 23rd July

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Sad news has just been announced, St Nicholas Abbey has had a career threatening injury while on the gallops at Ballydoyle, this obviously means he’s out of the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. We wish him well.

From a betting perspective this opens the door for the now 13/8 (from 5/2) favourite Cirrus Des Aigles to win the race. He has 11lbs in hand on official ratings over the rest of the field and we fully expect him to go off at around 4/6 on the day. If, like us, you missed the 5/2, don’t worry, the 13/8 (with Boylesports) should look big enough come the day. If he puts his best foot forward he should be a completely different class to this lot.

Onto todays racing..

Salvatore Fury 15:00 Mussleburgh 13/8 Sportingbet (NOT BOG) – 6/4 Bet365 BOG

Salvatore Fury won easily enough last week at Hamilton and despite a 6lb penalty should put in another bold performance. He seemed to win with a bit in hand last week that suggests a 6lb penalty may not be enough to stop him.

Secret Advice is the main danger, who beat Salvatore Fury by a nose the last time they raced each other, and she’s weighted to do it again.

Cut The Cards 16:45 Southwell 11/10 Skybet (NOT BOG) 1/1 Bet365 BOG

This is a fairly unoriginal selection, so i apologies for that in advance. The Jonjo ONeill trained 6 year old has a fantastic opportunity to clock up the 3 timer for champion jockey AP McCoy. He’s improved no end in 2 mile handicapers since the cheek pieces have been applied and can defy a penalty to complete a hat-trick.

King George 2013 Preview

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Last weekend we managed to pop a few winners in with Heeraat (3-1), Midnight Flower (100-30) and Waila (9-4). I was cursing myself for not tipping Peniaphobia in the Newbury Super Sprint after taking the trouble to find out that her name means a fear of poverty! I even watched a video of her previous race but was not overly impressed. Clearly Mr Fahey had left a bit to work on.

My dalliance into the golf betting market for the Open looked like paying off briefly on Sunday when Adam Scott found himself at the top of the leader board (tipped at 22-1). He really doesn’t like the closing holes does he? Fortunately he held on for a share of third and an each-way return. Ian Poulter was the only one of my pre-tournament picks to make a decent show and it certainly made it more interesting viewing.

Racing is gearing up to the King George on Saturday and Glorious Goodwood next week so plenty to look forward to. The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (whatever happened to the Diamonds?) Stakes is usually a clash of the generations and this year we have two three-year-olds pitched in against their elders.

The verdict on this year’s classic crop is that they are a moderate bunch. In fact, the best of them could even have won at Leicester last week (Telescope). Sir Michael has persuaded his owners to dig deep in their pockets to supplement Hillstar. He was beaten in a handicap at Newbury first time out, entirely due to failing to settle. He wasn’t that keen to settle at Royal Ascot either but Ryan Moore did a fine job of bringing him through late to catch Battle of Marengo.

To my mind, that form looks very weak and I doubt that even Ryan can get him home in front on Saturday. Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is more likely to be the standard bearer after seeing off the Epsom 1,2,3 at the Curragh. Having said that, only Galileo Rock ran his race so the form is debatable.

The best horse on official ratings is Cirrus des Aigles and he looks the logical answer here. The only question mark is his modest effort first time out. Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe is adamant that he just needed the run and that he will be a different proposition on Saturday. He will need to be if he is to overturn Novellist on Saint-Cloud form but he has won at Ascot before and finished second to Frankel. He would probably want a bit of rain by the weekend and there is still a suspicion that his best distance is a mile and a quarter.

I liked Ektihaam before his Ascot slip up but I am a little concerned as to how that may have affected his confidence. I wonder if Hanagan will allow him to bowl on again on Saturday. Mark Johnston’s Universal is as tough as old boots but I’ve opposed him so many times that there seems no point in giving him the kiss of death now.

St Nicholas Abbey is the main market rival to Cirrus des Aigles after another easy victory in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The opposition was poor and his form at Ascot isn’t nearly so inspiring. He has been third here twice previously and he does seem a better horse going left handed.

Aidan O’Brien has pulled a few rabbits out of the hat this season with Magician (Irish Guineas) and Declaration of War (Eclipse) catching pundits off guard. I just wonder if he has another trick up his sleeve with Ernest Hemingway here at a massive price. I had virtually written him off until I saw him trounce some seasoned stayers in the Curragh Cup.

He was held up on the rail and then brought wide up the straight to mow down Royal Diamond and win going away by five lengths. It was an astonishing performance that almost certainly suggests he will be a Gold Cup horse next season. I never know what O’Brien’s running plans are but he is currently 150-1 on Betfair and 40-1 generally for Saturday’s race. If he runs he is capable of staying on into a place and you won’t get anything like that price.

Ernest Hemingway 150-1 Betfair, 40-1 Stan James

 

Horse Racing Tips 22nd July

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Well, Dank won like a top class horse should, shame about the skinny odds, but a winners a winner.

Now we’re back to the mid week grind, no group 1 races to look forward to today.

West Leak Hare 14:30 Ayr 7/4 Stanjames

West leak Hare is in sparkling form at present and when you take into consideration the poor draw he had to overcome last time, he did well to win in impressive enough fashion at Catterick. He’s up 7lbs for that victory, which puts him at top weight for the race. Dandy Nicholls charge had 2 of todays rivals behind him last time, and that was a higher grade of race than this, so everything points todays a potentially massive run from the selection should he put his best foot forward.

Beckermet rates as a live danger to the selection, bouncing back to some form last time finishing 2nd of 11 last month, but in all seriousness we know what we’re getting with West Leak Hare, so there is no reason to look elsewhere.

Grand Diamond 15:05 Ayr 13/8 Boylesports

On paper this race looks tricky, despite there only being 4 runners. Cases can be made for all 4 in one way or another, but we’re happy to go with Grand Diamond, who had the 2nd favourite Forrest Flyer behind him on their 2nd to last start. He won over course and distance in an apprentices’s handicap so escape any sort of penalty for that, and with a 7 pound claimer on-board, everything points to the selection.

Forrest Flyer cannot be ignored, with the impressive Graham Lee on-board, this top weight is a course and distance winner and possess’s the quality to beat our selection, but we think the burden of top weight against a horse going for 3 wins from 4 starts should put him in his place.

Newmarket Preview 20th July

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Johnston’s duo

Supporters of Es Que Love must be tearing their hair out after the past fortnight. First of all he looked set to lift the Coral Challenge under a superb front-running ride from Olivier Peslier only to be reeled in by Prince Of Johanne. Last week, dropped back to seven furlongs for the Bunbury Cup, he looked certain to collect until Field Of Dream kicked in the turbo and collared him on the line.

The old warrior is turned out yet again tomorrow in the opener at Newmarket with Ryan Moore in the saddle. To make matters worse, the handicapper has shoved him up 5lbs and he going back up to a mile. Lurking at the foot of the handicap is his stable companion Shebebi, winner of the valuable Silver Bowl at Haydock earlier in the season.

Shebebi looked likely to win in a decent race at Haydock last time when sent on two furlongs from home but was cut down by the useful Ashaadd. He received a bump at the start and possibly did a little too much too soon that day. I think he can take advantage of the huge weight concession he is receiving from his stablemate.

Ribblesdale form

My nap on this card is Sir Michael Stoute’s Waila in the Newsells Park Stud Stakes. She beat Riposte on her second start and was then sent to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale Stakes. Kieren Fallon failed to settle her in the early stages and she was seen fly jumping at one point.

Her run reminded me of a similar performance by stable companion Hillstar when he made his seasonal debut at Newbury. He came out and won the King Edward VII Stakes after that so no wonder there were some long faces after he was beaten in a handicap!

The Warwick Oaks form supplies the main opposition but that looked a muddling race to me and, providing Ryan Moore can get Waila settled, the Ribblesdale form looks far superior.

Improving filly

My third selection for Newmarket is Midnight Flower in the 3.40. She is trained by David Simcock and comes here on the back of a shock 25-1 course victory. She won comfortably from Nardin who ran respectably in a competitive fillies race at the July meeting. 100-30 seems a fair price for this improving filly in a similar event tomorrow.

Shebebi 4-1 William Hill
Waila (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Midnight Flower 100-30 BetVictor