Tag: Horse Racing

Newbury Preview 20th July

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Super Sprint

Saturday’s Newbury card features the Super Sprint a.k.a. The Richard Hannon Benefit Stakes. He has won this two-year-old cavalry charge on no fewer than seven occasions! The first three winners of this race were Paris House, Lyric Fantasy and Risky, although the overall standard has dropped a little since.

According to the market, Lilbourne Lass is the one to be on from team Hannon this year. She is priced around the 3-1 mark in this huge field. That seems rather short to me for a horse with two victories at Bath and a defeat at Windsor to her name.

I had quite a strong tip for Alutiq for this race, the mount of Cathy Gannon. Her run at Ascot behind Rizeena wasn’t at all bad and she’s well drawn. I was hoping for around 10-1 but the best price is now a rather miserly 6-1. I’m just put off by the cramped odds when so much can go wrong in a big field over five furlongs so I’m having a saver on Lexington Rose. She won’t hang about here and Brian Smart almost pulled off a nice win with Moviesta for us last week.

Hackwood Stakes

The Hackwood Stakes has attracted a small but select field with Krypton Factor likely to go off favourite. I’ve been following Heeraat this season and was disappointed that he got turned over by Hamza at Beverley. He looked certain to win at York last week under a quiet ride from Graham Lee but got mugged on the line. I’m prepared to give Heeraat one more chance.

Day’s best bet

My best bet of the day is Music Master in the 4.25. I backed this one each-way in the Jersey Stakes and he eventually finished fifth to Gale Force Ten. Things didn’t really go his way as he had to race up with the pace on the stands side and faded near the finish. He had previously separated Dundonnell and Baltic Knight at Newmarket over this trip and he only needs to perform at that level to win on Saturday.

Alutiq 6-1 Boylesports
Lexington Rose (each-way) 10-1 Ladbrokes

Heeraat 3-1 William Hill

Music Master (NAP) 10-11 Bet365

Irish Oaks Preview

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The Irish Oaks on Saturday evening sees the reappearance of Epsom winner Talent. Ralph Beckett’s filly upset her stable companion (and my ante-post bet!) Secret Gesture when powering past her inside the final furlong to score decisively.

Secret Gesture has picked up a minor knock and misses the race, although Beckett had already hinted at the likelihood of her swerving the race in favour of the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Jim Crowley was on “the wrong one” last time but is back on board Talent here. The withdrawal of Secret Gesture has caused the bookies to shorten the odds on just about every other runner and they may have to sharpen their pens again shortly.

Alive Alive Oh is turning into something of a party pooper. After two impressive victories she was well backed to win the Ribblesdale but was pulled out due to fast ground. She was then reported in season for her next intended start and there are doubts about her turning up again on Saturday. With the heatwave even persisting in my part of Scotland it is safe to assume that it is the same across the water and it has to be good to firm at best.

In the event, the Ribblesdale provided Lady Cecil with the winner that everyone was hoping for so soon after the sad death of Sir Henry. It is difficult to knock the performance of Riposte that day. She missed the break but soon made up the ground and cut through the pack to win nicely. Following in her slipstream was Aidan O’Brien’s Just Pretending.

Riposte is 5-2 whilst Just Pretending is 14-1 and it is the disparity in the prices that interests me. Just Pretending had been placed in the Irish Guineas after being kicked on two furlongs from the finish. She was held up in the Ribblesdale, presumably because she was being asked to travel half a mile further than she had previously. Her breeding suggests she may be best at a mile and a quarter but evidently she gets a mile and a half well. I think she could provide some each-way value.

The French raider Chicquita is a bit of a puzzle. Normally I may have been tipping the runner-up in the French Oaks to win this but she is a bit of an oddball. She ran across the track and still finished second there but took even more drastic action the time before when running into a hedge rather than go straight! Johnny Murtagh has the task of keeping her from taking a diagonal course on Saturday and good luck to him. She has plenty of ability but I don’t want her carrying my money.

My second selection is a bit of a gamble in John Oxx’s once-raced Tarana. You can be sure that anything that runs in the colours of the Aga Khan is well bred and she is no exception, being by Cape Cross out of Galtres winner Tarakala. She won nicely on her debut back in September but has not managed to get back on the track since. I expect she will need the run but I’m prepared to take the risk at 20-1.

Just Pretending 14-1 William Hill
Tarana 20-1 William Hill

Horse Racing Tips 16th July 2013

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After a weekend of group races we’re now back into the daily grind of low grade handicaps, but fear not, there are always a few standout bets each day, and today is no exception.

Zalzilah 14:15 Bath 7/4 Stanjames

To quote someone i spoke to last night about this horse “Shoe in, absolute shoe in against this lot”. If you read the bare form of 61040 you wouldn’t automatically echo this guys enthusiasm, but let me break it down. Let’s go back to his maiden victory, in that race, he slaughtered the opposition by 6lengths at Beverely, his connections then decided they had a decent enough horse to go to war with in order to obtain black type. He was entered in the Investec Woodcote stakes where he finished 10th, then dropped a grade to class 2 where he finished 4th beaten 4 lengths then back up to listed company to contest the Windors castle stakes at Royal Ascot.

Now connections are back to earth with a bang, back down to class 5 he goes. His 4th in a class 2 race puts him head and shoulders above this lot, and a reproduction of the form he showed there, and in his class 6 maiden demolition puts him in a very strong position for this race.

Croqembouche 15:45 Bath 6/4 Stanjames

17 runs, 3 wins, 3 ends and 1 third. That is Croqembouche’s record to date. He win’s in turn, every time his mark goes higher than 72 he struggles to win, let alone place. Today he runs off 73, but the placing of the horse gives him a massive chance of breaking a personal best to win today. Take a note won several times between 60-71, but is now 75 and finding life tougher.

The manner in which Croqembouche won at Bath last time (made all, clear inside final furlong and eased down close home) suggests a reproduction of that would put him in with a great shout of winning today. The fact Take A Note has been running in 0-85 races and been beaten easily on the all weather worries me slightly, a switch to turf could see the best of him, but i’m happy to stick with Croqembouche, small stakes.

Let’s hope for a profitable tuesday!

Tipsy Tipster Sunday Horse Racing Tips

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Usually Sunday is the day of the week where you put your feet up, have a lovely Sunday roast and watch Songs Of Praise. Not for us however, oh no. We’re going to get our teeth stuck into a listed race at Fairyhouse and a class 3 handicap hurdle at Stratford, nice. Let’s hope todays horse racing tips can bring home the bacon.

Sea Siren 15:35 Fairyhouse 5/4 Ladbrokes

Before i waffle on about Sea Siren i must make you aware of something. Ladbrokes do not have best odds guaranteed until 9am on the day of the race, so if you think the 5/4 is good value, take it, if not, wait until this evening when more bookies will of priced up the race. Personally, i think you could get 6/4 if you wait, but we’ll see.

Sea Siren, 8th at Royal Ascot, but in the last year he’s landed 3 group 1’s in Australia. When you read into his form it’ll appear to be all over the place, and to be fair, it is. After those win’s he hasn’t won in 7 races (all grade 1 races down under). He’s 5/4 due to the major drop in class from Group 1 to a listed race today, he should really posses too much class for this lost, but how many times have i said that? I wouldn’t go overboard on this guy.

Castlemorris King 15:20 Stratford 6/4 Bet365

Oh how i love in form horses. When looking at the bare form figures you’ll notice a sequence of winning, then finishing 2nd, 212121. Today he’s due to finish 2nd, but i am very much hoping this isnt the case. He’s up 6lbs for his half a length victory at Towcester, which seems a bit harsh. That was over 2m4f so the 4 furlong drop in trip should play to his chances. I was desperately trying to find a reason to select Jolly Rodger but i ultimately couldn’t. That horse went on a roll last year, winning 6 races in a row, but is now locked in a battle with the handicapper who has his measure.

One horse that, should it win, i wouldn’t be overly surprised is Maoi Chin Tire. A few years back he caused a 200-1 shock beating Granduet in a listed race, touted as a potential superstar he’s the Lee Sharp of horses, once beating the best, now plying his trade in class 3-6 races. He did win 2 starts back, so hes still up for it, but just doesn’t put his best foot forward very often.

Singapore Derby 2013 Preview

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While this blog primarly focuses on UK and Irish racing, we are known to dip our toes into previewing major international races. Tomorrow at 10:55am GMT sees the Group 1 Singapore Derby 2013 takes place at Kranji racecourse. Currently the favourite with Bet365 is Better Life, a horse that found the Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup too tough (finishing 7th). Prior to this Better Life had won the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (Group 2) in decent fashion under pilot Alan Munro(remember him? he’s a UK jockey now based in HK/Singapore, he’s won quite a few of the big races in UK and Ireland, most notably the Derby, Irish 2000 guineas and Irish Derby).

Punters are sure to pile into Better Life due to her consistent record at this level. A respected journalist even said “You’d be stupid to back against her” – Strong words there.

So what is she up against?

Raziyya Of Sydney (9/1) shapes as if the 2000m trip will play to her strengths, and also being a fillie, she gets the all important weight allowance and is in a bit of form. The horse which is possibly the most danger to Better Life is City Lad (7-1), his 2nd in the Patron’s Bowl last month behind Super Easy is decent enough Group 1 form, that said, Better Life had the measure of Super Easy the last time they took each other on in the Panasonic Kranji Mile (group 1) last October. If you purely read the form and nothing else, you’d have to say Better Life has a super chance of adding another group race to her portfolio, but do not discount City Lad.

Better Life is seen as a banker by the punters, and time will tell if she is indeed such a great banker. The way Bet365 have formed their book suggests she has an absolutely massive chance of victory tomorrow. We’ll be cheering her on that’s for sure.

Tipsy Tipster Saturday Horse Racing Tips

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I feel we got a bit unlucky yesterday. Almost every horse i backed came 2nd by either a nose or a head, what looked so promising turned into an horrendous day of punting, but we all have one of them every now and then don’t we? Today is a new day, and although the racing is incredibly competitive, i think i’ve narrowed down two really good bets on the card today.

Big Time Billy 11/4 Bet365 4:40 York

It’s so hard to look anywhere else in the 4:40 at York. Big Time Billy is a prolific hurdler who’s going for 7 wins in a row. He’s going up the weights at a rapid rate but still keeps defying the handicapper. Newcastle was the venue for his last 5 length demolition job over 2 miles on good. Conditions are almost perfect today and although he’s never won at York, his current form suggests he’ll put up a massive effort today and 11/4 could look big come 4:40pm today.

Montaser 11/4 Bet365 2:20 York

This horse has won 4 times between 1mile and 2miles on the flat and looks to of been plotted for this. Originally all signs were that Montaser would have a stab at the Ebor, but that wasn’t the case it seems. He’s a course and distance winner and all the signs are he’s back to his very best, with his cosy 1 length victory over C&D last time. Montaser handles the quick conditions with some ease and will relish the conditions today for David Simcock. One of the main dangers to me is Songcraft, the godolphin horse is one of my softspot horses that i have alot of time for. I’ve followed his career and made quite a bit of money by doing so, so he’d rate as the chief danger to Montaser for me, i may have to cover my bet with him.