Tag: Horse Racing

Haydock Old Newton Cup Preview

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The good news is that our ante-post bets for the weekend all still stand after the 48 hour declarations. That includes 20-1 about Mars in the Eclipse who will be partnered by Ryan Moore. I think I probably deserve a free bet for managing to correctly guess which race Aidan O’Brien would run him in!

The Ballydoyle maestro pulled another rabbit out of the that this week by announcing that Declaration of War would join Mars in the race. In his defence, the horse has winning form over a mile and a quarter so it is not like he is running a sprinter. Wouldn’t it be typical if he turns out to be the one to beat Mars!

Anyway, moving over to Haydock and the Old Newton Cup. I tried to fathom this one out earlier in the week but decided to put it in the “too difficult” tray until the running plans are known. The Highclere team has decided to let Opinion take his chance under top weight but I remain sceptical about the form of the Ascot race.

Ustura certainly did nothing for the form this week and it is going to take a mighty effort under 9st 10lb. I am convinced that Mark Johnston’s horses are coming into peak form ahead of the Newmarket July meeting and Glorious Goodwood. Nothing unusual about that of course but I was hoping he would help me out by reducing his entries for this race.

No such luck! He has left all five in the race. I thought Scatter Dice put in an eye-catching run in the Northumberland Plate last week and briefly looked to have gone ahead in the dash to the line. Fennell Bay is another tough nut to pass on his day but both horses seem to have been running every week. Star Lahib must also have a squeak after some consistent efforts but none of them scream out at you.

I fancied Quixote for last week’s Plate as a lively outsider but Clive Brittain decided to divert him here instead. Hayley Turner is an interesting booking having last ridden him at Southwell last year. His run against Montaser was sound enough and he could be worth each-way support.

I just cannot work up any enthusiasm for Luca Cumani’s Franciscan and Strictly Silver might have had a chance but for a lousy draw. I am going to have an each-way on Scatter Dice, a name that seems wholly appropriate for a mind-boggling race!

Quixote 16-1 Ladbrokes
Scatter Dice 20-1 Skybet

Sandown 5th July Preview

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The Eclipse card is fast approaching but there is a decent appetiser on Friday with some good quality racing. Prior to Royal Ascot I had not taken much notice of the two-year-olds but some fine performances by Rizeena and War Command have re-ignited my interest and there is an intriguing little race at the Esher course tomorrow.

Royal Ascot form cannot always be taken at face value but the Queen Mary is starting to look particularly hot. Fig Roll (4th) and Ventura Mist (8th) came out and filled the first two places in a decent race at Newmarket whilst Bye Bye Birdie (12th) picked up a good contest in Ireland.

That suggests that William Haggas has every chance with Survived who battled on well to be a close sixth. I prefer her to the colt, Mick Channon’s Ambiance. He was fourth to No Nay Never but Coach House hasn’t done much for the form since and I just feel that may have been a weaker race.

However, I feel that Tom Dascombe’s eight-length Chester winner Fine ‘n Dandy could beat them both. He had his field beaten at half-way on the Roodeye and his trainer things highly enough of him to enter him for the Nunthorpe. He looks generously priced at 9-2.

The Listed Ambant Gala Stakes has attracted a really good field and I’m hoping that there will be just enough give in the ground for Mandour to take this. He is clearly still improving judged by his latest effort when a closing third to Maxios in a Group 1.

Afsare’s antics have been well documented and he has been singled out by Mr Fallon as the reason behind his recent sacking from riding for the owner. James Doyle may no longer be on the magic carpet that swept him to a treble at the Royal meeting but it will be fascinating to see if he can galvanise this talented gelding.

Van Der Neer is an interesting rival having run a fine race at the Royal meeting behind Remote. He had run well in the Guineas before flopping in Ireland but this looks more his trip and he rates as the main danger.

Al Saham completes my treble for the meeting in a tricky little handicap. He had been entered for the Old Newton Cup but Godolphin send him here instead. He looked a big long-striding sort when he won at Haydock, overcoming interference in the process. Hopefully Silvestre De Sousa can get him out in plenty of time to gallop his rivals into the ground.

Sandown Friday
2.50 Fine ‘n Dandy 9-2 Coral
4.00 Mandour 5-2 Coral
4.35 Al Saham 4-1 William Hill

Coral Eclipse Ante-Post Preview

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It was great to get back to winning ways on Saturday courtesy of Lost In The Moment (11-2) and Nabucco (4-1). What a gallant effort by the Godolphin horse to get up and win after being clouted by the whips of rival jockeys! Don’t ask me how Barzalona managed to get himself boxed in with four runners at Newmarket but he got away with it.

Nabucco landed some big bets to return 9-4 favourite and he looks one to follow. As I mentioned on Friday, he is pencilled in for the Magnet Cup but it will depend how much the handicapper clobbers him. Gosden’s headline maker of the day was the debut performance of Remote’s half-brother Kingman.

The hot favourite was Man Amongst Men following his excellent run in the Newbury maiden in which Berkshire finished third. Ridden by Spencer and sporting the colours of Qatar Racing, he ran a race eerily similar to that of Beldale Memory at Ascot. That should not be allowed to distract from the six-length victory of Kingman who got better the further he went. Bookmakers have slashed his odds to 14-1 second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.

I must be getting old but that doesn’t sound a bad price to me? Up until War Command blitzed the Coventry field I had a healthy cynicism about quotes for the Guineas. Now here I am with two colts and still 9 months to go until the race! Perhaps next year will be a vintage classic season!

The Irish Derby seems to have confirmed initial impressions that this season’s crop are a modest bunch. I had expected far better from Ruler Of The World who was beaten with half a mile to travel and Godolphin will not be amused by the desperate performance of Libertarian. Galileo Rock emerged as the only one with his reputation intact and is justifiably 6-1 favourite for the St Leger. I think he will be even better with a bit of give in the ground and he looks the one to beat at this stage.

Our ante-post wager on Mars at 20-1 for the Eclipse looks ok with the horse quoted as low as 5-1 but there is still no confirmation from Ballydoyle that he will run. It does seem the most logical target but you couldn’t be too confident about the three-year-olds beating their elders.

Al Kazeem is too short at 6-4 after his hard race at Ascot. Roger Charlton may regret his decision to take this route rather than his first instinct to go for the King George. Mukhadram will be expected to adopt similar tactics that nearly paid off at the Royal meeting, forcing the pace from the outset. The Fugue finished well in third that day and Gosden has declared his intention to run. I think she is the most likely to improve from that race and is almost certain to be in the frame. I will take her at 5-1 and hope that the rain stays away.

Ante-Post Eclipse

Mars 20-1 Betfair

The Fugue 5-1 Coral

Ante-Post 2000 Guineas
Kingman 14-1 Coral

Ante-Post St Leger
Galileo Rock 6-1 Skybet

Newmarket Preview Friday 28th June

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The dust has well and truly settled on Royal Ascot and it’s time to try to shrug off the spell of seconditis that has plagued our recent selections! Many of them were backed each-way at reasonable odds so it hasn’t been all doom and gloom.

The racing has been understandably modest this week and my attempts to unravel the Northumberland Plate have been dealt a blow with a non-runner and a wide draw. Many punters will have fared even worse with the poor handling of the entry for Tiger Cliff.

Reports at the start of the week suggested that he would be running before a quick U-turn was announced. The official reason was the likelihood of fast ground. They must have more faith in the weather forecasts than I do.

In my part of Scotland, just across the border, it has been chucking it down all day today and Newcastle’s going is reportedly good. Some jockeys felt that much more rain would turn it on the soft side. Apparently the same owners were happy to run Lieutenant Miller because he loves fast ground. To add to the confusion he had to be drawn first reserve didn’t he!

I haven’t ruled out the possibility of Ingleby Spirit winning from stall 18 but I’m going to have a saver on Mubaraza who is well drawn and ran a solid race at Ascot. Hopefully Paul Hanagan will be fit to ride him and can enjoy a change of luck after Ektihaam.

On Friday I’m going for a cross-double on the last two races at Newmarket. In the 8.40 Paris Rose and Tajheez are two progressive types that should have the race between them. The closing 9.20 should be another win for Frankie Dettori aboard Asian Trader (the horse that gave him his comeback winner). He looked set to win comfortably at Salisbury but was run out of it. His danger is the unlucky Sandown runner-up Rocket Rob. He got into all sorts of trouble last time and flew at the finish. 4 x doubles should see a small but welcome profit.

8.40 Newmarket Paris Rose + Tajheez
9.20 Newmarket Asian Trader + Rocket Rob
4 x Doubles

Northumberland Plate
Mubaraza 7-1 Coral

Irish Derby Preview

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The Epsom Derby victory of Ruler Of The World was overshadowed by the dramatic self-destruction of the short-priced favourite Dawn Approach. An awful lot of rubbish has been written and spoken since including talk of a cunning plan by Aidan O’Brien to beat the Guineas winner by setting a slow pace!

The general consensus seems to be that it was not a great race with Ruler Of The World given the lowest rating for a Derby winner for many a year. Five of the runners have been beaten on their reappearance with Dawn Approach (St James’s Palace Stakes) being the only subsequent winner in the field to date.

The Irish Derby sets up a rematch between the first, second and third. Godolphin have moved in to purchase Libertarian who will be running his last race out the Burke stable before switching to Bin Suroor. They have also declared a pacemaker in the form of Cap O’Rushes in the hope of ensuring a suitably strong test for Libertarian.

Ruler Of The World could be joined by stablemate Festive Cheer but there are doubts over the participation of Battle Of Marengo and Count Limonade. The prospect of a pacemaker holds no fears for Ruler Of The World who settled well at Epsom but was chased up by Ryan Moore who could see that he needed to be nearer the front. He actually felt that he hit the front a bit early and there could easily be more improvement to come.

Galileo Rock, third at Epsom, is also set to line up this weekend but already looks as though the Leger distance would suit him better. He was always handily placed in the Derby but may lack a finishing kick. He is closely matched with Sugar Boy on Sandown form in May and the latter has also changed hands this week. Certainly that Sandown race leads a lot better now than it did at the time but Libertarian has come on in leaps and bounds since then and should have his measure.

John Oxx will be represented by Little White Cloud who has been beaten in the Derrinstown Trial and the Gallinule Stakes. Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather set a good clip in the Irish Guineas but had nothing extra in the closing stages and weakened into fourth behind Magician. He won a listed race over ten furlongs last time out but is not guaranteed to stay this trip.

I can see no reason why Ruler Of The World won’t confirm his supremacy over his Epsom victims and he is a top-priced 6-5 with Sportingbet.

Northumberland Plate Preview

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Horses that run well at Royal Ascot are often an automatic choice for punters in the following weeks. It is true that they were competing at the best quality flat racing meeting of the year but that does not necessarily mean they will be successful next time out.

Bookmakers price these horses up shorter because they know they are going to be popular. In other words, their Ascot form is built into their price so value can be hard to find. Another factor to consider is whether or not they have had a hard race and how quickly will they recover?

Tiger Cliff was well touted for the Ascot Stakes last week and received extra coverage as everyone was hoping to see Lady Cecil’s horse win. Sent off the 4-1 favourite, he was held up towards the rear by Tom Queally and ran on strongly up the straight to finish second to Well Sharp. The jockey has since come in for plenty of criticism for giving his mount too much to do but it is debatable whether he could have beaten the winner.

He is now set to renew rivalry with Lieutenant Miller (3rd), Mubaraza (4th) and Blue Bajan (6th) on the virtually the same weights in Saturday’s Northumberland Plate. On the face of it he would he should come out on top. It is worth remembering that the Plate is half a mile shorter but it is difficult to see how that might benefit any of those that were behind him at Ascot.

Tiger Cliff is a top-priced 9-2 on Saturday and could even be shorter when the 48 hour declarations are made. Second favourite is Montaser, an impressive winner at York last time and raised 5lbs for the length that be beat Clive Brittain’s Quixote. He was progressive last season with his only poor run coming in the Cesarewitch when virtually pulled up. The softer ground was blamed for that effort and he is expected to improve for his seasonal debut. He has won over this trip at Ascot last season but is now on a stone higher mark.

Richard Fahey had his team in fine form at Ascot, saddling four seconds. He has had this race in mind for his Chester Cup duo of Address Unknown and Ingleby Spirit for some time. I felt that Address Unknown was a shade fortunate to win at Chester whilst several of his rivals met trouble in running. Ingleby Spirit was ridden by 5lb claimer George Chaloner that day and may well have won in another few strides.

Tominator was also going on at the finish at Chester and now represents Well Sharp’s trainer Jonjo O’Neill. He won this race back in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead but is now on a 12lbs higher mark and a career high of 102. Last year’s winner Ile de Re is another that appears to have been handicapped to the hilt whilst David Lanigan’s Biographer will need some give in the ground if he is to take part. He was a springer in the Ascot Gold Cup market last week but his trainer elected to pull him out due to the fast ground.

The shape of the race will become clearer on Thursday but Ingleby Spirit rates the logical choice at this stage at 16-1. Although Montaser quickened past Quixote impressively at York, the disparity in their prices is insulting to Clive Brittain’s gelding who had previously run well in defeat at Sandown. He can also be supported at 40-1.

Ingleby Spirit 16-1 Coral

Quixote 40-1 Bet365