Tag: Horse Racing

Epsom Wednesday Preview

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Epsom stages its traditional curtain raiser for the new season on Wednesday and it is a good quality card. After a lovely sunny Easter, the rain returned on Tuesday and the going is officially soft for the fixture which includes the Derby Trial.

It is a long time since this race lived up to the title but there are some nice colts in action this season. John Gosden runs two unbeaten horses, the pick of which is Marzocco. He has been given an entry in the Dante Stakes at York so has to be respected. I am just going to side with the Godolphin horse Moontime who beat Munjaz at Newmarket last season.

In theory, Gosden will know the time of day with this one as he trains Munjaz. That colt duly won his maiden at the Craven meeting but Moontime has plenty of scope for improvement and could be another for Sheikh Mohammed’s promising bunch of three-year-olds.

The Great Met and The City And Suburban are two of the oldest handicaps on the calendar and it is good to see them attracting decent fields again. Ryan Moore is flying at the moment and he has a great chance of a big handicap double here with Red Runaway and Rock Choir.

Red Runaway is trained by Ed Dunlop and has a healthy weight advantage with Van Percy on last year’s Chester form. Van Percy did beat him at Haydock but that was on firm ground and Red Runaway will be more at home on this surface. He is yet to win over a mile and a half but Moore is not averse to offering his opinion on his mounts and this race looks to have been picked out following his easy Lingfield victory.

Rock Choir lost her way a little towards the back end of the season but only after winning twice for William Haggas and running a fair third in Listed company at Salisbury. She looked the type to progress from three to four and Moore could be a significant booking in a wide open race. Ajman Bridge was slightly disappointing last season for Luca Cumani but still has room for improvement and is rated the main danger.

Red Runaway 2.20 Epsom at 5-1 Bet365

Moontime 2.50 Epsom at 5-1 Coral

Rock Choir 3.25 Epsom at 11-2 Totesport

1000 Guineas Update

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In February we advised taking the 16-1 about Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas and she is now a top priced 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Our regular readers will know that she has been a star filly for this column, providing us with four wins in her last five races.

I first noticed her running on gamely at Royal Ascot last summer and she has done nothing but improve ever since. The reason for her still being so attractively priced for the Guineas is probably her third place behind Chriselliam and Rizeena on her final start of the season. I don’t think De Sousa was at his best that day, riding her well off the pace and she could never land a blow at rivals that were still quickening.

Unlike favourite Rizeena, Ihtimal has already won over a mile and has the Epsom Oaks in her sights as well as the 1000 Guineas. I suppose it is easy to be sceptical about the value of the form in Dubai but she was hugely impressive in the UAE Oaks. She absolutely pulverised her rivals and is going to arrive fit and fancied next month.

Clive Brittain is one of life’s great optimists and has always maintained that Rizeena was more than just a speed filly. She has already shown that she gets seven furlongs well and should stay a mile but I cannot see her as a 4-1 chance or even shorter. Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always a threat but I haven’t seen anything run a better trial than Ihtimal at Meydan.

Miss France and Vorda have run poorly in the build up to this race and I’m convinced that the latter is a sprinter. It would be great to see George Margarson win a classic with Lucky Kristale but she looked a nervy filly last season and she will find this difficult first time out. The Newbury trial won by J Wonder looked average and I did not see anything in the Nell Gwyn to worry Ihtimal.

Finally, it was sad to hear of the passing of former BBC commentator Julian Wilson at the age of 73. Televised racing has gone through some changes since Wilson and O’Sullevan departed, very few of them for the better. He retired in 1997 and I dread to think what he must have thought of the BBC’s total capitulation in televising the sport.

Ihtimal at 10-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

Nottingham Saturday Preview

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I cannot remember the last time that I was left so completely bemused by Saturday’s televised racing! We have an odd mixture of All-weather racing from Kempton and some packed National Hunt fields at Haydock. The jumps racing is at that odd time of season where the going has changed and everyone is trying to get a race into their horses before the summer.

Friday’s All-weather Championship at Lingfield was a great success, not least for our followers with three winners courtesy of Ertijaal, Captain Cat and Grandeur. Only the well-backed Valbchek let us down but I had my suspicions that I ought not to be trying to untangle that particular sprint. The programmers made a big fuss of launching the new meeting on Good Friday but I’d suggest they switch it to Saturday next year to replace the moderate stuff we have on offer tomorrow.

The Newmarket Craven meeting served to remind us once again that, if in doubt, back John Gosden’s horses. He was not quite able to match his magnificent seven from Newbury last weekend but he served up three more well-backed winners. Hopefully a few of you were on the Provident Spirit/Munjaz double on Wednesday.

Tomorrow he saddles four horses, all on the turf at Nottingham. Two of them are in the same race but the form suggests that it is safe to exclude Seagull from our calculations and look for a treble with the remainder.

Paul Hanagan (I shall resist the temptation to join the band wagon slating him for his ride on Aljamaaheer) partners Zerfaal, a twice-raced son of Dubawi. He was a fair sixth on his debut at Newbury when strongly fancied last August. He was then made favourite at Kempton last month but found Crystal Lake too good. He was given a bit to do that day and has a decent chance to go one better here.

William Buick is aboard Gilbey’s Mate in the 6.45, a handicap over a mile. He ran in some smart maiden company last season. If you look at the form of his Newmarket debut he sounds like a good thing. Oustrip beat True Story with Sudden Wonder in fourth. All three are owned by Godolphin and have classic entries, the last two of them having won at Newmarket in midweek.

Court Room has been placed twice in Lingfield maidens and is the best of those with previous form. There may well be something to beat him with the likes of Stoute and Bin Suroor in opposition but we’ll go with the Gosden factor. Seagull is by Sea The Stars out of an Indian Ridge mare but I’m hoping that Buick’s decision to stick with Court Room is significant.

Zerfaal 4.45

Gilbey’s Mate 6.45 at 7-2 Bet365, Paddy Power

Court Room 7.15

Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview

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Royal Randwick is the setting for Day 2 of the Championships on Saturday with The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes taking centre stage. The richest mile and a quarter race in the world has prize money of $4million and has the added interest of a Royal runner.

European racing fans will remember Carlton House being a hot favourite to provide Her Majesty The Queen with her first Epsom Derby win in 2011. Unfortunately the horse had not read the script and was run out of it in the closing stages. He then ran poorly in the Irish equivalent and lost his way a little.

He is now enjoying a new lease of life in the care of Melbourne Cup winning trainer Gai Waterhouse. Last time out he was just beaten on the nod by Silent Achiever in a thrilling duel for the Ranvet Stakes. The winner went on to take The BMW on soft ground, her third Group 1 of the season.

Her victims included It’s A Dundeel and Fiorente in The BMW and the former New Zealand Derby winner will not be adversely affected by the expected heavy ground. I cannot say the same about Carlton House as he has never raced on anything worse than soft. There has been good support for It’s A Dundeel to reverse the form on Saturday but I’m sticking with Silent Achiever.

The supporting card includes The Sydney Cup and Waterhouse may have better luck here with The Offer. The son of Montjeu began life with Aidan O’Brien at Ballydoyle but has developed into a decent staying prospect since joining Waterhouse. He has proven form on heavy ground and avoids a penalty for last week’s easy victory in the Chairman’s Handicap.

The Australian Oaks looks booked for Lucia Valentina who holds several of her rivals on the form of her Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes victory. Hugh Bowman looked very comfortable as he eased her to a one length victory and it will be disappointing if any of those behind her can beat her on Saturday.

Royal Randwick

3.05 Lucia Valentina at 2.50 Sportsbet

3.45 The Offer at 3.20 Bet365

4.25 Silent Achiever at 4.40 Bet365

Lingfield Friday Preview

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Lingfield stages the All-Weather Championships on Friday with a seven-race card offering excellent prize money. I am not a particular fan of the all-weather and I’m not convinced that this meeting with improve the level of competition. Dubai World Cup night it is not but you have to applaud them for trying.

At the last big meeting here we had hopes of a double with Grandeur and Ertijaal. Unfortunately the former let us down as Ryan Moore was unable to get cover from his wide draw. Both horses are back for more and have been treated much more kindly by the draw on this occasion.

Ertijaal has drawn four in the 3-year-old championship as he bids to follow up his course and distance victory over American Hope. The winning margin was only a head that day but it is worth remembering that he was drawn 13 and was having only the third run of his life. In the circumstances he did well to hang on under a determined drive from Paul Hanagan. Talk of a tilt at the 2000 Guineas seems to have been shelved and I see no reason to desert him here.

I am not quite sure what to make of Grandeur after his disappointing defeat last time. I had concerns, not just because of his being drawn in the car park but also the fact that he was fitted with cheek pieces for the first time. Ryan Moore felt that he had been lazy when hitting the front on his previous start but it is impossible to say whether they had any effect.

Robin Hoods Bay seized his opportunity to win well and Rebellious Guest continues to run well for George Margarson. John Gosden’s winning machine struck on the opening day of Newmarket with a double and he relies on Dick Doughtywylie. I’ll stick with Grandeur who should be able to settle nicely from stall 2.

Roger Charlton has faith in Captain Cat despite being edged out by Robin Hoods Bay last time. The five-year-old son of Dylan Thomas was on a few short-lists for the Lincoln at Doncaster but Charlton withdrew him due to the soft ground. He could be worth a bet in the mile race with his form working out nicely.

Perhaps the toughest race on the card is the Sprint with many old favourites joined in combat once again. I’m not convinced that Hawkeyethenoo is completely in love with this all-weather lark while Stepper Point goes beyond five furlongs for the first time. It may be worth taking a chance with Valbchek for the Noseda and Moore combination at the available odds.

Lingfield

2.55 Ertijaal

4.05 Valbchek at 7-1 Coral

4.40 Captain Cat at 6-1 Ladbrokes

5.20 Grandeur at 5-2 Bet365

Greenham Stakes Preview

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If the fillies are serving up a decent appetiser in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, what can you say about the main event? The Greenham Stakes sees the eagerly awaited return of two of the best juveniles in Berkshire and the unbeaten Kingman.

Kingman is currently as short as 5-1 for the 2000 Guineas and the Gosden stable have already hit form with a hat-trick at Nottingham on Monday. I tipped Kingman for the 2000 Guineas in this column at the end of June at 14-1. That was incredibly early in the season by my own standards for a Guineas bet but there was something about his debut victory that made him appear exceptional.

He next appeared at Sandown with a routine victory under James Doyle before a minor injury curtailed his season. He seemed inclined to carry his head a little high at Sandown, although Doyle was giving him an easy time and it is difficult to know how much he had in hand. The injury and the usual pessimistic overtones from Mr Gosden would certainly not have me racing to take the 2-1 on offer for Saturday.

Berkshire is a horse that I like a lot and I advised taking the 25-1 about him for the Epsom Derby recently. I’m less inclined to back him for the Guineas as he seemed to be crying out for a trip on his second start last season. That was over a mile at Newmarket in which he looked in trouble approaching the dip but ran on bravely to beat Somewhat by a neck. The close proximity of Sir Jack Layden in third, beaten just two necks, suggested this was not a great Royal Lodge but Berkshire had been off the track since June.

That was in the Chesham Stakes where be beat Bunker, Ihtimal and Somewhat by two and a half lengths, a length and a half and four lengths. I rate Ihtimal a cracking bet for the 1000 Guineas and Oaks this season while the Hannon team consider Bunker a possible Epsom horse.

It is by no means a two-horse race. Night Of Thunder bolted up at Doncaster in October but looked to me like a speed horse. Astaire won the Gimcrack and the Middle Park Stakes at two but is another who could find himself contesting the top sprints. Lat Hawill won by eight lengths on his debut at Newcastle and could be anything while Golden Town won at York despite hanging badly.

I’m a huge fan of Berkshire but I just feel that Kingman may have his measure over this trip.

Kingman at 2-1 Totesport