Tag: Horse Racing

Dubai Duty Free Stakes Preview

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The Flat season gets into gear this weekend with the first of the Guineas trials at Newbury. The Dubai Duty Free Stakes (better known as The Fred Darling) has been the starting point for many classic campaigns over the years and has attracted a good class field on Saturday.

My 1000 Guineas hopes are firmly with Godolphin’s Ihtimal and it is doubtful whether anything in this field will change that view. One filly that could yet emerge as a Guineas candidate is Al Thakira who won her first two starts impressively before floundering in the Breeders’ Cup. That may just have been too much too soon for the daughter of Dubawi and her homework has been encouraging.

Her victory in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes in October certainly entitles her to start favourite here but there may be better value elsewhere. The Charlie Hills duo of Coral Mist and Dutch Romance are of particular interest as they both rewarded support for this column last term.

Coral Mist put up an eye-catching debut when third to Valonia, charging through late at odds of 33-1. The race produced several future winners including runner-up Stars Above Me. Valonia attracted the attention of Qatar Racing and was snapped up before her next start at Ayr.

Having duly landed her maiden, Coral Mist was well backed for the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes and made rapid late headway to get the verdict in a bunch finish. Eight horses crossed the line within just over a length of each other including Valonia in fourth. It is generally agreed that a lot of horses finishing together are unlikely to all prove useful. Normally I would agree but Coral Mist’s style of racing encourages me to keep faith with her.

She looked to have an impossible task behind a wall of horses with a furlong to run but kept on in determined style for Tom Queally. That was on good to soft ground (as forecast for Newbury) and she now gets an extra furlong. Providing they don’t go too slow, I think she is great each-way value. Dutch Romance also caught the eye on her debut before winning well at Salisbury in heavy ground. She ran a bit too keenly here in Listed company in October and was third to Aqlaam Vision. She could also be worth following this summer.

The impeccably-bred Joyeuse and Lowther Stakes flop J Wonder are others to note in a fascinating contest.

Coral Mist at 6-1 Paddy Power

Scottish National Preview

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The Scottish National is always a tricky race to call. It comes so soon after the Aintree Grand National that it is rare for a horse from that event to be able to perform at its best. It also leaves us in the dark as far as running plans are concerned but it seems as though Paul Nicholls intends to run top weight Tidal Bay.

He was unlucky to exit the National last week but went on to make his presence felt when steering Across The Bay out of the race. Nicholls reasons that he has not had a hard race but he still has to concede a lot of weight. Perhaps more significantly, he keeps the weights compressed for everything else in the race including stable companion Sam Winner.

Sam Winner suffered a very severe injury a couple of seasons ago and looked unlikely to race again. It is to his credit that he has come back well enough to rank highly in the novice chase division this season. I gave him an each-way chance in the RSA Chase and he travelled well for a long way before weakening. Back in handicap company, he could be interesting. The RSA Chase form was not covered in glory at Aintree last week but I blame the different track for O’Faolains Boy’s poor effort and expect to see him back to his best next season.

One horse that did not make the Aintree line up was Alan King’s Godsmejudge. The trainer felt that he was just not quite ready for it and he has decided to come back here to attempt to repeat last year’s victory. In terms of the handicap, he is only 6lbs higher than when winning so impressively last season. It is difficult to be too confident about a horse that has not managed to complete in his last two races but there were mitigating circumstances.

The stable were well below par when he pulled up at Sandown and perhaps he just took a long time to get over the virus. We will soon know our fate as he usually travels quite nicely in his races and struck for home a long way out last year. He is certainly worth an each-way interest at 20-1 for a course and distance winner.

The race could be turned on its head if Tidal Bay comes out so we will watch the final declarations with interest.

Sam Winner at 11-1 Sportingbet

Godsmejudge at 20-1 Bet365

Scottish Champion Hurdle Preview

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The National Hunt season still has a few big races remaining, starting with the Scottish National meeting at Ayr this weekend. I’ll be previewing the National separately but the Scottish Champion Hurdle is also featured on the ante-post lists now that it is run as a handicap.

As something of a traditionalist, it seems a shame that both the Welsh and Scottish Champion Hurdle are now handicaps but it was inevitable. So much emphasis is put on Cheltenham these days that they were attracting only three or four runners. The policy seems to be working and there is a decent entry for this weekend’s Grade 2 event.

Surprisingly, Nicky Henderson has elected to run My Tent Or Yours. He ran very well at the festival but could not peg back Jezki in the closing stages. That was the second year running that he has found one to good following his narrow defeat in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year. It is worth remembering that My Tent Or Yours suffered a minor setback ahead of the Champion Hurdle so it could be significant that he is set to turn out here.

He has to concede upwards of 16lbs to his rivals but it is going to take a good one to lower his colours. There are two horses that stand out as possible dangers, Montbazon and Clever Cookie. Alan King has always held Montbazon in high regard but injury has limited his opportunities following a fine novice season. He was understandably a bit rusty on his debut in the Betfair Hurdle after a layoff of almost two years but ran a great race to be third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. My only concern with him is that he appeared to have quite a hard race there.

Clever Cookie has gone from strength to strength this season, winning his last three races in great style. They included the Scottish County Hurdle, although it has to be said that it was far removed from the Cheltenham variety. He then bolted up at Kelso in a Grade 2 race so is entitled to take on the likes of My Tent Or Yours in receipt of weight.

My old friend Flaxen Flare has been toiling away in the hottest handicaps all season and is another with a chance if he makes the trip over from Ireland. He doesn’t always find as much as you’d expect off the bridle but 18lbs looks a lot of weight to be getting from the favourite. My Tent Or Yours should make his class tell but he will need to be at his best.

My Tent Or Yours at 11-10 Paddy Power

Grand National 2014 Preview

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The Grand National is finally upon us with forty horses set to tackle the famous fences and nearly four and a half miles at Aintree. It looks as if the going is likely to be almost perfect so there should be no excuses on that score for beaten horses. Only Godsmejudge (33-1) has failed to turn up from our ante-post selections so here is the final run-down.

Teaforthree (adv. 25-1)

Rebecca Curtis is reportedly delighted with his condition after the Cheltenham Gold Cup and believes that he is in better shape than a year ago. He finished third that day with Nick Scholfield aboard and the combination must have a great chance. I think 8-1 is very short for anything in this race but I’d imagine the bookies will be pushing him out to 10-1 or 11-1 tonight in order to balance the books.

Monbeg Dude (adv. 25-1)

At the start of the season I felt that this fellow may be too small and need soft ground to win a National. He shattered my theories when jumping superbly to win at Cheltenham on good ground, although he did not reproduce that at Doncaster last time. He has “The Head Waiter” Paul Carberry on board so we may need binoculars to find him early on. I fear that they may go too quick for him but hopefully he can work his way into it second time around.

Triolo D’Alene (adv. 25-1)

I re-invested some of my Hennessy Gold Cup winnings on this one for Aintree but his odds have been going in the other direction since a puzzling run in the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson suddenly seemed to do an about-turn and rated him “a player” at Cheltenham but he was never involved. I did read that he had breathing difficulties during the race so, assuming that the problem has been rectified, all is not lost.

Big Shu (adv. 40-1)

I added the Irish raider to my portfolio after his third in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. He was given a lot of ground to make up that day and faded a little towards the finish but it was only his second start of the season. He still looks a rattling good each-way bet to me.

Vintage Star (89-1 Betfair)

I always look through the outsiders on the day in case I have overlooked something. I keep going back to Vintage Star because he has moved into a winning position in some decent races without getting home in the heavy ground. It is difficult to tell from his form whether he will improve for better ground but he has a squeak.

Aintree Day 2 Preview

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Cheltenham form stood up remarkably well on the opening day of the Grand National meeting. Dynaste looked to be set to swoop turning for home but found little under pressure and Silviniaco Conti ground out a deserved success. It is interesting that the bookies are going 14-1 the field for the 2015 Gold Cup. That certainly suggests the absence of a superstar in the chasing ranks.

The second day also revolves largely around Cheltenham form and I’m keeping faith with O’Faolains Boy after his game win in the RSA Chase. The going will be quicker and this tighter track might be a slight concern but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he won’t handle it. Holywell picked up a valuable Cheltenham handicap and is a difficult opponent while Many Clouds was unlucky to be brought down last time.

This could be a massive week for Rebecca Curtis who is putting the finishing touches to Teaforthree’s Grand National preparations. Presumably he will be travelling to Aintree on the day as he did last year because he hates staying away overnight. Being trained in Wales and a former festival winner for JT McNamara, there is plenty in his history to keep the racing journalists happy if he comes in front on Saturday.

The Melling Chase looks a tricky one this year with easy Cheltenham winner Ballynagour taking on the more consistent Module and Rajdhani Express. Ballynagour won so easily at the festival that he is a tempting proposition at around 6-1 but he is just as likely to pull up as bolt up! We should know our fate after half a dozen fences.

Ma Filleule ran well for a long way at the festival and looks the sort to bowl along in the Topham Chase. She looks high enough in the handicap for a six-year-old but should give us a good run at each-way odds. I’m a big fan of Double Ross who has been on the go all the winter and his Cheltenham run was given a boost by Uxizandre on Thursday. He would probably like it softer but he’s as tough as old boots and may also feature.

The races don’t come much tougher than the two and a half mile handicap hurdle on the card. Cheltenian was disappointing at the festival, especially when you consider how well Hobbs did with his other hurdlers. He was in contention until the second last but pulled up quickly but I’ve no idea what the problem was. Alavain has threatened to pick up one of these competitive handicaps and Linehan’s 5lb claim gives him a squeak.

O’Faolains Boy (2.30 Aintree) at 5-2 Coral

Ballynagour (3.05 Aintree) at 7-1 William Hill

Double Ross (3.40 Aintree) at 11-1 Totesport

Ma Filleule (3.40 Aintree) at 16-1 Coral

Alavain (4.50 Aintree) at 16-1 Coral

Aintree Day 1 Preview

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The Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with some top quality action. As always, there are plenty of Cheltenham winners on display and many more on a retrieval mission from last month’s festival.

The Aintree Hurdle should go the way of unlucky Champion Hurdle third The New One. I was never quite convinced by all the pre-race hype surrounding this horse at the festival as it was always in my mind that two miles is on the sharp side. His chances were dealt a hammer blow by the sad demise of Our Conor immediately in front of him and he ran on courageously to take third.

Rock On Ruby looked like a fish out of water over the larger obstacles and should enjoy being back over hurdles here. I expect him to give The New One most to do but neither is betting material.

We picked out Dynaste at 5-2 earlier in the week and he should give us a run for our money in the 6-runner Betfred Bowl. He has course and distance winning form, as does Silviniaco Conti, but the grey may just have too much speed on this track.

Our first bet on the card is for Activial in the opener. I backed him at non-runner – no bet terms for the Triumph Hurdle as it was always on the cards that Harry Fry would wait for this. He looked a smart hurdler at Kempton and I expect him to have improved enough to gain revenge on Newbury conqueror Calipto.

You have to respect Guitar Pete after another fine effort at Cheltenham and Aurore D’Estruval is another talented performer in a fascinating opener. The Triumph did not look the strongest this year and I expect Activial to come out on top.

The last race looks impossible at first glance but the Irish raider Busty Brown looks well weighted. The eight-year-old was not disgraced over a shorter trip behind Sailors Warn last time and has been placed in Grade 1 races in the past.

It is a tightly congested handicap with only 12lbs covering the entire field and Paul Carberry will have to be at his best to weave his way through 22 runners. Noel Meade doesn’t waste his time sending over horses that have no chance so I’m taking the early 12-1 and hoping for a good run. If the heavens open, have a saver on Kaylif Aramis at 14-1.

2.00 Activial at 4-1 Bet365

2.30 Dynaste at 5-2* Ante-post

5.25 Busty Brown at 12-1 Bet365