Tag: Horse Racing

Wincanton Wednesday Preview

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The week has not exactly started with glorious spring weather and there is still a chance of soft going for the Grand National on Saturday. That will be good news for the likes of Hawkes Point and Mountainous but not so good for Triolo D’Alene and Double Seven. The big Aintree meeting opens on Thursday but there is some decent action at Wincanton tomorrow to keep punters entertained.

The one that catches my eye is Kings Bayonet, trained by Alan King. The problems in the yard at the end of last year were well documented but King’s horses are in good enough form now. Bull And Bush did us a favour last week and Kings Bayonet is another with plenty of potential.

When a yard suffers from a virus, you sometimes find that the horses have slipped down to a winning mark in the handicap and I’m expecting King to fire in a good few winners between now and the end of the season. King’s Bayonet is currently rated 117, 5lbs lower than when a beaten favourite at Wetherby in May.

His victories have come on decent ground, which may help to explain why he drifted so alarmingly in the betting at Newbury last month. He started at 16-1 in the heavy ground but looked to be travelling best of all for a long way. He emptied between the second last and the final flight to finish third to Westaway but Newbury races are generally of a decent standard.

Hopefully there should be some improvement to come and the going is currently good to soft which should suit him. He was no world-beater on the level but he did win a decent handicap at Newbury under Hayley Turner and a maiden at Wolverhampton. He looks worth a flutter at around 6-1.

The obvious danger is V Neck in the JP McManus colours. He has not been out of the first two in three races for Paul Nicholls and will almost certainly start favourite with AP McCoy in the saddle. Jonjo O’Neill’s Carlton Jack has also been consistent but was well beaten last time and has plenty of weight. Henryville looks a bigger threat after winning at Fontwell and finish a good second at Exeter last time.

Nick Gifford’s Generous Ransom won last time and Patsys Castle is in with a squeak if you ignore his last run in a hot race at Ascot. Hopefully Kings Baronet can put some money in the coffers with Aintree just around the corner!

Kings Bayonet at 6-1 Bet365, Ladbrokes

Betfred Bowl Preview

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Few people enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival as much as David Pipe this year as he saddled three winners. The shock victory of Western Warhorse was followed by victories for Dynaste (Ryanair) and Ballynagour (Byrne Group Plate).

Most form pundits reckoned Pipe’s best chances of a festival winner lay with his novice hurdlers but hopefully they will have other days. The show moves on to Aintree this week and Dynaste is ready to step back up in distance for the Betfred Bowl. Normally this might be a concern for a Ryanair winner but not in this case.

Had the King George VI Chase gone to plan, Dynaste would almost certainly have lined up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year. He had finished in front of Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and is already a three-mile winner at Liverpool. To my eyes, he looked flat out for much of the way at Cheltenham over two and a half miles and will be much more at home over the longer trip.

Last year, Dynaste made amends for his defeat at the festival by winning the Mildmay decisively. The forecast is varied but the going should not be any worse than good to soft and that will suit the grey. Silviniaco Conti didn’t do a lot wrong in the Gold Cup but had to settle for fourth place in a scrambling finish. He ran at this fixture last year and put in a lifeless performance and I’d be a bit cautious again this season.

You do get the occasional shock result at this meeting with the hard race at Cheltenham taking its toll on some of the leading fancies. I don’t think that will apply to the main protagonists here as they have had a very light campaign. The 5-2 about Dynaste looks worth a bet.

Our ante-post book for the Grand National on Saturday suffered a minor setback with Godsmejudge pulled out by Alan King. I feared the worst when he was pulled up on his last start but he may be back in time for the Scottish equivalent. I wouldn’t mind a bit of rain for any of our remaining wagers, although the 25-1 about Teaforthree looks the most eye-catching. I’m still quite keen on Big Shu, although he would definitely appreciate some rain by the weekend.

Dynaste (Betfred Bowl) at 5-2 Skybet, Bet Victor

Dubai World Cup Update

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John Gosden pulled a fast one by switching The Fugue from the World Cup to the Dubai Duty Free and has set up a clash with Dank. The vibes from both Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute are very cautious as you may expect for a first run of the season.

There is no doubt that The Fugue has the class to win this but if she is at all rusty it could leave the way open for the in-form Just A Way. Having tipped Dank, I am a little concerned to see her pushed out to 13-2 and I’m going to back The Fugue in the hope that she is fit enough.

The World Cup does not look the strongest renewal and it provides Ruler Of The World with a great opportunity. I’m not convinced that Mukhadram and Hillstar are really top drawer and I can see the potential for a shock result here. I’m going to side with Hong Kong raider Military Attack and hope that he gets a clear run.

If the field for the World Cup is slightly disappointing, the same certainly isn’t true of the Sheema Classic. Aidan O’Brien trained Magician brilliantly to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf after a lengthy absence and he looks a good bet now that he is proven over a mile and a half. Ryan Moore can scarcely have ridden a better race than he did that day and he will be in no hurry again on Saturday.

The danger is likely to come from two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna. Moore rode her to a nose victory last year and will be looking to outwit Joseph O’Brien on Magician. It would be interesting to know which horse Moore would have ridden had he been given the choice.

Our old friend Simenon runs in the Gold Cup but has been done no favours by the draw. You may recall he came agonisingly close to landing a 33-1 tip for us in the Ascot Gold Cup and was placed fourth at the same odds in the Melbourne Cup. He certainly doesn’t owe us anything so we can invest a few pounds each-way on him here. The in-form Cavalryman is the one to beat as he seeks back-to-back victories in the race.

I’m a great fan of Breeders’ Cup form and I’m going to have a small bet on Flotilla at 12-1 in the mile. Nothing else really catches my eye and she would have an outstanding chance if back to her French Guineas form. It’s the best overall card that I can remember for this meeting and should give us plenty of clues for the season ahead. I still rate Long John the banker bet of the night at 9-4.

World Cup – Military Attack at 7-1 Paddy Power

Duty Free – The Fugue at 7-2 Coral, Dank at 13-2 Betfair SB

Sheema Classic – Magician at 100-30 SpreadEx

Gold Cup – Simenon at 7-1 Coral

Godolphin Mile – Flotilla at 12-1 Coral

UAE Derby – Long John at 9-4 Betfair SB

Derby Ante-Post Preview

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The turf flat season starts this weekend and that means that the classics aren’t far away. I’ve covered the 1000 Guineas in some depth and am looking forward to Ihtimal after her impressive victories at Meydan.

I don’t really have a firm view on the 2000 Guineas, although confidence behind Australia seems to have gone into overdrive this week. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has apparently said that Istabraq is the only horse that he has trained with more class than Australia. That may seem an odd reference after all of the top class flat horses that have been through his hands, but it certainly tells us that he rates the colt very highly indeed.

I won’t be joining the stampede to take 5-2 for Newmarket because he hasn’t really clashed with the best of his contemporaries. He slaughtered a highly-rated colt in Free Eagle by six lengths at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Dermot Weld thinks a lot of the runner-up, although I’m not sure what he thought about his drubbing that day!

Two colts that I would much rather follow in 2014 are Kingston Hill and Berkshire. To my mind, they both put up eye-catching Derby trials as two-year-olds. Kingston Hill is going to run in the Guineas but it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Cole kept Berkshire back for a race like the Dante before heading to Epsom.

Kingston Hill was brilliant when winning the Racing Post Trophy. I think he surprised Andrea Atzeni with his turn of foot that day, powering clear in the soft ground to win by four and a half lengths. I’m not too sure what he beat because 200-1 outsider Dolce N Karama was only seven lengths away in fourth. Even so, it was a smart performance and suggested he will cope with the mile and a half at Epsom.

Berkshire is a fabulous looking colt by Mount Nelson out of a Dr Devious mare. He improved about 10lbs on his debut at Newbury to win the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. There was no doubt that Paul Cole knew he had a potential classic colt on his hands and he did not race again until September. He looked in trouble a furlong out in the Royal Lodge Stakes but knuckled down bravely to win by a neck from Somewhat. The bare form leaves him a lot to do but he is going to be a very smart colt this season.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 Coral

Berkshire at 25-1 Skybet, Paddy Power

Grand National Update

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Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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Earlier in the week we previewed the Winter Derby at Lingfield and put our faith in our old friend Grandeur. Typically, he was promptly drawn 14 of 14, the worst possible stall.

Jeremy Noseda’s admirable grey suffered a similar fate at the Arlington Million last year and was always struggling to get into the race. Ryan Moore has the task of navigating his way through the field. That, combined with his first-time cheek pieces, certainly leaves him vulnerable but he is clearly the best horse in the race on form.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see bookies pushing him out to 2-1, in which case he would represent some value. Statistics suggest that a double-figure draw isn’t the end of the world over this distance at Lingfield with three previous winners of the race overcoming a wide berth. I would hope Moore will settle him in midfield rather than drop in behind because it can get messy on the home turn at Lingfield.

The other race on the card that looks worth a look is the Spring Cup. I’m very surprised to see William Haggas running his smart three-year-old Ertijaal here. The colt ran twice as a juvenile, running into none other than Toormore on his debut. That colt ended the season as top-rated two-year-old so it was a fine run to get within a quarter of a length of him. The pair of them drew seven lengths clear at Leicester over six furlongs.

He then broke his maiden over the same distance at Yarmouth, cruising clear of Exceeder to win by six lengths with Paul Hanagan easing him down inside the final furlong. There was nothing special about the form but he could do no more than win easily. I’m not sure why he did not race again after that but the fact that he still holds entries in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas suggests that he is highly regarded.

They say that lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice but he too has been shunted out into the widest possible stall. With his limited racing experience, it is more likely to be an obstacle for him than to Grandeur. He is also yet to race on a turning track so Paul Hanagan will need to get him organised early on. There are some decent types up against him but it will be disappointing if he doesn’t win this. We’ll try a double and hope that Moore and Hanagan are on top form.

Ertijaal 3.15 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral

Grandeur 3.50 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral

+ win double