Tag: Horse Racing

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Virtually all bookmakers are now offering Non-Runner – No Bet terms on all Cheltenham races. I’ve had a few days to absorb the handicap ratings for the big handicaps. I can’t remember seeing so many horses entered for so many different races at the meeting so it is still like looking for a needle in a haystack!

One of the most baffling things about the betting markets is how the bookies trim horses just for being declared a runner! We had picked out Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 for the Gold Cup weeks ago on NR/no bet terms. As soon as Henderson declared him a runner his price was slashed to 20-1. You can’t tell me that punters that didn’t want to back the horse at 40-1 (NR-no bet) are suddenly tripping over themselves to back it at 20-1?

One of my favourite races of the meeting is the County Hurdle. Not that I can remember making any money out of it recently but there’s something about the two-mile handicap hurdlers. Although I am not convinced that Splash Of Ginge is anything out of the ordinary, I did think that the fact that Irish Saint, Dell’ Arca, Cheltenian and Swing Bowler chased him home made it a decent race. I’m happy to stick with Cheltenian (14-1) and Dell’ Arca (16-1) in the ante-post list here as they are lightly-raced and not particularly ground dependent.

Moving away from the handicapc, the Champion Bumper has turned into a Willie Mullins-benefit and probably will be again this year but I was impressed with Modus and he could give us a run at 10-1. He was bred for the flat and has the useful combination of class and speed.

I suppose it is wrong to be put off by a horse falling at home but RSA Chase Ballycasey hardly inspires confidence after his weekend tumble. I think the bookmakers may have underestimated O’Faolains Boy after his Ascot victory. 16-1 seems a big price for a Reynoldstown winner and Rebecca Curtis would not be sending him there unless she rates him.

The going is drying out slowly so it may go against the proven soft ground horses. That includes Kaylif Aramis in the Coral Cup so we may pass him over for the time being.

County Hurdle – Cheltenian at 14-1 Sportingbet

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca at 16-1 Totesport, Betfred

Champion Bumper – Modus at 10-1 Bet365, Coral

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy at 16-1 Ladbrokes

Imperial Cup Preview

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Sandown’s Imperial Cup has become a qualifier for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham this season with several of the leading fancies needing to win to earn a place in the Cheltenham field. It is a decent prize in itself with £70,000 in prize money but the focus of attention this year is supposed “handicap good thing”, Regal Encore.

The gelding was bought by JP McManus after an impressive bumper victory and finished second at the Cheltenham festival last year. Anthony Honeyball’s six-year-old got off the mark over hurdles at Plumpton but was then surprisingly beaten by 66-1 chance Seeyouatmidnight at Hexham. Connections must have been scratching their heads after that but the run was clearly better than they first thought.

Seeyouatmidnight has since won two races, the most recent being the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock. The gelding’s victims included Celestial Halo, runner-up in the World Hurdle last season. There is a world of difference between a two-mile novice at Hexham and a three-mile Grade 2 event but Regal Encore would appear to be leniently treated on 130 with Seeyouatmidnight now on 155.

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers have put Regal Encore in at around 3-1 favourite and he could be shorter if the field cuts up. Other Cheltenham hopefuls include Lac Fontana and New Year’s Eve. You could not help but be impressed with Lac Fontana at Cheltenham last time as he eased clear of Totalise in heavy ground. I have no idea what happened on his previous start when he was fourth and last behind The Liquidator. The handicapper has shoved him up 12lbs though and that could stop him here.

Swing Bowler ran a really nice race in the Betfair Hurdle after a lengthy absence to be fifth. That looked about the best two-mile handicap run this season and she also has Cheltenham entries. New Year’s Eve is the unknown quantity here as he suffered his only defeat when well backed at Musselburgh, appropriately enough on New Year’s Day! Like Lac Fontana, I cannot explain what happened that day but he has won his subsequent two starts in a hood.

If the headgear has made the difference, he still has chances with just a 7lb penalty. However, the one to be on could be Vibrato Valtat. The grey absolutely laughed at his rivals at Exeter last month and must have had a stone in hand of runner-up Tigris. That horse fell at the weekend so we can only guess at the value of the form but he is fit and fancied.

Vibrato Valtat 13-2 Betfred, Totesport

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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With the Cheltenham festival now so close, it is no surprise to see a lack of top performers in action at Newbury and Doncaster this weekend. The exception is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase where several Grand National entries are put to the test.

The one that stands out is Monbeg Dude who was due to run in the Haydock Grand National Trial a couple of weeks ago. He was pulled out at the last minute due to an unsatisfactory scope. I believe that will prove to be a blessing in disguise as the race was run in atrocious conditions. It resulted in a 1-2 for Venetia Williams with Rigadin De Beauchene coming home clear of Emperor’s Choice.

Had Monbeg Dude taken his chance there, it may well have set him back for Aintree and he will be far happier at Doncaster. I fell into the trap of having him down as a mudlark after his wins at Cheltenham and Chepstow last season but he proved me wrong in some style last time out.

I supported Theatre Guide on the strength of his excellent third in the Hennessy Gold Cup and he looked to be travelling best for most of the race. That was until Monbeg Dude moved up to him approaching the last and made him look very ordinary. He has been raised 8lbs for that victory but looks attractively priced at around 6-1 on Saturday.

Michael Scudamore’s nine-year-old is clearly being aimed at Aintree but Paul Carberry can produce him late to capture this valuable prize. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Godsmejudge who I have backed at 33-1 for the National. The Scottish National winner can be forgiven his poor Sandown run as Alan King shut down his yard shortly afterwards due to a virus.

Emma Lavelle’s Court By Surprise is the early favourite after finishing second to There’s No Panic in the London National. The form for that race has been torn to shreds with the third, fourth and fifth all running badly next time.

Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup has attracted a modest bunch and I’m inclined to take a chance with the veteran Dashing George at 8-1. He is old enough to run in the veteran’s race earlier in the card but looked on good terms with himself when winning at Fakenham last time. He almost unseated his rider at the first but settled into a good rhythm and a similar effort might prove good enough against some in-and-out performers.

Monbeg Dude at 6-1 Bet Victor (Grimthorpe Chase)

Dashing George at 8-1 Paddy Power (Greatwood Gold Cup)

Cheltenham ante-post update

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With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet

UAE Oaks Preview

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It’s another Thursday at Meydan and the previous meetings have been quite kind to us. Ihtimal is the star performer on show as she aims to follow up her UAE 1000 Guineas victory in the UAE Oaks.

Regular followers of this column will know that Ihtimal has provided us with some profitable days already in her short career and we’re already on for the Guineas this summer. It was no surprise to see her outclass her rivals at Meydan but it’s always good to see that a filly has trained on.

Saeed bin Suroor had no hesitation in naming Ihtimal as his best classic filly and she steps up to nine furlongs tomorrow for the first time. She finishes her races so strongly that you can easily see her staying the Oaks trip.

There seems no reason why any of those that finished behind her last time should get any closer. Mensoora, Feedyah and Magrooma were all well held and I’d be very confident of a similar result tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see how Wednaan runs in the previous race after his promising third behind Long John. The winner was very impressive that day but Wednaan was having only his second race after winning at Yarmouth as a two-year-old and can step up on that performance here.

Most of the attention is focussed on the up-coming Cheltenham festival and the weights were published today for the eleven handicaps. There are more than 1,000 entries so that is going to take a good few hours to unravel!

Medinas gave me a thrilling 40-1 win in the Coral Cup last year but won’t be going for a repeat after being allocated 11st 12lb. He’s only the size of a pony and Alan King quickly decided that he may as well hunt round in the World Hurdle and see if he can pick up some place money.

The early “talking horses” are the JP McManus pair of Regal Encore and Pendra. Regal Encore looks as though he will be going for the Imperial Cup to try and get a penalty to get in at the festival. His defeat at Plumpton looks better in view of the winner’s subsequent victory at Haydock but I cannot believe Bet365 are offering only 7-2 about him for the Martin Pipe Hurdle.

Charlie Longsdon has named Pendra as his best chance of the meeting and announced that he had “protected his handicap mark”. Not surprisingly he is now among the favourites for the novices handicap on the opening day but he’s not one for me.

Ihtimal

Wednaan

JLT Novices Chase Preview

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It’s been a tough week for Nicky Henderson with having to finally call time on attempts to get Sprinter Sacre to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Chase crown. He was always fighting a losing battle and there is no doubt that there is a sense of relief at having made the decision.

He has been outlining plans for the rest of his festival team and it is interesting to read his comments. Obviously the big two are Bobs Worth (Gold Cup) and My Tent Or Yours (Champion Hurdle) but the two that he appears most hopeful about are Oscar Whisky and Dawalan.

Oscar Whisky is a regular visitor to Cheltenham but he has disappointed in the past two World Hurdles. The general consensus is that he did not stay the three miles and Henderson has finally accepted that he is a two and a half mile horse. He has switched to fences this season and has not impressed everyone despite winning three of his four starts.

He was narrowly defeated by Taquin De Seuil in a slowly run race in November but gained revenge on that horse on New Year’s Day. On both occasions he was left to make most of the running, not necessarily ideal for a horse that usually delivered a late run over hurdles. In between those two races he beat Wonderful Charm by half a length in receipt of 8lbs.

His last race seems to have done him more harm than good as far as punters are concerned. The valuable Scilly Isles fell into his lap against just two rivals but it took place on heavy ground and he seemed to make heavy weather of it. My instinct is to ignore that run and base his chances on his previous outings over course and distance on decent ground. At 10-1 with Ladbrokes he looks cracking each-way value.

Dawalan has done enough to run in the Triumph Hurdle but Henderson has always felt that he was not good enough and is an ideal sort for the Fred Winter. He has won his last two races and was also a fair fourth behind Calipto and Activial at Newbury. That form now looks exceptional but he will presumably be weighted accordingly.

The betting for the Fred Winter includes names like Ivan Grozny, Pearl Castle, Plinth and Tiger Roll. Some, if not all of those will be running in the Triumph. I’m happy to take the early 10-1 as he will be shorter when the declarations are made.

Oscar Whisky at 10-1 (JLT Novices Chase) Ladbrokes

Dawalan at 10-1 (Fred Winter) Paddy Power, William Hill