Tag: Ihtimal

Epsom Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is Oaks day on Friday at Epsom and the supporting card provides plenty of additional interest. Ihtimal carries our hopes in the classic with our 20-1 ante-post selection down to less than half of those odds. I still believe she is excellent each-way value at around 10-1 and expect to see her price shorten before the off.

The support for Marvellous has meant that Taghrooda has eased out to 4-1 and she is my idea of the biggest threat to the Godolphin filly. John Gosden suffered a near-miss with Kingman in the 2000 Guineas before gaining compensation in Ireland and he has another live classic contender here. She may ease out towards 5-1 and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t make the frame.

Thistle Bird is a great favourite of the Roger Charlton stable and she can bounce back to form in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes. She won this prize 12 months ago and looked as though she needed the outing when only sixth at York last time. Frankie Dettori was not hard on her once her chance had gone and I expect the mare to gain revenge on Odeliz and Mango Diva who both finished ahead of her that day.

Tres Coronas did us a favour when winning at Chester last month and again ran well behind Clever Cookie at York. His handicap mark has risen as a result and I just prefer the bottom weight Air Pilot in the second race at 2.10. Ralph Beckett’s horse has had only three starts but looked value for more last time when he hit the front too soon.

Gregorian is the best on form in the Diomed Stakes but I am just put off by his lack of a recent outing. He usually goes well fresh but French Navy and Windhoek may have a fitness advantage in a tricky little contest. I just feel that French Navy offers better value at 9-2 than Gregorian at 5-2.

Abseil was beaten by the draw at Chester last time when his fate was sealed by missing the break. He did well to get to within give lengths of the heavily backed Here Comes When and should enjoy the step up to a mile in the 3.20. He has been backed ante-post for the Royal Hunt Cup so ought to win this if he is to justify that support.

Thistle Bird 1.35 Epsom at 3-1 Ladbrokes

Air Pilot 2.10 Epsom at 8-1 William Hill

French Navy 2.45 Epsom at 9-2 Bet365

Abseil 3.20 Epsom at 9-4 Coral, Totesport

Ihtimal 4.00 Epsom at 9-1 William Hill

Taghrooda 4.00 Epsom at 4-1 William Hill

 

Epsom Oaks 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.

She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.

Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.

Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.

I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.

Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.

Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill

Newmarket Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

After months of anticipation, Guineas weekend is upon us! I broke with tradition by placing two bets on the 2000 Guineas before June was out last summer and both have made it to the final line up. That is an achievement in itself but I’m very confident that Kingman can win the season’s first classic.

2000 Guineas

Our ante-post book looks remarkably healthy. Kingman was advised in this column at 14-1 after his impressive debut while War Command was tipped at 10-1 after Royal Ascot. The latter has been overshadowed by stable companion Australia in the build-up but his price has contracted significantly in recent days and it would not surprise me to see him prove the pick of the O’Brien runners.

I topped off our portfolio last week by suggesting that Outstrip was over-priced at 56-1 with Betfair. The grey has a great finishing kick as he showed in the Breeders’ Cup and a repeat of that performance would certainly put him in the frame here.

There are plenty of dangers, notably Craven winner Toormore who remains unbeaten. He could only beat what was put in front of him that day and is closely matched with Outstrip on Goodwood form from last season. I’m happy to let our horses run with adding any further investment.

Kingman 14-1*

War Command 10-1*

Outstrip 56-1*

1000 Guineas

A huge field of 19 go to post for the fillies classic on Sunday and our hopes are firmly pinned to the Ihtimal mast. My regular followers will know that she has done us proud in the past and I see no reason to desert her now.

Her victory in the UAE Oaks was very impressive, quickening clear in the style of a smart performer. For some reason she has not captured the imagination of the betting public and is still available at an each-way price. I first tipped her at 16-1 and then followed up at 10-1 last week.

I did consider Rizeena last season but felt that Ihtimal was more likely to truly stay the Newmarket mile. I still cannot see how Rizeena can be less than half of the price of Ihtimal. Miss France was bitterly disappointing first time out and Vorda looks like a sprinter for all the world. Tapestry and Bracelet are more likely dangers but I remain confident in Ihtimal.

Ihtimal at 16-1 and 10-1*

*Ante-post advice

1000 Guineas Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In February we advised taking the 16-1 about Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas and she is now a top priced 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Our regular readers will know that she has been a star filly for this column, providing us with four wins in her last five races.

I first noticed her running on gamely at Royal Ascot last summer and she has done nothing but improve ever since. The reason for her still being so attractively priced for the Guineas is probably her third place behind Chriselliam and Rizeena on her final start of the season. I don’t think De Sousa was at his best that day, riding her well off the pace and she could never land a blow at rivals that were still quickening.

Unlike favourite Rizeena, Ihtimal has already won over a mile and has the Epsom Oaks in her sights as well as the 1000 Guineas. I suppose it is easy to be sceptical about the value of the form in Dubai but she was hugely impressive in the UAE Oaks. She absolutely pulverised her rivals and is going to arrive fit and fancied next month.

Clive Brittain is one of life’s great optimists and has always maintained that Rizeena was more than just a speed filly. She has already shown that she gets seven furlongs well and should stay a mile but I cannot see her as a 4-1 chance or even shorter. Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always a threat but I haven’t seen anything run a better trial than Ihtimal at Meydan.

Miss France and Vorda have run poorly in the build up to this race and I’m convinced that the latter is a sprinter. It would be great to see George Margarson win a classic with Lucky Kristale but she looked a nervy filly last season and she will find this difficult first time out. The Newbury trial won by J Wonder looked average and I did not see anything in the Nell Gwyn to worry Ihtimal.

Finally, it was sad to hear of the passing of former BBC commentator Julian Wilson at the age of 73. Televised racing has gone through some changes since Wilson and O’Sullevan departed, very few of them for the better. He retired in 1997 and I dread to think what he must have thought of the BBC’s total capitulation in televising the sport.

Ihtimal at 10-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

UAE Oaks Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s another Thursday at Meydan and the previous meetings have been quite kind to us. Ihtimal is the star performer on show as she aims to follow up her UAE 1000 Guineas victory in the UAE Oaks.

Regular followers of this column will know that Ihtimal has provided us with some profitable days already in her short career and we’re already on for the Guineas this summer. It was no surprise to see her outclass her rivals at Meydan but it’s always good to see that a filly has trained on.

Saeed bin Suroor had no hesitation in naming Ihtimal as his best classic filly and she steps up to nine furlongs tomorrow for the first time. She finishes her races so strongly that you can easily see her staying the Oaks trip.

There seems no reason why any of those that finished behind her last time should get any closer. Mensoora, Feedyah and Magrooma were all well held and I’d be very confident of a similar result tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see how Wednaan runs in the previous race after his promising third behind Long John. The winner was very impressive that day but Wednaan was having only his second race after winning at Yarmouth as a two-year-old and can step up on that performance here.

Most of the attention is focussed on the up-coming Cheltenham festival and the weights were published today for the eleven handicaps. There are more than 1,000 entries so that is going to take a good few hours to unravel!

Medinas gave me a thrilling 40-1 win in the Coral Cup last year but won’t be going for a repeat after being allocated 11st 12lb. He’s only the size of a pony and Alan King quickly decided that he may as well hunt round in the World Hurdle and see if he can pick up some place money.

The early “talking horses” are the JP McManus pair of Regal Encore and Pendra. Regal Encore looks as though he will be going for the Imperial Cup to try and get a penalty to get in at the festival. His defeat at Plumpton looks better in view of the winner’s subsequent victory at Haydock but I cannot believe Bet365 are offering only 7-2 about him for the Martin Pipe Hurdle.

Charlie Longsdon has named Pendra as his best chance of the meeting and announced that he had “protected his handicap mark”. Not surprisingly he is now among the favourites for the novices handicap on the opening day but he’s not one for me.

Ihtimal

Wednaan

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport