Cricket: IPL Eliminator Preview

The top three batsman from each side are likely to determine the outcome of the Eliminator Final in tonight’s Pepsi IPL action.  The Royal Challengers Bangalore group of Kohli, Chris Gayle and AB de Villiers face off agansit the Rajasthan Royals trio of Ajinkya Rahane, Shane Watson, Steven Smith in a battle of high quality batsmanship that will ultimately decide who heads into the 2nd Qualifier.

The Last Time These Two Met

The Challengers have got the better of the Royals in the two meetings this year.  In the 22nd match of the IPL RCB easily chased down 130, losing only one wicket and with 4 nigh on four overs up their sleeve.  Despite rain washing out the second meeting, Bangalore were also in command after notching an even 200 in their allotment.  RCB have the form and history for sure.

The Teams

Royal Challengers Bangalore (likely): 1 Chris Gayle, 2 Virat Kohli (capt), 3 AB de Villiers, 4 Mandeep Singh, 5 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 6 Sarfaraz Khan, 7 David Wiese, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Harshal Patel, 10 Yuzvendra Chahal, 11 S Aravind/Ashok Dinda

The favourites have their number one relatively set in stone.  The only contentious decision concerns S Aravind and Ashok Dinda in the final bowling spot.

Rajasthan Royals (likely): 1 Ajinkya Rahane, 2 Shane Watson, 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Sanju Samson (wk), 5 Karun Nair, 6 James Faulkner, 7 Chris Morris, 8 Deepak Hooda, 9 Stuart Binny, 10 Dhawal Kulkarni, 11 Pravin Tambe

With the Royals well settled selection of foreigners the only position of note is at number 11.  Talented Legspinner Pravin Tambe could get a chance at the expense of left-arm seamer Brainder Sran.

The Key Players

Mitchell Starc – In years gone by when RCB had Gayle, de Villers, Pieterson, Taylor at their disposal it was obvious how they would use their overseas players.  Even when Daniel Vettori commanded a spot he never took bags of wickets.  This season’s different.  RCB now have a strike bowler capable of striking fear into the opposition, capable of late swing, a searing yorker and taking bagfuls of wickets.  Starc is that man, and the big left armer is set to finish near the top of the wicket taking charts for the second tournament in a row (he topped the World Cup list and is currently five behind Dwayne Bravo).

Ajinkya Rahane – The diminutive right hander is now one of India’s top batsman in all forms of the game.  Coming off an excellent test series in Australia and an above average World Cup effort, Rahane has scored 498 runs from 12 innings – the second best behind David Warner.  His composure at the top of the order is the perfect foil for Shane Watson’s big hitting and has served the Royals well in the IPL.  If Rahane can survive the Starc onslaught and go on to 50, the Royals will go along way towards wing this game.

The Match Odds*

Royal Challengers Bangalore – $1.57

Rajasthan Royals – $2.41

*Courtesy of Sportsbet Australia.

The Prediction

Royal Challengers have momentum on their side, and in our view the more destructive game winners.  It;s not often Kohli, Gayle and de Villiers will all fail in the same game, so for that reason we’re picking them to win by 40 runs or 6 wickets.

The Best Bets

If you’re looking for a batting smokey in the Royals outfit try Steve Smith.  The captain hasn’t had a happy time of it in the series but is at $4.50 to top score tonight.

Faulkner’s at $17.00 for the same option.  Worth a punt.

Cricket: IPL Qualifier 1 Preview

Ricky Ponting and Stephen Fleming enjoyed some epic battles as foes representing Australia and New Zealand.  As players, and as captains the two went head to head in all forms of the game, and they are now set to continue those battles as head coaches of two exciting IPL franchises.

Fleming’s coached Chennai since the IPL’s inception, he knows the format, knows his players and has put together an incredible overall franchise record.

Ponting on the other hand is in his first year of IPL coaching and has pioneered a massive change in fortune for his Mumbai franchise.  After losing their first four games the Indians’ have stormed back into contention and could surprise the slow finishing Super Kings.

The Ponting / Fleming storyline is a great sub-plot to the match which provides direct entry into the IPL final.

The Last Time These Two Met

The teams have split the two meetings in the Pepsi IPL.  In the first encounter of the season in Mumbai, the Super Kings chased down 183 with three overs and six wickets in hand.  However almost a month later Ambati Rayudu helped Mumbai even the ledger and chase down 158.

In terms of form, Mumbai probably enter the contest in the best space having won four of their last five to storm their way into the finals.  They are red-hot.

But, CSK lead the playoff head to head by 4-1.

The Teams

Mumbai Indians (likely): 1 Lendl Simmons 2 Parthiv Patel (wk) 3 Rohit Sharma (capt) 4 Ambati Rayudu 5 Kieron Pollard 6 Hardik Pandya 7 Harbhajan Singh 8 J Suchith 9 Mitchell McClenaghan 10 Vinay Kumar 11 Lasith Malinga

We can’t imagine that Mumbai will change their team that has won four of their last five games.  Although they do have Alex Hales at their disposal after the Englishman arrived on a short term contract.

Chennai Super Kings (likely): 1 Dwayne Smith 2 Michael Hussey 3 Suresh Raina 4 Faf du Plessis 5 MS Dhoni (capt & wk) 6 Pawan Negi  7 Dwayne Bravo 8 Ravindra Jadeja 9 R Ashwin 10 Ashish Nehra 11 Mohit Sharma/Ishwar Pandey

Brendon McCullum has flown to England to be with the Black Caps test team.  He’s likely to be replaced by Michael Hussey who had a run in the Super King’s last game of the season.

The Key Players

Lendl Simmons – Simmons has been immense for the Indians this season and just shades the unexpectedly successful Mitchell McCelenaghan as the key player. Simons has put together 407 runs from 11 knocks this season to back up his stellar 2014 IPL.  He is quickly becoming one of the most consistent batman in the format and another good start from him here could go some way in delivering Mumbai another win.

Dwayne Bravo – Bravo’s twenty wickets in the 2015 edition of the IPL idoesn’t quite match his 32 form the 2013 edition but they have been arguably more important.  Chennai have struggled to put together consistently big scores, yet they have still managed a competition best nine wins, and plenty of those wins have come courtesy of stifling bowling and fielding efforts.  Bravo in particular has been crucial with ball in hand and in the field.  Can he stop teammates Simmons and Pollard?

The Match Odds*

Mumbai Indians – $2.10

Chennai Super Kings – $1.72

*Courtesy of Bet365 Australia.

The Prediction

Chennai have all the big game experience and all the nous to deliver wins when it matters.  Plenty of their performances this season have been below par, yet they keep getting W’s.  That makes this match an interesting battle between stability and spontaneity.  Between consistency and red-hot form.  While we don’t think Chennai will go all the way this year we think they’ll take this one out by 14 runs or 3 wickets.

The Best Bets

Suresh Raina’s form is tough to ignore.  We think he’ll top score for CSK @ $4.50.

For Mumbai, there are safer options but we fancy Pollard to top score @ $7.50.  The money’s just too good to ignore, plus he scored 64 off 30 balls in the first meeting of the teams this year.

2014 Champions League Twenty20 Catch Up and Predictions

Diehard cricket fans would not have been as slow off the mark as I have been, and have undoubtedly be watching the early stages of the Champions League Twenty20 competition with interest.

The 2014 Champions League Twenty20 is the sixth edition of Champions League Twenty20. Despite a couple of editions being played in South Africa, this year’s spectacle is being held in India. The tournament features domestic Twenty20 teams from Australia, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and the West Indies.

After a three match qualifying process, New Zealand’s Northern Knights and Pakistan’s Lahore Lions joined three IPL teams, two BBL teams, two Standard Bank Twenty20 teams, and the Barbados Tridents (CPL).

Although the teams play for a huge cash pool, the tournament has generally failed to attract widespread attention. However, the 2014 Champions League Twenty20 event has featured some massive performances that warrant critical acclaim. Here’s the catch-up from the first few games:

  1. Kane Williamson – Williamson hit the fastest Champions League Twenty20 hundred. Off just 48 balls against the Cape Cobras (an attack which featured a host of past and present South African bowlers). Williamson is not known for his big hitting which makes the feat even more impressive – as is his latest decision to try bowling left handed (he chucks it with his right).
  1. Sunil Narine – Narine is essentially unplayable in Twenty20 cricket. This held true against the Lahore Lions. He enjoyed figures of 4-1-9-3. His first game against Chennai wasn’t bad either (4-0-9-1).
  1. Cameron Delport – Short but sweet. The Dolphins player smashed 34 off 9 including 7 boundaries and a broken bat against the Chennai Super Kings.
  1. Other mentions – Mitchell Marsh carting the last two balls off the game for six to help the Perth Scorchers win their first game. Suresh Raina scored 90 off 43 balls (CSK scored 242 off their 20 overs in this one). Andre Russell and Aiden Blizzard scored big runs too.

Predictions

Indian or Australian teams have only ever won the tournament and that looks set to continue again in the 2014 Champions League Twenty20. Yet, this year the Australian teams do not appear overly appealing. I’m picking an IPL team. They simply play so much Twenty20 cricket compared to the other nations and are familiar with the conditions and venues. Here are some other predictions courtesy of Betfair.

Top Run Scorer – Kane Williamson is already way ahead thanks to his qualifying form. However, there is no guarantee his Knights team will make the playoffs. Suresh Raina looks good but is only paying 2.64. I prefer Glenn Maxwell at 7.4 or Robin Uthappa at 10.

Top Wicket Taker – I can’t go past Tim Southee here paying 14. He already has 7 wickets in the tournament (again I didn’t check the specific rules of the qualifying tournament so be careful with these options depending on the bookmaker from our list to the left you choose). Back to Southee. He’s proven in Indian conditions and is likely to benefit from cheap wickets when bowling at the death. Worth the punt even if the Knights get eliminated.

Winner – There’s not great money on any of the Indian teams. Nevertheless if I was abetting man my money would go to Chennai just ahead of Kings XI Punjab.   Quick tip – If your going to pick one of these as the eventual winner, you may as well have them winning each head to head game and the final in a multi too.