Tag: Irish Oaks

Irish Oaks 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The whole complexion of the race has changed in the Irish Oaks after the late defection of odds-on favourite Taghrooda. Trainer John Gosden will now aim the Epsom winner at the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot.

Punters who backed the filly down to 1-2 favourite will feel aggrieved but the decision is that of owner Sheikh Hamdan rather than Gosden’s. He also owns second favourite Tarfasha who has assumed favouritism for Dermot Weld.

There was some question as to whether or not Tarfasha would stay the mile and a half at Epsom and I am not completely convinced after her second place effort. She looked as though she would run into a clear second but was all out to get the verdict over Volume in the final stages. To my mind, Luca Cumani’s filly looks the form horse.

She was kicked on very early by Richard Hughes and all seemed to be going well until she became unbalanced in the home straight. Hughes had voiced his concerns after riding the filly to victory at Newbury and Cumani arranged a special trial run for Volume prior to the Oaks. The much flatter track at the Curragh should suit the filly much better and she looks a solid bet to be in the frame.

Aidan O’Brien provides two of the likeliest dangers in Bracelet and Marvellous, although I am worried by the former. Bracelet wore a hood for the first time at Royal Ascot and held off the late flourish of Lustrous. She had run poorly in the 1000 Guineas and clearly appreciated the mile and a half.

Marvellous looks like a soft ground filly after grinding out an unlikely victory in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Ryan Moore was at her a long way out that day and it was a surprise to me that she started favourite at Epsom. She finished a never dangerous sixth and the going has gone against her this weekend.

It is difficult to see anything else getting into this and I am hoping that Kevin Manning elects to kick on early on Volume. She does not seem to possess much in the way of acceleration but seems to lack nothing in terms of stamina.

Volume 5.45 The Curragh @11-2 Bet365

Irish Oaks Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Irish Oaks on Saturday evening sees the reappearance of Epsom winner Talent. Ralph Beckett’s filly upset her stable companion (and my ante-post bet!) Secret Gesture when powering past her inside the final furlong to score decisively.

Secret Gesture has picked up a minor knock and misses the race, although Beckett had already hinted at the likelihood of her swerving the race in favour of the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Jim Crowley was on “the wrong one” last time but is back on board Talent here. The withdrawal of Secret Gesture has caused the bookies to shorten the odds on just about every other runner and they may have to sharpen their pens again shortly.

Alive Alive Oh is turning into something of a party pooper. After two impressive victories she was well backed to win the Ribblesdale but was pulled out due to fast ground. She was then reported in season for her next intended start and there are doubts about her turning up again on Saturday. With the heatwave even persisting in my part of Scotland it is safe to assume that it is the same across the water and it has to be good to firm at best.

In the event, the Ribblesdale provided Lady Cecil with the winner that everyone was hoping for so soon after the sad death of Sir Henry. It is difficult to knock the performance of Riposte that day. She missed the break but soon made up the ground and cut through the pack to win nicely. Following in her slipstream was Aidan O’Brien’s Just Pretending.

Riposte is 5-2 whilst Just Pretending is 14-1 and it is the disparity in the prices that interests me. Just Pretending had been placed in the Irish Guineas after being kicked on two furlongs from the finish. She was held up in the Ribblesdale, presumably because she was being asked to travel half a mile further than she had previously. Her breeding suggests she may be best at a mile and a quarter but evidently she gets a mile and a half well. I think she could provide some each-way value.

The French raider Chicquita is a bit of a puzzle. Normally I may have been tipping the runner-up in the French Oaks to win this but she is a bit of an oddball. She ran across the track and still finished second there but took even more drastic action the time before when running into a hedge rather than go straight! Johnny Murtagh has the task of keeping her from taking a diagonal course on Saturday and good luck to him. She has plenty of ability but I don’t want her carrying my money.

My second selection is a bit of a gamble in John Oxx’s once-raced Tarana. You can be sure that anything that runs in the colours of the Aga Khan is well bred and she is no exception, being by Cape Cross out of Galtres winner Tarakala. She won nicely on her debut back in September but has not managed to get back on the track since. I expect she will need the run but I’m prepared to take the risk at 20-1.

Just Pretending 14-1 William Hill
Tarana 20-1 William Hill