Tag: Irving

Racing Preview November 29th

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Our ante-post advice for the Hennessy Gold Cup was to go each-way on Smad Place and Many Clouds. I’m pleased to say that both horses are set to go in Saturday’s feature race at Newbury in a typically competitive renewal.

Denis O’Regan takes over in the saddle on Smad Place with both of Alan King’s regular riders side-lined through injury. The grey should run well and I haven’t lost any confidence in Many Clouds, despite his slight drift out to 9-1 in the betting. I am not a particular fan of Djakadam or Fingal Bay in the race with their limited jumping experience so I’m hopeful that we will get at least one of our runners in the frame.

Nicky Henderson has not had the best of weeks having had to admit defeat in his efforts to have Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig ready for their respective December targets. He has also admitted that he has been caught out by the soft ground with many of his top-of-the-ground horses in action at present. I am surprised that he has declared Triolo D’Alene for the Hennessy having frequently warned that the horse needs good ground. I tipped him last year at 14-1 but I’d be very surprised if he were to follow up this season.

Henderson could still have something to smile about on Saturday as Hammersly Lake can go one better than at the Cheltenham Open meeting. He was only beaten in a photograph by Roman Flight having travelled well throughout and he should go close off a 4lbs higher mark. David Pipe’s Home Run could be the danger as he was full of running when tripping up at Market Rasen last time out.

The Long Distance Hurdle should be a cakewalk for More Of That but I shall be watching the run of Shotgun Paddy with interest. He looks tailor-made for the Welsh National and this will tell us how fit he is for the Chepstow marathon next month.

Venetia Williams has her string in terrific form at present and is averaging a winner a day. The Clock Leary made a very impressive fencing debut at Ascot and runs in the 12.50 at Newbury on Saturday. The handicapper has lumped 12lbs extra on him for that win but a follow up looks extremely likely. Tara Road could be the main danger after winning on the bridle at Ffos Las. The handicapper didn’t miss him either and he is up 13lbs.

Over at Newcastle, I hope to see Irving get his Champion Hurdle campaign back on track after falling at Wincanton. It isn’t the greatest Fighting Fifth Hurdle ever run and he’ll need to win this if he has any chance at the festival in March.

Newbury

12.50 The Clock Leary @7-2 Bet365

1.50 Hammersly Lake @4-1 William Hill

3.00 Smad Place @10-1*

Many Clouds @9-1 Betfair

*Ante-post

Newcastle

2.05 Irving @Evens Betbright, Stan James

Cheltenham 2014 Day One Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cheltenham festival meeting has finally arrived! It seems like trainers have been talking about nothing else since the flat season finished in November and the action gets under way at 1.30 with one of our best bets of the meeting in Irving.

We tipped him back in December at 16-1 and he is now a top-priced 11-4 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He has done nothing wrong all season, other than perhaps one or two sticky jumps. That is a concern in a big field as he cannot afford to guess at one like he did at Kempton last time out. Nick Scholfield can hopefully keep him out of trouble but he’ll have to keep an eye on Ruby Walsh on Vautour.

The one I want to be on each-way is Gilgamboa at 12-1 who was only committed to this race yesterday. He won the competitive Boylesports Hurdle last time out and that was a great run for a novice. I’ve always felt that the gap between a top handicapper and a Grade 1 winner is a lot closer than it seems and he looks cracking each-way value. Better still, Paddy Power will refund your win bet if he is 2nd, 3rd or 4th as a special offer!

We’re on Dodging Bullets at 6-1 in the Arkle. I must admit that I am very surprised to see only 9 runners. I don’t fancy Champagne Fever at all at his odds and I’m leaning towards Rock On Ruby. I tipped him at big odds when he won the Champion Hurdle in 2012 so I have a soft spot for him. The small field is a great boost to his prospects as he has very limited jumping experience.

Hadrian’s Approach is a tentative selection in the Festival Chase at 2.40. Nicky Henderson has been quite vocal in his opinions on this horse but the big worry is his jumping. He has blundered away his chances here before and I’ll be hoping that Barry Geraghty can steer a careful path through a packed field. He does seem to be better in a smaller field but he’s worth a small bet at 10-1.

Glens Melody was value for more than her narrow victory at Warwick last time and could sneak into the frame at a nice price in Quevega’s race. If the great mare is in tip-top shape nothing will beat her but it is worth looking for value as she is now ten years of age and has not had a prep race. Finally, have a small each-way on Ohio Gold at 25-1 in the last. He was third last year and has been prepared by Colin Tizzard for this race all season.

1.30 Ante-post Irving at 16-1

Gilgamboa at 12-1 Paddy Power (money back if 2nd, 3rd or 4th special offer)

2.05 Ante-post Dodging Bullets at 6-1

Rock On Ruby at 9-2 Paddy Power

2.40 Hadrian’s Approach at 10-1 Unibet

4.00 Glens Melody at 16-1 BetBright

4.40 Ante-Post Foxrock at 9-1

5.15 Ohio Gold at 25-1 Skybet, William Hill

Cheltenham Ante-Post Roundup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s time for a final run-down of our ante-post portfolio for next week’s Cheltenham festival. We will be previewing each day in our regular blog with the best bets of the day but here is the state of play.

The tone of the meeting could be set by Irving in the opener. I’ve been an enthusiastic follower since he won at Ascot earlier in the season and he’s now as short as 5-2 in places.

Day two is probably the most important day of the week for our portfolio with 25-1 Sire De Grugy carrying our hopes. If he runs as he did at Ascot he will win but he has not shown his best form at the track in the past and we won’t be able to breathe easily until he’s battled up the famous hill! He is the highlight of a busy day’s betting with three in the Neptune (possibly down to two if Pipe opts for a handicap for Un Temps Pour Tout).

Thursday is the weakest day of the week although it has received a boost with the news that Annie Power is set to clash with Big Buck’s. Friday’s Gold Cup has plenty of interest for us with three likely starters (Rocky Creek and Dynaste may be taken out). King’s Palace is one of our banker bets in the Albert Bartlett and Le Rocher should give us a bold run in the Triumph. Activial is still not a certain starter but we are on NR – No bet.

Good luck with all your Cheltenham bets and join us on Monday for our preview of Tuesday’s card!

Tuesday

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Arkle Chase – Dodging Bullets 6-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Wednesday

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Thursday

Byrne Group Plate – Cause Of Causes 12-1

Friday

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With just two weeks remaining, it’s a good time to take stock of our Cheltenham ante-post portfolio. The news that Sprinter Sacre will not run in the Champion Chase is not really a surprise, given the enormous pressure that Nicky Henderson must have been under.

A horse can almost become too popular so that the public feel as though they own a share in it. I know that David Elsworth always wanted to run Desert Orchid in the Grand National but the risks were just too great with such public property. Hopefully Sprinter Sacre will return safe and well next season.

The plus side is that we advised Sire De Grugy at 25-1 in this column several weeks ago and he is now trading at around 2-1. We also suggested that Le Rocher (Triumph Hurdle) was too big at 14-1 (now 6-1) and the same applies to Last Instalment 6-1 from 14-1 (Gold Cup). Our long-range Gold Cup tips were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1 so we should be in the money somewhere.

Kings Palace 7-2 from 5-1 and Irving (7-2 from 16-1 advised) give us some great chances in the novice events while we have Un Temps Pour Tout (25-1), Red Sherlock (20-1) and Faugheen (10-1) in the Neptune.

The Champion Hurdle has never really captured my imagination this season with My Tent Or Yours, The New One and Hurricane Fly pretty well dominating the market. I like double-figure prices for most festival races and there hasn’t been any great value.

The handicaps are yet to be assessed and I don’t think it is worth spending too much time on them just yet with over 1,000 entries! I have a number of horses in mind but will wait to see how the handicapper treats them. I’ll then be seeking some early value to bolster our healthy looking ante-post book.

Bet365 are already offering NR No Bet on all 27 festival races and I think that is tremendous value. I hope the other firms follow suit shortly!

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Betfair Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weather is continuing to play havoc with the racing programme in the UK and it is not looking that great for the weekend. The bookmakers have not even bothered pricing up the Saturday races so perhaps they know something we don’t?

If the weather relents by the following weekend, the Betfair Handicap Hurdle is scheduled for Newbury. Last year’s runaway success for My Tent Or Yours seems to have put everyone in the mind-set that a smart novice is what is required to win this. Admittedly Darlan was travelling ominously well the year before when he fell but he was exceptional too. What a shame that his life was so cruelly cut short.

The “talking horse” this year is Irving, trained by Paul Nicholls. He is currently vying for favouritism in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and there is no doubt that he is pretty smart. Having said that, he is not exactly thrown in on 11st 2lb against some seasoned handicappers.

Although I tipped him when he won impressively at Ascot last time, I’d be worried about those that he beat. Prince Siegfried had not yet been shaken off when he fell and he ran deplorably next time. The third and fourth have also been well beaten so I don’t think we should rushing to take 7-1 in a race like this.

Having mapped out this race for Irving, you get the feeling that Nicholls was taken slightly by surprise when Irish Saint romped home at Ascot in the heavy ground. It is true that he expected some improvement but he won so easily that the trainer is almost obliged to run him here under a 5lb penalty. The handicapper has stuck him up 12lbs for winning that race so he is officially 7lbs better off here.

The doubts are whether he will be so effective over this shorter trip and on potentially better ground. I’d also wonder whether he will get such a free run here as they tend to go like a bat out of hell in this race and we’ve seen him struggle in similar contests. If the field cuts up and the going rides heavy, then Irish Saint would be a logical choice.

I was really impressed by Flaxen Flare’s run in the Boylesports hurdle at Leopardstown last week. I had gone through that race inside out and come to the conclusion that he was just too high in the handicap but he ran a blinder to finish second to Gilgamboa. The vibes are that the winner will miss this and head to Cheltenham but I have no idea whether Flaxen Flare will have a crack at this race.

Cheltenian has been through the wars since winning the Cheltenham bumper in 2011 and it’s hard to fancy him on the back of an easy win in an egg-and-spoon race at Uttoxeter. He did hit a few hurdles there and this will be a different kettle of fish if we get a big field.

With several trainers holding multiple entries, the sensible policy at the moment is to sit tight and wait for the next acceptance stage. The weights could go up and change the complexion of the race completely. Watch this space!

Ascot Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Irving (tipped at 11-4) gave us a profit on the opening day of Ascot’s Ladbroke Hurdle meeting. He may have had a race on his hands had Prince Siegfried stayed on his feet but there is no doubt he is Cheltenham material. Coral are offering 16-1 about him for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March so I’m taking some of that before it disappears!

It seems that nobody has a clear opinion on the Ladbroke itself with the bookies now offering 9-1 the field! We could even have 10-1 the field tomorrow until they move in to shorten up the favourites. I don’t see any reason to desert Dell Arca (10-1) whilst Flaxen Flare should also give us a run for our each-way money at 16-1.

The pick of the supporting card is the Ascot Silver Cup in which Triolo D’Alene reappears after his Hennessy triumph. Barry Geraghty triggered a few sniggers amongst the racing hacks when suggesting a rise of 3-4lbs would be fair after Newbury. The handicapper wasn’t fooled for a moment and has lumped on 11lbs tomorrow.

The French import was always travelling well that day and the result wasn’t in doubt from the moment they turned in. I fully expect him to run well tomorrow but I’m swayed towards Houblon Des Obeaux who is now 3lbs better off with a horse that he beat by nine lengths here last time. It’s a case of my head ruling my heart as Venetia Williams’s horse is also 13lbs better off with Triolo D’Alene for Newbury.

My concern is that Houblon Des Obeaux may have lost his form a little but the evidence suggests that he loves Ascot. He was also second to Rocky Creek here last season as a novice and looks good value at 4-1 with everything in his favour. Having backed Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National, I’ll be delighted if he jumps around in second or third before taking a break until the spring.

The Long Walk Hurdle has lost a lot of interest with Celestial Halo having to be withdrawn through injury. At Fishers Cross may have struggled to beat him here but has a much easier task now and it will be disappointing if he cannot pick up Reve De Sivola and Salubrious.

I cannot get excited about the Haydock card. The Tommy Whittle Chase used to be extremely competitive but this looks a poor renewal and is best left alone.

Houblon Des Obeaux 4-1 Bet365

Ante-Post – Irving 16-1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Coral