Wales vs. Serbia on November 12 is a chance for the home side to not only take another step closer to the 2018 World Cup, but erase the memory of a 6-1 defeat. Back in 2012, long before they shocked the world by reaching the semi-final of the European Championship, The Dragons suffered a thumping loss in a similar situation.
Bidding to reach the 2014 World Cup finals, Chris Coleman’s Wales travelled to Serbia in search of something special. Unfortunately, defensive errors before the 30-minute mark put the visitors two goals behind. A Gareth Bale free kick closed the deficit soon after, but a lack of ambition and attack, Wales went on to lost 6-1.
Same Players but a New Look Wales
On that occasion, a young Jonny Williams was watching from the dugout wondering if he’d get a run out. Now, four years on and with another World Cup beckoning, things are a little different. Williams is no longer a regular on the subs’ bench and he believes his country has what it takes to win. Not only that, but Wales have proven they can compete on the international stage.
Unfortunately, Serbia still look as tough an opponent as they ever were. Slavoljub Muslin’s team are a typically tough, well organised outfit and, so far, they’ve been faultless in the World Cup qualifying campaign. Currently sitting top of Group D with seven points, Serbia have won two and drawn one.
Although conceding goals has been a slight issue, Serbia have scored seven in three which is impressive by any team’s standards. Fortunately, however, Wales have been equally prolific in front of goal with a 4-0 win over Moldova being the best of the three results so far. With the bookies unable to separate the two teams when it comes to goals, it seems as though home advantage will be the deciding factor this time around.
Goals are a Given in this One
The outright betting line at Coral currently has Wales as the favourites at 11/8 while 21/10 is the price for a draw of a Serbia win. Over at SunBets it’s a similar story with the home side leading the way at 7/5.
With both teams showing they’re capable of scoring and conceding, there are two likely scenarios in this match. The first is that there will be goals. Now, if you want to take a punt (and it really would be a punt) on history repeating, Coral will give you 200/1. If, however, you’re a fan of money and don’t enjoy setting fire to it, a high scoring line looks like good value. Over 2.5 goals is 5/4 at bet365 and looks a possible outcome as does an 11/5 on a draw with SunBets.
Italy Heavy Favourites Against Liechtenstein
Over in Group G, Italy will be looking for a comfortable win when they travel to Liechtenstein. The landlocked principality isn’t noted for its prowess in the football world and, if we’re honest, are only a few notches above the likes of San Marino. But, for all their diminutive qualities, they’re in the qualifying rounds for the World Cup and will pose at least some resistance to Giampiero Ventura’s side.
After three games the Italians have been true to form. Seven points from three puts them level with Spain, but a goal difference of just three puts them in second place in the group. Much like Italian teams of old, the current squad is often content to squeeze out a win, but things might be a little different against Liechtenstein. Indeed, with 12 conceded in three and an 8-0 loss to Spain on the recent list of results, November 12 could prove to be a long night for Liechtenstein.
Italy Will be in the Driving Seat
In fact, when you consider that Italy held Spain to a 1-1 draw, and they were able to decimate Liechtenstein, it’s hard to see how the home side will come away with anything other than a spanking. The bookmakers’ outright odds are frankly embarrassing at this point with SunBets making Italy the 1/16 heavy favourites.
For any value in this match at all the best bets are in the scorecasts. 4-0 Italy is currently 11/2 at Coral while a repeat of the Spain result is a generous 66/1. Of course, there’s always the chance of an upset in this one, but it’s unlikely. Whereas Wales and Serbia will be competitive and may go either way, this game should be all one-way traffic in favour of the Italians.
