Tag: James Graham

Four Nations Week 3 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Will week three of the Four Nations finally see the favourites dominant their opponents?  Can Samoa scare a third straight team?  Will England’s point deferential struggle let their game?

Those will be the key questions being answered in week three of the Four Nations.  Let’s look at the two games.

New Zealand v England

The Kiwi’s shift venues form the beautiful afternoon sun in Whangarei to the closed roofed Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin to take on the desperate English in the week’s first game.  The game features and interesting test for mathematicians as they calculate the scenarios that will decide the Four Nations finalists.  At this stage, if New Zealand win or draw they are through to the final;  if they lose heavily then they need Samoa to get close to, or beat, Australia

Both teams met lady luck last week.  The Kiwi’s escaped a stern Samoan test and were fortunate to cross for a late four pointer to win the duel for the fictional blonde in the green dress.  England on the other hand got stood up; they narrowly lost to Australia thanks to a controversial final minute TMO decision.

Both sides have played some decent football in the Four Nations thus far.  New Zealand’s best was missing last week, but they have added experience to that side by reinstating Thomas Leuluai and Greg Eastwood to the interchange bench.  Isaac Luke will be better for last week’s hit out and he should be able to ignite the Kiwi’s play utilising the offloads of Bromwich and Blair and the rest of the hard running forward pack.  However, their susceptible backbone has errors in them and will need to be at top form to control the exciting English equivalents.

The geezers have shown that they have improved since last years World Cup.  In last year’s semi-final they suffered a last minute loss to the Kiwi’s and despite some reservations about their ability to close out games, I’m backing them to be right up for this challenge.

Key contributors James Graham and Gareth Widdop will look to exploit a soft New Zealand middle and error prone back three.  In Ryan Hall and Josh Charnley they have two World class wingers who could benefit from the pressure instilled on the nervy Kiwis.

I’m picking an upset here.  England by 6.

Odds

New Zealand $1.45

England $2.80

Four Nations odds courtesy of Sportingbet.

Teams

New Zealand: 1. Peta Hiku, 2. Jason Nightingale, 3. Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 4. Dean Whare, 5. Manu Vatuvei, 6. Kieran Foran, 7. Shaun Johnson, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Issac Luke, 10. Adam Blair, 11. Simon Mannering (c), 12. Kevin Proctor, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Interchange: 14. Thomas Leuluai, 15. Greg Eastwood, 16. Martin Taupau, 17. Tohu Harris, 18. Lewis Brown (one to be omitted).

England: 1. Sam Tomkins, 2. Josh Charnley, 3. Kallum Watkins, 4. Dan Sarginson, 5. Ryan Hall, 6. Gareth Widdop, 7. Matty Smith, 8. George Burgess, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. James Graham, 11. Liam Farrell, 12. Joel Tomkins, 13. Sean O’Loughlin (c). Interchange:
14. Daryl Clark, 15. Brett Ferres, 16. Tom Burgess, 17. Chris Hill.

 

Australia v Samoa

Samoa have been a revelation in the Four Nations thus far but I fear their energy may have already been consumed in their sterling efforts in weeks one and two.  They should be no match for the World Champion Australian outfit, but they could still influence the finalists based on the points differential calculations.

Australia have been forced to reshuffle their back;  Beau Scott forced out with injury and replaced by Josh Papalii in the run on side.    While Samoa have opted for a tactical change and bring in nightclub troublemaker Reni Maitua.  Expect the Aussies to be far too strong in this matchup.  The structured play and kicking game of Cooper Cronk should force Samoa into mistakes.  Of particular interest to a lot of pundits is the centre battle;  Jennings and Walker v Lafai and Leila will be brilliant to watch.

Odds

Australia $1.09

Samoa $7.75

Teams

Australia: 1. Greg Inglis, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Dylan Walker, 5. Sione Mata’utia, 6. Daly Cherry-Evans, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Sam Thaiday, 12. Greg Bird, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Boyd Cordner, 15. Robbie Farah, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Ryan Hoffman, 18. Ben Hunt, 19. David Klemmer, 20. Matt Moylan (three to be omitted).

Samoa: 1 Tim Simona, 2 Antonio Winterstein, 3 Tim Lafai, 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Daniel Vidot, 6 Ben Roberts, 7 Kyle Stanley, 8 Isaac Liu, 9 Pita Godinet, 10 David Fa’alogo (c), 11 Frank Pritchard, 12 Leeson Ah Mau, 13 Josh McGuire. Interchange: 14 Dunamis Lui, 15 Reni Maitua, 16 Sauaso Sue, 17 Mose Masoe, 18 Jesse Sene-Lefao, 19 Tautau Moga (two to be omitted).

Four Nations odds courtesy of Luxbet.

Kiwi’s Stun Dizzy Kangaroos (Four Nations)

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Four Nations got underway on Saturday night with a pair of captivating rugby league matches that lived up to the pre match hype and rewarded the huge Suncorp Stadium crowd.

In the showpiece match the Kiwi’s upset an injured and disorientated Australian team to record their first victory over their fierce rivals for four years.  That match followed a Samoa / England curtain raiser that defied the tag to deliver a contest befitting of its own feature.

The Four Nations is now much more than a one horse race; the Australians look vulnerable.

Australia v New Zealand

In a match of high drama but little quality New Zealand exploited some Australian rustiness to surprise the Rugby League World and win 30-18.  Australia, already without a number of key players also lost Daly Cherry Evans and Greg Inglis half way through the game to injury and illness.  The injuries turned the Australian into rabbles. Robbie Farah and Cameron Smith jumped between hooker and the haves, Dylan Walker made a number of errors filling in at fullback, and Aidan Guerra couldn’t stop the Kangaroo’s frail defence when he moved into the centres.  The changes were too much for the Australians; their completion rate suffered, and they failed to score a point after the 21st minute.

But the night belonged to a gutsy New Zealand side that, to be fair, weren’t without their own personnel setbacks.  The Kiwi’s responded well to periods of the game where they should’ve gone behind, should’ve dropped their heads.  The first was Beau Scott’s soft minute try, which was closely followed by Jason Nightingale butchering a try over the line.  Kiwi teams of yesteryear would have given it away, but Steven Kearney’s 2014 version responded brilliantly with tries to Kevin Procter and Lewis Brown either side of another soft effort from Greg Inglis.

The second half saw the Kiwis take advantage of more Australian mistakes and in turn play with a lot more confidence and enterprise.  The offloads of Jesse Bromwich and Adam Blair allowed the likes of Shaun Johnson and Keiran Foran to run at a broken defensive line to make the inroads which stretched the lead.  Dean Whare, Shaun Johnson and Jason Nightingale all crossed the line to extend the winning margin to the biggest win over their rivals since the 24-0 win in the 2005 Four Nations final.

The Kiwi’s will take a heap of confidence from their dazzling display, and will take heart in the fact that the rest of the tournament is to be played on home soil.  The win should also galvanise the belief in a number of squad members who had yet to experience a wine against the Kangaroos.

England v Samoa

As the beaten semi-finalists at last years Rugby League World Cup England should have been too strong for the tournament debutants, however they only narrowly avoided a shock loss to Samoa.  Samoa’s stirring effort in going down 26-32 proved their inclusion in the Four Nations was justified.  Feeding off a passionate Samoan based crowd the NRL-packed Samoan line up tested their more favoured opponents and even lead by 2 with 19 minutes remaining.  England did just enough; led by outstanding talisman James Graham and experienced pivot Gareth Widdop they were ultimately too strong.

The English exerted most of their pressure through reigning Super League Man of Steele Daryl Clark who was a constant threat with ball in hand, while the Tomkins brothers (Sam and Joel) also combined well and both crossed for tries.

For the unlucky Samoan’s they’ll be better for the experience and will also get the chance to make adjustments to their side and reintroduce their suspended stars.  One such change should be the inclusion of Pita Godinet who provided a real spark from dummy half and kept his side in the game with two well-taken tries.  Frank Pritchard was immense too.  His switch of allegiance will add massive value to the Samoan Four Nations campaign.  Their efforts to back up their dazzling first up effort will be interesting to watch.

We’ll review Week Two of the Four Nations later in the week.

 

NRL Grand Final Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Forty-three years of heartache has been replaced by an epic hangover for Michael MacGuire’s Rabbitohs team after they demolished (on the scoreboard at least, the actual game was slightly closer) the Bulldogs in Sunday’s NRL Grand Final.

The win reduced Greg Inglis to tears and Sam Burgess’ face to smithereens, but crucially it ends a dramatic drought in South Sydney silverware. The game itself always felt like it was going in South Sydney’s favour. They dominated possession; completed their sets well; looked more dangerous with ball in hand (in particular centres Walker and Auva’a). They even crossed for a disallowed try before finally getting on the score sheet through punters favourite Alex Johnston.

Despite dominating, Souths did not take all of their chances. Things were actually quite tight and still 6-6 after 55 minutes until George Burgess scored. For what it is worth, I actually thought George Burgess was better than Clive Churchill Medal brother Sam in this game. George too suffered the indignity of a head injury yet still managed a huge workload in just over 60 minutes.

George Burgess – 18 Hit Ups for 200m. 3 Tackle Busts. 1 Try. 21 Tackles

Sam Burgess – 22 Hit Ups for 207m. 31 Tackles.

Other than some Tony Williams busts the Bulldogs showed little penetration in attack. Trent Hodkinson went missing, and Josh Reynolds confused the times to run / kick. The weight of pressure eventually told on the Blue and White’s; as a result they fell away significantly in the final quarter. Souths were able to expose some big holes in the middle of the Bulldog’s defence, past a tiring James Graham and co who were struggling without the fortification provided by Mick Ennis.

The Rabbits win is a fair reflection on a great season; a deserved NRL Grand Final win. The turnaround from the 2006 wooden spoon season is nothing short of miraculous. Granted, Russell Crowe has thrown a load of money at the club (and its rumoured James Packer will too if he buys a stake), but take nothing away form a clearly dedicated team who appear to like each other and get on well. The post game emotion outlines a deep respect for the club members, and is in stark contrast to the dressing room scenes described by Kevin Pietersen in the England cricket team, proving camaraderie can heighten performance.

The bookies won’t be at all surprised by the result of the NRL Grand Final. They would have expected to pay out on the Rabbitohs, and on Sam Burgess taking home the Clive Churchill medal. Of my predictions last week none of them were useful; George Burgess scored the second try (not the first I had him for) meaning some sites may have offered money back; Adam Reynolds let us down, and the Bulldogs couldn’t muster first half points.

Souths’ victory brings an NRL season to an end, however the Four Nations tournament begins October 25.  I’ll report back in closer to the time with some tips for the tournament featuring Australia, NZ, England and Samoa.

NRL Week Three Finals Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Preliminary finals time in the NRL means another exciting week of NRL and another week of potential bookmaker payouts.

The final four almost mirrors the table at the conclusion of the regular season with the only exception the Bulldogs making it through from 7th place at the expense of the Manly Sea Eagles.

After last week’s thrillers it is very difficult to separate the four remaining teams. Picking a winner this week could be tougher than dinner with the in-laws, and just imagine how tricky next week’s grand final will be too.

Let’s look at the games individually.

Roosters v Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs will lazily head to ANZ stadium as the favourites in my view. I say lazily as the week off would have given them an opportunity to put their feat up and watch last week’s nail biting from a distance. Although the teams have already met twice this year and shared the spoils the Rabbitohs have appeared more composed in their finals performances thus far. They closed out Manly expertly, whereas the Roosters have struggled with leads in bug games. Having said that the last time these sides met the Roosters targeted the Rabbitohs up front, in particular Sam Burgess. While some of their tactics were questionable (Dylan Napa was shoulder charging everything in sight) it did upset the Rabbitohs powerful forward pack.

There remain some question marks over Adam Reynolds’ finals caliber – Can he lead his team around the park as well as he did against Manly? Equally though Anthony Minichiello has mistakes in him, and Sonny Bill Williams has been either rocks or diamonds every time he’s carried the ball in this finals series.

Odds courtesy of Tom Waterhouse:

South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.76

Sydney Roosters $2.10

Rabbitohs by 7.

 

Panthers v Bulldogs

Some would argue that the Panthers got in the way of what could have been the greatest Grand Final the sport has ever seen when they knocked over the Roosters in week one of the finals. The truth is they deserve their spot in the last four. They play with passion and dedication. Ivan Clearly and Phil Gould have galvanized this club to the point where they are very much in contention.   In Matt Moylan, Jamal Idris and Josh Mansour they have three game changing backs who could run rings around the Bulldogs relatively inexperienced backline.

The Bulldogs on the other hand run most of their set plays through big Englishman James Graham. With his ability to mix brutality with deft distribution he can set the likes of Tony Williams and Josh Jackson on to the so-called defensive frailties of Jamie Soward.

Penrith Panthers $2.15

Bulldogs $1.73

Bulldogs by 10.

 

Random Tip – A multi on draws at half time in both games ($11 and $23 respectively).