Tag: John Gosden

Newmarket Wednesday Preview

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Newmarket’s Craven meeting gets under way on Wednesday. It hardly seems like five minutes ago that we were looking forward to Cheltenham and here we are looking for classic clues! It will take something spectacular to trump the performance of Kingman at Newbury last weekend. I tipped him at 14-1 for the Guineas last June and that looks pretty good value now.

The fillies dominate day 1 of the Craven meeting and last year Sky Lantern finished second in the Nell Gwyn here. Although she ran well, few would have expected her to turn out to be such a brilliant filly throughout the rest of the season. It may be optimistic to expect there to be anything of her calibre lining up tomorrow but I’m keen on the chances of the once-raced Folk Melody.

My regular readers will know that I am an ardent supporter of Ihtimal for the classics this season but Folk Melody could give Godolphin a useful second string. She won her maiden nicely enough and was going on strongly at the finish. She is by Street Cry out of that good mare Folk Opera so it is entirely possible that she will need further in time but is worth a bet at 8-1 here.

Godolphin can double up late in the day when True Story reappears in the Feilden Stakes. He holds some ambitious entries and did little wrong in his two starts as a juvenile. He was second to subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Outstrip before landing his maiden in good style. I regard Somewhat as the main danger as he ran some fine races as a two-year-old, notably when second to Berkshire in the Royal Lodge.

I also like the look of Parbold in the European Free Handicap. Richard Fahey won this last year with Garswood and Parbold has a very similar profile. If anything he has a better record going into this event so must give weight to his five rivals. It’s a disappointing turnout for such a good prize but that won’t worry Parbold’s connections.

My old friend John Gosden is winning with everything he saddles at the moment and has two runners tomorrow, both likely to start favourite. Provident Spirit finished second at Doncaster on his debut and can put the experience to good use in the opener. Munjaz was unlucky not to open his account here last year and can further boost Mr G’s incredible strike rate in the 5.10.

Newmarket

1.45 Provident Spirit

3.30 Parbold at 4-1 Stan James, Totesport

4.05 Folk Melody at 8-1 William Hill

4.40 True Story at 3-1 Bet365

5.10 Munjaz

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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Flat racing takes centre stage on Saturday with the Lincoln heralding the start of the new flat turf season in the UK and the Dubai World Cup meeting providing some top quality action from Dubai.

I must admit that I’ve never really been convinced by the Dubai World Cup meeting. It is too early in the year for many of the top stables to run their horses and has the feel of a private garden party for Sheikh Mohammed. However, I take my hat off to him this year as the card has much more strength in depth with at least three excellent races.

My methods for Doncaster used to be to look out for horses that were fit from the jumps. The going is usually soft (as it is again this year) and only the fittest horses finish their races. That is why you get horses beaten twenty and thirty lengths over a mile! The only exception was Barry Hills who used to love this meeting and always seemed to have two or three ready to go in first time out.

I’d like to think that John Gosden has a similar approach as he has certainly mastered the Lincoln over the years. He isn’t represented this year but he does run a couple on the card and they may be worth a look. Fencing has always threatened to win a big race and kicks off another campaign in the Listed Doncaster Mile.

After finishing third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy in 2011, the chestnut ran in the Guineas, the Dante Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes as a three-year-old. Gosden is the ultimate pessimist so he must have faith in the horse to keep him in training for another year. I’m worried about Graphic who did us a couple of good turns last season. He progressed through the handicap and ran a blinder in the Cambridgeshire under the near rail to finish fourth.

Gosden’s other runner is Romsdal in the maiden, by Halling out of a Singspiel mare. He may struggle to get the better of the street-wise Hymenaios who represents the Hannon Jnr stable.

Brae Hill was balloted out of the Lincoln so cannot add to his impressive record of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Don’t forget, if you backed him ante-post you get your money back. I would re-invest on him for the Spring Cup but trainer Richard Fahey suggested that he was not as far forward as usual this year so I’ll pass him over. Gabrial’s Kaka is our ante-post hope for the big race and should run well for the same yard.

If you haven’t had a bet on the National yet, Big Shu is still available at 40-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and is my best long shot. Peter Buchanan has been booked to ride so it looks like all systems go.

Ante-Post Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1

Ante-Post Big Shu at 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Fencing at 3-1 Paddy Power

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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The winter storms have been battering Britain over the New Year and Sandown’s Saturday card has been abandoned. Wincanton may suffer a similar fate and is subject to a 7am inspection leaving jumps action at Newcastle and all-weather turf racing from Lingfield.

I tend to lose track of the all-weather racing once the National Hunt season gets in to full swing but the quality of racing has definitely improved in recent seasons. Newmarket Trainer John Gosden is happy to support the all-weather through the winter months and has an impressive strike rate in recent weeks.

Gosden also shows a healthy profit to level stakes on the all-weather at the Sussex track and sends two maidens there tomorrow. Joyful Friend finished in midfield behind her stable companion Betimes here a couple of weeks ago and can improve on that effort. She is a daughter of Dubawi and was clearly unfancied on her debut, going off at 20-1 with the winner returned at 3-1.

Anglo Irish is a three-year-old colt by Dansili who showed plenty of promise on his debut at Kempton. He was staying on strongly in third after being briefly outpaced with two furlongs to run in the race won by Billy Blue. He shaped as though the extra quarter of a mile here will bring about significant improvement and his chance is obvious.

Rivellino was slightly disappointing on the turf last summer. He ran some encouraging races, notably when unlucky at Doncaster and York in highly competitive three-year-old sprints. His best run probably came at Town Moor where he was twice hampered before finishing a close fourth behind Moviesta. That horse went to win in Group company and could be competing for top sprinting honours again next turf season so it was a fair effort to get within a couple of lengths or so.

The son of Invincible Spirit got back on the winning trail under the lights at Wolverhampton recently, breaking well and taking up the running over a furlong out to win comfortably. He is up 7lbs for that victory but the opposition here does not look exceptional and he can go in again for Karl Burke’s stable.

The most valuable race on the card is the Coral.co.uk Handicap over a mile and a half and it may be worth siding with Modernstone despite being closely weighted with Grendisar. Modernstone got the verdict last time here after both horses came from behind but he still has room for improvement. A 13 stall is not ideal but he will be dropped in behind so it should not make that much difference.

Joyful Friend 12.20

Anglo Irish 12.50

Modernstone 2.35 @6-1 BetVictor, Paddy Power

Rivellino 3.10 @4-1 Paddy Power

Hong Kong Vase Preview

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For those of us who are already experiencing withdrawal symptoms from the end of the flat turf season, the December 8th meeting at Hong Kong provides a welcome boost. The Hong Kong Vase sees The Fugue bidding to gain compensation for her last gasp defeat in the Breeders’ Cup.

Jockey William Buick was reportedly in tears after being pipped on the line by Ryan Moore on Magician. I don’t think that Buick did anything wrong in the race, although he may have been in front a bit longer than ideal. It was just a brilliant performance from Magician who had threatened to be in this class when he ran away with the Irish Guineas.

The track, distance and going should all suit The Fugue and she stands out as the class performer. With all due respect to the majority of the other European raiders, they could all still run in handicaps whilst The Fugue is in a different league. As much as I admire the Melbourne Cup exploits of Dandino, Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Mount Athos and Simenon, they should not be able to live with Gosden’s filly.

The possible exception is Galileo Rock who was placed in the English and Irish Derby and the St Leger at Doncaster. The Epsom Derby form produced one of the worst records in recent memory but it’s hard to fault this tough colt who also likes a fast surface. What he appears to lack is a finishing kick but I could see him reach the frame if he is positively ridden.

The Hong Kong Mile also looks destined to fall into European hands with the brilliant Moonlight Cloud standing head and shoulders above her rivals. Sky Lantern and Gordon Lord Byron have both put up superb performances this season but Moonlight Cloud has been simply phenomenal. She first caught my eye when flashing home behind Black Caviar at Ascot and she has now established herself as a top class mare in her own right.

Richard Hannon Senior has announced that he is handing over to Junior on January 1st and would dearly love to go out with a winner. Sky Lantern has had a long season but won well at Newmarket last time out and you have to respect her chance. I’m not often tempted to do a double but 7-4 seems generous about both horses as I feel they should both be around even money.

Hong Kong Vase – The Fugue 7-4 Bet365

Hong Kong Mile – Moonlight Cloud 7-4 Bet365

Double – The Fugue @7-4, Moonlight Cloud@ 7-4 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview 25th October

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The curtain may be coming down on the flat turf season but there are still some good quality cards on offer this weekend at Doncaster and Newbury. Although the going will be on the slow side, both courses are flat galloping tracks with very few hard luck stories for beaten horses.

I recently tipped Richard Hannon’s Tea In Transvaal despite the fact that she was still a maiden after four attempts and she bolted up by six lengths. The same colours are carried tomorrow by Bon Voyage who has been beaten in all four starts to date and I am anticipating a similar result. The stable have always held this colt in high regard and he has been battling away well in valuable sales races. He will find Friday’s company a lot easier to deal with and should represent value at odds of around even money.

Betting in handicaps at this time of year is a risky business but there are some tempting propositions at both flat meetings. The Artsign Handicap at 4.20 features three progressive types in Zain Eagle, Ajman Bridge and Squire Osbaldeston. Zain Eagle cruised home at Doncaster before flopping at Chester under a big weight whilst Ajman Bridge was slightly disappointing at Newmarket last time out. Preference is for Squire Osbaldeston who won comfortably at Lingfield and has the scope to make a group horse next season. I don’t expect the 4-1 with Ladbrokes to last too long.

My bet of the day at Newbury is John Gosden’s sprinter Blessington who put up a promising seasonal debut when second to Intibaah at Ascot. He was racing off a light weight that day but beat off some seasoned campaigners and must have every chance of going one better on Friday. William Buick is in the saddle and he should pick up this prize on the way to better things next season.

It promises to be an exciting weekend with The Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and The Cox Plate in Australia.

(Doncaster) 2.40 Bon Voyage

(Doncaster) 4.20 Squire Osbaldeston 4-1 Ladbrokes

(Newbury) 5.10 Blessington 5-4 Coral

Kempton Thursday Preview

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Volume (9-4) did the business for us yesterday at Nottingham after a good tussle with Gold Trail. The pair drew well clear of the third so they should both make up into decent three-year-olds.

I’m switching to the all-weather tomorrow for the nap selection with Much Promise in the 6.10 race at Kempton. This John Gosden-trained filly lived up to her name on her debut at Lingfield when second to the useful Along Again. The winner was well backed in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot and was far from disgraced in third.

Not surprisingly, Much Promise was sent off favourite for her next race at Goodwood but things did not go to plan. Having raced keenly up front, she started to hang between the two-furlong and furlong marker and eventually Buick had to give up the ghost and let her finish in her own time, a disappointing ninth. The race was won by Valonia who has since been purchased by Qatar Racing and the form of the race could hardly have worked out better.

Remarkably, the next six horses home have all won since. They include Roger Charlton’s Stars Above Me, Clive Brittain’s Aqlaam Vision and Charlie Hills’ Coral Mist. My regular readers will know that Coral Mist has been a good friend to this column by landing two winning bets including a valuable race at Ayr last time out.

At the risk of over-egging the pudding, the tenth home Arranger has also won whilst eleventh was Fashion Fund who has run three cracking races subsequently. Valonia also hung across the course slightly and it was probably just the inexperience when passing the crowd in front of the stands that started the wayward manoeuvre. Much Promise may also have been inconvenienced by the good to soft going that day and I’m optimistic that she won’t repeat her swerve on Thursday.

The biggest danger has to be Mick Channon’s Isabella Bird who was fourth on her debut at Newbury. Amazing Mariah was not far in front of her that day and natural improvement will make her a big threat. Richard Hannon’s Magnus Maximus showed promise first time out but floundered in the heavy ground at Salisbury whilst Secret Hint is an unknown quantity.

Much Promise 6.10 Kempton