Tag: John Gosden

Ascot Friday Preview

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The British weather is playing havoc with running plans at the moment and there is clearly a lot of dissatisfaction at the 48-hour declaration system. Trainers have been moaning all season at having to declare horses without knowing the going. I don’t know the stats but there do seem to be an awful lot of non-runners lately. Both of Thursday’s selections were pulled out but I suppose that is better than getting beaten on unfavourable ground.

At the time of writing the going is reported to be good to soft at Ascot for Friday’s card. It has been raining cats and dogs up here in Scotland but presumably it is not so bad down south. Hopefully the going will be no worse than soft but it is probably enough to avoid those horses known to prefer top of the ground.

The feature race on Friday is the Listed Noel Murless Stakes and I’m going for York winner Dark Crusader to strike again here. He was confidently ridden on the Knavesmire and came through readily in the closing stages to win the valuable Melrose Stakes. He will appreciate any rain that falls and can beat the disappointing Greatwood.

Betting in six furlong handicaps is always a bit of a lottery but I’m tempted by the lightly-raced Blessington tomorrow. He raced only twice last season, winning well at Goodwood in a race that included Gatewood. I’m not sure why he has been off for so long and it is probably best not to know. John Gosden isn’t the most optimistic of souls when it comes to talking up his horses and he’d probably give this one little chance. Even so, at around 8-1 it could be worth taking a chance.

The last race is a bit of a conundrum. I put Gold Hunter into my notebook after an unlucky run at Doncaster but I’m not convinced that he wants it soft. He’s by Invincible Spirit and the feeling is that they don’t really like it deep. I’m also keen to have Brownsea Brink on my side because he seems like one of those horses that just does enough. He beat a huge field to win at Newmarket last time and 8-1 looks too big a price to ignore.

Young Oisin Murphy is all the rage after his remarkable four-timer on Ayr Gold Cup day. Andrew Balding has snapped him up to ride easy Kempton scorer Ballinderry Boy tomorrow in the Gordon Carter Handicap and the tip could be worth taking. The first two drew well clear in that race with the runner-up finishing second at Haydock in a decent race subsequently.

Blessington (3.05) 8-1 Ladbrokes

Dark Crusader (3.40) 7-2 Coral

Ballinderry Boy (4.15) 4-1 Coral

Brownsea Brink (4.50) 8-1 Coral

Warwick Thursday Preview

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Nabucco (tipped at 5-2) romped home by six lengths in the mud at Salisbury yesterday to kick off the week in style. The same combination of John Gosden and William Buick can follow up on Thursday with Willow Beck in the 4.40 at Warwick.

This tough and consistent filly chalked up a hat-trick of wins but has been beaten in her last two starts. She must have been a good thing off a mark of 65 at Yarmouth in July when she began her winning sequence and tomorrow she races off an all-time high of 88. It may seem strange to be tipping a filly that has been beaten in her last two handicaps but her last run suggests that there could still be more to come.

She had to be niggled along to get to the front approaching the final furlong and looked for a long time as though she would hang on. She was eventually beaten into third by Phaenomena and Astonishing, beaten a length and a half. The runner-up came out and landed a mighty gamble at Newmarket last week, winning a Listed race by seven lengths! I had fancied Gosden’s Phiz for that race after her fine run behind The Lark at Doncaster but she was left trailing by Sir Michael Stoute’s filly.

Of course it can be dangerous to take the form too literally but there is every chance that Willow Beck was up against a couple of Group class fillies at Newmarket and she’s worth a bet at 4-1.

Buick has a good chance of landing the Nursery at 2.40 when he partners Outback Traveller* for Jeremy Noseda. A mark of 75 does not look prohibitive for the son of Bushranger after making all in his maiden at Lingfield. The runner-up has run respectably in maiden company since and the extra furlong should see further improvement.

The draw is a slight concern but he popped out quickly last time and Buick shouldn’t have too much difficulty getting him up behind the leaders early on. There has been plenty of rain around over the past few days but Warwick seems to have escaped most of it with the going reportedly still good to firm. That should suit both selections perfectly and hopefully young Buick can steer home a double.

Outback Traveller 2.40 (4-1 Bet365, BetVictor) *Non-Runner

Willow Beck 4.40 (4-1 Paddy Power)

Salisbury Wednesday Preview

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Vorda (2-1) made sure that we finished Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting on a winning note. She looked very impressive to me and it will be fascinating to see how she gets on at the Breeders’ Cup next month. It was certainly a great week of trials for the 1000 Guineas and I wouldn’t despair if you have backed Rizeena or Ihtimal ante-post. Neither got the run of the race and could still make live classic contenders next spring.

After a quiet start to the week, there is some decent racing at Salisbury on Wednesday. The Conditions race at 4.30 brings together Justice Day and Expert who were second and third at Doncaster recently. With Figure Of Speech also in the field and all three having had busy seasons, this looks like a race to watch rather than get involved in.

One horse that should offer some value is John Gosden’s Nabucco. The four-year-old landed some nice bets when winning a decent handicap at Newmarket in June and was last seen finishing second at Glorious Goodwood. That was a decent effort as he had to overcome a wide draw and race more prominently than would have been ideal. He fought off all challengers bar the confidently ridden Viewpoint who is again in opposition tomorrow.

Nabucco is only 2lbs better off with Viewpoint for a length so it could be close between the pair but I just feel that Gosden’s horse will come out on top. If Buick can settle him on or near the lead without having to chase after him, he will tough to pass in the closing stages. Most of the field are well exposed with the exception of Andrew Balding’s Open Water who was a beaten favourite at Windsor in May. Paddy Power and BetVictor have chalked up Nabucco at 5-2 and he looks the best bet on the card.

Red Galileo is a nice colt and has been unlucky to finish runner-up in all three starts to date. He looks set to get off the mark under Ryan Moore at Kempton tomorrow evening with only three opponents. Mark Johnston’s Zumurudah is the obvious threat having won comfortably at Carlisle last time out but Red Galileo should have his measure.

Nabucco (3.55 Salisbury) 5-2 Paddy Power, BetVictor

Red Galileo (7.40 Kempton) 5-11 Betfair

Newmarket Day 1 Preview

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Grandeur (tipped at 5-2) outclassed his rivals at Goodwood yesterday to take our level stakes profit over the past 21 selections to 18 points (85%). Long may it continue! Doncaster was an extremely profitable meeting with winners on all four days and the Town Moor form is likely to dictate whether or not we make a profit at Newmarket this week.

The Cambridgeshire meeting is a curious mixture of exciting two-year-old races and tricky handicaps featuring horses that are just possibly going over the edge after a long summer. With that in mind, I’m planning to stick to horses with recent form and not with too many miles on the clock.

The selection for Day 1 has to be John Gosden’s rapidly improving filly Phiz in the 3.10 race. This filly was having only the fourth start of her career when beaten by The Lark in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster two weeks ago. My regular readers will know that I am a great fan of The Lark having supported her in the Oaks and it is not surprising that she had too many guns for Phiz in the closing stages.

You may recall that it was the race where Hayley Turner suffered a terrible fall after her horse clipped heels. Fortunately both horse and rider were relatively unscathed but another feature of the race was the performance of the runner-up. Phiz is still learning her trade so she was a bit on and off the bridle but William Buick must have felt confident approaching the furlong pole. He turned his head to see where the dangers were and got the shock of his life to see Jamie Spencer breathing down his neck on The Lark!

Michael Bell’s filly ran out a good winner but Phiz responded well to pressure and the pair were four lengths clear of the third. There are some decent fillies in opposition tomorrow and Lady Cecil’s Court Pastoral could pose a threat along with Sir Michael Stoute’s Astonishing. Some lucky punters have snaffled up 9-2 about Phiz before I could get this posted but 7-2 still looks good value.

I’ll be interested to see how Nezar gets on in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes (3.40) as he impressed me at York and again at Chester. Repeater (4.15) also went into my notebook with a promising run in the Doncaster Cup. If you like well-bred two-year-olds, how about these two newcomers in the first on Thursday; King’s Land (New Approach – Kazzia) and Touch The Sky (Sea The Stars – Love Divine). They don’t get much better than that!

Phiz 3.10 Newmarket 7-2 Coral

Goodwood and Newmarket 24th August Preview

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Although most of the attention will be on the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, there are plenty of decent betting opportunities at Goodwood and Newmarket.

Anyone who saw Glen Moss cruise to success at Newbury to land a gamble last weekend will be happy to support him under a 6lb penalty in the Heritage Handicap tomorrow. I tipped him last week at 11-2 and was surprised as much by his SP of 5-2 as the ease of his victory. The confidence behind him was fully justified and I cannot let him go unbacked at around 6-1 this week.

Frankie Dettori gets the ride with the jockeys spread far and wide and he should be able to follow the pace from his draw in midfield. I am always wary of the Johnston horses in these handicap races and Galician gave Glen Moss a beating at Ascot and meets him on identical terms. The grey filly has run twice since and I’m hoping she doesn’t turn up to spoil the party.

Equally as impressive as Glen Moss was the performance of Afsare at Salisbury last time. Everyone knows that Afsare is a character having refused to enter the stalls previously and also finished second in the Arlington Million 12 months ago. If he’s on song tomorrow they won’t know which way he’s gone.

My old friends John Gosden and William Buick have a busy day lined up at Newmarket tomorrow. Fledged has already been backed off the boards before I could get my copy “to press” so there won’t be any 6-1 left by the time you read this. He looks progressive and is obviously expected to complete his hat-trick on Saturday.

Willow Beck has a similar profile and won at the course easily recently. Taayel is probably facing the toughest task of the three but is open to improvement and holds Valbchek on his last outing. The trio are worth doing in a nice patent.

Glen Moss 7-1 Bet Victor

Afsare 11-4 Bet365

Fledged 4-1 Coral

Willow Beck 2-1 Paddy Power

Taayel 4-1 Paddy Power

St Leger Ante-Post Preview

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With the Epsom Derby form having been torn to shreds and the Irish Derby winner soundly beaten at Ascot, the market for the season’s final classic is looking wide open. Galileo Rock has retained his position at the head of the market by virtue of the fact that he ran on doggedly at the end of both classics to finish in the frame. He may well be the obvious form choice but he does seem a bit one-paced and must be vulnerable to something with a bit of toe.

Aidan O’Brien has not even left Ruler Of The World in the race with his belief being that the horse will be better suited by a drop back to a mile and a quarter after his dire performance at the Curragh. According to the market, Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is now exactly that for Ballydoyle. He certainly has the stamina for the race but he had to work pretty hard to shake off John Gosden’s Feel Like Dancing. The quality of the race is also open to question, although the runner-up has managed to win at Newmarket since.

Gosden may have a stronger contender in Excess Knowledge who should have won the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out. He made a belated seasonal debut at Sandown over an inadequate mile and a quarter and ran on after coming under pressure a long way from home to take third. That was against some decent older opposition in Mandour and Afsare.

Quite why jockey William Buick elected to hold him up towards the rear at Goodwood is a mystery to me. He managed to get himself boxed in when needing to get a run and it eventually cost him the race, finishing strongly in second behind Cap O’Rushes. The winner is no slouch having finished fourth in the Irish Derby, albeit as a pacemaker for Libertarian, but most observers agreed that the best horse finished second.

I was initially disappointed by the race but not half as much as the Gosden team as Buick returned in near silence. To be fair, Buick is one of the better riders and this was more of an aberration than a regular occurrence. He showed his true colours when riding a four-timer at Newmarket last weekend. I remember watching Conduit run a similar race a few years ago and he improved leaps and bounds by the time of the Leger.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes at York next week could tell us a great deal more about the leading protagonists. I am not aware of any firm declarations for the race at this stage but Gosden could run one of his Leger hopefuls, O’Brien has ten entries and Libertarian could make his reappearance. Excess Knowledge looks to be the one with most scope and can continue Gosden’s terrific record in the race.

Excess Knowledge 7-1 Ladbrokes