Tag: Kempton

Racing Preview Wednesday 20th November

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There is a fascinating clash between two very promising novice hurdlers on an otherwise moderate card at Warwick on Wednesday. Garde La Victoire and Gone Too Far are both on a hat-trick and have been impressive in their most recent outings.

Garde La Victoire was in front from the fifth flight at Aintree and held off subsequent Plumpton scorer Regal Encore by two and a quarter lengths. The runner-up was given a lot to do that day but Garde La Victoire kept pulling out extra on the run-in and is highly regarded by the Hobbs stable. He can keep the JP McManus colours at bay again here.

The all-weather flat racing continues in the background and I’m putting up Elysian Prince as tomorrow’s nap selection. Paul Cole’s juvenile was having only his second start when bolting up over course and distance in September.

That marked a considerable improvement on his debut when only ninth of twelve at Goodwood and he looks capable of defying top weight in the six-runner nursery at 1.00. I looked at Blessington in the 2.30 but his last run has left just too many question marks for my liking. Having finished second at Ascot on his belated seasonal debut, he flopped badly in heavy ground at Newbury in October. In all likelihood it was simply a case of his not being able to handle the surface but it is difficult to support a horse beaten 78 lengths on his most recent outing!

Graphic has done us proud with two victories and a place in the Cambridgeshire and I see no reason to desert this improving sort at Kempton tomorrow. He’s a course and distance winner and looked better than ever when sluicing through the mud to beat Breton Rock at Nottingham last time out.

His last victory came off a rating of 102 but the handicapper has now raised him to 110. That just about makes him the best horse in the field for this listed race ahead of Tullius (109), Sirius Prospect (105) and Bertiewhittle (102). Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Graphic tomorrow and he can be yet another for the prolific William Haggas.

Elysian Prince 1.00 Lingfield 6-4 Bet365

Garde La Victoire 2.50 Warwick

Graphic 6.30 Kempton 5-2 Bet365

Kempton Thursday Preview

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The flat turf season may be over until March but there are still some interesting betting opportunities on the all-weather. This surface is no longer reserved exclusively for the low grade horses and the top trainers are happy to run their late developing horses on it through the winter.

A case in point could be Jeremy Noseda’s three-year-old filly Havelovewilltravel who runs under a 6lbs penalty in the 5.50 on Thursday. The daughter of Holy Roman Emperor did not appear until the end of September when just getting the better of Checkpoint over a mile under Ryan Moore at this venue. She must have been showing something at home because she was sent off the 5-2 favourite and was confidently ridden, swooping late from off the pace to win by a head.

The runner-up won his next race by seven lengths, admittedly only a claimer, whilst the third also won next time out and the fourth was just beaten here last month. The handicapper took a chance by putting Havelovewilltravel on a mark of 65 for her next race, again over a mile at Kempton. She was well supported into 2-1 favourite but things did not go to plan under William Buick. She was slowly away and slightly hampered early on and could not get to Diplomatic despite coming home strongly.

Diplomatic came out and won again here and was unlucky not to complete a hat-trick when second to Sugarformyhoney on Monday. Havelovewilltravel came back here to win off the same mark of 65 last week and was most impressive. Once again she was dropped to the rear by Buick but she picked the field up easily between the three furlong and two furlong marker before stretching clear to win by six lengths. I am sure that the handicapper would like to have reassessed her a lot higher than her 6lbs penalty and it will be disappointing if she cannot win off this mark.

Anything trained by William Haggas has to be considered these days and Araqella could give the favourite most to do. She also looks well treated on her earlier form but disappointed at Wolverhampton last time out. The consistent Lady Sylvia and Wakeup Little Suzy will be thereabouts but I’m confident that Buick can deliver Havelovewilltravel late on to take the spoils.

Havelovewilltravel 6-4 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview 31st October

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Lingfield stages a decent card on Thursday featuring two well-contested Listed races. The second of these at 3.20 has attracted a field that wouldn’t be out of place in a Group 3 on turf with many familiar names on show.

Banoffee was a popular choice for the Epsom Oaks after she had cut through the field to win the Cheshire Oaks under Kieren Fallon in May. She was only seventh in the classic and has since lost her way with a couple of woeful efforts.

Phiz put up a cracking effort to finish second to The Lark in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster and I fancied her to go one better next time at Newmarket. Unfortunately she ran a lifeless race and trailed home eighteen lengths behind Astonishing! It wouldn’t surprise me to see her pop up here at a big price but I cannot support her after that lack-lustre effort.

Astonishing had previously been touched off in the dying strides by Lady Cecil’s Phaenomena and this is the filly that interests me most tomorrow. That was her first run over a mile and a half and she needed every yard of it to get to Sir Michael Stoute’s filly. The fifth home that day was Zipp who just failed to land a gamble in a handicap on Saturday. Whilst it would be a mistake to take her victory over Astonishing too literally, it was still a fine effort and she has a handy draw in stall 2. That should enable Paul Hanagan to keep her handy and kick on round the final bend.

I also like the look of Horsted Keynes in the handicap at 2.20. He was given a good lead throughout by Invisible Hunter last time and picked him off at his leisure in the home straight. He sneaks in off bottom weight and has most to fear from wide-margin Chepstow winner Favourite Treat.

Nursery races have proved quite difficult to pick this season but there seems no reason to desert Spiritual Flame in the 6.00 at Kempton. He battled on to beat Hiking here last time, a horse that is quite highly regarded at home. He is only up 4lbs in the handicap for that success and should go well again.

Horsted Keynes 2.20 Lingfield 13-8 Bet365

Phaenomena 3.20 Lingfield 4-1 Bet365

Spiritual Flame 6.00 Kempton 3-1 Bet365

Horse Racing 30th October Preview

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The racing is a bit quiet this week with some tail-end flat meetings but it hots up again this weekend with the Breeders’ Cup. Europe has sent over a team of 20 horses in total and has a good record at Santa Anita so there should be a couple of big prizes coming our way. The following week is the eagerly-awaited Melbourne Cup and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Dandino and Simenon give me a run for my money at big ante-post odds.

In the meantime there are still a few tempting wagers as the flat turf season enters its closing stages. The old saying about following a filly in form could be the way to go at Nottingham on Wednesday with Eve Johnson-Houghton’s Amulet bidding for a quick hat-trick.

The grey has won three of her five starts and likes to bowl along in front but her most recent demolition of a good field at Newbury makes her nap material tomorrow. She bounded from the gates and was always going nicely for Shane Kelly, never having to be shown the whip as she strode further and further clear in the closing stages.

Not surprisingly, connections have opted to turn her out again quickly under a 6lbs penalty before she is reassessed. The main danger could be Topamichi with Kieren Fallon booked to ride for Mark Tompkins. This one was beaten over a mile and a quarter at Sandown last time when sent off favourite and drops back to a mile here. I would expect Fallon to try to keep close tabs on Amulet but that may be easier said than done.

First Post won narrowly at Goodwood last time and has more to do here whilst Invincible Hero has bits and pieces of form but generally looks in the grip of the handicapper. With the soft ground in her favour, I’m confident that Amulet can complete her hat-trick.

Over at Kempton, I like the look of Never To Be in the Nursery at 6.40. The son of Thewayyouare had proved disappointing previous to his latest win over course and distance but he won with plenty in hand and can repeat the performance. He had previously floundered in the mud at Goodwood but is clearly a different colt on this surface.

Amulet 2.00 Nottingham 7-4 Coral, Bet365

Never To Be 7.30 Kempton 85-40 BetVictor

Kempton Wednesday Preview

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The weather has been having a big impact on fields this week with reams of non-runners due to the change in the going. This has re-opened the debate on 48 hour declarations but I am of the belief that it is a seasonal problem.

Many trainers are desperate to get a run into their horses before the end of the turf season but are not prepared to risk two-year-olds on very soft ground. The late defections are simply the price we have to pay for having the information to hand 48 hours in advance. I certainly wouldn’t want to go back to the 24 hour declaration system which greatly reduces the time for studying the form. Bookmakers would probably revert to pricing the races up on the morning of the race and I’m sure this would not be helpful as far as the online betting revenue is concerned.

For Wednesday’s selection I’m heading to Kempton and the all-weather. Godolphin’s Murasil really caught my eye when running a fine race on his debut to finish second to the useful Diamond Mine. The chestnut is a gelding by Elusive Quality and started at 8-1 that day under Mickael Barzalona. He was slowly away that day but travelled comfortably throughout and cut through the field turning into the straight.

He looked sure to win until Kieren Fallon galvanised Diamond Mine and snatched the spoils by a head on the line. Murasil lost nothing in defeat and will be even better with that experience under his belt. Godolphin also run Aalim who was behind that day and the disappointing Saddaqa who has surely had enough chances with four seconds.

A bigger danger is likely to be James Fanshawe’s Okavango (not to be confused with Ocovango who ran in the Derby and Arc this year). This Nayef filly was second to Fersah at Leicester in May but has not been seen since. If she is fit after 142 days off the track, she could give Murasil something to think about.

Sharareh showed something at Windsor earlier in the season and could reach the frame but it will be disappointing if Murasil cannot take this on the way to better things.

Murasil (Kempton 8.40)

Kempton Thursday Preview

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Volume (9-4) did the business for us yesterday at Nottingham after a good tussle with Gold Trail. The pair drew well clear of the third so they should both make up into decent three-year-olds.

I’m switching to the all-weather tomorrow for the nap selection with Much Promise in the 6.10 race at Kempton. This John Gosden-trained filly lived up to her name on her debut at Lingfield when second to the useful Along Again. The winner was well backed in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot and was far from disgraced in third.

Not surprisingly, Much Promise was sent off favourite for her next race at Goodwood but things did not go to plan. Having raced keenly up front, she started to hang between the two-furlong and furlong marker and eventually Buick had to give up the ghost and let her finish in her own time, a disappointing ninth. The race was won by Valonia who has since been purchased by Qatar Racing and the form of the race could hardly have worked out better.

Remarkably, the next six horses home have all won since. They include Roger Charlton’s Stars Above Me, Clive Brittain’s Aqlaam Vision and Charlie Hills’ Coral Mist. My regular readers will know that Coral Mist has been a good friend to this column by landing two winning bets including a valuable race at Ayr last time out.

At the risk of over-egging the pudding, the tenth home Arranger has also won whilst eleventh was Fashion Fund who has run three cracking races subsequently. Valonia also hung across the course slightly and it was probably just the inexperience when passing the crowd in front of the stands that started the wayward manoeuvre. Much Promise may also have been inconvenienced by the good to soft going that day and I’m optimistic that she won’t repeat her swerve on Thursday.

The biggest danger has to be Mick Channon’s Isabella Bird who was fourth on her debut at Newbury. Amazing Mariah was not far in front of her that day and natural improvement will make her a big threat. Richard Hannon’s Magnus Maximus showed promise first time out but floundered in the heavy ground at Salisbury whilst Secret Hint is an unknown quantity.

Much Promise 6.10 Kempton