Tag: Lord Windermere

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

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A large field is set to go to post for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, the feature event of the festival. Rank outsider River Choice is a possible absentee but that would still leave 17 to face the starter.

Silviniaco Conti has been favourite for most of the season and it is surprising that bookmakers are offering as high as 5-1 about the gelding. It is true that he has been beaten in this race twice before, falling in 2013 and fading in the final 150 yards to finish fourth last year. Trainer Paul Nicholls is confident that he has him in perfect condition and a Wednesday treble for the stable has boosted confidence still further.

We tipped Djakadam at 16-1 in our ante-post preview and it looks as though he could start at around half that price. The bare form of his Thyestes Chase victory is not good enough to win this but he has bags of potential and hails from the in-form Mullins stable.

Lord Windermere and Holywell are our next best as they both tend to peak in the spring. Lord Windermere has won the RSA Chase and Gold Cup on his last two visits and he has done enough this year to suggest he can finish in the money at least. Davy Russell rides this course superbly and reminded everyone of that with a double on Wednesday.

I am not convinced that Many Clouds and Road To Riches will enjoy the conditions. There were some fast times on Thursday, notably from Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase, and both horses have shown their best form with plenty of give in the ground. I am not a fan of novices running in the Gold Cup, although Coneygree does jump like an old pro. Good luck to the Mark Bradstock team with their ambitious tilt at the top prize in steeplechasing. Carlingford Lough will come in for support as he is the last ride in the race for Tony McCoy. He jumped poorly here last season and I have my reservations about him.

There is usually a good run from an old stager in the Gold Cup and there are several likely suspects this year. Hardly anyone has mentioned 2013 winner Bobs Worth so there is absolutely no pressure on Barry Geraghty’s mount while On His Own has managed to repeat last year’s tremendous run but could be lit up on the day. And of course there is always The Giant Bolster! Second, fourth and third in previous years, could he have another trick up his sleeve?

Verdict

  1. Silviniano Conti 5-1 (888Sport)
  2. Djakadam 15-2 (William Hill)
  3. Holywell (11-1 William Hill)
  4. Lord Windermere (18-1 Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview

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With most bookmakers offering non-runner – no bet on the feature races at Cheltenham, now is a good time to seek out some early value. Bet365 are offering money back on all non-runners at the meeting and the other firms will gradually follow suit as the meeting approaches.

The market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been dominated by Silviniaco Conti since he recorded his second King George VI Chase victory in December. Paul Nicholls issued an up-beat report on the gelding this week, suggesting that he is in much better shape than he was last year when fading into fourth place on the run-in. He is obviously the one to beat but does not represent any great value at around 7-2.

Last year’s Gold Cup changed dramatically after the last fence with Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti swamped by three horses arriving late on the opposite side of the track. Leading the charge was Lord Windermere who is back to defend his crown for Jim Culloty. Having won the RSA Chase the previous season, he seems to be one of those horses that peaks at exactly the right time. I felt that he ran a fine trial when third behind Carlingford Lough in the Irish Hennessy and is worth a bet at 14-1 with Ladbrokes. He is as short as 10-1 elsewhere so the 14-1 may not last much longer.

I respect the chance of Many Clouds having supported him in the Hennessy at Newbury at the start of the season. Oliver Sherwood sent out his 1,000th winner not long ago so he knows how to prepare them for the festival. I did not get on him at longer odds so will not be rushing to back him at 8-1. Road To Riches struck me as a doubtful stayer earlier in the season and I have more regard for Djakadam.

There won’t be many Mullins horses on offer at 16-1 at the festival and he could not have won any easier in the fog at Gowran Park in January. With Ruby Walsh aboard, he can bide his time and see how the race unfolds. No decision has yet been made about Foxrock but he has run three terrific races in succession and may not get his favoured soft ground.

I don’t like backing novices in the Gold Cup so cannot see Coneygree featuring while Holywell is worthy of respect. He has won here at the last two festival meetings and Jonjo O’Neill would not be running him unless he felt that he was back to his best.

Tips

Lord Windermere @14-1 Ladbrokes

Djakadam @16-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Lexus Chase Preview

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The Grade 1 Lexus Chase is the feature event at Leopardstown on Sunday, assuming it survives the threat of freezing fog.

In the absence of any obvious rising stars in the three-mile chasing division, this race could well have be a good guide to the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Reigning champion Lord Windermere clashes with 2013 winner Bobs Worth, an impressive winner here a year ago.

When Bobs Worth scooted clear of First Lieutenant with Lord Windermere toiling behind in seventh, it seemed difficult to imagine the placings being reversed at the festival. There remains an element of mystery about the closing stages of the Gold Cup as Lord Windermere and On His Own (also taking part on Sunday) swept past Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth. Trainer Jim Culloty feels that the ground is the key to his horse so there has to be a doubt about him producing his best with the ground heavy.

Bobs Worth has not raced since and Nicky Henderson has freely admitted that his horses are all better for a run this season. On His Own has failed to reproduce that Cheltenham form, being beaten a total of 171 lengths in his two starts since. First Lieutenant has never quite shown that he has the stamina for a test in this sort of ground and a more likely candidate is Boston Bob.

He was a remote third on his seasonal reappearance but ran much better last time to chase home the race-fit Don Cossack at Punchestown. Lord Windermere was just half a length behind in third with Texas Jack fourth. Boston Bob has won on all types of ground and should be fit enough to do himself justice.

Sam Winner is admirably tough and has already won at Cheltenham and Aintree this winter. His battling effort to beat The Druids Nephew under a big weight entitles him to take his chance but he looked just short of top grade last season. He was a respectable fifth in the RSA Chase having chased home Smad Place at Newbury in heavy ground.

Carlingford Lough was sixth at Cheltenham and won at Punchestown in April. He is tough and consistent and could be in the money under Tony McCoy if he is sharp enough on his first run of the season. Road To Riches slammed Rocky Creek by eleven lengths in November and is progressive.

He holds several of these on that form including Boston Bob who has the best part of thirty lengths to make up. The bookmakers were divided on the merits of that race with there being a suspicion that the winner had slipped the field. We will know more about his Gold Cup prospects after Sunday’s race.

Boston Bob @5-1 William Hill