Tag: Lucia Valentina

Melbourne Cup 2014 – Runner by Runner Guide

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Flemington Race 7 (3:00pm) Tuesday 4th November

Admire Rakti – 9

Clear favourite since winning the Caulfield Cup and carries only a 0.5kg penalty here. Classy Japanese raider who was fourth in the Japan Cup last year and has drawn perfectly in barrier 8.

Cavalryman – NON-RUNNER

Godolphin are still chasing that elusive first Cup victory and Cavalryman is not out of it despite being eight years of age. Won the Goodwood Cup in July and was fast enough to beat Hillstar at Newmarket over a mile and half previously.

Fawkner – 9

Consistent grey who won the Caulfield Stakes before finishing a short-neck second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Sixth last year and has a major chance of doing better here.

Red Cadeaux – 6

Veteran of three Melbourne Cups, finishing runner-up behind Dunaden in 2011 and Fiorente last year. His prep races have been poor this year and it will be a major shock if he can improve his record.

Protectionist – 8

Trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and a big market mover following his fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Has not always been the easiest horse to train but has never been out of the first four and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Sea Moon – NON-RUNNER

A classy middle-distance performer in Europe and won the Herbert Power Stakes last year. Has been out of sorts in the build-up to the race will wear blinkers on Tuesday.

Seismos – 6

Regarded as the second string to the absent Dandino for Marco Botti and always struggling at Caulfield. Will need to hold his position early from barrier 1 if he is to have any chance.

Junoob – 7

Won the Group 1 Metropolitan for Chris Waller but did not enjoy a good run in the Caulfield Cup. Another with stamina concerns but perfectly drawn in barrier seven.

Royal Diamond – 7

Almost forgotten stable companion of Mutual Regard but the winner of the Irish St Leger in 2012 and a good performer in his own right. Has won on all types of ground but is unlikely to be improving at the age of eight.

Gatewood – 7

Was aimed at this race in 2012 but did not qualify and failed to settle in Australia subsequently. Has been revitalised by a return to John Gosden’s stable but drawn wide in barrier 22.

Mutual Regard – 9

Winner of the valuable Ebor handicap at York and a proven stayer with a touch of class. Has enjoyed a smooth preparation and is expected to go well for second season trainer Johnny Murtagh.

Who shot Thebarman – 6

One of three runners for Chris Waller and finished behind stable companion Junoob at Caulfield. Had previously won a Group 3 race here.

Willing Foe – 7

Beat Royal Diamond in the 2012 Ebor but has been lightly-raced since. Should get the trip but is regarded as Godolphin’s number two behind Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent – 6

A very ambitious raider from Roger Varian’s stable with no form beyond a mile and a half. Won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland last year but big stamina doubts.

Precedence – 5

Bart Cummings-trained nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the race. Started at 100-1 when ninth last year and will be a similar price this time.

Brambles – 7

One of two Peter Moody runners and has run some decent trials here and at Caulfield. May lack a turn of foot and a wide draw will not help his cause.

Mr O’Ceirin – 5

Not much to recommend this one, a doubtful stayer without a victory this season. Best effort when second to Moriarty at Eagle Farm in May.

Au Revoir – 6

Trained in France by Andre Fabre and ran a fair trial when third in the recent Moonee Valley Cup. Not the highest class raider from France in recent seasons and poorly drawn in barrier 23.

Lidari – 7

Stable companion of Brambles and a very similar profile. Tightly matched with that horse on form behind Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti but has fared better in the draw in barrier 10.

Opinion – 6

Another entry for Chris Waller and struggling for form recently. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute in England and ran well behind Junoob in the Metropolitan.

Araldo – 6

Only a length and a half behind Admire Rakti at Caulfield. Previously third to Junoob but connections will have been devastated to see him drawn widest of all in barrier 24.

Lucia Valentina – 8

Winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Was ridden from off the pace that day and unproven over the distance but should get a good position from barrier 2.

Unchain My Heart – 4

Comfortably held by several of these on form and a serious contender for last place.

Signoff – 6

Emphatically beat Big Memory to win the Lexus Stakes on Saturday and earn his place in the field. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009.

Forecast

  1. Fawkner 10-1 Sportsbet
  2. Mutual Regard 10-1 Luxbet
  3. Admire Rakti 4-1 Tom Waterhouse
  4. Lucia Valentina 7-1 Sportingbet

Admire Rakti tops final 24 for Melbourne Cup

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Saturday’s Lexus Stakes saw the final pieces of the jigsaw fall into place for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

All but one of the runners involved still held an outside chance of making the final Cup field and it went to Signoff. Shocking proved that it is possible to win both races in 2009 and Maluckyday almost pulled it off when second to Americain the following year.

There were 38 stayers still in contention for a place for the $6.2 million Group 1 race on Saturday morning but the final 24 are now officially known and the draw was made on Saturday.

As expected, Japan’s Admire Rakti (barrier 8) will carry top weight of 58.5kg after his brilliant win in the Caulfield Cup. Connections had briefly considered bypassing the race in favour of the Japan Cup but a 0.5kg seems entirely justified. The seven-year-old jumped to the head of the market after that win, deposing the German stayer Protectionist who went into many notebooks when finishing well in fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. The Group 2 Prix Kergorlay winner will start from barrier 11 and is the mount of Ryan Moore.

Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (barrier 9) is also popular with punters and he remains solid in the market following his brave second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting Red Cadeaux (barrier 15) is back for a fourth run in the race while Godolphin are quietly confident that Cavalryman (drawn 3) and Willing Foe (17) both have great chances of ending their long wait to win the big race.

There has been steady support for Ireland’s Mutual Regard (drawn 12) in recent weeks. The Ebor winner is trained by former top jockey Johnny Murtagh who only hung up his riding boots last season. Damien Oliver has the ride on this one.

Marco Botti is forced to rely on Seismos (1) following the enforced withdrawal of Dandino while Murtagh also runs 2012 Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond (6). The home team also have hopes with Chris Waller’s Metropolitan winner Junoob (7) and proven stayer Who Shot Thebarman (13). Confidence is also growing behind Lucia Valentina (barrier 2) who was third at Caulfield while Peter Moody saddles the consistent Lidari (10) and Brambles (21).

John Gosden’s Gatewood (22) gets into the field this year after returning to the UK following an unsuccessful spell in training in Australia. My Ambivalent (4) is unproven over the distance but is a classy middle-distance trained by Roger Varian while Andre Fabre’s Au Revoir (23) has sneaked in almost under the radar. The four-year-old son of Singspiel was third at Moonee Valley last week.

Ante-post tip: Mutual Regard at 20-1 (best price now 11.0 Sportsbet)

Caulfield Cup Review

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Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Caulfield Cup 2014 Preview

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The draw for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup has delivered a huge blow to the hopes of last year’s runner-up Dandino by pitching him into the outside barrier.

Craig Williams had been hopeful that the Melbourne Cup fifth would go one better at Caulfield this year with maximum confidence emanating from the Marco Botti stable. Dandino almost overcame a wide draw a year ago when flashing home in second from barrier 16 behind Fawkner. Everything has gone perfectly in his preparation but Williams will now have to ride the race of his life to get the seven-year-old home in front.

Craig Newitt faces a different set of problems aboard the stables other runner, Seismos. The son of Dalakhani beat Willing Foe by a neck in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and he has drawn the one barrier. Newitt will have to decide whether to try to hold his position on the inside or tuck in behind and hope that he does not get shuffled too far back.

Japanese top weight Admire Rakti has fared much better with barrier eight but this looks like a prep run for the Melbourne Cup. The two favourites to take the $3 million prize on Saturday are Lucia Valentina (drawn 12) and the other Japanese hope Bande (drawn 10). Lucia Valentina’s claims are obvious after her win in the Turnbull Stakes but she was beaten on her only previous start at this distance.

She beat French import Lidari in that race and the runner-up has sneaked in on the withdrawal of My Ambivalent at the eleventh hour. A fine draw in barrier four has further boosted confidence in Luke Nolen’s mount who is a proven stayer. There was only a whisker between he and Brambles in that race but the latter is only a reserve and would be drawn wide if sneaking in.

Horses that fared less well in the draw include Sea Moon and The Offer, drawn 21 and 19 respectively. Christophe Lemaire rides Bande with the intention apparently to race from the front on the four-year-old. Bande was only a neck behind Admire Rakti in a Grade 2 race at Hanshin in March and is marginally better off at the weights.

The Japanese were extremely disappointed at the failure of their strong raid on the prestigious Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and are aiming to restore some International pride with a big win in Australia.

Chris Waller saddles up four runners led by Metropolitan winner Junoob from gate 15. That draw may not be unsurmountable and he looks to have a better chance than Hawkspur (9), Moriarty (7) and Who Shot Thebarman (16).

Lidari @16.0 bet365

Bande @9.0 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet special offer – money back as a free bet up to $100 on first bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

George Main Stakes Preview 

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The Group 1 George Main Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday is set to be an intriguing clash between trail-blazing Panzer Division and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The last three-year-old to win this race was Viscount in 2001 but plenty of punters believe that Panzer Division will be tough to beat. Paul Messara’s colt was backed from 6-1 to 7-2 earlier in the week and receives weight from all of his rivals. The eight barrier is not ideal but I am more concerned with his lack of experience at this level. This will be only his fourth appearance and he is up against some well-established Group 1 performers.

The pick of them could be Lucia Valentina who came from last to first to beat Tiger Trees decisively in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes last time out. The biggest worry for supporters of the four-year-old is that she did not run well on her second start back last term.

Trainer Kris Lees admits that is a concern, especially with Lucia Valentina not being the most robust of mares. I regard Kerrin McEvoy as one of the best jockeys in the world and he takes the ride on Saturday. Assuming Lucia Valentina is fit and well, she must go close to repeating her Tramway Stakes victory.

The long-term target is apparently the Caulfield Cup, although the shorter Cox Plate could come into consideration if she performs well enough at the weekend and in the Turnbull Stakes. Lucia Valentina already has a Group 1 victory under her belt with the Vinery Stud Stakes. She is well enough drawn in barrier 6 and looks a decent bet at around 5-1.

Chris Waller’s Royal Descent is another Group 1 winner in the field and has run creditably in defeat when second in the Warwick Stakes and Chelmsford Stakes. Sacred Falls has been the best backed horse outside of Panzer Division and could even start favourite on the day. His recent races have been steady if not spectacular but Waller is anticipating some improvement. He has the one stall with Zac Purton flying in for the ride.

The best outsider is Teronado who is in great form at present. He came from way off the pace to finish second at Eagle Farm before winning impressively at Doomben last time out. Those races were in a lower grade but he is perfectly drawn in barrier five and should go well under Chris Munce.

Lucia Valentina @6.0 Bet365

Teronado @18.0 Bet365 (each-way)