Tag: Magician

Dubai World Cup Update

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John Gosden pulled a fast one by switching The Fugue from the World Cup to the Dubai Duty Free and has set up a clash with Dank. The vibes from both Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute are very cautious as you may expect for a first run of the season.

There is no doubt that The Fugue has the class to win this but if she is at all rusty it could leave the way open for the in-form Just A Way. Having tipped Dank, I am a little concerned to see her pushed out to 13-2 and I’m going to back The Fugue in the hope that she is fit enough.

The World Cup does not look the strongest renewal and it provides Ruler Of The World with a great opportunity. I’m not convinced that Mukhadram and Hillstar are really top drawer and I can see the potential for a shock result here. I’m going to side with Hong Kong raider Military Attack and hope that he gets a clear run.

If the field for the World Cup is slightly disappointing, the same certainly isn’t true of the Sheema Classic. Aidan O’Brien trained Magician brilliantly to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf after a lengthy absence and he looks a good bet now that he is proven over a mile and a half. Ryan Moore can scarcely have ridden a better race than he did that day and he will be in no hurry again on Saturday.

The danger is likely to come from two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna. Moore rode her to a nose victory last year and will be looking to outwit Joseph O’Brien on Magician. It would be interesting to know which horse Moore would have ridden had he been given the choice.

Our old friend Simenon runs in the Gold Cup but has been done no favours by the draw. You may recall he came agonisingly close to landing a 33-1 tip for us in the Ascot Gold Cup and was placed fourth at the same odds in the Melbourne Cup. He certainly doesn’t owe us anything so we can invest a few pounds each-way on him here. The in-form Cavalryman is the one to beat as he seeks back-to-back victories in the race.

I’m a great fan of Breeders’ Cup form and I’m going to have a small bet on Flotilla at 12-1 in the mile. Nothing else really catches my eye and she would have an outstanding chance if back to her French Guineas form. It’s the best overall card that I can remember for this meeting and should give us plenty of clues for the season ahead. I still rate Long John the banker bet of the night at 9-4.

World Cup – Military Attack at 7-1 Paddy Power

Duty Free – The Fugue at 7-2 Coral, Dank at 13-2 Betfair SB

Sheema Classic – Magician at 100-30 SpreadEx

Gold Cup – Simenon at 7-1 Coral

Godolphin Mile – Flotilla at 12-1 Coral

UAE Derby – Long John at 9-4 Betfair SB

Dubai World Cup Preview

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The Dubai World Cup at Meydan on March 29th gives us an early chance to see some of the star names in action. Last year’s Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World makes his return to action in a fascinating clash with The Fugue and several other International stars.

Ruler Of The World has not won since Epsom and the form of the classic suggested it was one of the worst in living memory. However, the colt did finish off his season by running third in the Champion Stakes and has to be respected.

John Gosden’s The Fugue was runner-up in both of her last two races, the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Hong Kong Vase. It was a frustrating end to the season for the mare after Group 1 victories in  the Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes.

Jockey William Buick was devastated when Ryan Moore swooped on Magician to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita but he should have several opportunities for further glory on the mare this season. I think she has the tactical speed to beat Ruler Of The World but I am more concerned about Hong Kong Gold Cup winner Military Attack. He had The Fugue’s Hong Kong conqueror Dominant three lengths away in third last month and arrives here fit and fancied.

The card also sees the return of Dank in the Dubai Duty Free. She had a fantastic season last year for Sir Michael Stoute, chalking up Grade 1 victories in the Beverly D Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. The big danger to her is the Japanese-trained Just A Way. He defeated two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna at Tokyo in October and a repeat of that form would make him very difficult to beat.

Magician is also back in action in the Sheema Classic over a mile and a half. He won the ten furlong Dee Stakes at Chester before winning the Irish 2000 Guineas over a mile. His only poor run came in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but he bounced back in style to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita.  He has Cirrus Des Aigles and Gentildonna to beat here in a race that looks every bit as good as the World Cup on paper.

Ryan Moore rode Gentildonna to her famous Japan Cup victory in November so he knows what he is up against. Magician looked a quality colt last year and can take this on his way to a successful season in Europe.

The Fugue (Dubai World Cup) at 6-1 SkyBet

Magician (Sheema Classic) at 4-1 Sportingbet

Dank (Dubai Duty Free) at 5-1 Coral

St James’s Palace Stakes Preview

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The news that Dawn Approach will, after all, be running in the St James’s Palace Stakes has created quite a stir. Those of you with long memories may recall a similar “will he, won’t he” scenario with Jim Bolger’s New Approach ahead of the Derby in 2008. He was suddenly brought back into the equation with some punters having invested at huge prices on Betfair.

The news that the 2000 Guineas winner will line up on Tuesday has certainly helped to raise the excitement ahead of the meeting. Coral quickly announced that they will be treating all bets previously struck as being “without Dawn Approach”. That was very smart thinking and shows how much more “punter friendly” the bookies are these days. It certainly has not always been the case so full credit to them for acting so quickly.

So what are we to make of Dawn Approach after his Derby antics? It appears that the possibility of him attempting to bolt during the race had not even occurred to his connections, such was their confidence in his ability to settle. Kevin Manning certainly wasn’t expecting it and had already decided that he would need to “get after” Dawn Approach quite early in the Guineas to get him into top gear. Was it simply a case of a miler running in a mile and a half race? I have seen plenty of Guineas horses run in the Derby but cannot remember any of them running as freely as that.

Magician was expected to head for Epsom after winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but Aidan O’Brien dropped him back to a mile for the Irish Guineas instead. The decision was rewarded in spectacular fashion and he looks the obvious choice. O’Brien still has three other entries in the race whilst Bolger has Leitir Mor entered as a possible pacemaker. A crawl would not suit either of the market leaders to it seems safe to assume that there will be a decent pace on.

Toronado was thought to be Dawn Approach’s biggest rival at Newmarket and it looked like being a clash between the two with a furlong or so to run. However, Richard Hannon’s colt dropped out very tamely and was treading water at the line. Connections are adamant that he is a lot better than that and he will presumably be tucked in behind the pace.

The French raiders Mutin and Mshawish don’t look up to top standard and Dundonnell has had his limitations exposed in the past. The verdict has to be to stick with Magician until he is beaten. There are just too many question marks over Dawn Approach.

Magician 2-1 Boylesports

Epsom Ante-Post Update

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The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview Monday 27th May

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The Bank Holiday cards offer more in the way of quantity rather than quality but I’ve picked out a couple of bets worth considering. The opening race on Leicester’s card is a competitive little handicap for three-year-olds over five furlongs.

The one that interests me is the top weight Secondo, trained by Roger Charlton. He is a colt by July Cup winner Sakhee’s Secret and runs in the colours of Al Kazeem who gave the stable a big win at the Curragh on Sunday. Secondo showed some promise as a two-year-old but really caught the eye on his first run this season when he made up late ground to win at Salisbury. He was taken steadily to post and restrained at the rear of the field and showed a touch of class to pick them off in the closing stages. I think he is up to defying top weight here and 7-2 looks worth a bet with Paddy Power.

My second selection runs over at Carlisle and is another promising sort called Danat Al Atheer. He is trained by Willie Haggas who is always prepared to take his time with his three-year-olds and this lightly raced filly is taken to beat Lilac Lace and Tussie Mussie who fought out a thrilling duel at Thirsk. Danat Al Atheer was given plenty of ground to make up last time but did it nicely. You won’t get very rich at 13-8 but she should win this on the way to better things.

We had mixed fortunes over the weekend but were rescued by Just The Judge, advised here at 100-30. She made up for the disappointing run of Sole Power and the withdrawal of Here Comes When due to the firm ground. The most striking performance at the Curragh was that of Magician in the Irish 2000 Guineas, landing some bets at 14-1 for those “in the know”. Trying to guess what is going to run where out of Ballydoyle often requires psychic powers but credit to the stable for dropping him back in distance.

His win also cast a shadow over the already suspect Newmarket 2000 Guineas form with Van Der Neer nowhere to be sighted. It is worth remembering that Camelot’s Guineas form was hardly sensational but that didn’t stop him winning easily at Epsom. It would certainly be interesting if Magician lined up next Saturday but the last Irish Guineas winner to attempt it was Saffron Walden in 1999 (well beaten behind Oath). For the moment I’m happy to stick with my ante-post bet on Ocovango at 9-1 but there could be some interesting developments in the market as the week goes on.

Secondo 7-2 Paddy Power
Danat Al Atheer 13-8 Paddy Power

Epsom Derby Ante-Post Update

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The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.

Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.

Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.

In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.

The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.

The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.

Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.

Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill