Tag: Mark Johnston

Goodwood Saturday Preview

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Red Avenger (tipped at 25-1) more than covered our expenses for Glorious Goodwood this week with a thrilling victory in the Betfred Mile. I must admit that I thought his chance had gone after a tardy start and he was poorly placed turning for home. All credit to Jimmy Fortune who somehow managed to get his head in front where it mattered.

As if the Mile wasn’t hard enough, we are now faced with the annual cavalry charge otherwise known as the Stewards’ Cup. Oddly enough, most of the recent winners of this race have been quite well fancied and I have two names for this year’s race.

Muthmir looked like a potential Group horse when winning at York last week. Admittedly this is a big question to ask of such an inexperienced horse just a week later but I am more concerned by his low draw. Dane O’Neill will just have to hope that there is enough pace on his side of the track, although several of the most fancied runners are drawn high.

Among them is Richard Fahey’s Alben Star. He was desperately unlucky in the Paddy Power Scurry last time out, having to be switched around horses before running on into fourth place. He will surely gain his revenge on Discussiontofollow on 7lbs better terms and will break from stall 19.

There are some very promising three-year-olds in the mile and a half handicap at 2.40. All of the early money has been for Kings Fete who holds a St Leger entry for Sir Michael Stoute. He is definitely a leading contender but I am just slightly concerned by the fact that he has been declared to run in a hood for the first time. He is also worse off at the weights with Second Step who beat him at Newbury on his debut.

I am reluctant to pass over the Cumani horse who won well last time at the same venue but the fast ground is a concern. I am just leaning towards the Mark Johnston runner, Rainbow Rock, after his fine run earlier in the week. He came from a long way back in the straight and was going on at the finish. With any other stable you would be worried about such a quick reappearance but this is second nature for the Johnston horses.

Rainbow Rock 2.40 Goodwood @9-2 William Hill

Muthmir 3.50 Goodwood @11-2 BetVictor

Alben Star 3.50 Goodwood @9-1 BetBright

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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The weather is threatening to wash away the jump racing action in Britain this weekend with early morning inspections at all three courses. Given that the going is already described as heavy and the forecast is for heavy overnight rain, I fear the worst and think it would be a waste of time studying the form.

Fortunately the all-weather racing goes on regardless and I’ve managed to pick out a couple for a quick Saturday double. I expect Channel 4 will divert their cameras to leafy Lingfield if Sandown is abandoned so we may get some entertainment after all.

The ever-smiling George Margarson saddles Rebellious Guest tomorrow in an effort to follow up last week’s comfortable victory. I wouldn’t blame you if you are struggling to distinguish between one “guest” and another in the Margarson stable but this one was a useful two-year-old. He won two of his first three races but never really went on from there and has been toiling in handicaps on the turf.

He gained his first win for a couple of years last week when coming through sweetly under Jamie Spencer to win going away. That was over course and distance so we need have no fears about ground, trip etc. Tom Queally is on board tomorrow with Spencer riding market rival Apostle for David Simcock.

Apostle just about last home over seven furlongs last time and has gone up 4lbs for his win. A bigger concern is the fact that all of his wins have been over six and seven furlongs. With Rebellious Guest running off bottom weight, it would be disappointing if he cannot get past Apostle in the final furlong here. Margarson’s gelding is racing off just 86 and used to be rated 99 on the turf. Clearly there is room for him to improve from this rating.

Mark Johnston’s Blue Wave goes for a quick hat-trick in the coral.co.uk Handicap at 3.30. He is up 10lbs for his latest win at Southwell but he looked like he could go around again that day. He originally ran in the blue of Godolphin but eventually found his way to Johnston’s yard and ran some decent races on turf. Probably his best effort was when just caught by Van Percy at Haydock. Cathy Gannon managed to extricate her mount just in time to collar Blue Wave on the post.

He’s a son of Raven’s Pass and could still be improving enough to take this. He shapes like an out-and-out stayer so this mile and a half is barely enough to get him warmed up.

Lingfield 2.55 Rebellious Guest 7-2 Bet365

Lingfield 3.30 Blue Wave 11-4 888Sport, Unibet

Beverley 31st August Preview

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Beverley stages a highly competitive sprint on Saturday with the £23,000 Beverley Bullet Stakes over five furlongs. The Yorkshire track has a reputation for having the biggest draw bias in the country in sprint races, surprisingly even more pronounced than that of Chester. It is believed that stalls 1-3 have a definite advantage and high numbers only come into the reckoning on soft ground.

Although there is rain around, the latest information I have is that the going is good to firm with watering. I cannot say that I bet at Beverley that often as I tend to favour betting on better quality animals but Saturday’s race has attracted some good class sprinters.

York Glory (drawn 4) won the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot and was not disgraced in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at the Ebor meeting. His racing style is to come through late off a fast pace and there doesn’t seem to be a difference between his performance over five or six furlongs. Jamie Spencer should be able to get a nice lead into the race and it is not surprising to see him put up as favourite.

I was quite keen on Excelette who gave Jwala a good run for her money at York earlier this summer but I am concerned about her draw in stall 12. Her stable companion Tangerine Trees has kept good company this season and is a fast starter from stall six, although he has not been lasting home in recent outings.

Tangerine Trees won the Prix de L’Abbaye last season and also won on his last two visits to Beverley at odds of 10-1 and 33-1. He overcame stalls 8 and 9 to make all on each occasion so it would be no surprise to see him blazing the trail again here. Masamah is another fast starter but is drawn out in stall 11 with Ballista faring even worse in stall 13.

Caledonia Lady didn’t run too badly last time but also faces an uphill task from 15 and Stepper Point at least has every chance from stall 2. However, he needed plenty of encouragement to win a 7-runner conditions event at Nottingham last time. Tangerine Trees could well be the best option at around 9-1.

Mark Johnston’s Windhoek has been given some tough tasks recently and his followers will be starting to feel the pinch. He should be able to get back on the winning trail in the 3.40 race at the expense of Her Majesty’s Circus Turn. Joe Fanning is in great form at the moment and will hopefully take no prisoners here.

The best bet of the day could Sound of Summer in the maiden at 4.50. The Charlie Hills-trained filly ran a fair fourth on her debut at Newbury under a considerate ride from Johnny Murtagh and this could be a stepping stone to better things.

Tangerine Trees 9-1 William Hill

Windhoek 15-8 Ladbrokes

Sound of Summer 6-5 Betfair

Haydock Old Newton Cup Preview

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The good news is that our ante-post bets for the weekend all still stand after the 48 hour declarations. That includes 20-1 about Mars in the Eclipse who will be partnered by Ryan Moore. I think I probably deserve a free bet for managing to correctly guess which race Aidan O’Brien would run him in!

The Ballydoyle maestro pulled another rabbit out of the that this week by announcing that Declaration of War would join Mars in the race. In his defence, the horse has winning form over a mile and a quarter so it is not like he is running a sprinter. Wouldn’t it be typical if he turns out to be the one to beat Mars!

Anyway, moving over to Haydock and the Old Newton Cup. I tried to fathom this one out earlier in the week but decided to put it in the “too difficult” tray until the running plans are known. The Highclere team has decided to let Opinion take his chance under top weight but I remain sceptical about the form of the Ascot race.

Ustura certainly did nothing for the form this week and it is going to take a mighty effort under 9st 10lb. I am convinced that Mark Johnston’s horses are coming into peak form ahead of the Newmarket July meeting and Glorious Goodwood. Nothing unusual about that of course but I was hoping he would help me out by reducing his entries for this race.

No such luck! He has left all five in the race. I thought Scatter Dice put in an eye-catching run in the Northumberland Plate last week and briefly looked to have gone ahead in the dash to the line. Fennell Bay is another tough nut to pass on his day but both horses seem to have been running every week. Star Lahib must also have a squeak after some consistent efforts but none of them scream out at you.

I fancied Quixote for last week’s Plate as a lively outsider but Clive Brittain decided to divert him here instead. Hayley Turner is an interesting booking having last ridden him at Southwell last year. His run against Montaser was sound enough and he could be worth each-way support.

I just cannot work up any enthusiasm for Luca Cumani’s Franciscan and Strictly Silver might have had a chance but for a lousy draw. I am going to have an each-way on Scatter Dice, a name that seems wholly appropriate for a mind-boggling race!

Quixote 16-1 Ladbrokes
Scatter Dice 20-1 Skybet

April 10th Nottingham Preview

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The flat racing turf season has started, albeit with a bit of a whimper. The Lincoln Handicap was postponed and then provided a 20-1 winner to kick-off the so-called “Spring Double” completed by Aurora’s Encore at 66-1 in the Grand National! I don’t think even Mystic Meg will have come up with those two!

The National Hunt season still has Punchestown and the Betfred Gold Cup to come but the big flat stables are starting to roll out some quality animals this week. A midweek Nottingham card wouldn’t normally provide much excitement but there are some genuine group class horses in action on Wednesday.

The first of them is Spirit Quartz in the 3.10. The five-year-old son of Invincible Spirit was second to Aussie raider Ortensia in both the Group 2 King George Stakes and the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes last summer. On the latter occasion he had Humidor only a length and a half behind him and that horse re-opposes tomorrow. Spirit Quartz finished his season when stuck in the mud at Longchamp, this time with Humidor in front of him. I am prepared to overlook that as being a race too many. What is slightly worrying is that Robert Cowell’s horse has already been unplaced twice at Meydan in March behind Shea Shea. Hopefully the surface just didn’t suit him and he can return to his best now he is back on turf.

Another horse that I have been looking forward to is Mark Johnston’s Sir Graham Wade who is unleashed in the 3.40. He won six races last season, winning his first handicap off a mark of 80 and closing his campaign with victory in a Listed race in France. He won on everything from firm to heavy, including the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster. Kieren Fallon rode him that day and somehow managed to win cleverly in a slowly run race where four lengths covered all 12 runners at the finish. Usually that is the sign of a poor race but Sir Graham Wade won despite the slow pace and has already proved that he is better than a handicapper. Not surprisingly, Johnston is thinking along the lines of the Cup races this year so it will be a disappointment if he can’t win tomorrow.

In the 4.40 race, the word from Ed Dunlop’s stable is that Singersongwriter is better than a handicapper. Bet365 went 7-4 briefly on Tuesday but that was taken before the ink had dried and he is now showing at 10-11. That might seem a bit skinny for his first run of the season under top weight but only time will tell.

The meeting should begin with an odds-on win for Cumani and Fallon with Elhaarne and jockey Ryan Moore has an interesting book of rides. Andrew Balding also has a couple of interesting runners in handicaps with Benzanno (4.10) and Debdebdeb (5.10). It looks a well above average card for Nottingham and will be worth studying as a source of future winners.

Spirit Quartz Evens Bet365
Sir Graham Wade 6-4 William Hill
Singersongwriter 10-11 Bet365