Tag: Mars

Irish Derby Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World has been given an official rating of just 120, the lowest rating for a Derby winner this century. His figure is just one short of that given to Sir Percy who prevailed in a similarly bunched finish in 2006. Although Ruler Of The World had a length and a half to spare at the line, there were seven horses within four lengths at the end of a hugely controversial race.

For all the nonsense that has been said about Aidan O’Brien’s brilliant tactical move to slow the race down, the fact is that Dawn Approach destroyed his own chances by refusing to settle. I can think of many Guineas winners that did not stay the Derby distance but none that imploded so dramatically as Jim Bolger’s colt. That issue aside, what can we deduce about the future prospects for the first half dozen or so?

Ruler Of The World has been installed 15-8 favourite to follow up in the Irish Derby with runner-up Libertarian at 9-2, Battle Of Marengo 6-1, Galileo Rock and Mars 8-1. The betting suggests that the places should be confirmed at the Curragh. The problem with betting ante-post on the O’Brien horses is that you can never be too sure what is going to run where. Once again he has three of the first five in the market and other options including the Eclipse and the King George.

It was ironic that after such a sedate early pace the first three home were arguably the most stoutly-bred horses in the race. I was not keen on the Derby prospects of Libertarian after York because I felt that he would get too far out of his ground early on. To some extent this was true but he overhauled half a dozen horses in the last furlong and will almost certainly be supplemented for Ireland.

A couple of respected judges put up Galileo Rock as an each-way bet at huge prices last week and just scraped into third after racing prominently. It’s easy to imagine him developing into a leading St Leger contender but I’m not convinced that he has the speed to reverse the placings with the winner. Battle Of Marengo has yet to convince me that he stays a mile and a half and it wouldn’t surprise me if he bypassed the Curragh but Mars ran a hugely promising race.

Richard Hughes was probably hoping that the field would come back to him as they did in the Oaks a day previously but things did not pan out that way. Instead he found himself trying to make ground on horses that were quickening up the hill. He and Ocovango were the worst sufferers in the skirmishing that took place when the pace finally quickened but Mars ran on most encouragingly. He reminds me a little of Rip Van Winkle in that he finished out of the money at Newmarket and Epsom before proving to be top class over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

Because of my reservations about backing O’Brien’s horses ante-post, I am going to have to sit on the fence for the time being. I have a feeling that we may see Mars run in the Eclipse and Ruler Of The World run at the Curragh but I’m not about to risk my cash second-guessing the master of Ballydoyle.

Epsom Derby Ante-Post Update

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The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.

Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.

Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.

In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.

The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.

The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.

Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.

Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill

Newmarket 2000 Guineas Preview

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I am just back from a week away and have been catching up with the news. I thought that I had selected a pretty quiet week for a break but apparently not! The Godolphin doping scandal has rocked the racing world; most particularly Newmarket as it shudders at the thought of life after Sheikh Mohammed. Fortunately it seems that there is no immediate threat to his racing empire and Mahmood Al Zarooni has been hastily despatched back to Dubai on the back of an eight year ban. That all seemed to be dealt with rather too hastily and you can’t help but wonder what repercussions lie just around the corner.

It only seems like yesterday that we were trying (in vain) to work out the Grand National winner and here we are approaching the first classic of the new turf season! Godolphin may have lost the chance to run Certify in the 1000 Guineas but they still have the favourite for the first colt’s classic in Dawn Approach. He is trained in Ireland by Jim Bolger but there is no doubt that the Godolphin operation has been tainted by recent events and it would be ironic if they collect on Saturday. He was smart enough as a two-year-old but without a recent outing I am not remotely tempted by odds in the region of 11-8.

His victory in the Dewhurst Stakes was more workmanlike than spectacular and he briefly looked in trouble before responding to pressure to run down stable companion Leitir Mor. He was well on top at the finish but it did not look a vintage renewal. In third place that day was Aidan O’Brien’s George Vancouver who closed in to challenge before flattening out again in the last furlong. He has three and a half lengths to make up on Dawn Approach but put up a much improved effort to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next time out. He was given a perfect ride by Ryan Moore that day, holding his position on the fence before being produced between horses in the short straight.

The chief market rival to the favourite is Richard Hannon’s Toronado. His front-running display in the Craven Stakes has seen his price collapse to 9-4 and you can understand why. Hannon rates him right up there with the best and he goes into the race fit and unbeaten. He also looks a straight forward ride and you would expect Richard Hughes to have him right up there from the outset. Whether or not 9-4 is great value is hard to say but he looks a major player.

Aidan O’Brien also runs Cristoforo Colombo and Mars with Joseph O’Brien preferring to ride the former. He looks tried and tested and the application of cheek pieces on Saturday does not inspire confidence. Mars is obviously a colt of enormous potential but seems well down the pecking order at Ballydoyle ahead of the first classic. I am a big fan of Garswood who did this column a favour when winning the Free Handicap in great style recently. Trainer Richard Fahey admitted that he had no idea whether or not he would stay the seven furlongs that day but he is apparently now full of hope that he will last the mile. As much as I like the colt, I must admit that it had occurred to me that he was a classic contender and I am slightly mystified by his price of 12-1.

Of the remainder, I like Moohajim but his run in the Greenham suggested that he will not stay a mile. He cruised into contention but found little under pressure behind Olympic Glory. He will presumably be held up to get the trip but it is difficult to be confident that he will do so. Toronado looks the most likely winner but I’m also going to recommend an each-way bet on George Vancouver at 16-1.

Toronado 9-4 William Hill
George Vancouver (each-way) 16-1 Paddy Power