There is now less than a month until the end of the regular season and the league’s elite teams have started playing a long game. This has seen the likes of the Golden State Warriors, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards all suffer a slump as they surrender to fatigue and complacency. They already have one eye on the playoffs and are trying to ensure they are in ship shape come mid-April, so now can be a good time to bet against them covering the spread.
Top Teams Struggling
No top team is in a greater period of malaise than Golden State, hit by injury to Kevin Durant and enduring its worst spell since Steve Kell took over as head coach in 2014. The Warriors lost three times in a row – against the Celtics, Timberwolves and Spurs – and then, as we predicted last week, failed to cover the spread against Philadelphia. Golden State has since bounced back with heavy wins over Orlando and Milwaukee, but it could be worth opposing them in spread betting over the next couple of weeks. Ditto the Cavs, who have regularly failed to cover the spread of late. The Wizards have also lost focus and dropped against teams with losing marks.
Teams Finding Form
As the elite teams have suffered, some teams further down the conferences are finding their feet and making a late push for the playoffs. In the east, it is Miami and Milwaukee. At 7-3 and 8-2 respectively, they have the best recent records in the conference and both look set for the postseason. Milwaukee is really one to watch, driven by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is on course to be the first player ever to finish the regular season in the top 20 for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. In the west, the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers are both 7-3 in 10, and only the San Antonio Spurs can match that.
Futures Update
The recent struggles of Golden State have opened the door for the in-form Spurs. They have a head-to-head advantage over the Warriors and look set to steal top seed in the west if things continue as they are, so the 4/1 Ladbrokes is offering on them winning the east looks interesting. The Cavs’ inconsistency and the Wizards’ recent woes have left the Boston Celtics as the form team of the east and the 7/1 at Sky Bet on them taking that conference is another intriguing option.
Upcoming Games
Golden State travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks on Wednesday, and Dallas is the league’s fifth-best team for covering the spread, so that looks a great bet. Antetokounmpo’s in-form Bucks play the Kings in Sacramento on Thursday and should win that outright, and cover a modest spread. The Nuggets look a great bet to cover the spread against the Cavs that day too, while on Friday a Spurs-Celtics-Trail Blazers outright treble looks a good option as all three are playing well.
