Two months into the AFL season and we’re now starting to get a good handle of where the teams are at. Fremantle obviously appear to be the team to beat, but with so many upsets thrown around last week, it’s getting harder to separate the mid table sides. We’ll do our best to come back form our horror tipping show last week, and provide some better quality predictions this week in our AFL Round 7 Preview:
Essendon v North Melbourne
Essendon – $2.35
North Melbourne – $1.60
I doubt this one will be one for the purists but it is an important match for the two teams. Essendon host North Melbourne in the Round 7 opener where both teams will be looking to stay in touch with the top 8 after up and down starts to the season.
North Melbourne are favourites on the back of their defeat of Richmond last week. They should be too strong for an Essendon side that have gone backwards in recent weeks after a pleasing start to the season. Although both teams are struggling to bring intensity in defence this season, their attack has also been disjointed so a winning score in the 80’s or early 90’s seems about right.
North Melbourne to win.
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Crows – $1.25
St Kilda – $4.15
Round 6’s surprise packages the Saints have it all to do against an Adelaide side that has been decimated by injury in recent weeks. Both sides enter this one on the back of Round 6 wins. As alluded to St Kilda recorded their biggest come from behind win in the history to beat the Western Bulldogs away from home. The Crows also enjoyed a win, their’s a comprehensive win over the Suns.
History is against St Kilda in this fixture. They have lost their last four games against Adelaide, meaning it will take some special to overcome then on Saturday. Perhaps the fact that the Crows are missing Rory Sloane is the slice of luck they need to in.
We doubt it. The Crows to take this one out.
Hawthorne v Melbourne
Hawthorne – $1.08
Melbourne – $8.50
The Demons are about to see a demon unleashed on them this week. Melbourne hosts an embarrassed Hawthorne side that suffered a shock loss to the Giants last week. The result of which will be a revengeful monster that doesn’t bode well for Melbourne’s chances.
The Hawks very rarely suffer two losses in a row and despite still being without suspended duo Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis should have too much firepower for their opponents. If they win on Saturday it will be their 12th straight victory over the 15th placed Demons.
Hawthorne to get through comfortably.
Carlton v GWS Giants
Carlton – $2.70
Giants – $1.48
Carlton coach Mick Malthouse is under huge pressure to get a result in his side’s match with the Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday. The three time premiership winning coach has been lambasted in the media throughout the week after Carlton’s loss to Brisbane last week. Malthouse calls the media comments “unsavoury”, but the media and greater AFL public are likely to determine his employment status over the coming weeks, so a win on Saturday is probably more needed than any other win in his glittering coaching career.
The Blues were so poor last week. The opposite of the Giants, who enjoyed a ten point win adjacent reigning premiers Hawthorne. The Giants are in the unfamiliar position of favourites, and we’re a little worried how they’ll respond to that.
Therefore, we’re giving the Blues the win (in a risky tip).
Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats
Swans – $1.27
Cats – $3.90
The Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium presents a stern test for an improving Geelong side in Saturday nights penultimate game. The Cats returned to some form by destroying high flying Collingwood with one of the best half of footy we’ve seen this season.
But, the Swans are in some quality nick too. Currently 4th on the championship ladder and having enjoyed a comfortable win in last week’s action against Melbourne, the Swans should be too much for Geelong.
Isaac Heeney’s forced injury layoff is the only change to the Swans side. In his place Dean Towers in a move that shouldn’t affect the play of the team too much.
Sydney to win.
West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns
Eagles – $1.10
Suns – $7.50
The Suns have never beaten the West Coast Eagles, a statistic that is unlikely to change at Domain Stadium on Saturday. The Eagles are always a difficult proposition at home, and currently sit second on the AFL ladder despite many pundits assuming they would struggle this year after key retirements in the back field.
However, they have proven themselves to be finals contenders with key wins in four of their last five games. The Suns best chance of causing an upset is through the middle of the paddock, however that’s hard to fathom given the relative inexperience of their midfielders. Gold Coast were better than the 31 point losing margin suggested last week but will find their Round 7 opponents too tricky.
West Coast to remain in the competitions top three with an easy win.
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Bulldogs – $3.65
Fremantle – $1.28
Fremantle are not only the early leaders of 2015, they’re also the team to beat the entire year after putting together six wins from as many games to start the season. Getting plenty out of stars Nathan Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and David Mundy, Fremantle have already established an 8 point lead at the top of the ladder.
While other sides that were tipped for success in 2015 stumble through the opening rounds, the Dockers look untouchable. That should hold even against a Bulldogs side that are the surprise packages of this year’s action. It’s somewhat remarkable that an unbeaten side is still only at $1.28 to get the job done – a testament to the Bulldogs play.
The Western Bulldogs have gone 4-2 to start the season, and should have beaten St Kilda last week when they led by as much as 50 points before letting it slip.
While we think this will be close, we can’t see Fremantle losing. Dockers to get up.
Richmond v Collingwood
Richmond – $2.05
Collingwood – $1.75
A strange game to predict features a Tigers side that were tipped to finish well inside the top 4 this season, but are now languishing in 13th, playing a Collingwood side who were pathetic in last Friday’s loss to Geelong.
Ordinarily we’d give this to Collingwood, however the pressure on both sides could result in some desperation that makes it close and difficult to determine a winner.
Players aside the major talking point of the match will be the tactics and performance of the two coaches. Damien Hardwick in charge of the Tigers, and Nathan Buckley at the helm of Collingwood are both under pressure (more so Hardwick) and it will be interesting how they ask their chargers to play in this one.
We think Collingwood should be okay. They’ll win in by 15 points.
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Lions – $4.50
Port – $1.20
Brisbane enjoyed a win last week, their first of the 2015 campaign, but we can’t see them getting any points out of their Sunday showdown against the Power at the Gabba. The Lions snuck a win over the under pressure Carlton side, mainly thanks to Tom Rockliff and new recruit Dayne Beams.
They’ll need plenty more out of their in form big men if the are to trouble a Power side who currently occupy 10th on the ladder with a 3-3 record. That’s an okay return from a difficult opending draw, and they showed signs last week against the Eagles that they would compete with the better teams this year.
They were slightly unlucky to lose at home last week, however with Robbie Gray kicking goals for fun. We think they’ll justify their favourite tags and beat the Lions.
