Tag: Melbourne Cup odds

Melbourne Cup 2014 – Runner by Runner Guide

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Flemington Race 7 (3:00pm) Tuesday 4th November

Admire Rakti – 9

Clear favourite since winning the Caulfield Cup and carries only a 0.5kg penalty here. Classy Japanese raider who was fourth in the Japan Cup last year and has drawn perfectly in barrier 8.

Cavalryman – NON-RUNNER

Godolphin are still chasing that elusive first Cup victory and Cavalryman is not out of it despite being eight years of age. Won the Goodwood Cup in July and was fast enough to beat Hillstar at Newmarket over a mile and half previously.

Fawkner – 9

Consistent grey who won the Caulfield Stakes before finishing a short-neck second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Sixth last year and has a major chance of doing better here.

Red Cadeaux – 6

Veteran of three Melbourne Cups, finishing runner-up behind Dunaden in 2011 and Fiorente last year. His prep races have been poor this year and it will be a major shock if he can improve his record.

Protectionist – 8

Trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and a big market mover following his fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Has not always been the easiest horse to train but has never been out of the first four and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Sea Moon – NON-RUNNER

A classy middle-distance performer in Europe and won the Herbert Power Stakes last year. Has been out of sorts in the build-up to the race will wear blinkers on Tuesday.

Seismos – 6

Regarded as the second string to the absent Dandino for Marco Botti and always struggling at Caulfield. Will need to hold his position early from barrier 1 if he is to have any chance.

Junoob – 7

Won the Group 1 Metropolitan for Chris Waller but did not enjoy a good run in the Caulfield Cup. Another with stamina concerns but perfectly drawn in barrier seven.

Royal Diamond – 7

Almost forgotten stable companion of Mutual Regard but the winner of the Irish St Leger in 2012 and a good performer in his own right. Has won on all types of ground but is unlikely to be improving at the age of eight.

Gatewood – 7

Was aimed at this race in 2012 but did not qualify and failed to settle in Australia subsequently. Has been revitalised by a return to John Gosden’s stable but drawn wide in barrier 22.

Mutual Regard – 9

Winner of the valuable Ebor handicap at York and a proven stayer with a touch of class. Has enjoyed a smooth preparation and is expected to go well for second season trainer Johnny Murtagh.

Who shot Thebarman – 6

One of three runners for Chris Waller and finished behind stable companion Junoob at Caulfield. Had previously won a Group 3 race here.

Willing Foe – 7

Beat Royal Diamond in the 2012 Ebor but has been lightly-raced since. Should get the trip but is regarded as Godolphin’s number two behind Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent – 6

A very ambitious raider from Roger Varian’s stable with no form beyond a mile and a half. Won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland last year but big stamina doubts.

Precedence – 5

Bart Cummings-trained nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the race. Started at 100-1 when ninth last year and will be a similar price this time.

Brambles – 7

One of two Peter Moody runners and has run some decent trials here and at Caulfield. May lack a turn of foot and a wide draw will not help his cause.

Mr O’Ceirin – 5

Not much to recommend this one, a doubtful stayer without a victory this season. Best effort when second to Moriarty at Eagle Farm in May.

Au Revoir – 6

Trained in France by Andre Fabre and ran a fair trial when third in the recent Moonee Valley Cup. Not the highest class raider from France in recent seasons and poorly drawn in barrier 23.

Lidari – 7

Stable companion of Brambles and a very similar profile. Tightly matched with that horse on form behind Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti but has fared better in the draw in barrier 10.

Opinion – 6

Another entry for Chris Waller and struggling for form recently. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute in England and ran well behind Junoob in the Metropolitan.

Araldo – 6

Only a length and a half behind Admire Rakti at Caulfield. Previously third to Junoob but connections will have been devastated to see him drawn widest of all in barrier 24.

Lucia Valentina – 8

Winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Was ridden from off the pace that day and unproven over the distance but should get a good position from barrier 2.

Unchain My Heart – 4

Comfortably held by several of these on form and a serious contender for last place.

Signoff – 6

Emphatically beat Big Memory to win the Lexus Stakes on Saturday and earn his place in the field. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009.

Forecast

  1. Fawkner 10-1 Sportsbet
  2. Mutual Regard 10-1 Luxbet
  3. Admire Rakti 4-1 Tom Waterhouse
  4. Lucia Valentina 7-1 Sportingbet

Melbourne Cup Update

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The final field is gradually taking shape for the Melbourne Cup and the favourite Admire Rakti has been given the go-ahead despite picking up a 0.5kg penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Owner Riichi Kondo had warned that he may divert the horse to the Japan Cup if he received a penalty but those fears were allayed on Tuesday.

The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg in the race was Think Big in 1975. Only Kingston Town in 1982 and Vintage Crop in 1995 have managed to carry such a large weight into a place since then. Connections cannot really complain as this is the lowest penalty given to the Caulfield Cup winner since Ming Dynasty in 1980.

Godolphin’s quest for a first Melbourne Cup success has been well documented and they have finished runner-up three times. This year’s hopes rest with the veteran Cavalryman and last year’s Ebor winner Willing Foe, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Cavalryman could do no better than twelfth in 2012 but he has seemed better than ever this season. Craig Williams will take the ride on him with James McDonald partnering Willing Foe. A notable European absentee is Marco Botti’s Dandino who finished fifth last year. He missed his intended run in the Caulfield Cup through lameness and has not recovered in time to take his place. The stable will now rely on Seismos who was well beaten at Caulfield.

In last week’s Caulfield Cup Review we picked out Mutual Regard as the best of the European challengers and Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride. The Irish-trained gelding has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but runs well fresh and could provide former top jockey Johnny Murtagh with the biggest win of his fledgling training career.

The Group 3 Geelong Cup proved a farcical affair with a stop-go gallop but it eventually went to Caravan Rolls On, formerly trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam in England. Now with Danny O’Brien, he is very unlikely to get into the race at Flemington. Connections are hoping that he receives a 2kg penalty to boost his chances of sneaking in.

Junoob will still take his chance in the Cup despite finishing only seventh at Caulfield. He was pushed up early on to try to overcome a wide draw but ending up racing wide and did well to plug on into seventh place. Trainer Chris Waller is still chasing a first win in the great race.

Andreas Wohler’s German stayer Protectionist is still all the rage after his eye-catching run into fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. Ryan Moore has the ride on the Group 2 winner and will be hoping for better luck than he has experienced on Mount Athos (2012) and Dandino last year. The market could get a further shake-up after Fawkner runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday.

*Ante-post Mutual Regard 20-1 Paddy Power

Melbourne Cup – Runner-by-Runner Guide

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Over two months ago I put up Dandino (33-1) and Simenon (25-1) and both have made it safely to the big race. Better still, they have come through their prep races with flying colours and survived the lottery of the draw! It is an incredibly hot race this year and there are plenty of dangers. If you haven’t “played” yet, I wouldn’t put you off either horse and still think Dandino offers some value at a top price of 11-1 with 888Sport.

European runners enjoyed a fantastic Breeders’ Cup and I’m pleased to say that we came out on top with three winners from six selections including the impressive Outstrip at 6-1. It was so nearly four but The Fugue was just run out of it by Magician in the closing stages. Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best and his confidence will be sky high as he gets the leg up on Dandino.

As I mentioned previously, I have been impressed with Fiorente all the way through his preparation and expect him to be in the frame whilst Sea Moon is the class horse of the race. He may not have won over this trip yet but he stayed well enough to finish third in the St Leger in 2011 and he may have had a bit up his sleeve in the Herbert Power. I’m taking the best odds on those two as “cover bets” but will be cheering on Dandino and Simenon at 4.00am UK time!

Dandino 33-1*

Simenon 25-1*

Sea Moon 14-1 Coral

Fiorente 15-2 888Sport

*Ante-post advised

 

Complete Guide to the 24 runners

 

Fawkner

The Caulfield Cup winner held off the late challenge of Dandino but I’d be disappointed if the placings are not reversed this time. Dandino had to overcome a terrible draw whilst Fawkner had a pretty clear run. He is one of six Lloyd Williams runners and certainly has the form to make the first four at least.

 

Dunaden

The winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012 but has not shown quite the same sparkle this year. Jamie Spencer has teamed up with him this season and faces an interesting challenge from barrier 1. Not one for me but still a great favourite with Melbourne Cup fans.

 

Green Moon

Green Moon added his name to Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007) as the fourth winner of the race owner Lloyd Williams. He’s slipped into the field almost unnoticed this year and his Cox Plate rate was not that far behind last year’s effort. His loyal followers will be hoping for a good run at a big price.

 

Red Cadeaux

If Trainer Ed Dunlop has started to joke about Red Cadeaux’s age catching up with him and any lingering hopes of finally getting his head in front must have disappeared with the 23 draw.  As admirable as he is, there is surely going to be something more sprightly to beat him this year.

 

Sea Moon

A high class colt for Sir Michael Stoute in England, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. He seems to have adapted well to his new surroundings and is going to be a real threat if he stays the trip. Simenon was not far behind him in the Herbert Power but Sea Moon gave the impression that he could have found more if needed.

 

Super Cool

All of Super Cool’s form is over shorter distances and this is a real shot in the dark. A fading fifth in the Cox Plate didn’t offer any clues as to his prospects of lasting out here and looks a big outsider

 

Voleuse De Coeurs

Voleuse De Coeurs did not seem anything special until blitzing the field by six lengths in the Irish St Leger. The four-year-old was immediately snapped up in a private deal and sent out to Australia specifically for this race. There are no doubts on stamina but a 21 barrier draw could make things difficult.

 

Fiorente

Gai Waterhouse is looking for her first win in the Melbourne Cup and Fiorente has been prepared with this race in mind all season. He made his Australian debut in this event 12 months ago and was only beaten a length at odds of 30-1. He has been running on well over trips well short of his best and looks the best of the home challenge.

 

Hawkspur

Hawkspur caught the eye when flying through up the inside to finish fifth in the Turnbull Stakes but a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup again left him too much to do. He is a habitual slow starter and anyone supporting him will be holding their breath through the early stages. He would need everything to go his way to win this but has the ability.

 

Tres Blue

Most of the attention will be Fiorente for Gai Waterhouse but she also saddles this promising French import. Without a prep run in Australia, so running in the big one first time out just as his stable companion did last year. A Group 2 winner in France and one of the unknown quantities in the field.

 

Brown Panther

This one is owned by former England soccer international Michael Owen and has already enjoyed big race success this year in the Goodwood Cup. He had a minor setback after that race and has had a slightly rushed preparation but has been catching the eye with his trackwork down under. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him sneak into the frame at a big price.

 

Foreteller

Foreteller burst on to the Melbourne Cup scene with his shock victory over Puissance De Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The big question for his supporters is whether he can stay the Melbourne Cup trip. He made eye-catching late headway to finish fourth in the Cox Plate and will be one of several hoping for a sedate gallop.

 

Ethiopia

Most of the field go into the race on the back of a good recent run but that cannot be said of Ethiopia. He was beaten 64 lengths when finishing last 12 months ago but that was due to an injury. If this one pops up it will be a great result for the bookies!

 

Dandino

Anyone who reads my posts will know that I have been following this fellow all season and am sitting on a 33-1 voucher. He won the American St Leger in good style prior to running a cracker in the Caulfield Cup and jockey Ryan Moore is in flying form. I’m surprised that he is still as high as 11-1 in the UK and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

 

Verema

His Highness the Aga Khan has his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and it is by no means impossible that he could win it. Verema is trained by Alain de Royer Dupre of Americain fame and this filly has a very similar profile.  I very nearly included her in my cover bets and it would not surprise me in the least if she is in the first four.

 

Mourayan

Trainer Robert Hickmott has better claims with Sea Moon, Fawkner, Green Moon, Seville and Masked Marvel. Mourayan did win the Sydney Cup so he has the stamina but it would be a major shock if he proved good enough to win.

 

Seville

Seville was up to classic standard when trained by Aidan O’Brien, beaten only by Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby in 2011. He was absolutely slammed by Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur and has had his problems since going to Australia. Has been well backed in the past couple of weeks so a big run cannot be ruled out.

 

Dear Demi

Dear Demi won the Group 2 Furious Stakes and later chased home Commanding Jewel in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She enjoyed Group 1 success in the Crown Oaks at Flemington last year but is unproven over this distance. Only last weekend she just failed to peg back Side Glance in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes and this race may come too quickly.

 

Mount Athos

I was a big supporter of this one last year but a poor draw and a bumpy ride sealed his fate, eventually running on into fifth. Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani has been second with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008) but insists that Mount Athos is better than either of those. His response to another wide draw was very succinct – “damn it!” I fear that he will again struggle to get involved from barrier 22.

 

Royal Empire

Godolphin’s quest for a Melbourne Cup winner started way back in 1998 and Royal Empire is their only surviving entry this year. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury but has been beaten twice since. Kerrin McEvoy will give him a good ride but a place may be the best that he can hope for.

 

Masked Marvel

The 2011 English St Leger has been slow to find his form in Australia but, in truth, he had lost his way in Europe long before he arrived down under. He would need to produce his best effort for a long time in order to feature here and will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

 

Simenon

If Dandino doesn’t win it, then I’m hoping that Simenon does. He is certainly better than a 25-1 shot judged on his fine effort when third in the Herbert Power Stakes. I am a little concerned at Richard Hughes having to sweat down to his lowest weight for the ride but Simenon can be ridden from anywhere and does have a finishing kick.

 

Ibicenco

The German-bred has just snatched a place by virtue of his win in a particularly weak looking renewal of the Geelong Cup. He was no great shakes when trained by Luca Cumani and I would be surprised if he proves good enough here.

 

Ruscello

On all known form, 50-1 is a fair price for the Lexus Stakes winner. Even his connections seriously doubted that he could make the line-up and they have Kerrin McEvoy to thank for his brilliant front-running ride on Saturday.

 

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Update

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I tipped Dandino at 33-1 over two months ago and his price has now contracted to as short as 6-1 after his excellent run in the Caulfield Cup last week. I feared the worst when he was drawn in barrier 19 but Craig Williams rode him in a very similar way to 2012 winner Dunaden, refusing to panic in the early stages and making relentless progress up the home straight.

There is no question that he put in a first rate prep for the Melbourne Cup and I wouldn’t swap my 33-1 ticket for any other horse at the moment. That run came off the back of a game success in the American St Leger following a light campaign over shorter distances in Europe. Trainer Marco Botti has already shown that he knows how to prepare one for the Cup with Jakkalberry grabbing a place in the frame 12 months ago.

I also put up Irish hope Simenon at 25-1 and he has also shaped encouragingly with an excellent third in the Herbert Power Stakes. A victory there would have guaranteed him a place in the starting line-up but he now requires seven horses to drop out. You would have to be optimistic that he will get his chance and he is now a top-priced 20-1. Having finished second in the Ascot Gold Cup in June, he will relish the step up in trip and will hopefully get a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

I’m happy with both selections at this stage and will not be adding to them, at least until the draw is made. The one I fear most is former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Fiorente. He also ran a fantastic trial and seems to have had the perfect build up for the big race. Mount Athos is quite short at 10-1 but he needs everything to go his way whilst Puissance de Lune has drifted out to 11-1 after a run of defeats.

Verema, Voleuse des Coeurs and Tres Blue are all going there with the potential to cause an upset and it promises to be a great race. If you’ve taken the 33-1 Dandino, keep your fingers crossed that he gets to the race in great shape and is given a better barrier draw at Flemington.

Dandino 33-1 “16th August

Simenon 25-1 Bet365