Tag: Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The final field is gradually taking shape for the Melbourne Cup and the favourite Admire Rakti has been given the go-ahead despite picking up a 0.5kg penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Owner Riichi Kondo had warned that he may divert the horse to the Japan Cup if he received a penalty but those fears were allayed on Tuesday.

The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg in the race was Think Big in 1975. Only Kingston Town in 1982 and Vintage Crop in 1995 have managed to carry such a large weight into a place since then. Connections cannot really complain as this is the lowest penalty given to the Caulfield Cup winner since Ming Dynasty in 1980.

Godolphin’s quest for a first Melbourne Cup success has been well documented and they have finished runner-up three times. This year’s hopes rest with the veteran Cavalryman and last year’s Ebor winner Willing Foe, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Cavalryman could do no better than twelfth in 2012 but he has seemed better than ever this season. Craig Williams will take the ride on him with James McDonald partnering Willing Foe. A notable European absentee is Marco Botti’s Dandino who finished fifth last year. He missed his intended run in the Caulfield Cup through lameness and has not recovered in time to take his place. The stable will now rely on Seismos who was well beaten at Caulfield.

In last week’s Caulfield Cup Review we picked out Mutual Regard as the best of the European challengers and Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride. The Irish-trained gelding has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but runs well fresh and could provide former top jockey Johnny Murtagh with the biggest win of his fledgling training career.

The Group 3 Geelong Cup proved a farcical affair with a stop-go gallop but it eventually went to Caravan Rolls On, formerly trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam in England. Now with Danny O’Brien, he is very unlikely to get into the race at Flemington. Connections are hoping that he receives a 2kg penalty to boost his chances of sneaking in.

Junoob will still take his chance in the Cup despite finishing only seventh at Caulfield. He was pushed up early on to try to overcome a wide draw but ending up racing wide and did well to plug on into seventh place. Trainer Chris Waller is still chasing a first win in the great race.

Andreas Wohler’s German stayer Protectionist is still all the rage after his eye-catching run into fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. Ryan Moore has the ride on the Group 2 winner and will be hoping for better luck than he has experienced on Mount Athos (2012) and Dandino last year. The market could get a further shake-up after Fawkner runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday.

*Ante-post Mutual Regard 20-1 Paddy Power

Caulfield Cup Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Melbourne Cup – Runner-by-Runner Guide

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Over two months ago I put up Dandino (33-1) and Simenon (25-1) and both have made it safely to the big race. Better still, they have come through their prep races with flying colours and survived the lottery of the draw! It is an incredibly hot race this year and there are plenty of dangers. If you haven’t “played” yet, I wouldn’t put you off either horse and still think Dandino offers some value at a top price of 11-1 with 888Sport.

European runners enjoyed a fantastic Breeders’ Cup and I’m pleased to say that we came out on top with three winners from six selections including the impressive Outstrip at 6-1. It was so nearly four but The Fugue was just run out of it by Magician in the closing stages. Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best and his confidence will be sky high as he gets the leg up on Dandino.

As I mentioned previously, I have been impressed with Fiorente all the way through his preparation and expect him to be in the frame whilst Sea Moon is the class horse of the race. He may not have won over this trip yet but he stayed well enough to finish third in the St Leger in 2011 and he may have had a bit up his sleeve in the Herbert Power. I’m taking the best odds on those two as “cover bets” but will be cheering on Dandino and Simenon at 4.00am UK time!

Dandino 33-1*

Simenon 25-1*

Sea Moon 14-1 Coral

Fiorente 15-2 888Sport

*Ante-post advised

 

Complete Guide to the 24 runners

 

Fawkner

The Caulfield Cup winner held off the late challenge of Dandino but I’d be disappointed if the placings are not reversed this time. Dandino had to overcome a terrible draw whilst Fawkner had a pretty clear run. He is one of six Lloyd Williams runners and certainly has the form to make the first four at least.

 

Dunaden

The winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012 but has not shown quite the same sparkle this year. Jamie Spencer has teamed up with him this season and faces an interesting challenge from barrier 1. Not one for me but still a great favourite with Melbourne Cup fans.

 

Green Moon

Green Moon added his name to Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007) as the fourth winner of the race owner Lloyd Williams. He’s slipped into the field almost unnoticed this year and his Cox Plate rate was not that far behind last year’s effort. His loyal followers will be hoping for a good run at a big price.

 

Red Cadeaux

If Trainer Ed Dunlop has started to joke about Red Cadeaux’s age catching up with him and any lingering hopes of finally getting his head in front must have disappeared with the 23 draw.  As admirable as he is, there is surely going to be something more sprightly to beat him this year.

 

Sea Moon

A high class colt for Sir Michael Stoute in England, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. He seems to have adapted well to his new surroundings and is going to be a real threat if he stays the trip. Simenon was not far behind him in the Herbert Power but Sea Moon gave the impression that he could have found more if needed.

 

Super Cool

All of Super Cool’s form is over shorter distances and this is a real shot in the dark. A fading fifth in the Cox Plate didn’t offer any clues as to his prospects of lasting out here and looks a big outsider

 

Voleuse De Coeurs

Voleuse De Coeurs did not seem anything special until blitzing the field by six lengths in the Irish St Leger. The four-year-old was immediately snapped up in a private deal and sent out to Australia specifically for this race. There are no doubts on stamina but a 21 barrier draw could make things difficult.

 

Fiorente

Gai Waterhouse is looking for her first win in the Melbourne Cup and Fiorente has been prepared with this race in mind all season. He made his Australian debut in this event 12 months ago and was only beaten a length at odds of 30-1. He has been running on well over trips well short of his best and looks the best of the home challenge.

 

Hawkspur

Hawkspur caught the eye when flying through up the inside to finish fifth in the Turnbull Stakes but a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup again left him too much to do. He is a habitual slow starter and anyone supporting him will be holding their breath through the early stages. He would need everything to go his way to win this but has the ability.

 

Tres Blue

Most of the attention will be Fiorente for Gai Waterhouse but she also saddles this promising French import. Without a prep run in Australia, so running in the big one first time out just as his stable companion did last year. A Group 2 winner in France and one of the unknown quantities in the field.

 

Brown Panther

This one is owned by former England soccer international Michael Owen and has already enjoyed big race success this year in the Goodwood Cup. He had a minor setback after that race and has had a slightly rushed preparation but has been catching the eye with his trackwork down under. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him sneak into the frame at a big price.

 

Foreteller

Foreteller burst on to the Melbourne Cup scene with his shock victory over Puissance De Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The big question for his supporters is whether he can stay the Melbourne Cup trip. He made eye-catching late headway to finish fourth in the Cox Plate and will be one of several hoping for a sedate gallop.

 

Ethiopia

Most of the field go into the race on the back of a good recent run but that cannot be said of Ethiopia. He was beaten 64 lengths when finishing last 12 months ago but that was due to an injury. If this one pops up it will be a great result for the bookies!

 

Dandino

Anyone who reads my posts will know that I have been following this fellow all season and am sitting on a 33-1 voucher. He won the American St Leger in good style prior to running a cracker in the Caulfield Cup and jockey Ryan Moore is in flying form. I’m surprised that he is still as high as 11-1 in the UK and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

 

Verema

His Highness the Aga Khan has his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and it is by no means impossible that he could win it. Verema is trained by Alain de Royer Dupre of Americain fame and this filly has a very similar profile.  I very nearly included her in my cover bets and it would not surprise me in the least if she is in the first four.

 

Mourayan

Trainer Robert Hickmott has better claims with Sea Moon, Fawkner, Green Moon, Seville and Masked Marvel. Mourayan did win the Sydney Cup so he has the stamina but it would be a major shock if he proved good enough to win.

 

Seville

Seville was up to classic standard when trained by Aidan O’Brien, beaten only by Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby in 2011. He was absolutely slammed by Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur and has had his problems since going to Australia. Has been well backed in the past couple of weeks so a big run cannot be ruled out.

 

Dear Demi

Dear Demi won the Group 2 Furious Stakes and later chased home Commanding Jewel in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She enjoyed Group 1 success in the Crown Oaks at Flemington last year but is unproven over this distance. Only last weekend she just failed to peg back Side Glance in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes and this race may come too quickly.

 

Mount Athos

I was a big supporter of this one last year but a poor draw and a bumpy ride sealed his fate, eventually running on into fifth. Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani has been second with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008) but insists that Mount Athos is better than either of those. His response to another wide draw was very succinct – “damn it!” I fear that he will again struggle to get involved from barrier 22.

 

Royal Empire

Godolphin’s quest for a Melbourne Cup winner started way back in 1998 and Royal Empire is their only surviving entry this year. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury but has been beaten twice since. Kerrin McEvoy will give him a good ride but a place may be the best that he can hope for.

 

Masked Marvel

The 2011 English St Leger has been slow to find his form in Australia but, in truth, he had lost his way in Europe long before he arrived down under. He would need to produce his best effort for a long time in order to feature here and will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

 

Simenon

If Dandino doesn’t win it, then I’m hoping that Simenon does. He is certainly better than a 25-1 shot judged on his fine effort when third in the Herbert Power Stakes. I am a little concerned at Richard Hughes having to sweat down to his lowest weight for the ride but Simenon can be ridden from anywhere and does have a finishing kick.

 

Ibicenco

The German-bred has just snatched a place by virtue of his win in a particularly weak looking renewal of the Geelong Cup. He was no great shakes when trained by Luca Cumani and I would be surprised if he proves good enough here.

 

Ruscello

On all known form, 50-1 is a fair price for the Lexus Stakes winner. Even his connections seriously doubted that he could make the line-up and they have Kerrin McEvoy to thank for his brilliant front-running ride on Saturday.

 

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I tipped Dandino at 33-1 over two months ago and his price has now contracted to as short as 6-1 after his excellent run in the Caulfield Cup last week. I feared the worst when he was drawn in barrier 19 but Craig Williams rode him in a very similar way to 2012 winner Dunaden, refusing to panic in the early stages and making relentless progress up the home straight.

There is no question that he put in a first rate prep for the Melbourne Cup and I wouldn’t swap my 33-1 ticket for any other horse at the moment. That run came off the back of a game success in the American St Leger following a light campaign over shorter distances in Europe. Trainer Marco Botti has already shown that he knows how to prepare one for the Cup with Jakkalberry grabbing a place in the frame 12 months ago.

I also put up Irish hope Simenon at 25-1 and he has also shaped encouragingly with an excellent third in the Herbert Power Stakes. A victory there would have guaranteed him a place in the starting line-up but he now requires seven horses to drop out. You would have to be optimistic that he will get his chance and he is now a top-priced 20-1. Having finished second in the Ascot Gold Cup in June, he will relish the step up in trip and will hopefully get a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

I’m happy with both selections at this stage and will not be adding to them, at least until the draw is made. The one I fear most is former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Fiorente. He also ran a fantastic trial and seems to have had the perfect build up for the big race. Mount Athos is quite short at 10-1 but he needs everything to go his way whilst Puissance de Lune has drifted out to 11-1 after a run of defeats.

Verema, Voleuse des Coeurs and Tres Blue are all going there with the potential to cause an upset and it promises to be a great race. If you’ve taken the 33-1 Dandino, keep your fingers crossed that he gets to the race in great shape and is given a better barrier draw at Flemington.

Dandino 33-1 “16th August

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

Makybe Diva Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The futures betting for the Melbourne Cup this year has been dominated by the grey Puissance De Lune who is trading as 5-1 favourite. His position as outright market leader could come under threat this weekend as Sea Moon makes his long awaited debut in Australia.

European fans will be very familiar with Sea Moon who was trained by Sir Michael Stoute until finishing down the field in the Arc last season. He first made the headlines when bolting up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He went into that race on the back of a victory in a handicap off a mark of 92. After being held up by Richard Hughes, he cruised through to lead over a furlong from home still hard on the steel. When Hughes pressed the button, Sea Moon stretched clear to win by eight lengths from Al Kazeem.

It would be foolish to take that form literally as Al Kazeem is clearly a much improved performer this season. He slammed last year’s Derby winner Camelot in Ireland before winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Coral Eclipse at Sandown park. Not surprisingly, Sea Moon was a short priced favourite for the St Leger but could only stay on into third place behind Masked Marvel after meeting with interference. Connections were understandably disappointed but he proved that running to be all wrong when running at the Breeders’ Cup.

Although proving no match for St Nicholas Abbey, he ran on well to finish second, beaten just over 2 lengths. He had to work hard to hold off Dandino at Goodwood on his first start as a four-year-old but was back to his brilliant best when winning at Royal Ascot. His victory in the Hardwicke Stakes reads like a “Who’s who” of recent Melbourne Cup races. He beat Dunaden and Red Cadeaux by three and a half lengths and three-quarters of a length. Jakkalberry was fifth, Fiorente was sixth and  My Quest For Peace finished tenth.

He went on to finish a close fifth in the King George at Ascot before struggling in the heavy ground in the Arc. His official rating in the UK was 124. Puissance de Lune has been simply awesome and the variety of distances that the top Australian horses are asked to race over is quite astonishing compared to their European competitors. The grey won over 13 furlongs last season and was last seen winning over seven furlongs in August. This weekend’s race is just short of a mile, a distance half a mile short of anything tackled by Sea Moon since 2011.

Puissance de Lune will be making his debut at Group 1 level and will meet his rivals on weight-for-age terms. Masked Marvel is also making his Australian debut but his victory in the Leger (2937m) suggests he will be struggling for pace. The field also includes the Anthony Freedman-trained Waldpark who finished half a length second to leading Arc hope Novellist on his last start in Germany.

One horse that will not be inconvenienced by the trip is former Henry Cecil-trained Jet Away. The six-year-old has won the Golden Mile (1600m) and Group 3 Easter Cup (2000m) since arriving from England. 2012 Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and three-time Group 1 winner Manighar are also in the line-up.

The bookmakers are showing Puissance de Lune at $1.70 for Saturday’s race. He has fitness on his side but Sea Moon ($8.00) and Jet Away ($13.00) are serious opponents. If they are fit enough to do themselves justice on Saturday we could see a major shake-up in the futures market for Flemington.

Sea Moon $8.00 Sportsbet

Jet Away $13.00 Sportsbet

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365