Once a year there is a grade one race that takes place on a Tuesday morning at 4am. Once a year some European raiders head down under in an attempt to bring home the largest prize Australia has to offer.
Last years race was won by Dunaden(FR), with Red Cadeux (UK) in 2nd. I backed Red Cadeux last year at 20-1 and was gutted when I saw the still on the line.. How unlucky was this?
NAP – Dunaden – 04:00 – Flemington 13-2 William Hill 25pts
Now, you might be thinking, why am I napping a horse that beat mine the previous year? After my sob story I gave you about losing by a nostril hair? I’ve had my fingers crossed that Red Cadeux may show some sparkle over the past year to make me want to back him for the Melbourne cup again, but there isn’t any.
Since this day, Dunaden has beaten Red Cadeux 3 ¼ lengths in the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot in June and 1 ½ lengths in the Hong Kong Vase. There is nothing to suggest RC can get the upper hand over Dunaden, unless something wrong happens in the race that impedes my NAP.
This is a strong selection from me. I don’t understand why the Aussies are gambling on Amercain, he’s shown nothing (like RC) in the build-up to this and is currently the $5 (5-1) favourite, madness.
NEXT BEST – Mount Athos – 19:10 04:00 Flemington 6-1 B365 10pts
This was almost the nap, well I say almost, it was strongly considered before common sense prevailed and I went for Dunaden. Mount Athos has done nothing wrong this year, winning 3 two listed races then a group 3 (demolishing the group 1 placing brown panther by 3+ lengths). This was tipped up to me 3 months ago at 14-1 and I chose to rest on it. I am now regretting not making a small investment at over double the current available odds, that’s punting for you. Mount Athos has been hyped up by the british media after strong comments from his owner Dr Marwan Koukash, and, to be fair, I also would happily hype up a horse in the form of its life. If its travelled ok and eaten up, it has to be there or there about.
Outsider with a shout: Green Moon – 18-1 BetVictor
Been keeping tabs on this horse after it won the turnbull stakes (group1) by ½ length in early October. Digging through its form I noticed it has glimpses of fine form. Winning big handicaps at the highest level domestically, but could never run a string of wins together. Sometimes it bombed .It was the well supported favorite for the Cox plate 2 weeks ago and could only manage 7th, having prior to that won a group 1 handicap. This time last year it took part in the Group 3 lexus stakes and went off as the 8/5 favourite, and finished 12 of 13.
He’s 18-1 as he doesn’t win often enough and hasn’t done the 2 mile distance.. He’s done 1m5f. What you need if you back this is for your horse to wake up on the right side of the bed, and to handle the extra distance, he’s won at Flemington on the same course, so the course isn’t a worry. All in all I feel this is a poor renewal of the Melbourne cup. The fact Maluckyday is the shortest of the aussie/NZ horses tells you that. That horse hasn’t won for over 2 years.
