UAE 1000 Guineas Preview

A couple of weeks ago we enjoyed a welcome distraction in Dubai with Wedding Ring winning impressively for Charlie Appleby. The filly earned a quote of 25-1 for the Newmarket Guineas but she may not be the best of the Godolphin team.

Last season I was a big fan of Ihtimal and she returns to action tomorrow in the UAE 1000 Guineas and a clash with Wedding Ring. The two met at Newmarket in July with the latter coming out on top by a quarter of a length but it was Ihtimal that went on to Group 2 success.

She is a daughter of Shamardal out of a Dubai Destination mare and went on to finish third to Berkshire at Royal Ascot before losing her maiden tag in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes. That was her first run at seven furlongs and she was even more impressive in taking the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster in September.

Silvestre De Sousa held her up before swooping late and quickly putting two lengths between herself and Majeyda.  She was given one more run in the Fillies Mile back at Newmarket later that month but De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics. He was up against some smart fillies and gave Ihtimal a lot do, running on strongly to finish three lengths behind Chriselliam and Rizeena. Chriselliam went on to win at the Breeders’ Cup and that is the best form among the fillies last year.

On official figures, Ihtimal has around 8lbs in hand of Wedding Ring and it would be no surprise to see them finish 1, 2. Mick De Kock saddles three in the race with Christophe Soumillon preferring Mensoora. The daughter of Jet Master was disappointing behind Certify last week and will need to step up considerably to trouble the Godolphin pair.

Illuminating Dream is an interesting runner for David Brown in the colours of Qatar Racing. She won well at Beverley in August but was beaten by Bremner at Ayr on her final start. She is by High Chaparral so is bred to get a trip and the same could be said of Feedyah, a game winner over a mile at Ascot on her final start at two years.

Oxsana has finished behind Wedding Ring on all three occasions that the pair have met. Her best effort was when getting to within a quarter of a length over six furlongs at Newmarket. She is well held on her last run at Meydan.

Ihtimal 15-8 Bet365

Meydan Thursday Preview

The Guineas meeting at Newmarket may seem a long way off to those of us sheltering in storm-lashed Britain but Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin are already sifting through their classic contenders. The meeting at Meydan stages trials for both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas and there are plenty of familiar names on show tomorrow.

Wedding Ring was as genuine a two-year-old as you could wish to see last season, ending her season by picking up two valuable sales races at Newmarket. I am not a fan of those races but Sheikh Mohammed won’t have been complaining as Wedding Ring picked up a cool £400,000 for her efforts.

She raced six times, beating Ihtimal on her debut before finishing fifth at Royal Ascot. Ihtimal went on to prove the better filly and is on my short list for classic success in 2014 but Wedding Ring improved as the season went on. She only held Oxsana by a neck over six furlongs but extended that to almost two and a half lengths over seven.

Autumn Lily was a bit unpredictable with three wins and two duck eggs in her first season. She is undoubtedly useful and it is interesting that she is rated 3lbs higher than Wedding Ring. I’ll side with the latter and hope that she continues where she left off at Newmarket.

Emirates Flyer is the form horse in the 2000 Guineas trial but this is an altogether tougher assignment with 18 runners. The son of Acclamation showed that he is not fazed by big fields when just failing in the Redcar two-year-old trophy on his final start. He had previously chased home 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Kingman at Sandown. He did look a little outclassed that day but time may show that to be no disgrace.

There are lots of unknown quantities here including the two trained by South African Mick de Kock. Safety Check was also useful as a two-year-old whilst Figure Of Speech lost his form after some early promise. I haven’t given up on Nezar who can be forgiven his closing effort at Newmarket but may want further than this seven furlongs now.

Cambridgeshire runner-up Code Of Honor has joined the ranks of Godolphin after a promising season with Henry Candy. He ran a blinder when just failing in the Cambridgeshire and looks capable of stepping up into Listed class this year. This looks an ideal starting point and Kieren Fallon will be doing the pushing and shoving.

Wedding Ring @5-2 Bet365

Emirates Flyer @4-1 Bet365

Code Of Honor @9-2 Bet365

Dubai World Cup Preview – Part 1

The richest race night in the world is nearly upon us and here is our big night preview. We at BetCirca relgiously follow Meydan with a few to finding value on the big night, and we’ve already tipped up Planteur at 25-1 and Hunter’s light at 5-1 for the big race, in this article we’ll focus on the Dubai Duty Free and the Sheema Classic.

Trade Storm – Dubai Duty Free 11/2 Paddy Power Win
French Fifteen – Dubai Duty Free 14-1 Coral EW
This is a tough race. Ocean Park is a group 1 winner down in Australia. The only donwside to this horse is the fact he has to travel to Dubai from Aus, although he’s won in both NZ and Aus, so travelling isnt a huge issue, that said, dubai is much further away. Additionally, the horse hasn’t run in Dubai before. He’s a massive threat to our selection if he takes to the conditions however.I’m a big Trade Storm fan. He won his latest Group 2 race cheekily, cutting through the field to win easily. Jamie Spencer even had time to look over at Christophe Soumillion on the run over and give him a wave, that’s how cheeky it was. This is a big ask for Trade Storm, he’s up against a seasoned campaigner in Ocean Park, but we’re confident he can put in a solid performance. If Each-way at 11/2 is your thing, he could well be an EW bet to nothing.

French Fifteen is our each-way selection however. This horse came 2nd to Camelot in the 2000 guineas by a neck. It actually led for a few strides but was pegged back by Camelot on the line. Since then he’s done absolutely nothing. Well beaten twice since then. But if he puts in the same performance he did against Camelot he could be a great each-way shout, we shall see if he can do that.

Gentildonna – Dubai Sheema Classic 2-1 Paddy Power Win
Sharestan – Dubai Sheema Classic 20-1 William Hill EW

Gentildonna is the most likely winner. Let me make that clear now. He comes over to Meydan with a reputation as a multiple group 1 winner in Japan. He beat Orfeve who really should of won the Arc De Triomphe when scooting 4l clear with 1 furlong to go, and ended up getting chinned on the line by Solemia.

This horse is 6 from 7 in group races, which is a cracking record in the context of this race. Again, there are concerns about how well he’ll travel, having never left Japan. This is a minor concern, but this sort of scenario is an issue across the whole Dubai World Cup card.

St Nicholas Abbey is a danger, but the disappointment of his 3rd in the Turf race at the Breeders cup behind Little Mike is still playing on alot of peoples minds. Gentildonna has solid claims here, and has to be strongly respected.

Sharestan is our each-way poke. First up at Meydan he won with ease, his 2nd start was disappointing. SDS got him boxed in on the rail behind a wall of horses, a gap appeared with 1/2 a furlong to go, but it was too late. He flew to finish 3rd. His last race he was only 4 lengths off the winner in a group 1. At 20-1, he could be a cracking EW bet should he be able to cling onto a place.