The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of my favourite races of the National Hunt season. The roll of honour includes names like Burrough Hill Lad, Bonanza Boy, Carvill’s Hill, Riverside Boy, Master Oats and Earth Summit.
It is well established as a trial for the Grand National with more recent winners including Bindaree and Silver Birch plus Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronized. There are the occasional shock winners, notably Dream Alliance in 2009 and Mountainous last year.
Mountainous is back again attempting a repeat for Richard Lee but may struggle to confirm the form with runner-up Hawkes Point. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old ran the race of his life when going under by just a head and will have been sharpened up by his run here at the start of the month. He is racing off just a 2lbs higher mark this time and will have been aimed at this race for some time.
I had Shotgun Paddy in mind for this race after watching him slog his way to victory at Warwick last season. He made a couple of costly errors when runner-up to Midnight Prayer at the Cheltenham festival but it is the increase in the weights that has put me off his chances. He must now carry 11st 12lb which is a daunting prospect for such an inexperienced chaser.
Alan King’s Midnight Prayer had a length and a quarter to spare that day and is as tough as old boots. The Hennessy Gold Cup always looked likely to prove a little too hot for him but he jumped well before fading in the home straight. He is 8lbs better off with Shotgun Paddy and that has to give him a leading chance. He looks great each-way value at around 11-1.
Monbeg Dude won here in 2013 ran an eye-catching race in the Hennessy. He stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Many Clouds. He has a touch of class having won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last December and finished a respectable seventh in the Grand National. The worry for his supporters is the weight as he is up 18lbs in the handicap since his win in this race.
Benvolio gave 3lbs and a two-length beating to Midnight Prayer when the two met at Newbury last year and is 5lbs better off with the King runner. He also holds Gas Line Boy on that form and ran well when fourth behind Court By Surprise at Wincanton in November. He does not have that much chasing experience but makes more appeal than David Pipe’s Amigo who was only seventh here a year ago.
Midnight Prayer @11-1 32Red
Benvolio @14-1 Coral
Each-way ¼ odds 1,2,3,4
