Tag: Monbeg Dude

Midnight Prayer can take Chepstow marathon

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of my favourite races of the National Hunt season. The roll of honour includes names like Burrough Hill Lad, Bonanza Boy, Carvill’s Hill, Riverside Boy, Master Oats and Earth Summit.

It is well established as a trial for the Grand National with more recent winners including Bindaree and Silver Birch plus Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronized. There are the occasional shock winners, notably Dream Alliance in 2009 and Mountainous last year.

Mountainous is back again attempting a repeat for Richard Lee but may struggle to confirm the form with runner-up Hawkes Point. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old ran the race of his life when going under by just a head and will have been sharpened up by his run here at the start of the month. He is racing off just a 2lbs higher mark this time and will have been aimed at this race for some time.

I had Shotgun Paddy in mind for this race after watching him slog his way to victory at Warwick last season. He made a couple of costly errors when runner-up to Midnight Prayer at the Cheltenham festival but it is the increase in the weights that has put me off his chances. He must now carry 11st 12lb which is a daunting prospect for such an inexperienced chaser.

Alan King’s Midnight Prayer had a length and a quarter to spare that day and is as tough as old boots. The Hennessy Gold Cup always looked likely to prove a little too hot for him but he jumped well before fading in the home straight. He is 8lbs better off with Shotgun Paddy and that has to give him a leading chance. He looks great each-way value at around 11-1.

Monbeg Dude won here in 2013 ran an eye-catching race in the Hennessy. He stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Many Clouds. He has a touch of class having won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last December and finished a respectable seventh in the Grand National. The worry for his supporters is the weight as he is up 18lbs in the handicap since his win in this race.

Benvolio gave 3lbs and a two-length beating to Midnight Prayer when the two met at Newbury last year and is 5lbs better off with the King runner. He also holds Gas Line Boy on that form and ran well when fourth behind Court By Surprise at Wincanton in November. He does not have that much chasing experience but makes more appeal than David Pipe’s Amigo who was only seventh here a year ago.

Midnight Prayer @11-1 32Red

Benvolio @14-1 Coral

Each-way ¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Grand National 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Grand National is finally upon us with forty horses set to tackle the famous fences and nearly four and a half miles at Aintree. It looks as if the going is likely to be almost perfect so there should be no excuses on that score for beaten horses. Only Godsmejudge (33-1) has failed to turn up from our ante-post selections so here is the final run-down.

Teaforthree (adv. 25-1)

Rebecca Curtis is reportedly delighted with his condition after the Cheltenham Gold Cup and believes that he is in better shape than a year ago. He finished third that day with Nick Scholfield aboard and the combination must have a great chance. I think 8-1 is very short for anything in this race but I’d imagine the bookies will be pushing him out to 10-1 or 11-1 tonight in order to balance the books.

Monbeg Dude (adv. 25-1)

At the start of the season I felt that this fellow may be too small and need soft ground to win a National. He shattered my theories when jumping superbly to win at Cheltenham on good ground, although he did not reproduce that at Doncaster last time. He has “The Head Waiter” Paul Carberry on board so we may need binoculars to find him early on. I fear that they may go too quick for him but hopefully he can work his way into it second time around.

Triolo D’Alene (adv. 25-1)

I re-invested some of my Hennessy Gold Cup winnings on this one for Aintree but his odds have been going in the other direction since a puzzling run in the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson suddenly seemed to do an about-turn and rated him “a player” at Cheltenham but he was never involved. I did read that he had breathing difficulties during the race so, assuming that the problem has been rectified, all is not lost.

Big Shu (adv. 40-1)

I added the Irish raider to my portfolio after his third in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. He was given a lot of ground to make up that day and faded a little towards the finish but it was only his second start of the season. He still looks a rattling good each-way bet to me.

Vintage Star (89-1 Betfair)

I always look through the outsiders on the day in case I have overlooked something. I keep going back to Vintage Star because he has moved into a winning position in some decent races without getting home in the heavy ground. It is difficult to tell from his form whether he will improve for better ground but he has a squeak.

Doncaster Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With the Cheltenham festival now so close, it is no surprise to see a lack of top performers in action at Newbury and Doncaster this weekend. The exception is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase where several Grand National entries are put to the test.

The one that stands out is Monbeg Dude who was due to run in the Haydock Grand National Trial a couple of weeks ago. He was pulled out at the last minute due to an unsatisfactory scope. I believe that will prove to be a blessing in disguise as the race was run in atrocious conditions. It resulted in a 1-2 for Venetia Williams with Rigadin De Beauchene coming home clear of Emperor’s Choice.

Had Monbeg Dude taken his chance there, it may well have set him back for Aintree and he will be far happier at Doncaster. I fell into the trap of having him down as a mudlark after his wins at Cheltenham and Chepstow last season but he proved me wrong in some style last time out.

I supported Theatre Guide on the strength of his excellent third in the Hennessy Gold Cup and he looked to be travelling best for most of the race. That was until Monbeg Dude moved up to him approaching the last and made him look very ordinary. He has been raised 8lbs for that victory but looks attractively priced at around 6-1 on Saturday.

Michael Scudamore’s nine-year-old is clearly being aimed at Aintree but Paul Carberry can produce him late to capture this valuable prize. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Godsmejudge who I have backed at 33-1 for the National. The Scottish National winner can be forgiven his poor Sandown run as Alan King shut down his yard shortly afterwards due to a virus.

Emma Lavelle’s Court By Surprise is the early favourite after finishing second to There’s No Panic in the London National. The form for that race has been torn to shreds with the third, fourth and fifth all running badly next time.

Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup has attracted a modest bunch and I’m inclined to take a chance with the veteran Dashing George at 8-1. He is old enough to run in the veteran’s race earlier in the card but looked on good terms with himself when winning at Fakenham last time. He almost unseated his rider at the first but settled into a good rhythm and a similar effort might prove good enough against some in-and-out performers.

Monbeg Dude at 6-1 Bet Victor (Grimthorpe Chase)

Dashing George at 8-1 Paddy Power (Greatwood Gold Cup)

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weights were announced today for the Aintree Grand National on April 5th. This means that trainers can now stop attempting to pull the wool over the handicapper’s eyes as the die is cast!

The handicapper has decided to be lenient to the 13-year-old Tidal Bay and has reduced his rating to keep him closer to his rivals, albeit with top weight of 11st 10lb. It is not only the weight but also the fact that no horse of his age has won the National for over 90 years.

You cannot criticise his performances this season with a gallant third in the Welsh National under 11st 12lb and a good second to Last Instalment in the Irish Hennessy on Sunday. You could see him finishing third or fourth in the Gold Cup but Paul Nicholls has decided to go for the National and good luck to them.

Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock has attracted several leading National hopes, none more so than Michael Scudamore’s Monbeg Dude. He was beaten a country mile in this last year by Well Refreshed and is 7lbs better off Gary Moore’s gelding. In terms of subsequent form, they have gone in opposite directions. Monbeg Dude won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last time whereas Well Refreshed was pulled up in the Welsh National.

Moore has reported that Well Refreshed returned a sick horse from Chepstow and that his work and tests will decide his participation this week. I really fancied him in the Welsh National but it is difficult to be confident after such a poor run. You would have to side with Monbeg Dude who has 10st 9lb in the National and could be the clear favourite if he wins this.

Venetia Williams could run last year’s runner-up Rigadin De Beauchene and Ffos Las winner Emperor’s Choice. The former has not run for a long time and will surely be found out on this ground while Emperor’s Choice landed a nice gamble last time but this looks a much tougher task.

The big danger to Monbeg Dude looks to be Hawkes Point who ran a great race at Chepstow, just failing to catch Mountainous. The form of the race is difficult to assess but Tidal Bay was just behind him and ran well in Ireland. Nicholls has not enjoyed the best of luck in recent weeks with several of his stable stars beaten but you’d have to consider Hawkes Point a major contender here.

He, along with Merry King and Godsmejudge, are also entered at Ascot but you would imagine Nicholls will go for the stronger trial. Three miles at Ascot may not be sufficient a stamina test for this out-and-out stayer.

Monbeg Dude at 7-1 William Hill

Hawkes Point at 8-1 Boylesports, Unibet, 888Sport

Grand National ante-post update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral