Tag: Moviesta

York Wednesday Preview

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The Dante meeting starts at York on Wednesday with a very competitive card. The big race itself is looking likely to be something of a damp squib after Roger Varian’s curious decision to sidestep the race with Kingston Hill.

I’d have thought it was an ideal stepping-stone to Epsom after his eighth place in the 2000 Guineas. You could excuse him for finding it all happening too quickly at Newmarket and it is too early to rule him out of Derby calculations. Unfortunately it seems we will have no further opportunities to assess his chances.

Tomorrow’s classic clues are provided by the Musidora Stakes with the once-raced Cambridge being the one in the Oaks frame. She did look a class act when accounting for Regardez last season at Nottingham but I am just a bit concerned by the form of the Charlie Hills stable after Chester. I fancied several of his runners there but he drew a blank, something that his father rarely did at the Roodeye. I’m going to side with Regardez each-way as she looks a game filly who should at least stick on for a place.

Rye House seems to be all the rage in the opener but I’m equally concerned by the fact that most of the Stoute horses have needed a run. He won well here last season but never made it back to the track. Tres Coronas was a good winner at Chester but is running under a penalty and it could be worth a little on Hi There who was in front of him at Epsom.

Royal Rascal caught my eye running on well on his last run for Tim Easterby and could be a better bet than stable companion Fast Shot. Blaine could be interesting if he is back to his Gimcrack form of a couple of seasons ago but he has a poor draw to overcome.

I kept faith in Moviesta last season and was eventually rewarded at Goodwood after a couple of near-misses in big handicaps. He shaped well at Newmarket behind Sole Power and is my selection in the Duke Of York. Jack Dexter is the one to beat on form but the ground may be drying out.

In the fifth race I like the look of That Is The Spirit who won with plenty in hand at Doncaster from Provident Spirit. The runner-up won well at Newmarket but I cannot see the form being turned around on just 3lbs different terms.

Hi There 1.45 York at 12-1 Ladbrokes

Royal Rascal 2.15 York at 11-1 William Hill

Regardez 2.45 York at 9-1 BetVictor

Moviesta 3.15 York at 6-1 Bet365

That Is The Spirit 3.50 York at 4-1 BetVictor

York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Preview

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The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.

The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.

Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.

The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.

Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.

Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power

Simenon 13-8 William Hill

Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365

*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post

Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante-Post Preview

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Lethal Force may have established himself as the top sprinter in UK and Ireland with victories at Royal Ascot and Newmarket but he is not among the entries for the Nunthorpe. Sole Power and Shea Shea, both behind Clive Cox’s grey in the July Cup, are currently 5-1 joint-favourites but both have had plenty of racing.

Last week I was celebrating keeping faith with Moviesta when he won the King George Stakes after two unlucky defeats in top three-year-old handicaps. I was surprised to read that trainer Brian Smart was “stunned” by Moviesta’s performance. Having witnessed the horse fly jumping in his earlier races I always felt that he would settle better off a really fast pace and Goodwood’s five-furlong dash fitted the bill perfectly. He ran out a convincing winner with many of the season’s leading sprinters left trailing in his wake.

Three-year-olds have a decent record in the Nunthorpe in recent seasons with Sole Power and Margot Did winning in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Is Moviesta in that class? I think he is and he rates a cracking each-way bet at 8-1. Smart has already declared his intention to run and there aren’t any obvious ground concerns for the improving gelding.

Of the favourites, I respect Sole Power most because this is his trip. He too needs a really fast pace to produce his best and he could not quite sustain his run over six furlongs at Newmarket. He is going to be a threat if he can be kept ticking over after a long season that started way back in the spring in Dubai. I have the same reservations about Shea Shea and he races as though six furlongs is more his cup of tea.

Reckless Abandon has missed some key engagements through minor knocks this season but showed plenty of promise at Haydock earlier in the season. I still feel that six furlongs will suit him better than five and I think that was his undoing at Ascot.

Society Rock is the pick of the remainder after some consistent efforts. He grabbed Lethal Force on the line at York in the Duke Of York Stakes and is a tough, seasoned competitor in these events. I don’t see a threat coming from anything that finished behind Moviesta at Goodwood and I can see his price contracting still further before the race.

Moviesta 8-1 Paddy Power

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Brown Panther got us back on the winning trail in the Goodwood Cup which sets us up nicely for a tilt at Friday’s action-packed card. Some days are not very inspiring but just about every race looks tempting with the Betfair Mile (formerly Schweppes Golden Mile) being the big betting race.

Looking back at past winners I have to say that this race owes me a few quid! My trials and tribulations go back to a horse called Desert Dirham who was then trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was an ante-post gamble from 10-1 down to 2-1 but was drawn wide and just about brought down trying to get a run in the straight. It is not a race that you can approach with confidence, particularly if you fancy a hold up horse that is drawn high.

Stirring Ballad’s disastrous run at Royal Ascot has been well documented but, just in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap. Richard Hughes decides that he is drawn on the wrong side so takes her diagonally across the track to the stands side. He gets no room at any stage and the side he was originally on turns out to be well ahead at the finish. Less publicised was the same manoeuvre taken by Prince Of Johanne (our ante-post selection) in the same race. He came out and won the Coral Challenge next time out.

Stirring Ballad is drawn four in the Mile and should be able to tuck in behind the pace from there and deliver her challenge late. Other fancied hold up horses are Wentworth (13), Dance And Dance (1) and Cape Peron (5). I like Henry Candy’s colt a lot but I’m just a little concerned as to whether he can handle the hustle and bustle. The ground should be ideal for both horses provided it doesn’t dry out too much. With 8-1 available about both I think we should support both and hope that their jockeys sit close and don’t mess it up at the start.

The card opens with my old friend Lost In The Moment and I can’t possibly desert him after his brave victory at Newmarket. He survived getting sandwiched and whacked over the head with a whip to get up and win. On form he should not beat his stable companion Masterstroke (3rd in the Arc) but I’m staying loyal in the hope that fitness makes the difference.

Montiridge has looked a really classy performer at times and loomed up in the Jersey Stakes as if he was certain to win. His stable companion Baltic Knight is a tough customer and should make a race of it but 13-8 about reflects Montiridge’s prospects here.

The King George Stakes at 3.40 is packed full with the usual suspects over five furlongs. However, the one that I like here is Moviesta who takes a step up in grade after being pipped in two big handicaps. They just never go quick enough for him in his races and this mad downhill dash should at last give him the chance to settle. I’m also going to have a saver on Duke Of Firenze at long odds. Ryan Moore has decided that the way to ride him is not to bully him and hope that he keeps pace with the others so that he can deliver a short burst at the finish. This worked well in the Epsom Dash but went horribly wrong at Sandown last time.

Grecian looks a decent bet at 8-1 in the nursery after losing narrowly at Ascot. Paul Cole may not be in the major league these days (apart from Ascot winner Berkshire) but he can still produce a good one from time to time.

Pavlosk did us a favour when forming part of a Stoute treble at York earlier in the season. She was supplemented for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but struggled in that company. She will be much more at home here and hopefully the ground won’t be too firm for her either.

Finally, I like Goodwood Mirage in the last. He ran well enough in a competitive race at the Newmarket July meeting but gets a bit further to travel here and the assistance of Frankie Dettori. His name gives away the fact that his owners would dearly love to win at this meeting and 9-2 makes plenty of appeal.

Lost In The Moment 6-1 Totesport
Montiridge 13-8 Bet365
Stirring Ballad 8-1 Totesport
Cape Peron 8-1 William Hill
Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Duke Of Firenze 18-1 William Hill
Grecian 8-1 Ladbrokes
Pavlosk 5-1 Coral
Goodwood Mirage 9-2 Bet365

Newmarket July Meeting Day 2 July 12th

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We got off to a great start on the opening day with Feel Like Dancing (100-30) and what a good ride by William Buick. He never allowed the leader to get too far ahead and his mount kept answering the call despite coming under pressure a long way from home. Even so, I seriously doubt whether it is St Leger form.

We were out of luck in the handicap where Buick’s mount Space Ship was outpaced before staying on again in the closing stages. He may have had enough racing for the time being whilst Goodwood Mirage may want a bit of give in the ground. Thankfully our banker bet on Montiridge (5-6) was never in danger so we’re still in their fighting going into day 2.

The standout bet tomorrow has to be a double on the flying fillies Sky Lantern and Rizeena. The grey was the most impressive winner at the Royal meeting when winning the Coronation Stakes by four lengths from a poor draw. The four-runner field raises question marks over race tactics but I’d think Sky Lantern is the quickest of these off any pace. I would have thought it impossible to get into difficulty with only four runners on Newmarket’s wide expanse but I only need to recall the recent win for Lost In The Moment to realise that is not the case!

Rizeena produced a terrific burst of speed to win the Queen Mary Stakes and I cannot see the extra furlong making any difference to the result here. Fig Roll and Bye Bye Birdie may be useful fillies but Rizeena looked to have a touch of class and I’m happy to put her in a double with Sky Lantern.

William Hill and Coral are both going 10-11 and 11-8 respectively at the time of writing. They may be offering enhanced terms for the double so good luck if you’re prepared to shop around.

The opening race looks tricky and Sir Michael Stoute’s Dream Wild is a bit of a mystery at the bottom of the weights. She put in a very laboured performance when beaten at odds-on at Salisbury and I’m not aware of any excuses. If she bolts up tomorrow we will no doubt find out! I prefer to side with the proven form of Jubilante. She is very closely weighted with Nardin but the booking of Ryan Moore just swings the vote in her favour.

The main betting race of the day is the handicap at 3.15 and I have to keep faith with Moviesta after his gallant effort at York. He was actually fly jumping in the early stages and I was surprised that he still managed to finish second. If he settles better he should win.

Double
Rizeena 11-8 Coral
Sky Lantern 10-11 Coral

Jubilante 6-1 William Hill
Moviesta 8-1 Ladbrokes

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 15th June

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The last Saturday before Royal Ascot always seems to serve up some tricky handicaps to tempt punters into having a dabble before the serious betting starts on Tuesday. This year is no exception with York’s Charity Sprint Trophy a case in point. Can you believe it is possible to back any horse in the field at 10-1 or better?

In my preview article I picked out Moviesta, Vincentti and Lewisham as my three against the field. If you haven’t already placed a bet, you can get 10-1, 14-1 and 16-1 respectively. My advice would be to back anything you fancy now as York has a strong betting market and the favourite will probably be nearer 5-1 by the time the SP’s are returned.

In the 2.40 Westwiththenight is likely to go off favourite after finishing second to Gifted Girl at Ascot. Subsequent events reveal that she would have had to have been up to group class to beat that filly so it was no wonder she was left trailing by five lengths. Gifted Girl finished a fine second at Epsom and looks like a filly to follow.

The handicapper hasn’t done Westwiththenight any favours with 9st 10lb to carry and she may have a battle on her hands against the bottom weight Maven. This one has finished second twice at a mile and a quarter, running a little too freely for her own good on each occasion. She should settle better with a faster pace here and looks good each-way value.

The listed race at 3.15 is looking as competitive as the big sprint with the bookmakers going 4-1 the field with only eight runners. Plenty of people will be hoping that first time blinkers can persuade Stipulate to put his best foot forward for Lady Cecil whilst Questioning and Ladys First are bound to be in there battling.

It will be interesting to see how the two three-year-olds get on against their elders. Baltic Knight was trounced by Remote last time and if he boosts the form tomorrow you can expect Remote to be the shortest priced favourite in years for the Britannia Handicap. John Gosden usually has his string firing for Royal Ascot so I’m going to stick with Questioning.

Over at Sandown, Smoothtalkinrascal will have gone into more notebooks than Vinnie Jones after flashing home in second place in the Epsom Dash. He steps into listed class and is a warm favourite at around 2-1. My only reservation is that he doesn’t seem the kind of horse to win by far I’ll be hoping that his jockey can produce him at the right moment.

In the 2.20 there is bound to be plenty of support for Ashaadd who rather got Ryan Moore out of jail last time. He was held up behind horses off a slow pace but answered every call to get up close home and beat a useful sort in Homage. Moore can double up in the 4.05 on Defendant for Sir Michael Stoute. This one won his maiden impressively and can take advantage of the weight he receives from the slightly quirky but very talented Pythagorian.

York

Maven 8-1 Coral
Questioning 5-1 Ladbrokes

Sandown

Ashaadd 5-1 Ladbrokes
Smoothtalkinrascal 2-1 Coral
Defendant 9-2 Ladbrokes