Following a 50-1 winner of the Irish National and Aurora’s Encore’s 66-1 triumph at Aintree last weekend, you couldn’t really blame punters for giving the Scottish National a miss. Trainer Sue Smith is apparently considering whether or not to let her National winner take his chance at Ayr under after an 11lb rise in the weights. That may sound steep but is actually only a 5lb higher mark than last year when he was edged out by Merigo.
Whilst every sniff and sneeze was reported for the Aintree participants, we are left to rely largely on guesswork when it comes to the Scottish National. The list of entries looks impressive enough but it is worth remembering that there is no non-runner/no bet rule on offer at the moment so we have to tread carefully.
It seems like half of the Grand National field are entered but it is anybody’s guess whether they will turn up. The races are quite close together this year so I’d have thought the likes of Teaforthree and Cappa Bleu were extremely doubtful. Aintree also-rans include Roberto Goldback, Chicago Grey, Join Together, Across The Bay and Rare Bob. The bookmakers also seem to be in the dark as they have put up Cheltenham faller Rival D’Estruval as their ante-post favourite at 8-1 with Always Right at 10-1 and it is 12-1 bar.
Until we hear otherwise, I’d have thought the best policy would be to draw a line through the Aintree runners and look elsewhere. Rival D’Estruval’s case is obvious enough having looked an unlucky faller in the National Hunt Chase at the festival. He has been declared a definite starter after pleasing in his subsequent work but the race is something of an after-thought and there is no way of telling whether his confidence has been affected. Always Right is a difficult one to assess. He was third in this race two years ago and that is a definite point in his favour. He followed up that run with victory at Kelso but then lost his way completely. I remember him cantering into contention at Haydock in the National Trial before pulling up rapidly.
Last time out he won the Kelso race in which Aurora’s Encore was a fifty-three length sixth! Before getting too carried away, it may be more to the point that he beat the 12-year-old Garleton by a head at level weights. One race that could be worth studying for clues is the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March. Quentin Collonges beat Mr Moss by half a length and they are set to meet on the same terms. Quentin Collonges choked last year in the Scottish National and now wears a tongue strap whilst Mr Moss is trained by Evan Williams, second at Aintree with Cappa Bleu.
There are several younger horses that could be improving, notably the novices Houblon Des Obeaux and Poungach. Neither seem to be particularly well handicapped but Cheltenham winner Same Difference would be interesting if he took his chance. He looks to have plenty of stamina and put up a fine performance to grab Super Duty on the line at the festival. He is set to race off a 7lb higher mark but looks capable of taking the step up. He races in the same colours as Captain Dibble who won the race in 1992.
Silver By Nature and Wyck Hill are on their way back from injury whilst Well Refreshed looks a mudlark who is unlikely to get his conditions here. Godsmejudge ran well enough at Cheltenham but looks decidedly slow. White Star Line is a possible long shot from low in the weights but he looks difficult to win with.
Same Difference 14-1 Ladbrokes
Quentin Collonges 14-1 Coral
Mr Moss 20-1 Coral
