Cricket: New dawn for India in emotional decider

India usher in a new era of their test history with a swirl of praise and rumours for their retired guardian Mahendra Singh Dhoni.  The conjecture on the “whys” of Dhoni’s retirement will continue for some time, so the task of silencing them comes down to new captain Virat Kohli and the rest of his team.  Many, including their opponents chief firebrand Mitchell Johnson, are tipping India to have a more aggressive edge under Kohli.  An edge that would certainly help the self belief within the team, but one that also comes with a risk of recklessness.

Australia have less to ponder.  They may consider using Ashton Agar in a second spinner / allrounder role, and they may carefully watch the performance of Shane Watson as to determine his suitability for their next important test cricket assignment – the Ashes – given his continue run of mediocrity.

Sydney traditionally takes more spin than any other local ground, so the teams could spring some surprises at the toss, but the placid nature of most of the pitches this series will help alleviate the Johnson threat (much to his dismay) and should see plenty of runs scored.

The Last Time These Two Met

The MCG encounter had all the bluster and bravado of a pre-bout boxing weigh in, but unfortunately lacked the knock out punches as both teams lost their nerve on the final day.  Amongst all the aggression and agitation the Australians dominated much of the game through their superior lower order batting and India’s inability to build enough pressure with the ball.  Not for the first time in the series Steven Smith and Virat Kohli were the stars with the bat, in this one they lead their teams against each other for the first time.

The Teams

Australia (likely): 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Joe Burns, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Ryan Harris, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

Johnson is injured and could be replaced by Mitchell Starc, Ashton Agar, or Peter Siddle.  We believe they’ll use Starc, who gets the opportunity to once again revive a stop start test career.  He’s been good in the Big Bash League so at the very least he brings with him some good form.

India (likely): 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli (capt), 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Suresh Raina/KL Rahul, 7 Wriddhiman Saha (wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar/Umesh Yadav, 10 Varun Aaron, 11 Ishant Sharma.

India could be tempted to give KL Rahul another go after his terrible debut and may even consider him at the top of the order instead of Dhawan.  If not, Raina will come in at six.  Rumours are he has practiced extensively in the Sydney nets.  Bhuvneshwar Kumar could also come into the mix if he is over his injury concerns; Umesh Yada’s position is the most under threat if he does.  Wriddhiman Saha will take the gloves from MS Dhoni if he recovers from illness.  And lastly, Varun Aaron has returned to Australia after a funeral back home and should play instead of Mohammad Shami.

The Key Players

Shane Watson – For all of his talent Watson should have more than four test hundreds.  From 103 test innings’ in a nine year career the return is underwhelming for such a genuine match winner.  As much it would be nice to feature a key player at the top of their game and delivering the hundreds the public deserve, unfortunately, we’re picking Watson as a key player to save his test career.  He’s been steady with the ball in the series, but if the 33-year-old wants to book an Ashes ticket next year, he needs runs.

Wriddhiman Saha – After waiting patiently in the wings of an alright shadow, perhaps the most influential shadow in Indian cricket, Saha gets the opportunity to let his keeping do the talking.  One stumping chance aside, Saha gloved the ball nicely in Adelaide in his only start of the test series thus far, but he’s also going to play an important role with the bat.  Coming in at 7 it is crucial the 30-year-old manages to bat some time and forge a partnership with whichever set batsman he joins.  Otherwise the tail will continue their house of cards impression.

The Odds*

Australia – $1.70

Draw – $3.50

India – $5

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.au.

The Prediction

Australia 3-0.  I cannot see any other result in this one.  Even Melbourne’s draw was tight.  India only have three players on form (Vijay, Rahane, Kohli, with maybe a case for Ashwin) and it’s too much to ask for them to get the better of a quality Australia attack time and time again.  Form also means they are due failures.

If you fancy it, consider Warner and Watson for top 3 runscorers.  They were both playing in the SCG game where Phillip Hughes was fatally injured.  They’ll be looking to pay a special tribute in this match.

Cricket: Australia look to overpower troubled India

Bay 13 at the MCG on Boxing Day is an institution.  Hot, rowdy, and full of Australia hundreds.  In the past Australian centuries on the 26th of December had been on the Christmas wish-lists of many Bay 13 cricket fans, and Santa almost always delivered.  This year, Warner and Smith will be leading the charge, and Bay 13 will be expecting big runs from their boys against an Indian bowling attack that last match struggled to dislodge any of Australia’s final four batsman.

A series that started with so much promise appears to be heading in the same direction as most other Indian tours of Australia – a whitewash.  It shouldn’t be though – the Indians have been competitive (rarely with the ball, but definitely with the bat) throughout and could have taken something from either of the first two games by winning the key sessions.

The viewing therefore, from Bay 13, will be of that of a dominant team against an underdog.  Powerful and confident Australia against an India side desperate to plug a leaky ship.  Either way and whoever you support, it should make for intriguing viewing.

The Last Time These Two Met

Brisbane served up an anti-climax after such a fascinating beginning to the series in Adelaide.  Although the Indians had two moments of opportunity on day one and day three the match finished abruptly and in a state of unrest.  Mitchell Johnson was the chief destroyer in the four wicket win, but it has also emerged that a dressing room spat between Virat Kohli and Shikhar Dhawan played a part too.

The Teams

Australia (likely): 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Joe Burns, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Ryan Harris, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

India (likely): 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Rohit Sharma, 7 MS Dhoni (capt,wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar/Varun Aaron, 10 Umesh Yadav, 11 Ishant Sharma.

The Key Players

Brad Haddin – Michael Clarke came out during the week in full support of his struggling wicket-keeper demanding he is a part of the Ashes squad next year.  However, Haddin’s form with the bat will need to drastically improve over the coming game to guarantee a plane seat.  Often the saviour for the home side, Haddin has been so short of runs in the series that Murphy (Law) is telling me he’s a good tip for top scorer in this one.

Ishant Sharma – The giant fast bowler has been in the spotlight this tour but not always for the right reasons.  There were rumours he was late to day four of the Brisbane test then had to buy food outside of the ground and wasn’t allowed back in, and he was also fined some of his match fee for offensive language.  Bowling wise he has mixed the good with the bad, and has struggled to find the consistency needed for the most experience bowler in the side.  Perhaps his three wickets in Australia’s second innings in Brisbane could turn around his fortunes.

The Odds*

Australia – $1.56

Draw – $4.00

India – $6.00

*International Cricket odds courtesy of BetEasy.

The Prediction

The media focus this week has been on India’s shambolic Brisbane defeat and the rumoured disharmony in the camp.  Therefore it’s difficult to predict anything other than an Australian victory.  There are some injury concerns for the hosts including Shaun March and Shane Watson but any replacements should be able to build on the Brisbane momentum and send Australia three clear.

Also have a look at these BetEasy options:

Highest Opening Partnership – India $2.15

Man of the Match – Brad Haddin $34.00

Cricket: Smith leads Australian team full of changes

The Gabba is the new WACA as far as Australian cricket pitches go.  It’s full of pace, bounce, and for the Indian batsmen, fear.  Fresh from a modest paced and decidedly easy batting surface in Adelaide the Indians now face a much sterner test on the more bowler friendly Brisbane strip.  The surface is expected to be much more like the surfaces the Indian batsmen have historically struggled on; the recipe is the WACA from 2012 where India were bundled out for 161 and 171.

That puts India on the back foot immediately, but there could be silver linings in the return of their inspiration leader and the vast number of changes to the opposing side.  Both sides have new captains at the helm for game two; one with all the experience under the sun, and the other with zero – thrust into the spotlight as the third youngest captain in Australia’s test history.  If Steven Smith’s batting is any indication as to captaincy ability, he’ll be fine, but the World will be watching in earnest as to whether he can command the respect of senior players like Shane Watson, Brad Haddin and Warner who all would have had their own captaincy ambitions.

MS Dhoni certainly commands respect and he’ll also bring a more conservative game plan to his teams approach; he’ll likely be a little more defensive / pragmatic than Virat Kohli.  The Gabba surface won’t only favour the home side; Ishant Sharma, Varun Aaron and Mohammed Shami could find assistance in the bouncy deck if they pitch the ball up and don’t get carried away bowling short stuff.  They will, however, need to bowl a much tighter line to David Warner if they don’t want the game to get away from them in the first session again.

The Last Time These Two Met

Game one will go down in history as an absolute classic, not only for the emotional ties to Phillip Hughes’ but also for the scintillating individual performances.  Two players scored hundreds in both innings (David Warner and Virat Kohli) and Steven Smith scored an unbeaten hundred followed by an uneaten fifty.  Then there was Nathan Lyon.  In fairness Australia were the better side through most of the game and will take more momentum and confidence into this one.

The Teams

Australia: 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

Injuries to Michael Clarke and Ryan Harris sees Shaun Marsh and Josh Hazlewood given a chance to prove their wares.  Marsh is well tested at this level and should suit the lower order more than his previous struggles at 3.  Exciting quickie Josh Hazlewood earns his baggy green on the back of some impressive one day form.  Mitchell Starc replaces the ineffective Peter Siddle in the other change.

India: 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Rohit Sharma, 7 MS Dhoni (capt,wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Varun Aaron, 10 Ishant Sharma, 11 Umesh Yadav.

MS Dhoni is expected to return to captain the side.  He’ll add some middle order stability that was lacking with Wriddhiman Saha in the side.  Ravichandran Ashwin is also added at the expense of Karn Sharma.

The Key Players

Steven Smith – Everything Smith does in this test will be questioned.  The toss, the bowling rotations, the field placements and his batting.  He can probably withstand the heightened attention on his batting and the quality of the Australian team should paper over any cracks in his captaincy.  Much like the coaching of John Buchanan when he inherited such a strong side nothing could go wrong.

Rohit Sharma – For someone that has two ODI double hundreds (including a top score of 264) Sharma hasn’t exactly excelled in the test environment.  Admittedly he has been in and out of the squad and also frustratingly waiting patiently for a chance while Dravid, Laxman, and Tendulkar finished their careers.  However, his record needs to improve.  He needs to kick on from the starts.  He needs a big score.

The Odds*

Australia – $1.55

Draw – $4.25

India – $5.00

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Luxbet.

The Prediction

Australia will be far to strong on the bouncy surface.  The bounce tests the Indian batsmen techniques too much and all of them are susceptible to defending with their hands and half a bat outside off stump.  Expect the Australia seamers to have a field day and win this one by an innings.