Tag: Mubtaahij

Kentucky Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Prince Bishop stars on Dubai World Cup night

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A top quality card on Dubai World Cup night featuring five Group 1 races ended with success for the Maktoum family when Prince Bishop stormed to victory in the main event.

For much of the race it had looked as though California Chrome would add his name to the roll of honour but he had no answer when William Buick produced Prince Bishop on his outside. The winner has been a grand servant to Saeed bin Suroor with eleven victories in a 28-race career but this is by far his biggest success.

It was quite a night for the veterans with Brown Panther winning the Dubai Gold Cup for Tom Dascombe and Sole Power returning to his best in the Al Quoz Sprint. Perhaps the most significant performance of the night came from the French-trained Solow in the Dubai Turf.

The grey stormed clear of last year’s French Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner The Grey Gatsby to win by four lengths. He looks set to be one of the stars of the season on turf. The French were also celebrating after Dolniya won the Dubai Sheema Classic under Christophe Soumillon. She confirmed her superiority over Flintshire from their recent meeting at Chantilly.

The Americans did not return empty-handed with Secret Circle gaining a well-deserved Group 1 success in the Dubai Golden Shaheen under a confident ride from Victor Espinoza. Although the winning margin was only a head, he never really looked like being caught by Super Jockey.

The UAE Derby was won in spectacular style by Mubtaahij for Mike de Kock and the colt will now head for the Kentucky Derby. He travelled easily throughout and gained revenge on his narrow 2000 Guineas conqueror Maftool who was beaten half a mile from home. The winning margin was eight lengths but it could have been doubled had Soumillon wished.

The form may be questionable but Mubtaahij goes to Kentucky with a major chance and is available at 12-1 with UK bookmakers. He will of course come up against the Baffert duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund who currently dominate the market.

Tamarkuz won the opening Godolphin Mile, giving us a tidy 30-1 treble on our Ante-Post update; Tamarkuz (6-4), Mubtaahij (11-4) and Solow (9-4).

Ante-post

Mubtaahij @12-1 Coral (Kentucky Derby)

Dubai World Cup – Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Last week we recommended Epiphaneia as the each-way bet at 8-1 for the Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday. That is still the best price available with California Chrome holding steady at around 6-4 despite being drawn out wide.

Unless California Chrome puts on a show, there is a danger that the big race will not live up to its billing. It certainly does not look the strongest renewal but the same cannot be said for the rest of the card.

There are five Group 1 races and three Group 2 races but only the Sheema Classic and the World Cup are televised by Channel 4. SKY viewers can watch all eight races live and it promises to be an entertaining card.

Tamarkuz is confidently expected to win the Godolphin Mile under Paul Hanagan after being drawn on the inside of the 16 runners. His main danger may come from Surfer but he is drawn widest of all and will do well to reach the frame from there.

The Dubai Gold Cup features the popular Brown Panther for the Michael Owen/Tom Dascombe partnership. He blotted his copybook by running away with his rider before the start at Woodbine but will be ponied to the start on Saturday. Ahzeemah was runner-up to the ill-fated Cavalryman here a year ago but ran inexplicably badly last time.

The UAE Derby should go the way of Mike de Kock’s Mubtaahij who looked as if he would have won the 2000 Guineas with another few strides. He is taken to gain revenge on Maftool over this slightly longer trip.

There are two big sprints and both will take a lot of sorting out. Sole Power needs everything to go right in the Al Quoz while Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry give the Americans a very strong hand in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. Solow is expected to win the Dubai Turf for France at the expense of The Grey Gatsby who surely won’t be 100% for his first race of the season.

The Dubai Sheema Classic is arguably the best race of the night. Main Sequence has been a revelation since joining Graham Motion in America. He renews rivalry with Breeders’ Cup victim Flintshire who had a recent pipe-opener in France. Harp Star, given too much to do in the Arc, and Dolniya add depth to the field along with the progressive Designs In Rome.

Tamarkuz @6-4 Godolphin Mile Bet365

Mubtaahij @11-4 UAE Derby Bet365

Solow @9-4 Dubai Turf Betfair

UAE 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Most of us are pre-occupied with the run up to the Cheltenham festival at the moment but Sheikh Mohammed is already assessing his classic hopes for the new flat season. The brilliant success of Local Time in the UAE 1000 Guineas is going to be hard to top in the colt’s equivalent on Thursday but a decent field has been assembled.

South African trainer Mike de Kock has dominated this race in previous seasons and is double-handed as he goes for a sixth victory. His colts finished first and second in the trial race last month with Mubtaahij storming five lengths clear of Ajwad.

De Kock has revealed that jockey Christophe Soumillon has chosen to ride Ajwad in preference here with Pat Dobbs aboard Mubtaahij. I have watched the race closely and, try as I might, cannot find any reason why Mubtaahij won’t beat Ajwad again on Thursday. Both colts broke well and travelled nicely at the head of the field before Mubtaahij stretched clear in the straight.

If there was an unlucky horse it was Godolphin’s Maftool who was slowly away and ran on steadily to finish third. The betting suggests that he will make a race of it this time but he still needs to improve. He did win a Group 3 at Newmarket in September but it wasn’t a particularly strong race and he appeared to have his limitations exposed in the Dewhurst. He was no match for Belardo that day, finishing fifth of the six runner field. I also felt that Maftool tended to hang fire a little in the closing stages, although that may have been due to his exertions in trying to make up the lost ground.

The Godolphin colt finished second to Richard Hannon’s Burnt Sugar over six furlongs at Kempton prior to his Newmarket win. The winner is yet to win beyond that distance and Maftool should have his measure. Godolphin are also represented by Zephuros who finished fourth in the trial without ever really threatening. He ran well enough when fifth to Mastermind at the last meeting here but it would be a surprise if he were to prove good enough.

Padlock was even further back in sixth place in the trial with Unorthodox finishing eighth. Mubtaahij can show himself to be a smart colt and land a sixth UAE 2000 Guineas for his trainer.

Tip

Mubtaahij 3.55 Meydan @7-4 Betfair