Tag: Mutual Regard

Melbourne Cup Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The field for the Melbourne Cup could be reduced to 22 following a late injury-scare for Cavalryman. The expert veterinary team at Godolphin are assessing scans of the injury before making a decision on his participation. Sea Moon was withdrawn yesterday with a temperature and there are no reserves allocated for the Cup.

During the build-up to the race we have suggested Mutual Regard was a good each-way bet at 20-1 and the Irish raider is now priced at around 11-1. Johnny Murtagh’s runner has not raced since winning the Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but connections are confident that he races best when fresh.

The booking of three-time race winning rider Damien Oliver can only help his cause. Oliver will equal the record of most wins in the race if he can add Mutual Regard’s name to that of Doriemus (1995), Media Puzzle (2002) and Fiorente (2013). He has also finished runner-up on three occasions and is well drawn in barrier 12.

We also find it hard to get away from the claims of Fawkner who ran a tremendous race when narrowly beaten in the Cox Plate by Adelaide. His build-up has mirrored that of last year’s winner Fiorente and he also looks perfectly placed in barrier nine. With Sportsbet offering refunds if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, he looks a good bet to finish in the frame.

There has been a flood of money for bottom weight Signoff since his Lexus Stakes victory at the weekend. His form is closely tied in with Protectionist who flies the flag for Germany and finished just behind Signoff in the Herbert Power Stakes. Admire Rakti shot to the head of the market with his great weight carrying performance in the Caulfield Cup but his penalty will give hope to those that finished in behind.

Eight of the horses that finished behind the Japanese horse at Caulfield re-oppose here. Many believe that Lucia Valentina could reverse the form here but I still have reservations about her stamina and Araldo caught my eye.

He was never placed to challenge but ran on strongly in the closing stages. Unfortunately he has drawn widest of all so will again be faced with picking his way through the field. Trainer Mike Moroney won the race with Brew in 2000 and Araldo could sneak into the frame at a decent price.

Finally, if you are looking for a massive long-shot, the odds currently showing on Seismos are an insult. It is true that he was always struggling at Caulfield and will have to be on his game to hold a position from barrier one. Trainer Marco Botti has been down this road before with Jakkalberry who ran an equally poor trial before finishing third in the Cup at 80-1. It is not impossible that history could repeat itself.

Fawkner @8.0 Sportsbet

Mutual Regard @11.0 Sportsbet

Araldo @26.0 Sportsbet

Seismos @126.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

*Sportsbet will refund your stake if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to a maximum of $100 (First bet only)

Melbourne Cup 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Our ante-post selection for the Melbourne Cup was Ireland’s Mutual Regard at 20-1 and his price has almost halved. With Damien Oliver booked and a perfect draw in barrier 12, we are hoping for a good run from the Ebor winner on Tuesday.

My one concern is his lack of a previous race in Australia which means that he will be having his first race for 73 days on Tuesday. Vintage Crop managed to win the race without any previous outings down under but he was an exceptional stayer.

The favourite Admire Rakti should make a bold bid to defy top weight and has also drawn nicely in barrier 8. Zac Purton will be content to bide his time on the six-year-old who surprised connections by having the speed to win the Caulfield Cup. You would have to fancy him to come out on top of those that contested that race and no fewer than nine take him on again here.

Lucia Valentina was ridden to get the trip that day and rattled home late in third under Kerrin McEvoy. That does not convince me that she will see out the trip here and mares have a poor record in the race, with the obvious exception of Makybe Diva. Brambles, Araldo, Lidari and Junoob all finished in a heap but the draw has dealt a blow to three of those. I thought Araldo ran particularly well and might make the frame here but he has drawn barrier 24.

Protectionist has been prepared specifically for this race by Andreas Wohler and he secured the services of Ryan Moore some time ago. He meets Signoff on identical terms to when finishing fourth and second respectively in the Herbert Power Stakes. Anyone who gambled on Signoff at long odds before the Lexus will be feeling very pleased with themselves but any value has now gone.

Sportsbet are refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Melbourne Cup and I’m going to recommend Fawkner to back up our earlier investment on Mutual Regard. I was impressed with his win in the Caulfield Stakes and he produced a run not unlike that of Fiorente a year ago when second in the Cox Plate. I think it will be very difficult to keep him out of the first four and he is perfectly drawn in barrier 9.

Ante-post Mutual Regard @20-1

Fawkner @9-1 Sportsbet*

*Special offer – stakes refunded if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th (max. $100)

Melbourne Cup 2014 – Runner by Runner Guide

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Flemington Race 7 (3:00pm) Tuesday 4th November

Admire Rakti – 9

Clear favourite since winning the Caulfield Cup and carries only a 0.5kg penalty here. Classy Japanese raider who was fourth in the Japan Cup last year and has drawn perfectly in barrier 8.

Cavalryman – NON-RUNNER

Godolphin are still chasing that elusive first Cup victory and Cavalryman is not out of it despite being eight years of age. Won the Goodwood Cup in July and was fast enough to beat Hillstar at Newmarket over a mile and half previously.

Fawkner – 9

Consistent grey who won the Caulfield Stakes before finishing a short-neck second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Sixth last year and has a major chance of doing better here.

Red Cadeaux – 6

Veteran of three Melbourne Cups, finishing runner-up behind Dunaden in 2011 and Fiorente last year. His prep races have been poor this year and it will be a major shock if he can improve his record.

Protectionist – 8

Trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and a big market mover following his fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Has not always been the easiest horse to train but has never been out of the first four and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Sea Moon – NON-RUNNER

A classy middle-distance performer in Europe and won the Herbert Power Stakes last year. Has been out of sorts in the build-up to the race will wear blinkers on Tuesday.

Seismos – 6

Regarded as the second string to the absent Dandino for Marco Botti and always struggling at Caulfield. Will need to hold his position early from barrier 1 if he is to have any chance.

Junoob – 7

Won the Group 1 Metropolitan for Chris Waller but did not enjoy a good run in the Caulfield Cup. Another with stamina concerns but perfectly drawn in barrier seven.

Royal Diamond – 7

Almost forgotten stable companion of Mutual Regard but the winner of the Irish St Leger in 2012 and a good performer in his own right. Has won on all types of ground but is unlikely to be improving at the age of eight.

Gatewood – 7

Was aimed at this race in 2012 but did not qualify and failed to settle in Australia subsequently. Has been revitalised by a return to John Gosden’s stable but drawn wide in barrier 22.

Mutual Regard – 9

Winner of the valuable Ebor handicap at York and a proven stayer with a touch of class. Has enjoyed a smooth preparation and is expected to go well for second season trainer Johnny Murtagh.

Who shot Thebarman – 6

One of three runners for Chris Waller and finished behind stable companion Junoob at Caulfield. Had previously won a Group 3 race here.

Willing Foe – 7

Beat Royal Diamond in the 2012 Ebor but has been lightly-raced since. Should get the trip but is regarded as Godolphin’s number two behind Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent – 6

A very ambitious raider from Roger Varian’s stable with no form beyond a mile and a half. Won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland last year but big stamina doubts.

Precedence – 5

Bart Cummings-trained nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the race. Started at 100-1 when ninth last year and will be a similar price this time.

Brambles – 7

One of two Peter Moody runners and has run some decent trials here and at Caulfield. May lack a turn of foot and a wide draw will not help his cause.

Mr O’Ceirin – 5

Not much to recommend this one, a doubtful stayer without a victory this season. Best effort when second to Moriarty at Eagle Farm in May.

Au Revoir – 6

Trained in France by Andre Fabre and ran a fair trial when third in the recent Moonee Valley Cup. Not the highest class raider from France in recent seasons and poorly drawn in barrier 23.

Lidari – 7

Stable companion of Brambles and a very similar profile. Tightly matched with that horse on form behind Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti but has fared better in the draw in barrier 10.

Opinion – 6

Another entry for Chris Waller and struggling for form recently. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute in England and ran well behind Junoob in the Metropolitan.

Araldo – 6

Only a length and a half behind Admire Rakti at Caulfield. Previously third to Junoob but connections will have been devastated to see him drawn widest of all in barrier 24.

Lucia Valentina – 8

Winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Was ridden from off the pace that day and unproven over the distance but should get a good position from barrier 2.

Unchain My Heart – 4

Comfortably held by several of these on form and a serious contender for last place.

Signoff – 6

Emphatically beat Big Memory to win the Lexus Stakes on Saturday and earn his place in the field. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009.

Forecast

  1. Fawkner 10-1 Sportsbet
  2. Mutual Regard 10-1 Luxbet
  3. Admire Rakti 4-1 Tom Waterhouse
  4. Lucia Valentina 7-1 Sportingbet

Admire Rakti tops final 24 for Melbourne Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Saturday’s Lexus Stakes saw the final pieces of the jigsaw fall into place for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

All but one of the runners involved still held an outside chance of making the final Cup field and it went to Signoff. Shocking proved that it is possible to win both races in 2009 and Maluckyday almost pulled it off when second to Americain the following year.

There were 38 stayers still in contention for a place for the $6.2 million Group 1 race on Saturday morning but the final 24 are now officially known and the draw was made on Saturday.

As expected, Japan’s Admire Rakti (barrier 8) will carry top weight of 58.5kg after his brilliant win in the Caulfield Cup. Connections had briefly considered bypassing the race in favour of the Japan Cup but a 0.5kg seems entirely justified. The seven-year-old jumped to the head of the market after that win, deposing the German stayer Protectionist who went into many notebooks when finishing well in fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. The Group 2 Prix Kergorlay winner will start from barrier 11 and is the mount of Ryan Moore.

Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (barrier 9) is also popular with punters and he remains solid in the market following his brave second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting Red Cadeaux (barrier 15) is back for a fourth run in the race while Godolphin are quietly confident that Cavalryman (drawn 3) and Willing Foe (17) both have great chances of ending their long wait to win the big race.

There has been steady support for Ireland’s Mutual Regard (drawn 12) in recent weeks. The Ebor winner is trained by former top jockey Johnny Murtagh who only hung up his riding boots last season. Damien Oliver has the ride on this one.

Marco Botti is forced to rely on Seismos (1) following the enforced withdrawal of Dandino while Murtagh also runs 2012 Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond (6). The home team also have hopes with Chris Waller’s Metropolitan winner Junoob (7) and proven stayer Who Shot Thebarman (13). Confidence is also growing behind Lucia Valentina (barrier 2) who was third at Caulfield while Peter Moody saddles the consistent Lidari (10) and Brambles (21).

John Gosden’s Gatewood (22) gets into the field this year after returning to the UK following an unsuccessful spell in training in Australia. My Ambivalent (4) is unproven over the distance but is a classy middle-distance trained by Roger Varian while Andre Fabre’s Au Revoir (23) has sneaked in almost under the radar. The four-year-old son of Singspiel was third at Moonee Valley last week.

Ante-post tip: Mutual Regard at 20-1 (best price now 11.0 Sportsbet)

Melbourne Cup Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The final field is gradually taking shape for the Melbourne Cup and the favourite Admire Rakti has been given the go-ahead despite picking up a 0.5kg penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Owner Riichi Kondo had warned that he may divert the horse to the Japan Cup if he received a penalty but those fears were allayed on Tuesday.

The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg in the race was Think Big in 1975. Only Kingston Town in 1982 and Vintage Crop in 1995 have managed to carry such a large weight into a place since then. Connections cannot really complain as this is the lowest penalty given to the Caulfield Cup winner since Ming Dynasty in 1980.

Godolphin’s quest for a first Melbourne Cup success has been well documented and they have finished runner-up three times. This year’s hopes rest with the veteran Cavalryman and last year’s Ebor winner Willing Foe, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Cavalryman could do no better than twelfth in 2012 but he has seemed better than ever this season. Craig Williams will take the ride on him with James McDonald partnering Willing Foe. A notable European absentee is Marco Botti’s Dandino who finished fifth last year. He missed his intended run in the Caulfield Cup through lameness and has not recovered in time to take his place. The stable will now rely on Seismos who was well beaten at Caulfield.

In last week’s Caulfield Cup Review we picked out Mutual Regard as the best of the European challengers and Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride. The Irish-trained gelding has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but runs well fresh and could provide former top jockey Johnny Murtagh with the biggest win of his fledgling training career.

The Group 3 Geelong Cup proved a farcical affair with a stop-go gallop but it eventually went to Caravan Rolls On, formerly trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam in England. Now with Danny O’Brien, he is very unlikely to get into the race at Flemington. Connections are hoping that he receives a 2kg penalty to boost his chances of sneaking in.

Junoob will still take his chance in the Cup despite finishing only seventh at Caulfield. He was pushed up early on to try to overcome a wide draw but ending up racing wide and did well to plug on into seventh place. Trainer Chris Waller is still chasing a first win in the great race.

Andreas Wohler’s German stayer Protectionist is still all the rage after his eye-catching run into fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. Ryan Moore has the ride on the Group 2 winner and will be hoping for better luck than he has experienced on Mount Athos (2012) and Dandino last year. The market could get a further shake-up after Fawkner runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday.

*Ante-post Mutual Regard 20-1 Paddy Power

Caulfield Cup Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4