Tag: Nabucco

Haydock Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

At the time of writing, the rain is apparently “pelting down” at Haydock on Friday evening and the going is already good from good to firm. That probably means some testing conditions for Saturday’s card and that means some careful consideration is needed.

It looks a good quality card on Saturday but there are almost certain to be a load of non-runners if the going turns soft. The pick of the form has been achieved on fast ground so it may pay to delve a bit deeper and find horses that will go in softer ground.

The first horse that stands out is Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House. He obviously has his problems as he is now five years old and this will be only his ninth start. He impressed me when winning at York last season in soft ground but did not reappear for a year. He finished fifth behind the well-handicapped Clever Cookie but did not have his conditions next time at Newmarket. He could start at a lot shorter than 6-1 if the going continues to deteriorate.

Nabucco is a horse that I have followed since early in his three-year-old career. He is tough and consistent but does not like fast ground. All things considered, it was a decent run to finish third to Amralah at Newbury last month on good ground. He absolutely hacked up in heavy ground at Salisbury last season and he could get a Group 3 success in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes tomorrow.

Hillstar did not look entirely happy on this sort of ground at Chester in May and I’ve never really been entirely convinced by him. True Story looks overrated and Nabucco can gain revenge on Amralah.

There are some interesting races later in the day, notably the Listed Fillies’ Stakes at 3.25. I am tempted to support Psychometry here but there is no real evidence that she likes soft ground. She was third at Goodwood behind Marsh Daisy but was well beaten. It was her eye-catching run at Ascot that makes her worth keeping an eye on. She never had an inch of space and yet managed to finish full of running within four lengths of the winner. She has a decent race in her, I’m just not sure that it will be tomorrow. Each-way might be the way to go.

Rye House 2.20 Haydock at 6-1 Bet365

Nabucco 2.55 Haydock at 8-1 BetVictor

Psychometry 3.25 Haydock at 10-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Salisbury Wednesday Preview

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Vorda (2-1) made sure that we finished Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting on a winning note. She looked very impressive to me and it will be fascinating to see how she gets on at the Breeders’ Cup next month. It was certainly a great week of trials for the 1000 Guineas and I wouldn’t despair if you have backed Rizeena or Ihtimal ante-post. Neither got the run of the race and could still make live classic contenders next spring.

After a quiet start to the week, there is some decent racing at Salisbury on Wednesday. The Conditions race at 4.30 brings together Justice Day and Expert who were second and third at Doncaster recently. With Figure Of Speech also in the field and all three having had busy seasons, this looks like a race to watch rather than get involved in.

One horse that should offer some value is John Gosden’s Nabucco. The four-year-old landed some nice bets when winning a decent handicap at Newmarket in June and was last seen finishing second at Glorious Goodwood. That was a decent effort as he had to overcome a wide draw and race more prominently than would have been ideal. He fought off all challengers bar the confidently ridden Viewpoint who is again in opposition tomorrow.

Nabucco is only 2lbs better off with Viewpoint for a length so it could be close between the pair but I just feel that Gosden’s horse will come out on top. If Buick can settle him on or near the lead without having to chase after him, he will tough to pass in the closing stages. Most of the field are well exposed with the exception of Andrew Balding’s Open Water who was a beaten favourite at Windsor in May. Paddy Power and BetVictor have chalked up Nabucco at 5-2 and he looks the best bet on the card.

Red Galileo is a nice colt and has been unlucky to finish runner-up in all three starts to date. He looks set to get off the mark under Ryan Moore at Kempton tomorrow evening with only three opponents. Mark Johnston’s Zumurudah is the obvious threat having won comfortably at Carlisle last time out but Red Galileo should have his measure.

Nabucco (3.55 Salisbury) 5-2 Paddy Power, BetVictor

Red Galileo (7.40 Kempton) 5-11 Betfair

York Magnet Cup Preview

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York’s Magnet Cup is always a great betting race and Saturday’s race has attracted a massive 42 declarations at the confirmation stage. There are some rapidly improving types amongst them and the two that stand out for me are Niceofyoutotellme and Nabucco, first and second at Newmarket last month.

John Gosden’s Nabucco did this column a favour when landing a handicap at the same venue but has incurred a 5lb penalty. That theoretically gives him a lot to do with Niceofyoutotellme, being 3lbs worse off with the horse that beat him a length.

As far as I am aware, both horses have been given the green light for the race and there are no major concerns about the fast ground. Ralph Beckett’s horse first caught my eye when finishing like a train to win on the all-weather and he produced a fine turn of foot to cut down Nabucco last time. The runner-up won nicely under a canny ride from Ryan Moore subsequently and could still be improving.

The draw has come to the rescue of the bookies on several occasions recently and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that these two smart horses are not given an impossible task. Ladbrokes are best on both horses and I expect both to shorten up.

The early favourite is Stencive, trained by William Haggas and ridden by the in-form Graham Lee. He was heavily backed when second to Opinion at Royal Ascot last month. I expressed reservations about the quality of that particular Ascot race last week and it was no real surprise that Opinion could not lump 9st 10lb to victory in the Old Newton Cup. Having said that, he ran creditably in a muddling sort of race and Stencive did give him too much rope at Ascot.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House is a horse that I have been keen to follow since he bolted up at York earlier in the season but he has missed a number of engagements since. In fact, he was Moore’s intended mount at Ascot before switching to Opinion. I think his problem may be the ground as he does hit the ground quite hard. I’m guessing that Sir Michael is waiting for a bit of cut in the ground before risking him and I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Another progressive sort is Clon Brulee who absolutely hacked up at Ripon before following up in the Zetland Gold Cup. If he gets a favourable draw he could well prove a danger and he has the right profile for this race.

David Simcock’s Whispering Warrior keeps on winning and has gone up over two stone in the handicap this season. His only recent blemish came at Newmarket when he was baulked early on and could never get competitive. He looks like one of those horses who keeps a bit to himself in the closing stages and is another to consider in a fascinating contest.

For the moment, I shall pin my colours to the Newmarket form and hope that the declarations and draw are favourable.

Niceofyoutotellme 12-1 Ladbrokes
Nabucco 16-1 Ladbrokes

Newmarket Preview Saturday 29th June

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Having previewed the Irish Derby earlier in the week I am happy to stick with my opinion that Ruler Of The World should follow up his Epsom Derby victory. I would expect Libertarian and Galileo Rock to follow him home and we should at least have a clearer indication of the likely St Leger winner by tomorrow evening.

The Northumberland Plate has turned into the ante-post punters nightmare. Several key non-runners including Tiger Claw because of the likelihood of fast ground (now good to soft). I suppose there was an element of poetic justice in the fact that the connections “stand-in” Lieutenant Miller failed to make the cut by one. The leading fancies have been drawn in the car park so most punters have switched their allegiance to some well-drawn hurdling types instead.

Whatever the fate of my Pitmen’s Derby selections, there are plenty of other good races to look at on Saturday. My first selection is for Godolphin’s Lost In The Moment in the Fred Archer Stakes. I’ve followed this nag from his handicapping days and even put some hard earned cash on him at huge odds for the Melbourne Cup in 2011. Rather like Godolphin, I am yet to enjoy success in that particular race but he did his best in finishing sixth.

I could probably write a small book about the fun I’ve had following Lost In The Moment. I tipped him strongly for the Goodwood Cup when he flew home and just failed to catch Opinion Poll. I fancied him for the Ebor but he suffered a lousy draw and could only stay on through beaten horses. All water under the bridge! Tomorrow he’s back in a five-runner listed race over a mile and a half and if he’s fit enough he can gain his first victory since 2011.

Another old friend is my selection in the Criterion Stakes, Jim Goldie’s Hawkeyethenoo. He has done nothing wrong this season in top quality sprint races. Either Graham Lee has been giving him too much to do or (giving Lee the benefit of the doubt) he needs to step up to seven furlongs. I can’t remember the last time I backed a winner ridden by Jamie Spencer but he has a chance to make amends tomorrow.

My third tip for the meeting is Nabucco in the 4.05. I followed several of Gosden’s horses at Royal Ascot and they all ran well. This fellow came up against a good sort in Niceofyoutotellme last time and Ryan Moore has been booked tomorrow. He holds a Magnet Cup entry so JG clearly thinks he has a big handicap in him this season.

Lost In The Moment 11-2 Totesport
Hawkeyethenoo 4-1 Paddy Power
Nabucco 4-1 Paddy Power