Tag: NBA futures betting

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: Do the Houston Rockets have a chance to win the NBA Finals, or will a fading Dwight Howard be their undoing?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In this historically unpredictable NBA season, we’ve covered the championship cases for the Portland Trailblazers, OKC Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Today, we look at the Houston Rockets and Dwight Howard, their curiously flawed star center.

March 3, 2015

 

Playing elite NBA championship basketball requires many distinct qualities. First, you must have that extra gear for the playoffs (and yet another for the Finals) regardless of how well the regular season went.

You need all twelve players to be on the same page, regardless of whatever interpersonal issues the team carries (and they all carry a few). Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant disliked each other vehemently at times, but that didn’t stop them from winning three straight titles together.

You need a unified team that is committed and consistently on overdrive. You need a team that just wants it more than their opponents.

In short, these attributes contribute to two of the most important factors in an NBA Championship bid: true desire and mental toughness.

Professional basketball fans over the age of 30 have lived through a tougher, more physically and mentally demanding era of NBA basketball that younger fans simply haven’t experienced in the current family-friendly age of the NBA.

That’s one of the reasons star players like center Dwight Howard (Houston Rockets) and power forward Blake Griffin (LA Clippers) have as many detractors as they do fans. Talent means a great deal in the NBA, but that alone will never deliver a title. You need mental toughness and a relentless drive to be the best every single day. You need leaders with true presence who will lift the team above the sum of its individual parts. That’s how championship teams are born.

Dwight Howard has more natural talent than he knows what to do with. But he has never shown the required drive and mental toughness to truly excel. He is the second best player on his team, and his easygoing approach to basketball just isn’t enough, especially at a time when he’s passing his athletic prime.

However, this is a freak NBA season. Usually, teams like the Rockets don’t have a realistic chance to reach the Finals regardless of their regular season record. But this is a historically open NBA season with the deepest field of credible contenders ever, and there are no truly elite teams.

So, even a perennially flawed “contender” like Houston actually has a chance of winning this year. It’s a golden opportunity. But will they be able to take advantage?

In short, no. Let’s have a look at why your money is better spent elsewhere.

 

The Curious Case of Dwight Howard:

I’m no fan of Dwight Howard. I like my superstar players to actually give a damn every game. I like seeing them care enough to add a couple of iron-clad moves to their game every single summer. I like to see the drive to improve all aspects of their game all the time, because guess what? THAT’S WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN.

The margin of error in the NBA Playoffs is so thin that every single unit of preparation could be the factor that dictates your glory or your doom. Dwight Howard has never shown he wants it all that bad.

For the first five seasons of his NBA career, Howard was so freakishly athletic that he could breakdance his way to total domination in a league where dominant centers are now an endangered species. I do not wish to sell Howard too short, because he was often spectacular during his early years, easily amassing around 20+ points and 15 rebounds per game with 3-4 blocks while single-handedly defending the paint with venom.

His athleticism was overpowering, but unfortunately for the fun-loving Dwight, Father Time is undefeated. You cannot just rely on freakish athleticism, especially if you are, like Dwight Howard, seriously limited on the offensive end.

The truly great ones prepare years in advance for that time when their knees won’t give them the same explosiveness anymore. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, for example, began to perfect their post-up games well before their 30’s. LeBron James was a little late to do the same, but he still crafted a deadly low post game before he turned 30. All three players used foresight to perfect a part of their game that would serve them sustainably well into their late 30’s. That’s what I call drive.

Dwight Howard has exactly two post moves and can’t shoot outside of eight feet. That’s pretty much what he came into the NBA with. He never quite figured out how to score with efficiency and brains. This year, he will turn 30 and that is an evil harbinger for superstar centers, historically speaking.

Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal are the four greatest true centers in the past three decades. All of them began to fade at the age of 30, because the NBA is particularly taxing on superstar big men.

Dwight Howard has had back surgery in the last two years. His numbers across the board are slipping. Take a look at these averages per game from 2011 and now:

2011 Dwight Howard: 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 11.7 free throw attempts, 2.4 blocks

2015 Dwight Howard: 16.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 6.9 free throw attempts, 1.4 blocks

All four of the elite centers mentioned above were better players than Dwight Howard, and far more resourceful offensively. And yet when their numbers dipped after they turned 30, not a single one of them was able to regain an elite level of play ever again. When the statistical slide starts for a center, the drop is far, far steeper than for other positions.

If these four all-time greats couldn’t halt the ravages of time, there is no way that Dwight Howard can.

As such, this current version of Dwight Howard is the only one Houston can count on, for better or worse. 2011 Dwight ain’t never coming back. He might make a small cameo (like in last year’s series against Portland), but you simply can’t count on him to be there.

Which leaves Houston’s championship hopes squarely on the shoulders of superstar guard James Harden, a credible MVP contender this season.

James Harden is a great player, no question about it. But James Harden is also one of the laziest defenders in the entire NBA. This year, he’s actually trying to play defense consistently for once, in part because his laziness was so atrocious that a video documenting them became viral on YouTube.

However, is that supposed to be reassuring? A superstar player who only started playing real defense after he was shamed into it over the course of five seasons?

That tells us one thing about James Harden: he is immensely talented and very, very good. But no player who defends as poorly as that as a habit can ever be a truly elite player, namely that rare type that can conceivably carry a team to a title by himself.

They make all the right noises about desire and wanting to win, but the facts are the facts:

Dwight Howard never made enough of an effort to improve his game for a time when his athleticism declines.

And James Harden is bloody good, but is also the type of player who seems to arrogantly play defense only when he “needs to”.

Not exactly a pair of mentally tough customers.

You know what’s also funny? Houston head coach Kevin McHale was also known for being a fun-loving guy during his storied Hall of Fame career. He may have won three championships as Larry Bird’s sidekick on that 1980’s Boston Celtics dynasty, but he drove the psychotically competitive Bird absolutely nuts with his oft-relaxed approach to the game.

Bird often moaned about how McHale could be the league’s best player if only he applied himself fully. Celtics coach Bill Fitch once asked McHale in exasperation: “Why can’t you be more like Larry?”

McHale’s response? “Because I have a life.”

That attitude, unfortunately, reminds us of his star center in Houston now, and that’s not good news for the Rockets faithful.

And let’s not forget this: McHale may not have been the most driven of superstars, but even with this in mind, he ended up being the finest low-post player in NBA history (nobody, and I mean NOBODY, had more unguardable post moves). He became the best power forward to ever play the game not named Tim Duncan. That’s how good Kevin McHale was.

Dwight Howard is no Kevin McHale.

And crucially: McHale played with Larry Bird, one of the five greatest players and competitors of all-time.

James Harden is no Larry Bird, not even a little bit close.

As such, the three main figures in Houston all have mental flaws or wavering levels of effort. The will to win cannot be taught. And the lack of it doesn’t translate to NBA titles.

 

Does the odds picture make things more enticing?

Actually, a little. They’re sitting on 22-1 odds right now, which is the 10th ranked odds contender. That’s a decent return for the Rockets, if only because of the unpredictability of the league this year.

Still, I can’t see Houston winning in any circumstance. My natural anti-Dwight bias plays a part, but I’d still save my bet for a better team or at least, for a team that is truly underrated.

Such as the Portland Trailblazers, who are sitting on a ludicrously generous 30-1 odds (you can even find a 40-1 offer at Ladbrokes!). I’m not saying the Blazers will win, but they are just as good, if not better, than the Rockets.

The Rockets aren’t worth a punt. They just don’t have enough mental steel. Out of the West, I’d pick the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Dallas Mavericks (18-1) or even Portland (30-1) before I’d pick the Rockets.

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Which of the Two Consensus Favourites Will Win the NBA Title?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

NBA futures betting for the Championship has never been more open. Today, we break down the chances of the consensus favourites from each conference: the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

 

February 27, 2015

 

Both the pundits and the media at large have settled on the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers as consensus favourites to meet in the Finals. It’s the type of matchup that makes people forget their families for a week.

In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors started the season as a dangerous young team with a bright rookie head coach in Steve Kerr. We expected them to build on their 51 wins last season, and perhaps advance another round in the playoffs.

Nobody expected them to erupt with a 23-3 record, matching an all-time mark set by the 1996 Chicago Bulls (in fairness, those Bulls extended that streak to a ludicrous 41-3). The Warriors have also been a top 5 defensive team consistently. In a Conference with an unprecedented eight contenders, Golden State has played most like the top dog. Their consistency, incredible outside shooting and their balanced, unselfish play means no team has yet to challenge that status.

In the Eastern Conference, the star studded Cleveland Cavaliers are Jekyll and Hyde. The consensus preseason favourites, the Cavaliers were disappointing at first with a terrible 5-7 record. Then, they won eight in a row and all was well. Next, they lost nine of ten games and the world was ending.

Now, they’ve won 18 of their past 20 games including a massive win in Golden State last night. LeBron James remains the league’s undisputed best player. He’s in his prime and flanked by two bona fide All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who are finally figuring out how to play with James. They’ve made trades that addressed their primary weaknesses (lack of post defense and rim protection) and are now primed for a championship run.

Without question, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the most dangerous team in the NBA.

However, while both Cleveland and Golden State have been the best of their respective conferences, they are not a lock to meet in the Finals. The field of contenders is so abnormally deep this year that one could see either the Cavs or Warriors losing in a seven game series.

Welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season, where everything is up in the air. Let’s break down the case for Golden State’s and Cleveland’s championship hopes.

 

Golden State’s Case:

Stephen Curry is like a walking, talking video game. His game is completely unique in NBA history. A guy who takes shots with such a high degree of difficulty simply should not be this efficient at making them. He makes over 40% of his three point attempts, shoots 49% from the field and is the deadliest shooter at the point guard position in a league that’s overflowing with them.

Next to him, we find young shooting guard Klay Thompson who has just exploded in a rainbow of ridiculous outside shooting. Remember Curry’s shooting stats? Here’s Thompson’s: 44% from three point range, 47% from the field overall, and almost every shot is outside of 18 feet.

He broke Twitter and the basketball media last month with 37 points in a single quarter against Sacramento. In a QUARTER! Twelve minutes of an NBA game and he hit 13 straight shots and NINE of them were threes! Needless to say, it’s an NBA record.

A year ago, the Warriors head coach at the time claimed “The Splash Brothers” were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history. We scoffed at him then. After all, don’t these two have a lot more to prove first?

Now, it doesn’t look like misguided hyperbole from a protective coach. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are absolutely on their way to becoming the finest pure shooting backcourt in NBA history. They’re not there yet, but their list of competitors grows thin.

Combined with a truly team-first dynamic, an excellent cast of versatile role players, a highly promising young coach with five Championship rings as a player, and the best home crowd in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are the real deal.

However: they live and die with Andrew Bogut’s injuries. Their only real rim protector, the Aussie center is disproportionally important to Golden State’s title hopes. But the problem is Bogut is highly injury-prone. If he’s out come playoff time, it represents a significant problem for the Warriors. Power forward David Lee is a gifted low post scorer and rebounder, but he is one of the most atrocious defenders in the entire NBA.

There is no depth in the Warriors frontcourt if Bogut is unavailable. Let’s not forget: the Western Conference path to the Finals is like a gauntlet of pain. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge and some guy named Tim Duncan are just a few centers that Golden State can count on meeting come playoff time.

If Bogut isn’t 100%, that’s big trouble in a Conference that is overflowing with the NBA’s finest big men.

 

Cleveland’s Case:

LeBron James. Isn’t that enough? In a league dominated by superstars, LeBron is the undisputed best player. Let’s put it this way: last year’s Miami Heat team, with LeBron James, finished with a 54-28 regular season record.

LeBron jumped ship over the summer and returned to Cleveland. This season, Miami are sitting on a terrible 25-31 record with basically the exact same team minus LeBron. They’re barely in the playoffs in a historically bad Conference. With James, the Miami Heat played in four straight NBA Finals.

The best players matter more in the NBA than any other sport. It’s just that simple, and in LeBron James Cleveland has the unanimous best player.

They have depth and scoring chops in spades with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. They addressed their big man void with shrewd signings in Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins. They have perimeter defending and shooting sorted. And their early season growing pains with an unhappy Kevin Love seem to be in the past.

However, let’s address the 800-pound elephant in the room: inexperience.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are incredibly talented All-Stars. But together, they have played in exactly ZERO NBA playoff games in a combined ten NBA seasons. For a pair of stars as celebrated as these two, that is utterly unacceptable.

They may have the game, but do they have the brains? Are they mentally ready for a level of basketball that they have never experienced before?

But at least they’ve got NBA experience. The same cannot be said for their head coach. A daisy fresh rookie, David Blatt has never coached or even played in a single NBA game.

There have been numerous reports this season of LeBron defying his play calls and basically coaching the team himself out on the floor. James says he respects Blatt, but it is hard to believe that one of the NBA’s ten greatest ever players, a two-time champion and four-time MVP, would take an NBA rookie head coach seriously all the time.

Players look to LeBron for guidance. If he doesn’t buy in to coach’s game plan then they won’t either. The truth is that in one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory, Cleveland are still only third in the standings and a full ten games behind the Atlanta Hawks.

Much of that is down to the fact that Cleveland has been a work in progress throughout the season. A lot of their bickering comes from egos and not being on the same page while negotiating the growing pains suffered by any newly formed team.

Which brings us to this point: teams simply do not form and win a championship in their first year playing together. The 2008 Boston Celtics are an exception that proves the rule, but they never had to deal with coaching inexperience or team identity. They knew who they were on day one and were utterly unified. Cleveland took nearly 60 games to figure it out.

That being said, nobody in the East can stop Cleveland. It’s not even going to be close. Even Atlanta is going to struggle mightily against such a scoring juggernaut in Cleveland. The Cavs are a lock to make the Finals.

That’s where their championship hopes will be severely tested, because all eight playoff teams from the West have a better chance to beat Cleveland than the entire East combined.

Will raw talent, fiery scoring and the game’s best player be enough for the Cavaliers to win their first ever NBA Championship?

My brain says no. The West is too deep, and Cleveland just isn’t as unified as I would like to see in a truly elite contender.

But this is the NBA, where the game’s best player commands an abnormal amount of influence.

My heart says Cleveland absolutely can win the NBA title this season.

Both Golden State and Cleveland’s odds for winning the title is around 4-1, representing the joint-favourites. Should they meet in the Finals, that matchup would be incredibly difficult to call. But when push comes to shove, only one player from either team has won NBA titles: LeBron James.

I don’t feel good about it, but I might have to pick Cleveland to win this season’s NBA Championship.

 

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Are the Atlanta Hawks For Real? A Look at their Odds and their Case for the Unlikeliest of NBA Titles

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

February 24, 2015

 

At the time of this writing, the Atlanta Hawks lead the NBA Eastern Conference standings with a 44-12 record. To put these Hawks into context: they are sitting on a .786 winning percentage with two-thirds of the season gone. That’s on pace for the 20th most winningest season in NBA history.

That’s a better record than Larry Bird’s first Boston Celtics championship season in ’81. Or the dominant ’89 champion Detroit Pistons. Or the ’98 championship Chicago Bulls, led by some guy named Michael Jordan. Or dozens of other championship teams in NBA history.

The Atlanta Hawks are baffling because a team of overlooked consolation prizes almost never come together to challenge for NBA titles. They have zero elite players and have remained largely unchanged for two seasons. Suddenly, they’re winning more games than Larry Bird.

You’d have to go back to the 2004 Detroit Pistons to find a comparable team of overachievers that came out of nowhere to dominate. That Pistons team further shocked the world by winning the NBA Championship, but that is a historical anomaly.

In the past 30 years, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons can be described as a complete underdog champion. Sure, a few other teams in that period have punched above their weight to claim a title. But these teams had at least a shot at winning. Nobody gave the ’04 Pistons the slightest chance in hell to win it all.

Teams without an elite great player do not win NBA titles. But the 2004 Detroit Pistons somehow managed to win despite not having one. The previous championship squad without an elite superstar was the 1979 Seattle Supersonics.

Whoever bet on that Pistons team to win must have made an obscene amount of money and commanded twice as much in bragging rights. This year’s Atlanta Hawks is the first team to come along since then that reminds us of those Pistons, in terms of how unlikely their championship bid seems regardless of what the standings say.

Can the Atlanta Hawks do the same and shock the world? Let’s have a look at the case for and against Atlanta as we compare them to the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

 

The Case for Atlanta:

 

The very nature of this NBA season itself is Atlanta’s best case. We are enjoying a historically open season where a normally predictable landscape has been made highly unpredictable. Usually, an NBA season features two or maybe three elite contenders and one of them invariably wins. Teams ranked 4-10 almost never win.

This year, we have no truly elite teams. Instead, we have an incredibly deep field of 8-10 credible contenders. This almost never happens in the NBA and it is a partial explanation for Atlanta’s excellent season thus far. There are so many teams in turmoil or development (especially in the East) that teams like Atlanta can exploit them with its stability and unselfishness.

Those ’04 Pistons were relentlessly unselfish, and it allowed them to play a slow-down brand of suffocating basketball with players that knew exactly what their roles were. They were the epitome of “stronger than the sum of its parts.”

Atlanta has that same unselfishness and stability. Their head coach, Mike Budenholzer, spent 18 years as an assistant for legendary Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich, before landing in Atlanta last year. That’s a PHD in winning and unselfish basketball, taught by one of the five greatest coaches in NBA history. Budenholzer learned well from Popovich, and the Hawks (nicknamed “Spurs East” in some media circles) now exhibit the same unselfish team-first principles that helped to make the Spurs a dynasty.

In a Conference where powerhouses such as Cleveland and Chicago are still finalizing their team structure, Atlanta is already the finished product. Great, team basketball can hide many shortcomings, and this Atlanta team learned from the best.

 

The Case Against Atlanta:

 

This is going to be a far longer list than the case for the Hawks winning, but that’s the whole point! Nobody saw the ’04 Pistons coming, even though their “cons” list must have rivalled the one I’m about to write for the Hawks.

First of all, we have to identify a few simple facts: the 2004 Pistons were coached by the all-time great Larry Brown, while the promising Budenholzer is still finding his way.

Also, the 2004 Detroit Pistons were a historically dominant defensive team. They were an absolute monster to score against. Detroit basically sucked the life out of their opponents with a defense that was hard to watch even for purist basketball nerds.

But it worked! Larry Brown took his team’s one elite skill and turned it into an all-time defensive brick wall. They may have lacked the firepower, but they rode a legendary lockdown defense all the way to the top.

Atlanta has a very good defense, currently ranked third in the league in points-per-game allowed and opponent’s field goal percentage. However, they are not the ’04 Pistons defensively, mainly because, well, nobody is.

That Detroit front line was an all-time nightmare to play against. Rasheed Wallace was one of the finest post defenders around. Tayshaun Prince was long, fast and a relentless lockdown defender who could guard four positions at an elite level. And big Ben Wallace, a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, was a once-a-generation defensive force.

With all due respect to Al Horford, Paul Millsap and whoever is starting next to them, Atlanta is not in the same league as 2004 Detroit.

You can’t win a title without a good-to-great defense, which Atlanta has. But it’s not an all-time dominant defense, which means they won’t ride it all the way to a title like Detroit did. Even those Pistons would secretly admit they were lucky to win it all, because they, like the Hawks, were limited by their lack of an elite superstar.

You need one of those to win in the NBA, and the Hawks do not have anything resembling a star closer. In the tensest moments of playoff basketball, sometimes you just cannot score against iron-clad defenses regardless of how good your team is playing. That’s when you need a dominant player who can create opportunities from nothing.

Atlanta doesn’t have that closer. They will meet playoff defenses and will struggle to score against them in key possessions. The best player matters in a playoff series, and these Hawks might not have a single series in which they have the best player on their side.

Finally, let’s look at the odds picture to see if that makes a punt worthwhile.

Currently in late February, a futures bet for an Atlanta Hawks championship stands at a lukewarm 7-1, which means a $100 bet would get you $700. This makes them the fourth favourites to win it all, and only Golden State (4-1), Cleveland (4-1) and defending champion San Antonio (6-1) are ranked above them. For a team as unlikely to win as Atlanta, 7-1 odds are not exactly enticing.

In context, current Western powers such as the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Houston Rockets (17-1) and the insanely underrated Portland Trailblazers (30-1!!!) all have far more enticing payouts (and arguably, better teams).

Atlanta is rated this highly because they play in the terrible East where only two other teams are contenders (Cavs and Bulls). The Eastern path to the Finals is like a beach holiday compared to the bloodbath we can expect in the West, where all eight playoff teams have a shot at winning.

So, sure, Atlanta has a better chance at getting to the Finals than the Western teams mentioned above, but guess what? Even if they get there, they still have to actually play one of those teams. That’s when Hawks supporters become quiet again.

I’d have a punt on Atlanta at a minimum of 12-1 odds, but at 7-1 it doesn’t look good at all. Portland, at a ridiculously mouthwatering 30-1 odds, is arguably a better team than Atlanta. The Blazers are the team I’d bet on purely for the ludicrously generous payout.

But Atlanta at 7-1 odds just doesn’t do enough to make me forget how flawed they are as a contender. They are tearing up the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal. At 7-1 odds, it’s not worth betting on Atlanta and what may well be an unproven playoff team who overachieved at the wrong time in the NBA season.

 

NBA Futures Betting: Predicting the NBA Champion in a Historically Open Season and How the Odds are in Your Favour (for once)

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In the first part of an NBA Championship betting series, we examine the massive opportunities in this historically open NBA season. Today, we look at two Western Conference monsters with excellent odds: The Portland Trailblazers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

 

February 11, 2015

 

Of the three major American sports leagues, the NBA is easiest for predicting a champion. Both the NFL and Major League Baseball produce unheralded Cinderella champions at a far higher rate than the NBA ever has.

In part, this is because the NBA has featured an incredible number of repeat champions in the past 30 years. Going back to 1985, over a third of all NBA seasons have produced a repeat champion (1988, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010 and 2013). That is a whopping number of mini dynasties, resulting in very few seasons where it was truly a wide open contest.

However, the current NBA season is precisely that: WIDE OPEN. Nobody knows who is going to win. No teams stand clearly above the rest. There are 10-12 excellent teams, all contenders in their own ways, all with flaws and yet, all carrying a genuine shot at glory.

This has made NBA futures betting all the more exciting and crucially, potentially profitable.

In the past, teams ranked outside of the consensus top three or four had little real chance of winning. Regrettably, these were also the teams that brought the best semi-long shot odds that could trigger a potentially large payout. It’s tempting to make a bet based on favourable odds but the truth is, the 5-10 ranked teams almost never win in the NBA. They are often mirages attached to long odds that never carried any real weight.

This year is completely different, and the 5-10 range looks more like opportunity knocking. That’s because there are no clear-cut favourites and no elite class of three or four teams. No, this season the elite class is ten-deep, which means the longer odds at 5-10 look nothing like a mirage. They look juicy as hell.

We will take a look at some of the more tempting odds available in NBA Futures betting in the following fortnight. Today, let’s take a look at two Western Conference powerhouses as an example of how the odds are now in your favour:

 

The Portland Trailblazers:

They have two terrifying All-Stars, a great team structure, a rabid fan base, fantastic experience, depth and coaching combined with stability in their roster. Currently, they are fourth in the insanely and historically competitive Western Conference leading into mid-February. They are real contenders in every sense of the word.

And yet, they are ranked around 12th in NBA Championship odds at a whopping and highly intriguing 30-1! That means $100 will net you $3,000 if you place your bet today.

To put this into perspective, the betting favourites are the Golden State Warriors at 4-1 odds. A $100 bet would get you $400 if the Warriors win, but the same bet will net you $3,000 if the Trailblazers win.

That is a hefty gap in potential payout, and yet there is very little to separate the two teams in reality. The Warriors are better, sure. But not by THAT much. Portland is a very tempting bet because the potential payout doesn’t quite reflect how good this team is.

 

The Oklahoma City Thunder:

They were the consensus preseason favourites to win the West and for good reason. When you have two of the eight best players in the game, you’re going to be fine. They have also, crucially, been to the Finals (and lost) recently. That experience, in addition to going deep into the playoffs every season means that OKC knows how to handle playoff pressure. With two superstar closers in Durant and Westbrook, there is no team in the NBA that likes to play the Thunder.

Early season injuries to their All-Star tandem completely derailed OKC’s season. Combined with a surging Western Conference, OKC isn’t even in the playoffs leading into the All-Star break.

However, injury aside, not only is OKC a lock to recover and make the playoffs, they are likely to go deep as they usually do. Beneath all the injuries (which are behind them now), they are the actual and symbolic top team in the West.

Normally, this means their chances of winning the championship should be closer to Golden State’s 4-1 odds. And yet, OKC is currently ranked at around 7th in the odds chart at a juicy 10-1 payout.

Assuming OKC is actually OKC again come playoff time (and most observers think they will be), that means you can place a bet today with 10-1 odds that is, in reality, a 4-1 bet. Should OKC win the title in June, that’s a bet that pays over twice as much as it should have in normal circumstances.

If these two teams and their odds of winning sounds too good to be true, then welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season. This is the one year in recent memory where the league’s contenders list is ten-strong.

Usually, the 5-10 section of ranked teams is an oasis in the desert; you only see what you want to see. This year? That oasis is real, and some lucky folks are going to have a lot of fun drinking at the water’s edge.