Tag: NBA odds

NBA Betting: Elite Teams Struggling as Playoffs Loom

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There is now less than a month until the end of the regular season and the league’s elite teams have started playing a long game. This has seen the likes of the Golden State Warriors, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards all suffer a slump as they surrender to fatigue and complacency. They already have one eye on the playoffs and are trying to ensure they are in ship shape come mid-April, so now can be a good time to bet against them covering the spread.

Top Teams Struggling

No top team is in a greater period of malaise than Golden State, hit by injury to Kevin Durant and enduring its worst spell since Steve Kell took over as head coach in 2014. The Warriors lost three times in a row – against the Celtics, Timberwolves and Spurs – and then, as we predicted last week, failed to cover the spread against Philadelphia. Golden State has since bounced back with heavy wins over Orlando and Milwaukee, but it could be worth opposing them in spread betting over the next couple of weeks. Ditto the Cavs, who have regularly failed to cover the spread of late. The Wizards have also lost focus and dropped against teams with losing marks.

Teams Finding Form

As the elite teams have suffered, some teams further down the conferences are finding their feet and making a late push for the playoffs. In the east, it is Miami and Milwaukee. At 7-3 and 8-2 respectively, they have the best recent records in the conference and both look set for the postseason. Milwaukee is really one to watch, driven by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is on course to be the first player ever to finish the regular season in the top 20 for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. In the west, the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers are both 7-3 in 10, and only the San Antonio Spurs can match that.

Futures Update

The recent struggles of Golden State have opened the door for the in-form Spurs. They have a head-to-head advantage over the Warriors and look set to steal top seed in the west if things continue as they are, so the 4/1 Ladbrokes is offering on them winning the east looks interesting. The Cavs’ inconsistency and the Wizards’ recent woes have left the Boston Celtics as the form team of the east and the 7/1 at Sky Bet on them taking that conference is another intriguing option.

Upcoming Games

Golden State travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks on Wednesday, and Dallas is the league’s fifth-best team for covering the spread, so that looks a great bet. Antetokounmpo’s in-form Bucks play the Kings in Sacramento on Thursday and should win that outright, and cover a modest spread. The Nuggets look a great bet to cover the spread against the Cavs that day too, while on Friday a Spurs-Celtics-Trail Blazers outright treble looks a good option as all three are playing well.

San Antonio Spurs Threaten to Usurp Warriors After Durant Injury

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With less than six weeks until the playoffs, an injury to star player Kevin Durant has threatened to derail the chances of NBA Championships favourites the Golden State Warriors. Without him, the Warriors have lost twice in a row and the supremely consistent San Antonio Spurs are now hot on their heels in the race to emerge as the top seed in the Western Conference. The Warriors are now no longer a sure thing in the west, and that has blown the race to the Finals wide open, making the season more exciting than ever.

Western Conference

Durant sprained his knee in a freak accident that occurred when teammate Zaza Pachulia backed into him while fighting for a rebound. The team initially feared he would miss the rest of the season, but the prognosis now looks a little more positive as he might make it back in time for the playoffs. But by that time, Golden State could have been overtaken by San Antonio as the number one seed in the west. After losing Durant they suffered back-to-back defeats to the Wizards and Bulls, the first time in 146 games they had lost twice in a row – an NBA record. They missed his ability to stretch the court, and the Golden State offence has looked out of sync as opposing teams have crowded Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10, the best record in the league, and are on a seven-game winning streak. They are now just three wins behind Golden State and are driven by the constantly improving offensive prowess of Kawhi Leonard. This has pushed Golden State out to 2/5 with Betfred for the west, while San Antonio is now 9/2 with William Hill, which looks a very interesting bet. Even if Durant makes it back in time for the playoffs he could be carrying an injury still, and suddenly the Warriors do not look quite as invincible.

Eastern Conference

The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards have been putting pressure on the Cleveland Cavaliers for top seed in the Eastern Conference for some time and that has continued. At 7-3 in their last 10, the Wizards have the best recent form in the east, which makes the 12/1 888Sport is offering on them to win it look an intriguing option. But the Cavs look back in business now that LeBron James is strapped up and ready for the home straight and the team has been bolstered by Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut and most of the action is likely to go on Cleveland, who are 4/11 with Sky Bet, William Hill and Boyle Sports.

MVP Race

Despite topping most player power rankings since Christmas, James Harden has failed to pull away from Russell Westbrook in the betting for regular season MVP. With just six weeks to go, Harden is evens with William Hill, while Westbrook is 6/4 with Bet Victor. What counts against Westbrook, however, is that the Thunder are not a great team and a lot of his hard work goes unnoticed. Harden’s Rockets are a genuine threat to Golden State and San Antonio in the west and he has emerged as the best point guard in the league this season with the stats to back it up, so even money at William Hill looks great right now.

Upcoming Games

A huge game that could help decide the ultimate Western Conference table sees Harden’s Rockets travel to San Antonio to face the Spurs. It should be close, but recent form points to a San Antonio win and the 3/5 at Bet365 looks good. On Wednesday the in-form Wizards are at the Phoenix Suns and should cover a heavy spread against a team committing 15.1 turnovers per game. On Thursday, Celtics v Warriors looks too close to call, but a treble of the Spurs to beat the Kings, the Wizards to beat the Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks to beat the Brooklyn Nets looks great.

NBA Western Conference teams are asserting their dominance

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Golden State Warriors have returned to the top of most pundits’ NBA power rankings after going on a seven-game winning streak. The odds on them winning the NBA Championship have gone into 4/5 on the back of this fine run of form, and they look unstoppable at present. The only teams enjoying similar winning runs are the San Antonio Spurs and the Utah Jazz, both Western Conference teams. It makes it look increasingly like the winner of the NBA Championship will come from this conference.

Winning Conference

The Golden State Warriors are favourites to avenge last season’s Finals defeat to LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers and win another NBA Championship. It would be their second in three years and they really have been the dominant force in recent times. Over in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs lost their last game to leave them with a win ratio of .714. That does not compare at all favourably to the Warriors’ .864 or the Spurs .791. Even the third best team in the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets, have a better record than Cleveland, with a win percentage of .723.

Below the Cavs in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors and Celtics are both on losing streaks, and none of the leading teams are playing all that well. In any power rankings, five of the top six teams right now would come from the Western Conference. The favourites, third favourites and fourth favourites to win the NBA Championship are all Western Conference teams, so it looks like the winner will come from this conference. Bet365 and Sky Bet are running books on which conference will produce the winner of the NBA Championship and both are offering 2/5 on it being the Western Conference, which looks a great bet right now.

Northwest Division

Most of the divisions look sewn up and are dominated by clear frontrunners, but one that looks interesting still is the Northwest, where the Utah Jazz are in front on 29-16, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder on 25-19. The Thunder have MVP candidate Russell Westbrook, but that has not been enough to stop them losing their past two games. The Jazz, meanwhile, are on a remarkable six-game winning run, a streak bettered only by the Warriors, and Rudy Gobert is in fantastic form for them. They already have a healthy advantage and the gap should widen, so the 5/12 available at Ladbrokes on the Jazz winning this division looks a great bet.

Upcoming games

On Tuesday the Warriors play the Miami Heat and should win comfortably, so much so that they are just 1/8 with Betfred and Paddy Power. These teams played on January 11 and the Warriors ran out 12-point winners. Since then their form has been immense: they have won their last five games by 20 points, 35 points (against the Cavaliers, no less), 21 points, 17 points and 20 points. The Heat are on a three-game winning run but are likely to come unstuck against the Warriors, who can cover an 11-points spread at 10/11 with Betfred and Paddy Power. Wednesday sees leading lights from the Western and Eastern Conferences face off as the Spurs, second in the Western Conference, play the Toronto Raptors, second in the Eastern Conference. Expect the supremacy of the Western Conference to be asserted here with a narrow win for the Spurs, who are in excellent form while the Raptors have lost two in a row. On Friday the Jazz plays the LA Lakers and should cover a generous spread.

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: Do the Houston Rockets have a chance to win the NBA Finals, or will a fading Dwight Howard be their undoing?

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In this historically unpredictable NBA season, we’ve covered the championship cases for the Portland Trailblazers, OKC Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Today, we look at the Houston Rockets and Dwight Howard, their curiously flawed star center.

March 3, 2015

 

Playing elite NBA championship basketball requires many distinct qualities. First, you must have that extra gear for the playoffs (and yet another for the Finals) regardless of how well the regular season went.

You need all twelve players to be on the same page, regardless of whatever interpersonal issues the team carries (and they all carry a few). Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant disliked each other vehemently at times, but that didn’t stop them from winning three straight titles together.

You need a unified team that is committed and consistently on overdrive. You need a team that just wants it more than their opponents.

In short, these attributes contribute to two of the most important factors in an NBA Championship bid: true desire and mental toughness.

Professional basketball fans over the age of 30 have lived through a tougher, more physically and mentally demanding era of NBA basketball that younger fans simply haven’t experienced in the current family-friendly age of the NBA.

That’s one of the reasons star players like center Dwight Howard (Houston Rockets) and power forward Blake Griffin (LA Clippers) have as many detractors as they do fans. Talent means a great deal in the NBA, but that alone will never deliver a title. You need mental toughness and a relentless drive to be the best every single day. You need leaders with true presence who will lift the team above the sum of its individual parts. That’s how championship teams are born.

Dwight Howard has more natural talent than he knows what to do with. But he has never shown the required drive and mental toughness to truly excel. He is the second best player on his team, and his easygoing approach to basketball just isn’t enough, especially at a time when he’s passing his athletic prime.

However, this is a freak NBA season. Usually, teams like the Rockets don’t have a realistic chance to reach the Finals regardless of their regular season record. But this is a historically open NBA season with the deepest field of credible contenders ever, and there are no truly elite teams.

So, even a perennially flawed “contender” like Houston actually has a chance of winning this year. It’s a golden opportunity. But will they be able to take advantage?

In short, no. Let’s have a look at why your money is better spent elsewhere.

 

The Curious Case of Dwight Howard:

I’m no fan of Dwight Howard. I like my superstar players to actually give a damn every game. I like seeing them care enough to add a couple of iron-clad moves to their game every single summer. I like to see the drive to improve all aspects of their game all the time, because guess what? THAT’S WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN.

The margin of error in the NBA Playoffs is so thin that every single unit of preparation could be the factor that dictates your glory or your doom. Dwight Howard has never shown he wants it all that bad.

For the first five seasons of his NBA career, Howard was so freakishly athletic that he could breakdance his way to total domination in a league where dominant centers are now an endangered species. I do not wish to sell Howard too short, because he was often spectacular during his early years, easily amassing around 20+ points and 15 rebounds per game with 3-4 blocks while single-handedly defending the paint with venom.

His athleticism was overpowering, but unfortunately for the fun-loving Dwight, Father Time is undefeated. You cannot just rely on freakish athleticism, especially if you are, like Dwight Howard, seriously limited on the offensive end.

The truly great ones prepare years in advance for that time when their knees won’t give them the same explosiveness anymore. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, for example, began to perfect their post-up games well before their 30’s. LeBron James was a little late to do the same, but he still crafted a deadly low post game before he turned 30. All three players used foresight to perfect a part of their game that would serve them sustainably well into their late 30’s. That’s what I call drive.

Dwight Howard has exactly two post moves and can’t shoot outside of eight feet. That’s pretty much what he came into the NBA with. He never quite figured out how to score with efficiency and brains. This year, he will turn 30 and that is an evil harbinger for superstar centers, historically speaking.

Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal are the four greatest true centers in the past three decades. All of them began to fade at the age of 30, because the NBA is particularly taxing on superstar big men.

Dwight Howard has had back surgery in the last two years. His numbers across the board are slipping. Take a look at these averages per game from 2011 and now:

2011 Dwight Howard: 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 11.7 free throw attempts, 2.4 blocks

2015 Dwight Howard: 16.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 6.9 free throw attempts, 1.4 blocks

All four of the elite centers mentioned above were better players than Dwight Howard, and far more resourceful offensively. And yet when their numbers dipped after they turned 30, not a single one of them was able to regain an elite level of play ever again. When the statistical slide starts for a center, the drop is far, far steeper than for other positions.

If these four all-time greats couldn’t halt the ravages of time, there is no way that Dwight Howard can.

As such, this current version of Dwight Howard is the only one Houston can count on, for better or worse. 2011 Dwight ain’t never coming back. He might make a small cameo (like in last year’s series against Portland), but you simply can’t count on him to be there.

Which leaves Houston’s championship hopes squarely on the shoulders of superstar guard James Harden, a credible MVP contender this season.

James Harden is a great player, no question about it. But James Harden is also one of the laziest defenders in the entire NBA. This year, he’s actually trying to play defense consistently for once, in part because his laziness was so atrocious that a video documenting them became viral on YouTube.

However, is that supposed to be reassuring? A superstar player who only started playing real defense after he was shamed into it over the course of five seasons?

That tells us one thing about James Harden: he is immensely talented and very, very good. But no player who defends as poorly as that as a habit can ever be a truly elite player, namely that rare type that can conceivably carry a team to a title by himself.

They make all the right noises about desire and wanting to win, but the facts are the facts:

Dwight Howard never made enough of an effort to improve his game for a time when his athleticism declines.

And James Harden is bloody good, but is also the type of player who seems to arrogantly play defense only when he “needs to”.

Not exactly a pair of mentally tough customers.

You know what’s also funny? Houston head coach Kevin McHale was also known for being a fun-loving guy during his storied Hall of Fame career. He may have won three championships as Larry Bird’s sidekick on that 1980’s Boston Celtics dynasty, but he drove the psychotically competitive Bird absolutely nuts with his oft-relaxed approach to the game.

Bird often moaned about how McHale could be the league’s best player if only he applied himself fully. Celtics coach Bill Fitch once asked McHale in exasperation: “Why can’t you be more like Larry?”

McHale’s response? “Because I have a life.”

That attitude, unfortunately, reminds us of his star center in Houston now, and that’s not good news for the Rockets faithful.

And let’s not forget this: McHale may not have been the most driven of superstars, but even with this in mind, he ended up being the finest low-post player in NBA history (nobody, and I mean NOBODY, had more unguardable post moves). He became the best power forward to ever play the game not named Tim Duncan. That’s how good Kevin McHale was.

Dwight Howard is no Kevin McHale.

And crucially: McHale played with Larry Bird, one of the five greatest players and competitors of all-time.

James Harden is no Larry Bird, not even a little bit close.

As such, the three main figures in Houston all have mental flaws or wavering levels of effort. The will to win cannot be taught. And the lack of it doesn’t translate to NBA titles.

 

Does the odds picture make things more enticing?

Actually, a little. They’re sitting on 22-1 odds right now, which is the 10th ranked odds contender. That’s a decent return for the Rockets, if only because of the unpredictability of the league this year.

Still, I can’t see Houston winning in any circumstance. My natural anti-Dwight bias plays a part, but I’d still save my bet for a better team or at least, for a team that is truly underrated.

Such as the Portland Trailblazers, who are sitting on a ludicrously generous 30-1 odds (you can even find a 40-1 offer at Ladbrokes!). I’m not saying the Blazers will win, but they are just as good, if not better, than the Rockets.

The Rockets aren’t worth a punt. They just don’t have enough mental steel. Out of the West, I’d pick the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Dallas Mavericks (18-1) or even Portland (30-1) before I’d pick the Rockets.

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Which of the Two Consensus Favourites Will Win the NBA Title?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

NBA futures betting for the Championship has never been more open. Today, we break down the chances of the consensus favourites from each conference: the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

 

February 27, 2015

 

Both the pundits and the media at large have settled on the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers as consensus favourites to meet in the Finals. It’s the type of matchup that makes people forget their families for a week.

In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors started the season as a dangerous young team with a bright rookie head coach in Steve Kerr. We expected them to build on their 51 wins last season, and perhaps advance another round in the playoffs.

Nobody expected them to erupt with a 23-3 record, matching an all-time mark set by the 1996 Chicago Bulls (in fairness, those Bulls extended that streak to a ludicrous 41-3). The Warriors have also been a top 5 defensive team consistently. In a Conference with an unprecedented eight contenders, Golden State has played most like the top dog. Their consistency, incredible outside shooting and their balanced, unselfish play means no team has yet to challenge that status.

In the Eastern Conference, the star studded Cleveland Cavaliers are Jekyll and Hyde. The consensus preseason favourites, the Cavaliers were disappointing at first with a terrible 5-7 record. Then, they won eight in a row and all was well. Next, they lost nine of ten games and the world was ending.

Now, they’ve won 18 of their past 20 games including a massive win in Golden State last night. LeBron James remains the league’s undisputed best player. He’s in his prime and flanked by two bona fide All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who are finally figuring out how to play with James. They’ve made trades that addressed their primary weaknesses (lack of post defense and rim protection) and are now primed for a championship run.

Without question, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the most dangerous team in the NBA.

However, while both Cleveland and Golden State have been the best of their respective conferences, they are not a lock to meet in the Finals. The field of contenders is so abnormally deep this year that one could see either the Cavs or Warriors losing in a seven game series.

Welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season, where everything is up in the air. Let’s break down the case for Golden State’s and Cleveland’s championship hopes.

 

Golden State’s Case:

Stephen Curry is like a walking, talking video game. His game is completely unique in NBA history. A guy who takes shots with such a high degree of difficulty simply should not be this efficient at making them. He makes over 40% of his three point attempts, shoots 49% from the field and is the deadliest shooter at the point guard position in a league that’s overflowing with them.

Next to him, we find young shooting guard Klay Thompson who has just exploded in a rainbow of ridiculous outside shooting. Remember Curry’s shooting stats? Here’s Thompson’s: 44% from three point range, 47% from the field overall, and almost every shot is outside of 18 feet.

He broke Twitter and the basketball media last month with 37 points in a single quarter against Sacramento. In a QUARTER! Twelve minutes of an NBA game and he hit 13 straight shots and NINE of them were threes! Needless to say, it’s an NBA record.

A year ago, the Warriors head coach at the time claimed “The Splash Brothers” were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history. We scoffed at him then. After all, don’t these two have a lot more to prove first?

Now, it doesn’t look like misguided hyperbole from a protective coach. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are absolutely on their way to becoming the finest pure shooting backcourt in NBA history. They’re not there yet, but their list of competitors grows thin.

Combined with a truly team-first dynamic, an excellent cast of versatile role players, a highly promising young coach with five Championship rings as a player, and the best home crowd in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are the real deal.

However: they live and die with Andrew Bogut’s injuries. Their only real rim protector, the Aussie center is disproportionally important to Golden State’s title hopes. But the problem is Bogut is highly injury-prone. If he’s out come playoff time, it represents a significant problem for the Warriors. Power forward David Lee is a gifted low post scorer and rebounder, but he is one of the most atrocious defenders in the entire NBA.

There is no depth in the Warriors frontcourt if Bogut is unavailable. Let’s not forget: the Western Conference path to the Finals is like a gauntlet of pain. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge and some guy named Tim Duncan are just a few centers that Golden State can count on meeting come playoff time.

If Bogut isn’t 100%, that’s big trouble in a Conference that is overflowing with the NBA’s finest big men.

 

Cleveland’s Case:

LeBron James. Isn’t that enough? In a league dominated by superstars, LeBron is the undisputed best player. Let’s put it this way: last year’s Miami Heat team, with LeBron James, finished with a 54-28 regular season record.

LeBron jumped ship over the summer and returned to Cleveland. This season, Miami are sitting on a terrible 25-31 record with basically the exact same team minus LeBron. They’re barely in the playoffs in a historically bad Conference. With James, the Miami Heat played in four straight NBA Finals.

The best players matter more in the NBA than any other sport. It’s just that simple, and in LeBron James Cleveland has the unanimous best player.

They have depth and scoring chops in spades with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. They addressed their big man void with shrewd signings in Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins. They have perimeter defending and shooting sorted. And their early season growing pains with an unhappy Kevin Love seem to be in the past.

However, let’s address the 800-pound elephant in the room: inexperience.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are incredibly talented All-Stars. But together, they have played in exactly ZERO NBA playoff games in a combined ten NBA seasons. For a pair of stars as celebrated as these two, that is utterly unacceptable.

They may have the game, but do they have the brains? Are they mentally ready for a level of basketball that they have never experienced before?

But at least they’ve got NBA experience. The same cannot be said for their head coach. A daisy fresh rookie, David Blatt has never coached or even played in a single NBA game.

There have been numerous reports this season of LeBron defying his play calls and basically coaching the team himself out on the floor. James says he respects Blatt, but it is hard to believe that one of the NBA’s ten greatest ever players, a two-time champion and four-time MVP, would take an NBA rookie head coach seriously all the time.

Players look to LeBron for guidance. If he doesn’t buy in to coach’s game plan then they won’t either. The truth is that in one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory, Cleveland are still only third in the standings and a full ten games behind the Atlanta Hawks.

Much of that is down to the fact that Cleveland has been a work in progress throughout the season. A lot of their bickering comes from egos and not being on the same page while negotiating the growing pains suffered by any newly formed team.

Which brings us to this point: teams simply do not form and win a championship in their first year playing together. The 2008 Boston Celtics are an exception that proves the rule, but they never had to deal with coaching inexperience or team identity. They knew who they were on day one and were utterly unified. Cleveland took nearly 60 games to figure it out.

That being said, nobody in the East can stop Cleveland. It’s not even going to be close. Even Atlanta is going to struggle mightily against such a scoring juggernaut in Cleveland. The Cavs are a lock to make the Finals.

That’s where their championship hopes will be severely tested, because all eight playoff teams from the West have a better chance to beat Cleveland than the entire East combined.

Will raw talent, fiery scoring and the game’s best player be enough for the Cavaliers to win their first ever NBA Championship?

My brain says no. The West is too deep, and Cleveland just isn’t as unified as I would like to see in a truly elite contender.

But this is the NBA, where the game’s best player commands an abnormal amount of influence.

My heart says Cleveland absolutely can win the NBA title this season.

Both Golden State and Cleveland’s odds for winning the title is around 4-1, representing the joint-favourites. Should they meet in the Finals, that matchup would be incredibly difficult to call. But when push comes to shove, only one player from either team has won NBA titles: LeBron James.

I don’t feel good about it, but I might have to pick Cleveland to win this season’s NBA Championship.

 

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Are the Atlanta Hawks For Real? A Look at their Odds and their Case for the Unlikeliest of NBA Titles

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

February 24, 2015

 

At the time of this writing, the Atlanta Hawks lead the NBA Eastern Conference standings with a 44-12 record. To put these Hawks into context: they are sitting on a .786 winning percentage with two-thirds of the season gone. That’s on pace for the 20th most winningest season in NBA history.

That’s a better record than Larry Bird’s first Boston Celtics championship season in ’81. Or the dominant ’89 champion Detroit Pistons. Or the ’98 championship Chicago Bulls, led by some guy named Michael Jordan. Or dozens of other championship teams in NBA history.

The Atlanta Hawks are baffling because a team of overlooked consolation prizes almost never come together to challenge for NBA titles. They have zero elite players and have remained largely unchanged for two seasons. Suddenly, they’re winning more games than Larry Bird.

You’d have to go back to the 2004 Detroit Pistons to find a comparable team of overachievers that came out of nowhere to dominate. That Pistons team further shocked the world by winning the NBA Championship, but that is a historical anomaly.

In the past 30 years, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons can be described as a complete underdog champion. Sure, a few other teams in that period have punched above their weight to claim a title. But these teams had at least a shot at winning. Nobody gave the ’04 Pistons the slightest chance in hell to win it all.

Teams without an elite great player do not win NBA titles. But the 2004 Detroit Pistons somehow managed to win despite not having one. The previous championship squad without an elite superstar was the 1979 Seattle Supersonics.

Whoever bet on that Pistons team to win must have made an obscene amount of money and commanded twice as much in bragging rights. This year’s Atlanta Hawks is the first team to come along since then that reminds us of those Pistons, in terms of how unlikely their championship bid seems regardless of what the standings say.

Can the Atlanta Hawks do the same and shock the world? Let’s have a look at the case for and against Atlanta as we compare them to the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

 

The Case for Atlanta:

 

The very nature of this NBA season itself is Atlanta’s best case. We are enjoying a historically open season where a normally predictable landscape has been made highly unpredictable. Usually, an NBA season features two or maybe three elite contenders and one of them invariably wins. Teams ranked 4-10 almost never win.

This year, we have no truly elite teams. Instead, we have an incredibly deep field of 8-10 credible contenders. This almost never happens in the NBA and it is a partial explanation for Atlanta’s excellent season thus far. There are so many teams in turmoil or development (especially in the East) that teams like Atlanta can exploit them with its stability and unselfishness.

Those ’04 Pistons were relentlessly unselfish, and it allowed them to play a slow-down brand of suffocating basketball with players that knew exactly what their roles were. They were the epitome of “stronger than the sum of its parts.”

Atlanta has that same unselfishness and stability. Their head coach, Mike Budenholzer, spent 18 years as an assistant for legendary Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich, before landing in Atlanta last year. That’s a PHD in winning and unselfish basketball, taught by one of the five greatest coaches in NBA history. Budenholzer learned well from Popovich, and the Hawks (nicknamed “Spurs East” in some media circles) now exhibit the same unselfish team-first principles that helped to make the Spurs a dynasty.

In a Conference where powerhouses such as Cleveland and Chicago are still finalizing their team structure, Atlanta is already the finished product. Great, team basketball can hide many shortcomings, and this Atlanta team learned from the best.

 

The Case Against Atlanta:

 

This is going to be a far longer list than the case for the Hawks winning, but that’s the whole point! Nobody saw the ’04 Pistons coming, even though their “cons” list must have rivalled the one I’m about to write for the Hawks.

First of all, we have to identify a few simple facts: the 2004 Pistons were coached by the all-time great Larry Brown, while the promising Budenholzer is still finding his way.

Also, the 2004 Detroit Pistons were a historically dominant defensive team. They were an absolute monster to score against. Detroit basically sucked the life out of their opponents with a defense that was hard to watch even for purist basketball nerds.

But it worked! Larry Brown took his team’s one elite skill and turned it into an all-time defensive brick wall. They may have lacked the firepower, but they rode a legendary lockdown defense all the way to the top.

Atlanta has a very good defense, currently ranked third in the league in points-per-game allowed and opponent’s field goal percentage. However, they are not the ’04 Pistons defensively, mainly because, well, nobody is.

That Detroit front line was an all-time nightmare to play against. Rasheed Wallace was one of the finest post defenders around. Tayshaun Prince was long, fast and a relentless lockdown defender who could guard four positions at an elite level. And big Ben Wallace, a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, was a once-a-generation defensive force.

With all due respect to Al Horford, Paul Millsap and whoever is starting next to them, Atlanta is not in the same league as 2004 Detroit.

You can’t win a title without a good-to-great defense, which Atlanta has. But it’s not an all-time dominant defense, which means they won’t ride it all the way to a title like Detroit did. Even those Pistons would secretly admit they were lucky to win it all, because they, like the Hawks, were limited by their lack of an elite superstar.

You need one of those to win in the NBA, and the Hawks do not have anything resembling a star closer. In the tensest moments of playoff basketball, sometimes you just cannot score against iron-clad defenses regardless of how good your team is playing. That’s when you need a dominant player who can create opportunities from nothing.

Atlanta doesn’t have that closer. They will meet playoff defenses and will struggle to score against them in key possessions. The best player matters in a playoff series, and these Hawks might not have a single series in which they have the best player on their side.

Finally, let’s look at the odds picture to see if that makes a punt worthwhile.

Currently in late February, a futures bet for an Atlanta Hawks championship stands at a lukewarm 7-1, which means a $100 bet would get you $700. This makes them the fourth favourites to win it all, and only Golden State (4-1), Cleveland (4-1) and defending champion San Antonio (6-1) are ranked above them. For a team as unlikely to win as Atlanta, 7-1 odds are not exactly enticing.

In context, current Western powers such as the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Houston Rockets (17-1) and the insanely underrated Portland Trailblazers (30-1!!!) all have far more enticing payouts (and arguably, better teams).

Atlanta is rated this highly because they play in the terrible East where only two other teams are contenders (Cavs and Bulls). The Eastern path to the Finals is like a beach holiday compared to the bloodbath we can expect in the West, where all eight playoff teams have a shot at winning.

So, sure, Atlanta has a better chance at getting to the Finals than the Western teams mentioned above, but guess what? Even if they get there, they still have to actually play one of those teams. That’s when Hawks supporters become quiet again.

I’d have a punt on Atlanta at a minimum of 12-1 odds, but at 7-1 it doesn’t look good at all. Portland, at a ridiculously mouthwatering 30-1 odds, is arguably a better team than Atlanta. The Blazers are the team I’d bet on purely for the ludicrously generous payout.

But Atlanta at 7-1 odds just doesn’t do enough to make me forget how flawed they are as a contender. They are tearing up the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal. At 7-1 odds, it’s not worth betting on Atlanta and what may well be an unproven playoff team who overachieved at the wrong time in the NBA season.