Cricket: Southee doubtful for Black Caps at Basin

New Zealand’s 2014 was uncharacteristically positive.  Sri Lanka’s was decent too.  Now, in a World Cup year the focus is less on the five day format and more on the one day international showpiece starting in February.  That shouldn’t stop the teams from taking the second test at the Basin Reserve seriously though.  Sri Lanka need a win to continue their solid overseas record of late and draw the series, while New Zealand will look to continue their momentum after the first up win in Christchurch.

Whatever the motivation for this match up, it’s likely to be played on a very green wicket, with early indications suggesting this pitch will do plenty early on.

The Last Time These Two Met

New Zealand’s first up win confirmed their rise to genuine world beaters.  A blistering 2014, which saw them record 5 test wins, has set the tone for their immediate future and for their World Cup chances.  The Black Caps dominated throughout the Christchurch first test; Brendon McCullum wrestling away the early initiative and despite some second innings stoic resistance from Sri Lanka, Trent Boult and Tim Southee finished it off.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely): 1 Tom Latham, 2 Hamish Rutherford, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5  Brendon McCullum (capt), 6 James Neesham, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mark Craig, 9 Neil Wagner, 10 Tim Southee/Doug Bracewell, 11 Trent Boult

Tim Southee is under an injury cloud after suffering a minor ankle problem in training.  Doug Bracewell is on standby and didn’t play the latest round of domestic cricket in NZ in what could be a strong indiction he will play.  Corey Anderson is fit again but won’t push out Nessham after his crucial runs and wickets in game one.

Sri Lanka (likely): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Kaushal Silva, 3  Kumar Sangakkara, 4 Lahiru Thirimanne,  5 Angelo Mathews (capt),  6 Dinesh Chandimal, 7 Prasanna Jayawardene (wk), 8 Rangana Herath/Tharindu Kaushal, 9 Dhammika Prasad/Nuwan Pradeep, 10 Shaminda Eranga, 11 Suranga Lakmal

Sri Lanka could make any number of changes to their side.  Heath could be fit and will walk into the side as the third best test bowler in the World.  Danish Chandimal may play instead of Niroshan Dickwella, and lastly, Dhammika Prasad’s place may be under threat from Nuwan Pradeep.

The Key Players

Mark Craig – Easily the most improved member of the Black Caps side.  Craig may be a late bloomer but he’s certainly making a great impression in his first season of international cricket.  He’s averaging 45 with the bat, is a sound slip fielder, and has already registered a five wicket bag and ten wicket bag in just seven matches.  Look for him to continue to contribute at the Basin Reserve.

Dimuth Karunaratne – How good was the little left-hander in game one?  Facing a stern Boult and Southee test the opener showed his fellow top order batsmen how to cope with the unfamiliar conditions by playing late and deciding in advance his best areas to score.  If Sri Lanka are any chance in Wellington they need to prevent losing early wickets, something Karunaratne can help achieve.

The Odds*

New Zealand – $1.73

Draw – $5

Sri Lanka – $3.25

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Betstar.

The Prediction

The weather looks good for all five days and with the rate that modern day teams score their runs draws are few and far between these days.  The $5 odds are tempting, and Sri Lanka did bat for long periods in their second innings.  That said, we’re picking 10-13 wickets on day one and New Zealand to win by an innings.

Cricket: McCullum stamps exclamation mark on quality year

The Black Caps incredible 2014 has given their (sometimes) loyal fans reason to believe.  To believe in the possibility of a rare period of dominance for the vastly under-resourced cricketing nation.  To believe the hype – that they are World Cup smokies, in the same way the 1992 Young Guns were.

The side completed their fifth test win of the year, over a Sri Lankan side that is improving rapidly in their travels away from the comforts of home.  The five wins is the most they have registered in a calendar year in the history of test series record-keeping (approximately 1930).  They have come against quality opposition too – India, West Indies, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.  That is, they are more significant than wins against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh (with respect), and outline the professionalism and standards this team now play with.

Although the team’s cohesiveness can be pointed to as a reason for a strong finish to the year, in truth, their captain Brendon McCullum was the major factor in this particular win.  Capping off his own incredible year – the destructive batsman scored 1164 runs in the year, the fourth most in World cricket – made a remarkable 195 from just 134 balls.

The first innings assault came after New Zealand had lost the toss and were expected to struggle on a pitch offering assistance to seam bowlers.  However, McCullum had other ideas as he danced down the wicket, forced the Sri Lankans to bowl a more amenable length, and deposited it to all parts of the fresh Hagley Oval.  In all, he struck 18 fours and 11 sixes in a dominant performance that made a mockery of losing the much hyped toss.  Mccallum was the aggressor in a match defining partnership of 206 with Jimmy Neesham (85) that gave his fearsome swing bowling tyros, Tim Southee and Trent Boult an ample total to defend.

They duly obliged.  Destroying the tourists in their first turn at bat.  All out for 138.  They had five wickets between them, leaving Neil Wagner (3-60) to mop up the tail, and giving McCullum the easy decision to enforce the follow on.  Southee and Boult also obliged in the second innings but only after the fantastic rearguard efforts of the entire Sri Lankan team.  Led by the patient Dimuth Karunaratne (152), the Lions withstood for 154 overs and scored 407, to leave New Zealand a chase of 10 to win the game.  Lahiru Thirimanne (25) offered support by way of time, and Angelo Matthews (66) offered support in the form of both runs and balls to help add credibility and competitiveness to the game that was only ever going in one direction after the first innings.

New Zealand reached the small target with the loss of just two wickets – as we predicted earlier in the week.  Kane Williamson was not out 31 and Ross Taylor not out 39 to conclude 2014 in a winning manner.  The Black Caps an Brendon McCullum enjoyed their best ever years, and will be hoping to continue the momentum in 2015.  The teams reconvene in Wellington on January 4 for game two.

Revised Series Odds*

New Zealand 2-0 – $1.64

New Zealand 1-0 – $1.80

Drawn – $2.02

Odds brought to you by Betfair Australia.

New Zealand 441 (McCullum 195, Neesham 85) and 107 for 2 beat Sri Lanka 138 (Boult 3-25, Wagner 3-60) and 407 (Karunaratne 152, Boult 4-100, Southee 4-91) by eight wickets

Cricket: NZ, Sri Lanka converge on a green Hagley Oval

A couple of interesting firsts will occur when the Black Caps and Sri Lanka meet in the first of two tests starting Boxing Day.  One, Hagley Oval in Christchurch hosts its first ever test match after recently been given the ICC green light.  The test will allow the city and administrators for their role in the World Cup when they host three pool games including the opener between these two teams.

Secondly, the match is the first time in a long time that Sri Lanka won’t have stalwart Mahela Jayawardene in their middle order.  After making his test debut in 1997, Jayawardene has been a middle order hero for the best part of 149 games.  The adjustment to a middle order without him will make for fascinating viewing in game one, especially if as expected the Hagley Oval pitch is full of pace and bounce and Sri Lanka lose early wickets.

New Zealand will be looking forward to showing the New Zealand public the side’s new found confidence.  In last 12 months they have enjoyed test success against India, West Indies, and Pakistan, and gave the sporting public plenty of reasons to support them last summer (who could forget McCullum’s triple hundred).

The Last Time These Two Met

In November of 2012, New Zealand were in the midst of mutiny madness.  The story goes something like this: The Coach wanted Brendon McCullum to captain the side – but Ross Taylor was the captain – so they summoned Taylor to a mid-tour getting in a hotel room to explain they wanted a change – Taylor then went out and scored 142 and 74 in the second test to help NZ win by 167 runs and square the two match series.  Brendon McCullum has since rightfully taken over as captain and has transformed the NZ side.  They now play with aggression and confidence and Taylor too has been “reintegrated” nicely back into the set up.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely): 1 Tom Latham, , 2 Hamish Rutherford, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Brendon McCullum, 6 James Neesham, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mark Craig, 9 Doug Bracewell/Neil Wagner, 10 Tim Southee, 11 Trent Boult

The only possible changes to this side would see Dean Brownlie slot into number 5 with Brendon McCullum opening.  Otherwise the Bracewell / Wagner battle is the only contentious point.

Sri Lanka (likely): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Kaushal Silva, 3 Kumar Sangakkara, 4 Lahiru Thirimanne, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt.), 6 Dinesh Chandimal, 7 Prasanna Jayawardene (wk), 8 Tharindu Kaushal/Dilruwan Perera, 9 Dhammika Prasad, 10 Shaminda Eranga, 11 Suranga Lakmal

Prasad will probably be given the third seamers role with Tharindu Kaushal/Dilruwan Perera battling it out to be the teams specialist spin option.

The Key Players

Hamish Rutherford – McCullum’s move down the order has made room for the Otago-based left hander to return to the top of the Black Caps batting lineup.  It’s a place where he enjoyed brief success – on debut when he made 171 against England – but has struggled ever since (his average has plummeted below 30).  With Tom Latham well established at the other end Rutherford needs a good series to join him as a permanent fixture.

Suranga Lakmal – There are reports coming from the Sri Lankan’s warm up game (and indeed from the final two one layers against England) that Lakmal is looking much sharper than he did against South Africa in June.  It appears he’s added a yard or two of pace and could be a handful on the assisting wickets.  Sri Lanka will likely need to blood a third seamer on this tour meaning Lakmal will be expected to play a senior role with ball in hand.

The Odds*

New Zealand – $1.83

Draw – $3.00

Sri Lanka – $5.00

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Bet365 Australia.

The Prediction

New Zealand have understandably asked for a surface that will play to their seam bowling strength.  The Hagley Oval pitch is already looking green and Sri Lanka lose the toss and bat first this one could over quickly.  Fine weather is forecast throughout this one so I can’t see it ending in a draw.  Therefore, New Zealand to prevail by 8 wickets.

We also like the look of BetEasy’s option on Sri Lanka’s top bowler int the first innings being the above featured Lakmal, paying $4.33

Cricket: Williamson’s runs and Henry’s wickets deliver NZ win

New Zealand finally settled the long running debate over who was having the better tour between them and Pakistan.  After a tied test series, a tied T20 series, and the first four one layers also being split between the teams, the Black Caps’ 68 run win gave them bragging rights for the flight home.

The final one layer at Abu Dhabi was one of the more one-sided out of any of the games the two played.  In friendly batting conditions New Zealand’s middle order mainstay of Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor combined to do the bulk of the scoring.  Williamson completed his eight half-century from his previous ten innings (one of the others was 46) and Taylor made a measured 88 not out to see New Zealand through to 275/4 from their 50 overs.  The wickets in hand suggested New Zealand could have pushed on to a bigger total but without the likes of Brendon McCullum and Corey Anderson to clear the rope, 275 had to suffice.

Dean Brownlie continue his puzzling run of form.  His last few bats have yielded 47, 42, and 34 to indicate a level of comfort at the top of the order that could help solve NZ’s World Cup dilemma, but it has frustrated some that he couldn’t completely anchor the innings and score large totals himself.

As Pakistan set about their chase to win the series they immediately found themselves in early trouble when Matt Henry and Anton Devcich reduced them to 38/3.  Unfortunately, the Pakistanis could not find the consistency and momentum to get anywhere near the target – Henry in particular compounding their woes with 5-30.  Henry has already shown a tendency to take bags of wickets – this is his third fourth wicket in just six games – and like Brownlie is now a strong favourite to feature in the reduced World Cup squad.

Haris Sohail top scored for Pakistan, but as has been the case for much of the series, the top order left too much for him and Afridi to do.  Save for game three, the top order for Pakistan just haven’t been able to find form at he same time, with early wickets always curtailing the chances of big scores.  Ahmed Shehzad was the exception in this one, however he wasn’t able to recreate his game three knock and scored only a half century of his own in the disappointing chase.

Cricket continues soon for both sides.  New Zealand host Sri Lanka in 2 tests, 5 ODI’s, and 1 T20 before hosting the rest of the World when the World Cup begins in mid-Feb.  Pakistan on the other hand host Bangladesh and Zimbabwe in two short sharp encounters.

New Zealand 275 for 4 (Williamson 97, Taylor 88*) beat Pakistan 207 (Sohail 65, Shehzad 54, Henry 5-30) by 68 runs

Cricket: New Zealand and Pakistan to finally be separated

A series decider in a tour that has been shared all the way through was somewhat predictable. Nevertheless that won’t make the decider any less intense where the sides have the opportunity to declare themselves the overall victor of the six-month duel.

Neither side has won two games on the trot in the series, so based on that logic the Pakistan side will be brimming with confidence. They deserve to be too, because in all the games they have lost, they have fought hard (even in the seven run loss the last time they played where the side were heavily distracted). Conversely, the Black Caps’ loses have been emphatic. They seem to have an ingrained consistency that prevents them from being a really good side.

This is likely to manifest again tonight, especially with the inexperienced line-up.

The Last Time These Two Met

Kane Williamson scored an impressive hundred to set up a strong NZ total that ultimately proved too much for the Pakistan line-up. A century to Younis Khan – the oldest player to do so in the history of ODI cricket – and some late fireworks from Shahid Afridi were not quite enough for Pakistan who were attempting to become the first side to successfully chase 300 at the ground.

The Teams

Pakistan (likely): 1 Mohammad Hafeez, 2 Ahmed Shehzad, 3 Younis Khan, 4 Asad Shafiq/ Nasir Jamshed, 5 Haris Sohail, 6 Umar Akmal, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Shahid Afridi (capt), 9 Sohail Tanvir, 10 Anwar Ali, 11 Mohammad Irfan

Nasir Jamshed may move down the order or he may miss out altogether after he failed in game four; resulting in Mohammad Hafeez returning to the top of the order.

New Zealand (likely): 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Dean Brownlie, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Tom Latham, 6 Corey Anderson, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Nathan McCullum, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Adam Milne 11 Mitchell McClenaghan

Daniel Vettori has already flown home, which opens up an opportunity for Nathan McCullum.

The Key Players

Martin Guptill – The lanky New Zealand opener is often the subject of intense debate in his native New Zealand. There are those that feel a fit Jesse Ryder is a better option for the tournament co-hosts, especially given Guptill’s tendency for sluggish starts. He played himself into a little form with 58 in game four and we’ll be hoping for more crease time to enhance his World Cup prospects.

Mohammad Irfan – Irfan has been impressive in a series that has seen fast bowlers get smashed to all parts. His record of 7 wickets at 26 is among the best in the series, but it’s his economy rate of 5.13 that is making us take note. On grounds that are notoriously difficult to defend Irfan has done a tremendous job.

The Odds*

Pakistan – $1.62

New Zealand – $2.3

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Luxbet. Luxbet have a number of cricket specials on at the moment, in particular, the Big Bash League specials. Visit their site for more details.

The Prediction

The two sides are incredibly evenly matched. Both have batsmen in form, both have handy spin options, and both have seamers that have tested the opposition in the relatively benign conditions. That makes it tough to pick a winner here, but we just feel Pakistan have been more consistent and will get home.

Interestingly, we saw awesome odds for a tied amount of sixes hit by the teams. It’s paying a whopping $7.25 and is well worth a fiver.

Cricket: Powerful Pakistan slam New Zealand

Pakistan scored 221 from the last 25 overs; 125 off the last 10; 65 from the last five and amassed a total that was far too strong for the Black Caps in Sharjah today.  The imposing total of 364 was built around a superb century from opener Ahmed Shehzad (113), and a quick fire blast from captain Shahid Afridi (55).  Shehzad was the initial architect, picking up on a series of loose New Zealand overs to pull and slash his way to a sixth ODI hundred.  His innings was nicely orchestrated with an abundance of singles – 41 of them in total – and a4 neatly timed boundaries.  He was helped no end by New Zealand’s inconsistent bowling effort by their back-up seamers and friendly paced allrounders.  Of the New Zealand attack only Nathan McCullum went for under six runs-per-over, whereas most of the others went for plenty; Corey Anderson went for 96 from his ten – the third worst figure in one day cricket by a New Zealander.

Afridi’s blitz was something special.  He has found a level of consistency he rarely displays in this series and his contribution with bat, ball and in the field was an impressive example for his players to follow.  His response, along with most of the Pakistan line-up, to the short pitched bowling that had worked so well in the series thus far was combative.  The midwicket region was as productive as any as Pakistan admirably stood up to the barrage of short bowling.

New Zealand’s unlikely attempt at Pakistan’s third highest total in ODI cricket got off to a typically disappointing start.  On his return from injury Martin Guptill only succeeded in mistiming two pull shots, one of which was caught.  Devcich failed, and the Black Caps best players were asked to do it all, again.  Earlier in the week Brendon McCullum had explained to media that he would not swap his numbers 3 and 4 for any others in World cricket, and for a brief time it seemed entirely plausible that Taylor and Williamson could get NZ close.  But shortly after Ross Taylor had struck three 6’s in eight balls, he missed an attempted cut off Afridi to be bowled for 31, and New Zealand limped to 217 all out.

Williamson played nicely again for 46 before falling to indecision while Ronchi added 41 late runs to further outline his value down the order.  The big concern for New Zealand will be the double failing of all-round duo Jimmy Neesham and Anderson who continue to struggle in both skills.

The series heads back to Abu Dhabi where New Zealand need to win both to take out the series.  Sportsbet Australia don’t think they can; they have listed NZ at $4.50 to win the series.  They also have Series Score markets of: Pakistan 3-2 @ $1.91, and Pakistan 4-1 @ $2.50.

Pakistan 364 for 7 (Shehzad 113, Afridi 55, Henry 3-63) beat New Zealand 217 (Williamson 46, Afridi 3-37, Sohail 3-45) by 147 runs