Tag: Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Stakes Preview

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The Flat season gets into gear this weekend with the first of the Guineas trials at Newbury. The Dubai Duty Free Stakes (better known as The Fred Darling) has been the starting point for many classic campaigns over the years and has attracted a good class field on Saturday.

My 1000 Guineas hopes are firmly with Godolphin’s Ihtimal and it is doubtful whether anything in this field will change that view. One filly that could yet emerge as a Guineas candidate is Al Thakira who won her first two starts impressively before floundering in the Breeders’ Cup. That may just have been too much too soon for the daughter of Dubawi and her homework has been encouraging.

Her victory in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes in October certainly entitles her to start favourite here but there may be better value elsewhere. The Charlie Hills duo of Coral Mist and Dutch Romance are of particular interest as they both rewarded support for this column last term.

Coral Mist put up an eye-catching debut when third to Valonia, charging through late at odds of 33-1. The race produced several future winners including runner-up Stars Above Me. Valonia attracted the attention of Qatar Racing and was snapped up before her next start at Ayr.

Having duly landed her maiden, Coral Mist was well backed for the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes and made rapid late headway to get the verdict in a bunch finish. Eight horses crossed the line within just over a length of each other including Valonia in fourth. It is generally agreed that a lot of horses finishing together are unlikely to all prove useful. Normally I would agree but Coral Mist’s style of racing encourages me to keep faith with her.

She looked to have an impossible task behind a wall of horses with a furlong to run but kept on in determined style for Tom Queally. That was on good to soft ground (as forecast for Newbury) and she now gets an extra furlong. Providing they don’t go too slow, I think she is great each-way value. Dutch Romance also caught the eye on her debut before winning well at Salisbury in heavy ground. She ran a bit too keenly here in Listed company in October and was third to Aqlaam Vision. She could also be worth following this summer.

The impeccably-bred Joyeuse and Lowther Stakes flop J Wonder are others to note in a fascinating contest.

Coral Mist at 6-1 Paddy Power

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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With the Cheltenham festival now so close, it is no surprise to see a lack of top performers in action at Newbury and Doncaster this weekend. The exception is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase where several Grand National entries are put to the test.

The one that stands out is Monbeg Dude who was due to run in the Haydock Grand National Trial a couple of weeks ago. He was pulled out at the last minute due to an unsatisfactory scope. I believe that will prove to be a blessing in disguise as the race was run in atrocious conditions. It resulted in a 1-2 for Venetia Williams with Rigadin De Beauchene coming home clear of Emperor’s Choice.

Had Monbeg Dude taken his chance there, it may well have set him back for Aintree and he will be far happier at Doncaster. I fell into the trap of having him down as a mudlark after his wins at Cheltenham and Chepstow last season but he proved me wrong in some style last time out.

I supported Theatre Guide on the strength of his excellent third in the Hennessy Gold Cup and he looked to be travelling best for most of the race. That was until Monbeg Dude moved up to him approaching the last and made him look very ordinary. He has been raised 8lbs for that victory but looks attractively priced at around 6-1 on Saturday.

Michael Scudamore’s nine-year-old is clearly being aimed at Aintree but Paul Carberry can produce him late to capture this valuable prize. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Godsmejudge who I have backed at 33-1 for the National. The Scottish National winner can be forgiven his poor Sandown run as Alan King shut down his yard shortly afterwards due to a virus.

Emma Lavelle’s Court By Surprise is the early favourite after finishing second to There’s No Panic in the London National. The form for that race has been torn to shreds with the third, fourth and fifth all running badly next time.

Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup has attracted a modest bunch and I’m inclined to take a chance with the veteran Dashing George at 8-1. He is old enough to run in the veteran’s race earlier in the card but looked on good terms with himself when winning at Fakenham last time. He almost unseated his rider at the first but settled into a good rhythm and a similar effort might prove good enough against some in-and-out performers.

Monbeg Dude at 6-1 Bet Victor (Grimthorpe Chase)

Dashing George at 8-1 Paddy Power (Greatwood Gold Cup)

Denman Chase Preview

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Once again we face a week of uncertainty as regards the prospects of racing at the weekend. The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Tote Gold Trophy, Schweppes Gold Trophy) is the big race of the week. Those who remember it as the Schweppes will be half expecting the meeting to be abandoned as it used to be even money whether or not the meeting would take place.

I have just read that one forecast has estimated 70mm of rain for the Newbury area. If that is true, we could be having a raft race instead! Assuming that particular forecast is wrong, let’s take a look at the Denman Chase.

The hot favourite here is the popular grey Al Ferof who was third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. The thing about this one is that he is yet to win over three miles and it is personally reasonable to doubt his stamina. It is worth remembering that he won the two-mile Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he has only had three starts in the past couple of seasons.

I’m certainly prepared to take him on but the question is with what? Triolo D’Alene is my long-term Grand National fancy and I’ve noted that Nicky Henderson has pulled him out of two races recently due to the heavy ground. The weights for the National are due out next week and I can’t see him risking getting a late hike in the weights.

Harry Topper interests me after running on stoutly to finish third behind The Giant Bolster and Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase. His jumping was a bit deliberate at times and it was a bit of a stop-go effort. Newbury should suit him better and he has to be respected.

However, after last weekend’s Venetia Williams benefit, I am going to side with Katenko. He was fancied by a few people to run a big race in the Gold Cup last year before injury intervened. I wouldn’t quite put him in that class but he loves this ground and ran a stormer in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.

He kept plugging away and was not beaten far in fourth place, a marked improvement on his previous efforts. The Williams horses last weekend ran as though they had improved a stone overnight and Katenko only needs a few pounds to go close here.

Katenko at 6-1 Bet Victor

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post update

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Twenty-nine horses have been left in the Betfair Hurdle including both Irish Saint and Irving from the Paul Nicholls stable. The Trainer has warned that Irving is unlikely to run if the going is extremely testing and that seems to be heavy hint as to the direction our cash should be going in.

Irish Saint bolted up in the mud at Ascot last time and has been raised 12lbs by the handicapper. Because of the conditions of Saturday’s race, he gets in here with only a 5lbs penalty so is theoretically 7lb’s well in at the weights.

These handicap good things don’t always win but, with the going currently soft and heavy in places, the omens are good for Irish Saint. Noel Fehily keeps the ride and I imagine that he couldn’t believe how well he was going at Ascot on this horse. He had previously run in the Ladbroke and got bogged down in the middle of the chasing pack.

That race may also hold the key to his biggest danger as David Pipe’s Dell’ Arca was still in touch when unseating his rider three out. The form for the big two-mile handicaps is really hard to fathom this season with neither the Greatwood nor the Ladbroke being boosted since. I backed Sametegal (2nd) in the Greatwood but he was slaughtered up at Musselburgh on Sunday.

It is difficult to be too confident about how Dell’ Arca will run as Pipe has had a couple of notable disappointments with Dynaste and The Liquidator. The victory of Red Sherlock recovered a bit of faith so we’ll give Dell’ Arca an each-way chance here.

Alan King’s Montbazon was on my horse to follow list a couple of seasons ago but has been out injured since finishing fourth at the festival behind Cinders And Ashes. This would be a very ambitious place to start him off by King has entered him in the Champion Hurdle so obviously believes the talent is still there. With the stable still recovering from the virus, I can’t support him here but I shall be keeping a close eye on him.

Of the others, Cheltenian is another that has had his problems and is hard to weigh up on a win in a poor race at Uttoxeter. His trainer managed to get that good hurdler Snap Tie back to win a big prize a couple of seasons ago so you cannot rule him out here.

Irish Saint at 7-1 Bet365

Dell’ Arca (each-way) at 9-1 Coral

¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Betfair Hurdle Preview

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The weather is continuing to play havoc with the racing programme in the UK and it is not looking that great for the weekend. The bookmakers have not even bothered pricing up the Saturday races so perhaps they know something we don’t?

If the weather relents by the following weekend, the Betfair Handicap Hurdle is scheduled for Newbury. Last year’s runaway success for My Tent Or Yours seems to have put everyone in the mind-set that a smart novice is what is required to win this. Admittedly Darlan was travelling ominously well the year before when he fell but he was exceptional too. What a shame that his life was so cruelly cut short.

The “talking horse” this year is Irving, trained by Paul Nicholls. He is currently vying for favouritism in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and there is no doubt that he is pretty smart. Having said that, he is not exactly thrown in on 11st 2lb against some seasoned handicappers.

Although I tipped him when he won impressively at Ascot last time, I’d be worried about those that he beat. Prince Siegfried had not yet been shaken off when he fell and he ran deplorably next time. The third and fourth have also been well beaten so I don’t think we should rushing to take 7-1 in a race like this.

Having mapped out this race for Irving, you get the feeling that Nicholls was taken slightly by surprise when Irish Saint romped home at Ascot in the heavy ground. It is true that he expected some improvement but he won so easily that the trainer is almost obliged to run him here under a 5lb penalty. The handicapper has stuck him up 12lbs for winning that race so he is officially 7lbs better off here.

The doubts are whether he will be so effective over this shorter trip and on potentially better ground. I’d also wonder whether he will get such a free run here as they tend to go like a bat out of hell in this race and we’ve seen him struggle in similar contests. If the field cuts up and the going rides heavy, then Irish Saint would be a logical choice.

I was really impressed by Flaxen Flare’s run in the Boylesports hurdle at Leopardstown last week. I had gone through that race inside out and come to the conclusion that he was just too high in the handicap but he ran a blinder to finish second to Gilgamboa. The vibes are that the winner will miss this and head to Cheltenham but I have no idea whether Flaxen Flare will have a crack at this race.

Cheltenian has been through the wars since winning the Cheltenham bumper in 2011 and it’s hard to fancy him on the back of an easy win in an egg-and-spoon race at Uttoxeter. He did hit a few hurdles there and this will be a different kettle of fish if we get a big field.

With several trainers holding multiple entries, the sensible policy at the moment is to sit tight and wait for the next acceptance stage. The weights could go up and change the complexion of the race completely. Watch this space!

Newbury Friday Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup meeting started with a low key meeting on Thursday but Friday’s card is an improvement. Wonderful Charm goes for a quick hat-trick when he lines up for the Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at 2.05.

The Paul Nicholls-trained French import won impressively at Fakenham first time out and then followed up in a much better race at Wincanton. He pulled back three lengths from the last to deny Fox Appeal with Third Intention ten lengths away in third. He ran too freely in the early stages and is still learning his trade but he has plenty of potential.

His main rival tomorrow is David Pipe’s Tanerko Emery who was second to Raya Star over fences before running a respectable seventh behind Dell’ Arca at Cheltenham. That form received an early boost when Ifandbutwhynot (tenth) came out and won the Gerry Feilden Hurdle today.

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier at 1.30 has attracted a huge field. The one that catches my eye is the consistent Twelve Roses. It’s a sobering thought that I can remember this one’s grand-dam winning at Cheltenham! That was Rose Ravine who beat stable companion Crimson Embers in controversial circumstances for Fulke Walwyn.

Twelve Roses seems to have inherited her battling qualities if her recent effort is anything to go by. Kim Bailey’s mare forced More Of That to pull out all the stops at Wetherby before going down by just a length. The winner came out and won a much better race at Haydock last weekend and looks like being yet another high-class performer in the JP McManus colours.

Of course there are plenty of dangers including the hat-trick seeking Minella For Steak and David Pipe’s Western Warhorse. Chiberta King is another interesting runner having won at Royal Ascot in the summer. If he can transfer that kind of form to hurdles he is well weighted here.

Looking further ahead, my two selections for the Hennessy have stood their ground with Barry Geraghty electing to ride Triolo D’Alene. This has caused Hadrian’s Approach to drift and his jumping admittedly causes concern in such a big field. There is still no clear favourite and it looks like the most open renewal of the race in recent years.

Wonderful Charm Evens 888Sport

Twelve Roses 6-1 Bet365