Tag: Newmarket

1000 Guineas Update

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In February we advised taking the 16-1 about Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas and she is now a top priced 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Our regular readers will know that she has been a star filly for this column, providing us with four wins in her last five races.

I first noticed her running on gamely at Royal Ascot last summer and she has done nothing but improve ever since. The reason for her still being so attractively priced for the Guineas is probably her third place behind Chriselliam and Rizeena on her final start of the season. I don’t think De Sousa was at his best that day, riding her well off the pace and she could never land a blow at rivals that were still quickening.

Unlike favourite Rizeena, Ihtimal has already won over a mile and has the Epsom Oaks in her sights as well as the 1000 Guineas. I suppose it is easy to be sceptical about the value of the form in Dubai but she was hugely impressive in the UAE Oaks. She absolutely pulverised her rivals and is going to arrive fit and fancied next month.

Clive Brittain is one of life’s great optimists and has always maintained that Rizeena was more than just a speed filly. She has already shown that she gets seven furlongs well and should stay a mile but I cannot see her as a 4-1 chance or even shorter. Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always a threat but I haven’t seen anything run a better trial than Ihtimal at Meydan.

Miss France and Vorda have run poorly in the build up to this race and I’m convinced that the latter is a sprinter. It would be great to see George Margarson win a classic with Lucky Kristale but she looked a nervy filly last season and she will find this difficult first time out. The Newbury trial won by J Wonder looked average and I did not see anything in the Nell Gwyn to worry Ihtimal.

Finally, it was sad to hear of the passing of former BBC commentator Julian Wilson at the age of 73. Televised racing has gone through some changes since Wilson and O’Sullevan departed, very few of them for the better. He retired in 1997 and I dread to think what he must have thought of the BBC’s total capitulation in televising the sport.

Ihtimal at 10-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

Newmarket Thursday Preview

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The opening day of the Craven meeting was packed with competitive racing but Thursday’s card does not look quite so appealing. The headline Craven Stakes has effectively been reduced to a duel between Toormore and Be Ready.

Godolphin have high hopes for Be Ready, a strapping chestnut son of New Approach. He was well-touted before his debut at Newbury in August but he was a big, raw two-year-old and found the more streetwise Somewhat far too good. Although beaten four and a half lengths, he still showed plenty of potential and landed his maiden at Doncaster the following month.

He looked much more the finished article that day and quickened away from Barley Mow to win by three lengths. That form may not be top drawer but he has entries in the 2000 Guineas and the Derby and is clearly well-regarded.

On the bare form, he has no real chance of beating Toormore over this trip. Richard Hannon’s Guineas hope won the Group 1 National Stakes in September to be the top-rated two-year-old. Giovanni Boldini finished third in that race and went on to finish second to Outstrip in the Breeders’ Cup, another horse beaten by Toormore last season. If Toormore is anywhere near his peak, he should provide Ryan Moore with a comfortable success.

The bet of the day has to be Roger Varian’s Aljamaaheer who drops back to sprint distances in the Abernant Stakes. The five-year-old will be having his first race over six furlongs since his debut win at Yarmouth in 2011.

Regular readers of this column will have fond memories of Aljamaaheer from last season, grabbing some each-way profits for us at big prices in the Lockinge and the Queen Anne Stakes. His run in the Queen Anne was arguably a career-best when going down by just three-quarters of a length to Declaration Of War.

He is known to prefer faster ground and conditions should be perfect for him on Thursday. Heaven’s Guest was a real money-spinner for Richard Fahey last season, winning four races including a valuable seven-furlong handicap at Ascot. He should come on for his run behind Dinkum Diamond at Doncaster last month and can claim place money.

Favourite-backers will be on good terms with themselves if both Toormore and Aljamaaheer oblige and Just The Judge could make it three in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. She won the Irish 1000 Guineas last season but did not run up to that level on three subsequent starts. There were valid excuses for her on each occasion and she is entitled to win this.

Newmarket

Toormore (4.05) at 8-11 William Hill

Aljamaaheer (3.30) at 6-4 Paddy Power

Just The Judge (4.40) at 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket Wednesday Preview

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Newmarket’s Craven meeting gets under way on Wednesday. It hardly seems like five minutes ago that we were looking forward to Cheltenham and here we are looking for classic clues! It will take something spectacular to trump the performance of Kingman at Newbury last weekend. I tipped him at 14-1 for the Guineas last June and that looks pretty good value now.

The fillies dominate day 1 of the Craven meeting and last year Sky Lantern finished second in the Nell Gwyn here. Although she ran well, few would have expected her to turn out to be such a brilliant filly throughout the rest of the season. It may be optimistic to expect there to be anything of her calibre lining up tomorrow but I’m keen on the chances of the once-raced Folk Melody.

My regular readers will know that I am an ardent supporter of Ihtimal for the classics this season but Folk Melody could give Godolphin a useful second string. She won her maiden nicely enough and was going on strongly at the finish. She is by Street Cry out of that good mare Folk Opera so it is entirely possible that she will need further in time but is worth a bet at 8-1 here.

Godolphin can double up late in the day when True Story reappears in the Feilden Stakes. He holds some ambitious entries and did little wrong in his two starts as a juvenile. He was second to subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Outstrip before landing his maiden in good style. I regard Somewhat as the main danger as he ran some fine races as a two-year-old, notably when second to Berkshire in the Royal Lodge.

I also like the look of Parbold in the European Free Handicap. Richard Fahey won this last year with Garswood and Parbold has a very similar profile. If anything he has a better record going into this event so must give weight to his five rivals. It’s a disappointing turnout for such a good prize but that won’t worry Parbold’s connections.

My old friend John Gosden is winning with everything he saddles at the moment and has two runners tomorrow, both likely to start favourite. Provident Spirit finished second at Doncaster on his debut and can put the experience to good use in the opener. Munjaz was unlucky not to open his account here last year and can further boost Mr G’s incredible strike rate in the 5.10.

Newmarket

1.45 Provident Spirit

3.30 Parbold at 4-1 Stan James, Totesport

4.05 Folk Melody at 8-1 William Hill

4.40 True Story at 3-1 Bet365

5.10 Munjaz

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

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Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport

Newmarket Friday Preview

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On Friday last week I picked out Lady Cecil’s Squire Osbaldeston at Nottingham but he was withdrawn when the ground became testing. His trainer obviously has a good opinion of him and decided to re-route him to Newmarket this week rather than risk him on a heavy ground and the move can pay off handsomely.

He went into my notebook when he was desperately unlucky at Goodwood in May, getting out all too late and finishing strongly in fourth behind Eshtiaal. There was clearly more to come from this good looking son of Mr Greeley but he did not reappear until September.

Under a confident ride from Tom Queally, he easily saw off Hawker by two and a half lengths at Lingfield and has the potential to be better than a handicapper. If that is the case, he should have little difficulty winning off a mark of 85 at Newmarket and rates the nap at odds of 2-1 with Paddy Power.

I have been singing the praises of young Oisin Murphy for quite a while and he struck again with a big odds treble last weekend. Not surprisingly, he is now in big demand while he has a handy 5lb claim and John Gosden is among those using his services.

I’m sure that Murphy will give Willow Beck a good ride in the 3.05 at an each-way price. The form of this filly is difficult to weigh up because she was bang there with Phaenomena and Astonishing here last month. Astonishing went on to win her next race by a country mile but Phaenomena looked as slow as a boat at Lingfield on Thursday. Even so, Willow Beck is game and consistent and the 5lbs off is a bonus.

Whatever Murphy’s fate on that one, he has sound claims on Ballinderry Boy who goes in search of a hat-trick for his retained stable of Andrew Balding at 3.40. He’s gone up 6lbs for beating Man Of Plenty at Ascot but that creature is not the most reliable and he can confirm the form.

Squire Osbaldeston 2-1 Paddy Power

Willow Beck 7-1 Bet Victor, Coral

Ballinderry 11-4 Bet Victor, William Hill

Racing Preview Saturday 12th October

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Graphic (tipped at 5-1) more than made up for a disappointing run from Dungannon at York on Friday. There are more big fields at Newmarket and York and Newmarket on Saturday to tempt punters but there are a couple of two-year-olds that catch my eye.

The first is Richard Fahey’s Rufford who goes in the Rockingham Stakes at York. A winner here back in June, the son of Invincible Spirit disappointed at Pontefract on his next outing behind Cool Bahamian. He first caught my eye when running on strongly after a slow start in the valuable sales race here in August.

He was a well-backed 6-1 shot that day and flew home in fifth place behind Haikbidiac. Plenty of winners have come out of that race since, notably Nezar, Green Door, Ventura Mist and Morning Post. He was allowed to start at 20-1 for the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury but raced right up with the pace and plugged on when challenged on all sides. In the end, he only gave best by three-quarters of a length to stable companion Supplicant.

He holds Figure Of Speech on that form and is clearly the one to beat. The lightly-raced Outer Space could be the main danger but 4-1 looks a good price with BetVictor.

My second selection is Lightning Thunder in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. This filly has always been held in high regard by Olly Stevens and has around 12lbs in hand on her rivals tomorrow. She followed up her debut win by scrambling home at Doncaster but she showed how good she is in the Oh So Sharp Stakes.

She looked to have the race won when she was sent to the front over a furlong out by Harry Bentley but Miss France arrived late on the scene to beat her by a head. Lightning Thunder was left a bit high and dry in front on Newmarket’s wide open spaces and may have idled slightly but it was still a good effort. The winner is the new favourite for the 1000 Guineas and it will be disappointing if Lightning Thunder cannot win tomorrow.

Rufford 4-1 BetVictor

Lightning Thunder 5-6  Stan James, Totesport