Tag: Newmarket

Cesarewitch Ante-Post Preview

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The Cesarewitch has recently been run largely for the benefit of National Hunt trainers with the likes of Messrs Henderson and Pipe enjoying considerable success. Henderson is back in search of more with his admirably consistent handicapper Lieutenant Miller but there are some classy horses in opposition.

Tiger Claw runs in the same colours as Lieutenant Miller and has not run since winning the Ebor for Lady Cecil. He is set to race off a 6lbs higher mark but connections have not been phased by that or by the prospect of lumping 9st 10lb between Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Clearly both horses are fit and fancied with Ryan Moore an eye-catching booking for Henderson’s charge.

The Irish are not averse to the occasional tilt at this valuable prize and plenty of punters see Domination as a likely winner after two easy wins over hurdles. I am slightly put off by the fact that he has risen 18lbs since winning here in the Cesarewitch Trial just over a year ago. Pallasator was considered a possible for the Ebor earlier in the season but did not reappear until Haydock last month when staying on dourly behind Platinum. He is still lightly-raced and bookmakers are always wary of Sir Mark Prescott’s runners in the big handicaps.

However, they are presently running scared after a plunge on French raider Smoky Hill. The horse has halved in price since trainer Mikel Delzangles declared his intention to run whatever the conditions. By coincidence, Delzangles had just started working for Jimmy Fitzgerald when Trainglot won the race in 1990 in the same colours that are to be carried on Saturday by Smoky Hill.

He has stated that the horse is very well handicapped, something that is quickly apparent when looking at his last run. He finished fourth in the Prix Gladiateur, a Group 3 race. To get some idea of the form lines, trailing in his wake were Genzy (104) and Aiken (112). Smoky Hill gets in here with a rating of just 91. Earlier in the season he had finished only a couple of lengths behind Melbourne Cup hope and Gold Cup third Top Trip (113).

It appears that he has about 10lbs in hand, if the official figures are correct. His trainer has confirmed that he’ll run irrespective of the ground conditions so 10-1 looks too good to refuse.

Smoky Hill 10-1 (Sportingbet)

Racing Preview Saturday 5th October

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Ballinderry Boy (tipped at 4-1) gave us something to shout about at Ascot on Friday and young Oisin Murphy certainly looks like a star of the future. It presumably won’t be too long before he is snapped up to ride for one of the leading owners. As anticipated, the rest of the card proved difficult although Blessington (2nd) ran a promising race and can win before the season is out.

I’m previewing the Arc separately but there is plenty of racing going on in the UK to keep punters happy this weekend. If you thought Ascot’s card was difficult on Friday, the bad news is that it looks even harder on Saturday! There is competitive racing throughout with the bookies going 8-1 the field in the Challenge Cup.

Ascription has not exactly been let in lightly with top weight but this trip and ground should suit him better than the nine furlongs of the Cambridgeshire, his intended target before the ground firmed up. There will probably be something lurking lower down the handicap to beat him but I’m hoping that he will give us a run for our money.

Nargys has been called a few names this season after turning in below par efforts. She is very smart on her day and things finally fell right for her at Doncaster last month when she won the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes. I’m hoping that the soft ground is the key to her and that she can repeat that performance on Saturday.

The Cornwallis Stakes looks wide open but I believe that Royal Mezyan is over priced at 11-1. He won very easily last time and had previously finished close up behind No Nay Never at Royal Ascot.

Over at Redcar, I’m surprised to see Emirates Flyer priced up as high as 7-1. If he bolts up tomorrow a few people will be kicking themselves for not believing his 2-length second to Kingman at Sandown. It is true that the 2000 Guineas favourite had a lot more up his sleeve but Emirates Flyer might just have more class than most of these.

Johnny Murtagh has been winning everything in sight since he obtained his training licence and he has a good chance of adding the Tattersalls Millions tomorrow. He rides Toofi for Roger Varian who landed a gamble when beating Jallota here 2 weeks ago. Oklahoma City is the obvious threat but 9-2 looks decent value.

Hopefully Luca Cumani’s Ajman Bridge can round off the day’s proceedings with victory in the closing handicap. He was having only his second start when winning nicely at Pontefract in a race that looked fairly decent. He shaped like a horse with a future and can take this on the way to better things.

Ascot 2.05 Royal Mezyan 11-1 Coral, William Hill

Ascot 3.50 Ascription 8-1 William Hill

Ascot 4.25 Nargys 4-1 William Hill

Redcar 3.30 Emirates Flyer 7-1 Bet365, BetVictor

Newmarket 2.20 Toofi 9-2 William Hill

Newmarket 5.15 Ajman Bridge 15-8 William Hill

Newmarket Day 3 Preview

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Ihtimal and Rizeena were both eclipsed by 28-1 shot Chrisellium and Channel 4 viewers were “treated” to repeated showings of Willie Carson doing a celebratory jig. He’s a part owner so he’s entitled to celebrate but it seems a bit strange that he should choose a Clive Brittain-esque routine, especially having just beaten Clive’s top filly? No doubt Channel 4 have their reasons for turning it into the Willie Carson show but it merely served to remind me to watch only the racing and switch off the guff in between.

As for the race? Well, I am disappointed that De Sousa held up Ihtimal in last place considering she was one of the few fillies absolutely guaranteed to get the mile. Rizeena was at least given a chance to win her race but she doesn’t like being in front too long and that was enough for Richard Hughes to seize his chance. I wouldn’t lose faith in either filly for the classics next season.

The Cheveley Park Stakes has lost some of its lustre with Rizeena having been diverted to the mile but it still throws up an interesting clash between Kiyoshi and Vorda. If Rizeena doesn’t like being in front, Kiyoshi is positively quirky! She ran sideways when winning at Royal Ascot and seemed to hang fire as soon as she was kicked ahead by Spencer in the Moyglare. That resulted in a disqualification and the pressure is on the jockey to make amends on Saturday.

Charlie Hills will be hoping to bag his second trial in two days but I think the French challenger may prove too strong. She won her first three races before being pitched in against the colts in the Prix Morny. She ran a cracker, just losing out to the impressive No Nay Never with Rizeena staying on into third. A repeat of that form should be good enough but Kiyoshi is the obvious threat.

I will be watching Berkshire’s return to action with interest in the Royal Lodge although I can’t support him after such a lengthy absence. I also have plenty of respect for Mark Johnston’s Somewhat after his Newbury win and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made his superior fitness count. I shall also bypass the Sun Chariot as it is now a long way back to the Guineas and there’s no telling whether Sky Lantern and Just The Judge are still on song.

Vorda (2.35) 2-1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)

Newmarket Day 2 Preview

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Friday’s card at Newmarket features arguably the most interesting clash of the week with Rizeena and Ihtimal meeting over a mile at 3.15. I am a big fan of both fillies and it is little wonder that they both figure highly in the ante-post market for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

When Rizeena surged through to take the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, most pundits were happy to disregard Clive Brittain’s rhetoric that she could be a Guineas filly as being typical of his optimistic outlook on life. When she was beaten by Lucky Kristale at Newmarket, it did seem that she may be more a speed machine but subsequent runs in France and Ireland have proved otherwise.

Her fast finishing third in France behind No Nay Never offered every encouragement that she would stay beyond six furlongs and she duly landed the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. I  believe that her rivals played into her hands that day but she was the winner on merit and clearly has superior form to Ihtimal.

The Godolphin filly has improved with every race this season and I was very confident that she would win the May Hill at Doncaster. She was given a good lead by Majeyda before producing an impressive burst of speed to go clear. She had put in a similar display in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket previously, running on powerfully at the finish. She seems a straight forward filly whereas Rizeena might just have a tendency to hang fire when she hits the front.

I was expecting the odds to reflect that the race is a virtual match despite the presence of the unbeaten Sound Reflection and the useful Wonderfully. To my surprise, Ihtimal has been chalked up at 3-1 by Bet365. To my eyes, that is great value. If she is beaten by Rizeena then so be it, but I’d have thought she was a 2-1 shot or shorter.

The card opens with 15-length Lingfield scorer Radiator in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She meets much stiffer opposition here including Lightning Thunder who did us a favour at Doncaster and the French raider Miss France. Andre Fabre doesn’t waste his time sending over moderate horses so it could be an interesting little contest.

Other horses to  note on a top quality card include the smart maiden Yuften who passes up some Group race entries to run in the 3.50 and John Gosden’s Gatewood (4.25). The latter shaped well on his comeback race after a spell in Australia and could still have a future as a Cup horse.

Ihtimal (3.15 Newmarket) 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket Day 1 Preview

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Grandeur (tipped at 5-2) outclassed his rivals at Goodwood yesterday to take our level stakes profit over the past 21 selections to 18 points (85%). Long may it continue! Doncaster was an extremely profitable meeting with winners on all four days and the Town Moor form is likely to dictate whether or not we make a profit at Newmarket this week.

The Cambridgeshire meeting is a curious mixture of exciting two-year-old races and tricky handicaps featuring horses that are just possibly going over the edge after a long summer. With that in mind, I’m planning to stick to horses with recent form and not with too many miles on the clock.

The selection for Day 1 has to be John Gosden’s rapidly improving filly Phiz in the 3.10 race. This filly was having only the fourth start of her career when beaten by The Lark in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster two weeks ago. My regular readers will know that I am a great fan of The Lark having supported her in the Oaks and it is not surprising that she had too many guns for Phiz in the closing stages.

You may recall that it was the race where Hayley Turner suffered a terrible fall after her horse clipped heels. Fortunately both horse and rider were relatively unscathed but another feature of the race was the performance of the runner-up. Phiz is still learning her trade so she was a bit on and off the bridle but William Buick must have felt confident approaching the furlong pole. He turned his head to see where the dangers were and got the shock of his life to see Jamie Spencer breathing down his neck on The Lark!

Michael Bell’s filly ran out a good winner but Phiz responded well to pressure and the pair were four lengths clear of the third. There are some decent fillies in opposition tomorrow and Lady Cecil’s Court Pastoral could pose a threat along with Sir Michael Stoute’s Astonishing. Some lucky punters have snaffled up 9-2 about Phiz before I could get this posted but 7-2 still looks good value.

I’ll be interested to see how Nezar gets on in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes (3.40) as he impressed me at York and again at Chester. Repeater (4.15) also went into my notebook with a promising run in the Doncaster Cup. If you like well-bred two-year-olds, how about these two newcomers in the first on Thursday; King’s Land (New Approach – Kazzia) and Touch The Sky (Sea The Stars – Love Divine). They don’t get much better than that!

Phiz 3.10 Newmarket 7-2 Coral

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 21st September

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Having wisely resisted the temptation to get involved in the first two days of the Ayr Western meeting, Saturday’s card provides some top quality racing. There are also excellent betting opportunities at Newbury and Newmarket on what promises to be a very entertaining weekend.

The first horse that I want to be on at Ayr is the two-year-old Braidley in the opening nursery. He won so easily at Doncaster that even a hefty 10lbs rise doesn’t put me off. You wouldn’t want to take too short a price but I’m happy with the opening 4-1.

The Firth Of Clyde Stakes brings together Valonia and Coral Mist, first and second at Goodwood last month. That was Coral Mist’s first outing and she showed the benefit of the experience when winning impressively next time. Qatar Racing have moved in to purchase Valonia and are hoping that she can prove good enough to justify an entry in the Rockfel Stakes. Remember You is the form horse if Great White Eagle is as good as his Guineas price says but I’m siding with Coral Mist at 7-1.

I haven’t dabbled in the ante-post market for the Ayr Gold Cup. Over 200 entries was just too mind-blowing even for me! I’m inclined to stick with Richard Fahey’s Baccarat after the way he mowed down Spinatrix at Ripon. His trainer has admitted that he has a slight concern over the soft ground but he’s one of the few runners with pretentions of class and looks a reasonable bet at 12-1.

Fahey is also confident of a bold run from Supplicant in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. Richard Hannon’s Shamshon is the obvious threat if he sees out the extra furlong but an each-way bet on Supplicant surely can’t be far off the mark at 5-1 or thereabouts. The Arc Trial may be rather grandly named but there are some decent types turning out including Godolphin’s Kassiano. He won with any amount in hand at Newmarket last time and looks to have his idea trip. I have a healthy respect for Gifted Girl but she is unproven beyond a mile whilst Camborne probably needs further.

According to the official handicapper, Jallota and Wedding Ring should bolt up in their respective £100,000 sales races. They each have upwards of 12lbs in hand on their rivals. Things don’t always work out that way but Wedding Ring is not that far behind Ihtimal whilst Jallota ran in one of the best two-year-old races in Europe when fourth to No Nay Never.

I’m also keen on the beautifully bred Casual Smile in the opener. I thought she would win at Ascot last time but she seemed to get involved in a set-to with a rival when launching her run on the outside and never quite got there. Finally, look out for Yeager in the last. His run in Arlington was brought to an abrupt end when he clipped the heels of a rival but he looked a fast improving sort when winning for us at 20-1 at Ascot. A good run on Saturday will put him in contention for the Cambridgeshire.

Ayr

1.30 Braidley 4-1 William Hill

3.15 Coral Mist 7-1 William Hill

3.50 Baccarat 12-1 888Sport

Newbury

1.50 Kassiano 13-8 William Hill

2.20 Supplicant 5-1 Coral

Newmarket

1.55 Casual Smile 13-8 Betfair

2.30 Wedding Ring 6-4 Bet365

3.05 Jallota 6-4 Paddy Power

5.55 Yeager 6-1 William Hill