Tag: Newmarket

Saturday 4th May Horse Racing Tips

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It’s been a decent week for us, several winners and a cheeky double. Who could want any more than that?

Today is 2000 guineas day, and in typical Tipsy Tipster fashion, i am going to look away from the race in order to find us a winner today. Why? I think the 2000 guineas is actually difficult to call, my heart wants Dawn Approach to win, my head is saying Toronado could put it to him, can’t decide. Reverse Forecast maybe?

Sentaril – 4:05 Goodwood – 11/4 Stanjames

Sentaril, ridden by Graham Lee, is the top rated horse in this race. He has shown he takes to the mile distance after asserting when beating Burke’s Rock (who reopposes) last time out at Lingfield. Burke’s rock has a 3 pound pull at the weights under Mikael Barzelona, and is the most likely to come 2nd to the selection.

Stiring Ballad will be popular and could well get up and win, but the form of Sentaril, what he’s achieved and the company he’s been keeping should see him come out on top today.

Additionally, another horse worthy of a little investment is Ayaar in the 17:35 at Newmarket. A muliple winner last year including a group 3 contest at Baden-Baden. He took on Dawn Approach after that and understandly got well beaten. His next run he took on Gareswood in a group 1 at Newmarket, finishing 4th, 3 lengths behind that day. This is a class drop, and at around the 13/2 mark (Stanjames) – He’s well worth a look.

Racing Preview Saturday 4th May

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Saturday’s feature race is the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but there are plenty of other races worthy of study. In truth, the rest of Newmarket’s card is a little disappointing. I am often surprised at the poor turnout for Group races in this country and the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) is a case in point. Just four runners for a £100,000 race preceding the first classic of the season? I know that the authorities do their best with the re-opening of races but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a change to the programme next year.

The opening race is an interesting handicap and the betting is likely to revolve around Rye House, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He doesn’t keep them in training at four unless they are likely to pay their way and the lightly raced son of Dansili starts the season on a fair handicap mark. The Palace House Stakes is typically competitive and I’m a big fan of Spirit Quartz, trained by Robert Cowell. He won well enough at Nottingham first time out and is surely destined for a big sprint victory this season. I would have been more confident but for being drawn 15 tomorrow but he looks worth supporting at 13-2.

In the 4.25 I’ve got to side with Fils Anges who got no run at all when a beaten favourite last time out. Michael Bell’s grey colt was gaining with every stride but the post came too soon in the Nottingham race won by Mayfield Girl. The form of the race may not be anything special but the extra furlong will help and Hayley Turner can guide him to victory. Mark Johnston runs Windhoek quite quickly after winning a valuable sales race here last month. That looked a better class of race than he faces tomorrow and it will be disappointing if he cannot remain unbeaten.

Away from Newmarket there are one or two horses worth noting for the season ahead. William Haggas is sending Sentaril to Goodwood to start her campaign. She looked a smart filly last season but never quite fulfilled the promise of her great run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. She won over a mile on the all-weather without really having the run of the race and can confirm the placings with runner-up Burke’s Rock on the way to better things.

Sir Michael Stoute runs another useful sort in Enrol in the sprint handicap at Doncaster tomorrow evening. The lightly-raced daughter of Pivotal won two of her four starts as a three-year-old and is difficult to assess on that form. Cheveley Park will be hoping she can step up from handicaps to listed class later in the season and she will be a popular choice here. There is also a good quality card at Thirsk featuring the Thirsk Hunt Cup. David O’Meara’s stable continue to churn out the winners and he is well represented throughout the meeting. However, the draw has not been kind to his horses and course regular Dubai Dynamo could represent each-way value.

Rye House 2.05 Newmarket 7-1 Paddy Power
Spirit Quartz 2.35 Newmarket 13-2 Paddy Power
Fils Anges (NAP) 4.25 Newmarket 8-1 Paddy Power
Windhoek 5.00 Newmarket 11-8 Bet365
Sentaril (NB) 4.05 Goodwood 11-4 Bet Victor
Dubai Dynamo 4.35 Thirsk 16-1 Bet365
Enrol 6.45 Doncaster 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket 1000 Guineas Preview

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Whilst the 2000 Guineas looks likely to fall to one of the favourites, the 1000 Guineas has a far more open look. Up until the eye-catching performance of Hot Snap in the Nell Gwynn Stakes it was anybody’s guess what would be sent off favourite. You had to be impressed with her performance that day in sprinting clear of a useful yardstick in Sky Lantern, especially as it was only her second racecourse appearance. She didn’t seem to know what was expected of her in the early stages but she quickened past some decent fillies in a matter of strides.

Those who were quick off the mark could have got 5-1 about her but she is now half that price and no longer represents value in an open race. I have still have a healthy respect for Sky Lantern and if you have backed her ante-post I would certainly not have given up hope of a return. She looked to have strengthened up through the winter and would have posted an impressive performance but for Sir Henry Cecil’s filly. I would not put you off supporting either on Sunday but there are several other fillies with sound claims.

Any French raider for this contest is worth a second look and What A Name has to be considered. She won the Prix Impudence on her latest start despite meeting trouble in running off a slow early pace. The French trials can be misleading as they invariably dawdle through the opening stages before gradually quickening up. The 1000 Guineas can be a very different race as we discovered last year when Homecoming Queen ran the field ragged. Even so, there are reasons for believing that What A Name can play a leading role here. Her trainer does not waste money on entries abroad and the daughter of Mr Greeley hasn’t been out of the frame in five starts. She looked to have more to offer at the end of seven furlongs last time and looks fairly priced at around 5-1.

Moth is an intriguing supplementary entry from the O’Brien stable after running away with a poor race recently. They had always regarded her as more of an Oaks filly so were surprised when she left her rivals flat-footed over seven furlongs. This is a much tougher assignment and 7-1 looks a bit short to me. Charlie Hills has great hopes of Just The Judge as he bids to follow in his father’s footsteps. She did nothing wrong as a two-year-old but could find one or two of these too sharp first time out. I was not impressed with the trial won by Maureen at Newbury and much prefer Sky Lantern of the Hannon runners.

But the one I fancy to give a good run for each-way supporters is Dermot Weld’s Rasmeyaa. Admittedly she hasn’t raced this season either but was very impressive in winning her maiden last year and is bred to get the mile. This looks a tall order first time out but Weld is another trainer who knows the time of day and would not be running here unless he felt she was in this class.

What A Name 5-1 Paddy Power
Rasmeyaa (each-way) 16-1 Ladbrokes

Newmarket 2000 Guineas Preview

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I am just back from a week away and have been catching up with the news. I thought that I had selected a pretty quiet week for a break but apparently not! The Godolphin doping scandal has rocked the racing world; most particularly Newmarket as it shudders at the thought of life after Sheikh Mohammed. Fortunately it seems that there is no immediate threat to his racing empire and Mahmood Al Zarooni has been hastily despatched back to Dubai on the back of an eight year ban. That all seemed to be dealt with rather too hastily and you can’t help but wonder what repercussions lie just around the corner.

It only seems like yesterday that we were trying (in vain) to work out the Grand National winner and here we are approaching the first classic of the new turf season! Godolphin may have lost the chance to run Certify in the 1000 Guineas but they still have the favourite for the first colt’s classic in Dawn Approach. He is trained in Ireland by Jim Bolger but there is no doubt that the Godolphin operation has been tainted by recent events and it would be ironic if they collect on Saturday. He was smart enough as a two-year-old but without a recent outing I am not remotely tempted by odds in the region of 11-8.

His victory in the Dewhurst Stakes was more workmanlike than spectacular and he briefly looked in trouble before responding to pressure to run down stable companion Leitir Mor. He was well on top at the finish but it did not look a vintage renewal. In third place that day was Aidan O’Brien’s George Vancouver who closed in to challenge before flattening out again in the last furlong. He has three and a half lengths to make up on Dawn Approach but put up a much improved effort to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next time out. He was given a perfect ride by Ryan Moore that day, holding his position on the fence before being produced between horses in the short straight.

The chief market rival to the favourite is Richard Hannon’s Toronado. His front-running display in the Craven Stakes has seen his price collapse to 9-4 and you can understand why. Hannon rates him right up there with the best and he goes into the race fit and unbeaten. He also looks a straight forward ride and you would expect Richard Hughes to have him right up there from the outset. Whether or not 9-4 is great value is hard to say but he looks a major player.

Aidan O’Brien also runs Cristoforo Colombo and Mars with Joseph O’Brien preferring to ride the former. He looks tried and tested and the application of cheek pieces on Saturday does not inspire confidence. Mars is obviously a colt of enormous potential but seems well down the pecking order at Ballydoyle ahead of the first classic. I am a big fan of Garswood who did this column a favour when winning the Free Handicap in great style recently. Trainer Richard Fahey admitted that he had no idea whether or not he would stay the seven furlongs that day but he is apparently now full of hope that he will last the mile. As much as I like the colt, I must admit that it had occurred to me that he was a classic contender and I am slightly mystified by his price of 12-1.

Of the remainder, I like Moohajim but his run in the Greenham suggested that he will not stay a mile. He cruised into contention but found little under pressure behind Olympic Glory. He will presumably be held up to get the trip but it is difficult to be confident that he will do so. Toronado looks the most likely winner but I’m also going to recommend an each-way bet on George Vancouver at 16-1.

Toronado 9-4 William Hill
George Vancouver (each-way) 16-1 Paddy Power

Thursday 17th April Horse Racing Tips

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Poor Sky Lantern. Thought he had it when all the other horses around her were being firmly ridden, wasn’t expecting the eventual winner to sprout wins and go by, nevermind..

Move In Time – 15:30 Newmarket – NAP – 11/2 VCBet

I could of been super boring here and gone for Toronado in the Craven, but i couldn’t tip another oddson horse after the major disappointment of Elusive Hawk last week!

Move In Time. What do we know about this horse? He won a weak Musslebrough maiden after switching stables to David O’Meara, then won a big field handicap at Doncaster last Saturday in some style. If he isnt any worse for wear, he should have an great chance. Season big-field handicappers like Hawkeythenoo and The Cheka oppose today, the former certainly couldnt be ruled out as he’s won on his seasonal reappearance before.

We’re going to stick with a previous listed winner in Move In Time, this is super competitive, and i could spend all night making a case out for many of these runners, but i won’t. Let’s hope Move In Time brings home the chicken!

Newmarket Craven Stakes Day Preview

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Garswood kept up the good work for us on the opening day of the Craven meeting, running out a most impressive winner of the European Free Handicap. Such is the nature of racing these days that any horse that wins a half decent race is given quotes for everything from the Derby to the Boat race! However, I was surprised to see Garswood being quoted for the 2000 Guineas.

Before the race even trainer Richard Fahey had some reservations about whether or not he would stay seven furlongs. The colt dispelled those fears by winning with his ears pricked but you have to question whether or not it was classic form. I don’t think I shall be re-investing the winnings at 25-1 for the Guineas but he certainly looks one to follow.

Talking of re-investing winnings, Wednesday’s card poses a problem with our 9-1 Doncaster winner Move In Time turning out quickly for the Group 3 Abernant Stakes. At first glance this looks like a stiff task after winning a handicap off 95 on Saturday. Even if we give him a rating of 100 for his victory he still has to find at least 7lb with Captain Ramius, Hawkeyethenoo, Jimmy Styles, The Cheka and Tiddliwinks. Of those, Captain Ramius is race fit having chased home Jack Dexter at Doncaster but he might need seven furlongs on this better ground. I tipped Hawkeyethenoo when he won the Stewards Cup last season so I have plenty of time for his chances and The Cheka usually runs well fresh. With the bookies going 5-1 the field, I think I am going to have to put this race in the “too difficult” drawer.

A field of just four for the Craven Stakes is disappointing but they are all smart colts. Richard Hannon runs Havana Gold and Toronado and the vibes from the stable suggest that the latter is a genuine classic contender. Dundonnell and Tawhid are no slouches and this could be a very tactical affair. Another potential classic colt is on show in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy when Ghurair is expected to go off odds-on favourite. On official ratings he has the best part of a stone in hand on this lot but he is untried over a mile and a quarter. There are some promising types in the field, notably Luca Cumani’s Greatwood who looks sure to relish the extra distance. The stable had a runner in the Nell Gwynn Stakes today that ran very poorly so I shall keep a watchful eye on Greatwood for the time being.

The Nell Gwynn produced a 10-1 winner in Hot Snap, trained by Sir Henry Cecil. Although she beat a good sort in Sky Lantern it seems a little early to be making her 1000 Guineas favourite. Bookies slashed her odds to 5-1 from 40-1! Connections were apparently thinking about the Coronation Stakes as her main target before the race but will presumably run her at Newmarket now. I’d rather see the other trials before wading in at those sort of odds.

I do have one bet for Thursday and it is provided by Move In Time’s trainer David O’Meara. Bet365 have chalked up Sandy Lane at 2-1 for the 4.30 at Ripon tomorrow. The horse had the race won two furlongs out last time and could have won by fifteen lengths. Enough said!

Sandy Lane 4.30 Ripon 2-1 Bet365