Tag: NFL odds

Super Bowl Betting: Odds Drift Out on New England Patriots

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Super Bowl is one of the biggest betting events in the calendar and huge sums are already being wagered on it, with forecasts expecting it to be worth more than $5 billion to bookmakers. As the money flies in, the odds are shifting constantly as online betting sites like Sun Bets, Sky Bet, Bet365 and more react to the trends and cover their backs. With the big game rapidly approaching, it is worth examining which way the betting is going before placing your wager.

The majority of NFL fans seem to have decided that the value is on the Atlanta Falcons as the odds on the underdogs have drifted in. A week ago the Falcons were best priced at 7/5 with William Hill but those odds have now shortened to 13/10 as the money has gone on Atlanta. That means you can now typically find better odds on the favourites, the New England Patriots. A week ago they were 20/31 at Bet365 and Ladbrokes but they have now gone out to 4/6. It might not sound a huge difference, as it is going from 1.65 to 1.67 when we render it in a digital odds format, but that 0.02 increase can count for a lot when you consider some of the sums being wagered on this game. The Patriots have been dominant this season and over the past decade with the Bill Bellichick-Tom Brady axis leading them to glory time and time again, and that 4/6 offers fantastic value. But the Falcons are the hottest team in the league right now thanks to an offence that is firing on all cylinders, so it is easy to see why people are backing them and causing the odds to fall.

There is a lot more value to be had on the Patriots when you move into the spread betting market and fans have responded in their droves. Las Vegas has set the spread at Patriots -3 and NFL enthusiasts are lumping on the Pats to cover it. The odds on the Patriots with the spread have plummeted at most bookmakers, but Paddy Power is still offering a generous 21/20, so that looks a great option if you think they can do it. It promises to be a tight game and the Pats should shade it thanks to their superb defence, but New England -3 looks a bit risky. If you’re feeling more cautious, Bet365 has 5/7 on New England -2. Or if you’re feeling supremely confident in New England you can get huge odds of 7/4 on the Patriots -5.5 at Paddy Power. If, on the other hand, you think the Falcons might sneak a win but you are worried they could also fall to a narrow defeat, you can get 10/11 with Sky Bet on Atlanta +3 or 5/8 on Atlanta +5.5 at Bet365.

The other main markets and the wonderful, dizzying array of prop bets are pretty much stagnant at present and are unlikely to shift much if at all in the run-up to the Super Bowl as the serious money goes on the spread and the outrights, while these are more fun novelty options.

Top picks

New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 4/6 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 with Bet365

Under 58.5 points in total at 10/11 with Sky Bet, Ladbrokes and various others

Julio Jones to score first touchdown at 8/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and various others

Tom Brady to be named Super Bowl MVP at 10/11 with Paddy Power

LeGarette Blount to gain the most rushing yards at 5/4 with Boylesports

No missed extra point at 2/7 with Betfred

No defensive touchdown scored at 4/6 with Bet365

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

Patriots to Beat Steelers but Pittsburgh to Beat the Spread

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The New England Patriots have breezed to a record sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and now just the Pittsburgh Steelers stand between them and the Super Bowl. It will be a really tall order for Pittsburgh to win this one as the Pats have looked the best team in the league by some distance this season and are 11/8 favourites to win the Super Bowl (Sky Bet).

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers closed the regular season with seven straight wins to finish 11-5, winning the NFC North and qualifying as third seeds for the playoffs. They destroyed the Miami Dolphins in the Wildcard Round and then went on to face second-seeded Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs were favourites and we tipped it to be a very close game but said the Steelers would steal it, and that is exactly what happened as they ran out 18-16 winners in a tense affair. Steelers kicker set a postseason record by scoring six field goals to edge it for Pittsburgh by the slenderest of margins. They go into the championship game as underdogs, but they will be emboldened by their recent form.

New England Patriots

New England has had the clearest run to the championship game than any of the other teams still left in the playoffs. QB Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over his role in the Deflategate fiasco, but it mattered little as the Pats powered to a 14-2 record, the best in the league. It left them as first seed in the AFC – a valuable position they squandered last season – and they sat out the Wildcard Round before securing an easy home game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.

Houston finished 9-7 and only scraped through thanks to an injury crisis at Oakland, and Brady duly picked them off. New England ran out 34-16 winners, covering the largest point spread in playoff history, as we suggested they would. Patriots RB Dion Lewis looked sensational as he used his lightning pace to become the first player to score on a rush, a catch and a kick return in a postseason game. With him and Brady firing on all cylinders, the Pats look invincible at present.

Projections

The Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 in October in the regular season, but you should not read too much into that as Pittsburgh were missing QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is now back at full strength, and the Pats were blessed with the talents of star receiver Rob Gronkowski, who is now injured. The Steelers finished the regular season with the 12th best defence and have conceded just 28 points in two playoff games. Offensively they are superb as Roethlisberger has lots of great passing options, which creates gaps of space all over the field. In Le’Veon Bell they also have one of the league’s best RBs, and he has been sensational in the postseason. New England will need to shut him down to have any chance of winning.

The Steelers, meanwhile, will have to do their best to make Brady uncomfortable, as he is on a roll and has proven himself time and time again in the postseason. It looks like being a really close encounter that the Pats should just about shade, so the 5/12 on offer at Paddy Power on a New England win in front of their home crowd looks a decent bet, despite not providing a great deal of value. To get more bang for your buck, you will have to consider spread betting, and then it gets more complicated. It is not hard to imagine the Pats winning this by around three points, so they might not cover the spread and the 7/10 Bet365 has on Pittsburgh +6.5 looks a really good option as they are a competitive, battling team.

Super Bowl Favourites New England Face Huge Spread in Playoffs

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Just eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs and they are a mere two games away from reaching the Super Bowl, so it’s all getting excruciatingly tense Stateside. First up is an intriguing showdown between the Seahawks and the Falcons, before Super Bowl favourites the Patriots start their postseason campaign against the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Seattle made short work of the Lions in the Wildcard Round, routing them 26-6 in front of their home fans, but they face a much sterner test now. The Falcons finished the regular season with four wins in a row to go 11-5 and steal second seed spot ahead of the Seahawks, who ended up 10-5-1 after losing two of their final four regular season games. That means Atlanta have home field advantage, which could prove crucial here. These two teams met earlier in the season and it was a nail-biter as the Seahawks ran out 26-24 winners in Seattle in October. It is a source of great contention for the Falcons due to a pass interference call the referee missed when they were on a fourth down play late in the fourth. You would think that win would give the Seahawks confidence, but it is worth bearing in mind two things: on that day they had home field advantage and they had Earl Thomas. In Divisional Round they will have neither.

Thomas was a beast for the Seahawks this season. The Seattle safety limited Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just one touchdown pass combined over two games. The Seahawks defence only gave up seven touchdown passes in the 11 games he was on the field (albeit three of them were against Atlanta in that 26-24 win). Since his injury, they have lost three of seven and have not looked at all as solid. They are 3-4-1 on the road compared to 8-1 at home and it is hard to imagine them travelling all the way to Atlanta and getting the win. The best odds you can get on Atlanta are at around the 4/9 mark with Sky Bet, so for more value, back Atlanta -3.5 at 3/4 with Bet365.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

The Pats have been devastating this season, qualifying for the playoffs with the best record in the league at 14-2. The Texans, less so. They limped into the playoffs as fourth seed on 9-7 with the same record as the Titans but qualified as they had a better record against comparative teams. They benefited from a lucky draw in the Wildcard round as they hosted an Oakland Raiders team deprived of their star quarterback and his understudy due to an injury crisis, and went through. They are the weakest team left in the playoffs and this is expected to be a complete mismatch.

The Pats are 7/4 favourites to win the Super Bowl, while the Texans are rank outsiders at 66/1. The bookmakers have completely given up on Houston: the Texans are a massive 10/1 to win this with Boylesports, while the Pats are as low as 1/20 but best priced at 1/12 with Bet Victor. There is no value there, but the point spread is the largest in 18 years of playoff games, as Vegas has made Houston 16-point underdogs. The teams met earlier in the season on Week 3, when New England won 27-0 with a third string quarterback. This time Brady will be in the team and the Texans will be crushed. New England have covered some massive spreads in recent weeks and they can get the job done here, so the evens Paddy Power is offering on the Patriots -15.5 looks a good bet.

NFL playoffs: Steelers and Texans favourites in AFC Wildcard Round

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

NFL fans have been treated to an exciting regular season full of twists and turns, but we are now moving into the business end of the season: the playoffs. We start with the Wildcard Round, which sees the two division winners with the lowest win records in each conference take on the two best runners-up. In the AFC the Houston Texans host the injury-hit Oakland Raiders in the first game, while the in-form Pittsburgh Steelers have home advantage against the Miami Dolphins.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

It was all going so well for Oakland as they qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2002. But then they were rocked by the injury to star quarterback Derek Carr, who suffered a broken fibula and was ruled out indefinitely, and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl plummeted accordingly. In their last regular season game, Carr’s replacement Matt McGroin was hit by a shoulder injury, and they finished with rookie Connor Cook as QB. It cost them as they slumped to a 24-6 defeat against the Broncos, who were on a long losing streak and already eliminated. That caused them to slip from first to second in the AFC West as the Kansas City Chiefs won to leapfrog them at the death, so they go into the Wildcard Round after slipping from number two seed to number five and have to face the Texans, who finished 9-7 to win the AFC South and claim the number four seed despite having a worse record than the Raiders.

Without Carr, nobody is giving the Raiders much of a chance. They beat the Texans in week 11, but the teams are looking very different now. The Texans are 1.55 with Boyle Sport and that looks a good price, considering how depleted the Raiders are. The Texans’ quarterback situation is a bit uncertain too, as Tom Savage left Sunday’s game with a knock and Brock Osweiler came back in, so you might want to see who the starting quarterbacks are before placing your bet, but the Texans should cover a -3.5 spread at 10/11 with Bet365 if Cook starts. If they can’t beat a third string rookie quarterback, Houston fans will go ballistic.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are on a sensational seven-game winning streak and have been made third-favourites for the Super Bowl at 17/2 with Paddy Power. Despite that they only finished as third seed in the AFC and have to get through the Wildcard Round against the sixth-seeded team, the Dolphins, who finished 10-6 in the AFC East. The Steelers are on a roll and should be far too strong for Miami, who were crushed 35-14 by the New England Patriots in their last game. The Miami defence was run ragged and the offence was constantly under pressure, so the fans will not be full of optimism ahead of the trip to Pittsburgh.

Having said that, the Dolphins did beat the Steelers 30-15 in week 6, but a lot has changed since then and the Steelers have looked outstanding in their seven-match winning run. That is borne out in the odds, with the Dolphins huge outsiders at 7/2 with the likes of William Hill and Bet365, and Pittsburgh as low as 1/5 but best priced at 4/17 with 888 Sport and Unibet. The Steelers should win this one comfortably and that looks a good one for any accumulator bets. Injuries are looking good for the Steelers as Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell will play a postseason game together for the first time, while Miami’s defence is banged up and quarterback Ryan Tannehill – who put the Steelers to the sword in week 6 – is also injured. The spread on the Steelers is -9.5, a huge favouritism, and while they may not quite cover that they should win this one fairly comfortably.

Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions set for tense finale

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Week 17 promises to be a nail-biting one for thousands of NFL fans as there are four teams vying for the final two playoff berths in the NFC. It is win or bust for the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions as their game will decide who wins the NFC North, while the Washington Redskins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also in with a chance of earning a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

The NFC East looks to be the best division in the league right now, with the Cowboys leading the way on 13-2 and the Giants second with a 10-5 record. Both have already qualified for the playoffs, but a third team from the division could also go through if Washington secure the final wildcard spot. That would mean three of the six teams going to the playoffs have come from the same division, and it is looking pretty likely.

The Redskins host New York knowing that the Giants have nothing to play for. They are locked in for the fifth seed spot, so they will more than likely rest key players to avoid the risk of sustaining any injuries ahead of the playoffs. The Redskins have it all to play for and come into the match fresh from a 41-21 thrashing of the Chicago Bears. They should be able to beat the Giants, but about the best price you can get is 3/10 at Paddy Power. It looks good for any accumulators you are considering, but it does not represent great value. The spread is pretty tough on the Redskins as they are -8 and they will struggle to cover that. You would expect them to win but not by a huge margin, so the 20/23 on the New York Giants +8 looks a good bet, as the Redskins are likely to win this by only three or four points.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The biggest fixture in week 17 has been saved for last as the Packers travel to Detroit for the crunch game. Both teams are 9-6 and are tied at the top of NFC North and the winner takes it all. Things are not looking good for the Lions. They have led the division for most of the season, but have lost their last two games and seen the Packers catch up with them right at the death. Last week’s 42-21 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys, who had already qualified for the playoffs and had nothing to play for, will have caused a great deal of consternation among their fans.

By contrast, the Packers are flying, having embarked on a five-game winning streak, the best in the conference. That run has included victories over excellent teams such as the Seahawks and Texans, both of whom have made the playoffs, and they should be able to topple Detroit. In that five-game winning streak, their average margin of victory has been 13 points, so they look good to cover a -3.5 spread at 19/20 with Bet365 when they travel to Detroit. Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely sensational during their winning run with 11 passing touchdowns – four of them against the Vikings last week – and zero interceptions. A creaking Detroit defence will struggle to contain him and we could see a repeat of the game earlier in the season when Green Bay beat them by seven points. If you think it will be closer than that, Bet365 has 4/6 on the Packers at -2 or 4/7 on them simply winning outright.