Tag: Niceofyoutotellme

York Magnet Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

York’s Magnet Cup is always a great betting race and Saturday’s race has attracted a massive 42 declarations at the confirmation stage. There are some rapidly improving types amongst them and the two that stand out for me are Niceofyoutotellme and Nabucco, first and second at Newmarket last month.

John Gosden’s Nabucco did this column a favour when landing a handicap at the same venue but has incurred a 5lb penalty. That theoretically gives him a lot to do with Niceofyoutotellme, being 3lbs worse off with the horse that beat him a length.

As far as I am aware, both horses have been given the green light for the race and there are no major concerns about the fast ground. Ralph Beckett’s horse first caught my eye when finishing like a train to win on the all-weather and he produced a fine turn of foot to cut down Nabucco last time. The runner-up won nicely under a canny ride from Ryan Moore subsequently and could still be improving.

The draw has come to the rescue of the bookies on several occasions recently and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that these two smart horses are not given an impossible task. Ladbrokes are best on both horses and I expect both to shorten up.

The early favourite is Stencive, trained by William Haggas and ridden by the in-form Graham Lee. He was heavily backed when second to Opinion at Royal Ascot last month. I expressed reservations about the quality of that particular Ascot race last week and it was no real surprise that Opinion could not lump 9st 10lb to victory in the Old Newton Cup. Having said that, he ran creditably in a muddling sort of race and Stencive did give him too much rope at Ascot.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House is a horse that I have been keen to follow since he bolted up at York earlier in the season but he has missed a number of engagements since. In fact, he was Moore’s intended mount at Ascot before switching to Opinion. I think his problem may be the ground as he does hit the ground quite hard. I’m guessing that Sir Michael is waiting for a bit of cut in the ground before risking him and I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Another progressive sort is Clon Brulee who absolutely hacked up at Ripon before following up in the Zetland Gold Cup. If he gets a favourable draw he could well prove a danger and he has the right profile for this race.

David Simcock’s Whispering Warrior keeps on winning and has gone up over two stone in the handicap this season. His only recent blemish came at Newmarket when he was baulked early on and could never get competitive. He looks like one of those horses who keeps a bit to himself in the closing stages and is another to consider in a fascinating contest.

For the moment, I shall pin my colours to the Newmarket form and hope that the declarations and draw are favourable.

Niceofyoutotellme 12-1 Ladbrokes
Nabucco 16-1 Ladbrokes

Epsom Preview Friday 31st May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Oaks is the feature race of Epsom’s opening day with Secret Gesture set to go off favourite. Ralph Beckett’s filly has replaced Moth at the head of the market and the midweek rain can only have improved her chances. The rain could also help my each-way selection The Lark so I’m looking forward to the race with optimism.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking contest for the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. I’ve been following Sentaril throughout her career and she started her campaign with a promising run at Goodwood. She was held up by Graham Lee but he found himself trapped on the rails when the pace quickened and he had to wait to deliver his challenge. Sentaril ran on well enough but the winner had first run and held off her late challenge. You can make a case for most of the runners here but I’ll keep faith with Sentaril at 6-1.

I picked out Niceofyoutotellme when the 2.10 was priced up earlier in the week but he is now a non-runner. The money during the week seems to have been for Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett. The four-year-old has not been seen since disappointing in the November Handicap so I can only guess that they have him ready first time out.

The Diomed Stakes is another trappy little race where it is difficult to be too confident. I’m going to side with Gregorian who produced some top class form last season and looked as they he would be sharpened up by his outing at Haydock recently. I respect the claims of Producer who has won all four previous starts at Epsom and that’s a stat that it is difficult to ignore.

I will probably regret overlooking Gabrial. He did this column a good turn when winning the Doncaster Mile but then failed to go through with his effort at Chester. He looked a difficult ride that day and ran like a sidewinder up the straight. If Spencer can preserve his finishing kick he could probably run diagonally across the course and still win but I’m not prepared to take the chance.

Andrew Balding withdrew Here Comes When from the Silver Bowl on account of the firm ground and he has been re-routed to the Listed race at 4.45. His main rival looks to be Hasopop who was behind him at Newbury earlier in the season. He has since won a decent six furlong handicap at Newmarket and is the best part of a stone better off than at Newbury for two lengths.

Strictly speaking, Hasopop should be the selection but Here Comes When won at Chester with a bit in hand. The bookmakers have priced them up at 9-4 and 7-2 and I’m very confident that the race concerns these two. Earlier this week I fancied Heeraat at Beverley and rated Hamza the only danger. I don’t want to make the same mistake again here so I recommend splitting stakes on the pair.

Ante-Post Oaks
Secret Gesture 4-1
The Lark (each-way) 33-1

1.35 Sentaril 6-1 William Hill
2.45 Gregorian 7-2 Paddy Power, Producer 4-1 William Hill
4.45 Hasopop 9-4 William Hill, Here Comes When 7-2 Bet Victor

Epsom Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365