Tag: Nicky Henderson

Cheltenham Preview – Friday 13th March

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It’s Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and we look set for a thrilling renewal. If there are any doubts about the quality, there is at least quantity and most punters would rather watch a competitive race with 17 runners than an odds-on favourite in a small field.

Silviniaco Conti supporters will be hoping for third time lucky after falling in 2013 and fading up the hill last year. We will never know whether he would have won had he not tipped up three out but it is difficult to make a case about him not liking the track. He did everything right last year but didn’t quite last home.

The bookmakers are taking a chance at 5-1 about him. We already have Djakadam tipped at ante-post odds of 16-1 but his inexperience may count against him while Lord Windermere will probably run his best race of the season. I also fancy Holywell to post a career best as he loves this meeting.

The action starts with the Triumph Hurdle and we were on Top Notch at 16-1 some weeks ago. I’m pleased that the owners are letting him run despite also having the hot favourite in Peace And Co. I also like Pain Au Chocolat and Devilment at big prices in a fascinating race. Very few of these have actually met in the trials so it is really a shot in the dark.

The County Hurdle is notoriously difficult to sort out and a very appropriate winner would be Sort It Out. He is one of three JP McManus runners along with Waxies Dargle and Princely Conn. The latter is the mount of AP McCoy while Waxies Dargle fell in a big handicap last time and has Paul Carberry in the saddle. Quick Jack will probably start favourite and should run well for Tony Martin.

I’ve been a fan of Value At Risk for the Albert Bartlett for some time so shouldn’t really desert him now. My only concern is the quicker ground but the same applies to most of these. The Henderson horses, Out Sam and Carache Apache, are attractively priced and I wouldn’t put you off either of them.

It will be interesting to see how Sheikh Fahad’s new purchase Current Event gets on in the Foxhunter but I’m siding with Nina Carberry here with On The Fringe. Much of this week has been about Willie Mullins and he can strike again with Roi Des Francs in the Martin Pipe Hurdle. Everyone will be cheering for AP on Ned Buntline in the finale but Blood Cotil is tough and consistent and can close out the meeting for Mullins in style.

New customers only – Racebet 10-1 Nicky Henderson to win 1.30 (max. £5 stake)

1.30 Top Notch @16-1* Ante-post

2.05 Sort It Out @14-1 Bet365

2.40 Value At Risk @12-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Djakadam @16-1 *Ante-post

4.00 On The Fringe @8-1 Ladbrokes

4.40 Roi Des Francs @9-2 Bet365

5.15 Blood Cotil @10-1 Bet365

Cheltenham Preview – Thursday 12th March

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The World Hurdle takes centre stage at Cheltenham on Thursday with Paul Nicholls hoping to add to Wednesday’s impressive haul. The Ditcheat trainer interrupted the domination of Willie Mullins by firing a 1430-1 treble including Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase.

His World Hurdle hopes are Zarkandar and Saphir Su Rheu and I just prefer the claims of the latter. He progressed through the handicap last season and narrowly beat Whisper in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. That horse went on to win the Coral Cup and followed up in the Aintree Hurdle. Nicky Henderson has endured a miserable two days but I am hoping that Whisper can give him something to smile about.

The action starts at 1.30 and Coral are offering 5-1 about the favourite Vautour finishing in the first three here (new customers only). If you don’t already have a Coral account it may be worth considering to a maximum £10 stake. I think Ptit Zig looks the more attractively priced at 4-1 and he could provide Nicholls with his fourth winner of the meeting. He was unlucky to fall at Ascot last time but has jumped around here safely before and should go well.

The Pertemps Final looks wide open and there has been good money for Edeymi and Call The Cops this week. It does not usually pay to back horses that win handicaps impressively on the eve of the festival so Henderson’s horse might not be great value despite carrying only a 5lbs penalty. I am going to side with Big Easy although the handicapper keeps putting him up for being beaten. The Cesarewitch winner has a touch of class and could make the frame.

Johns Spirit loves it round here and looks worth a bet at 11-1 with Paddy Power in the Ryanair Chase. Don Cossack and Balder Succes are the pick on form but Johns Spirit can cut them down late on if Richie McLernon does not go too soon.

The last two races look almost impossible to solve but David Pipe’s Monetaire has a chance in the Kim Muir. He has only raced twice since arriving from France and did well to finish third here after a couple of mistakes on his first run. Lucinda Russell could give Scotland a winner in the last with Clondaw Knight who lost a shoe when beaten last time.

1.30 Vautour @5-1 Coral to finish in first three (new customers only – max. £10)

1.30 Ptit Zig @4-1 BetVictor

2.05 Big Easy @12-1 Totesport (each-way)

2.40 Johns Spirit @11-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

3.20 Saphir Du Rheu @6-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Whisper @11-1 William Hill (each-way)

4.00 Monetaire @8-1 Betfred

4.40 Clondaw Knight @20-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Imperial Cup Preview

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Any punters hoping to top up their wallets before heading to Cheltenham will be dismayed when they see the card for the Imperial Cup. The race has attracted a 24-strong field worthy of next week’s County Hurdle at the festival and will take a good deal of sorting out.

The race that may hold the best clues is the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury won by Violet Dancer. Calipto finished fourth, Arzal sixth and Fascino Rustico fell three out when still in contention. A case can be made for all three but I am just siding with Arzal who was almost brought to a standstill when almost brought to a standstill by a fallen rival.

Jockey Paul O’Brien did well to sit tight and did not rush his mount back into the race, making late progress up the home straight. He was never going to threaten the winner but he looks better value than Calipto at almost twice the price. The Paul Nicholls-trained runner wore a hood that day but it has been left off on Saturday, presumably having made little or no difference. I am just not convinced that he is the sort of horse that will relish a struggle. O’Brien claims a useful 7lbs on Arzal which puts him in with an each-way chance.

Fascino Rustico seems a bit accident prone having taken his fair share of falls in his short career. He was slightly frustrating when trained by Nicholls and is giving Dan Skelton similar concerns. He moved well on the outside at Newbury but had just come under pressure when diving at the third last. The likely favourite is David Pipe’s Bidourey who has been winning novice hurdles easily and now steps up in grade. He will probably be kept right up with the pace but it can be a long way home at Sandown and he is still only four years of age.

Nicky Henderson did Betcirca followers a favour today with Lessons In Milan (tipped at 3-1) and that made it five winners from his last six runners. The Lambourn trainer seems to have his string peaking at just the right time to take on the massed ranks of Willie Mullins at Cheltenham. I’m hoping that applies to Top Notch and Whisper who are carrying my support at fancy prices next week.

He is represented here by the enigmatic West Wizard. He was ante-post favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle a few seasons back but has been beaten three times at odds-on. Last time out he came up against a smart recruit in Minella Rocco so it may have been no disgrace to finish seven lengths adrift. He obviously isn’t as good as Henderson originally hoped and must have had his training problems but I cannot ignore him with just 10st 8lbs.

William Hill and BetVictor are offering each-way down to fifth place on this race so check with your bookmaker when placing your bets.

Arzal @14-1 BetVictor

West Wizard @9-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5

Sandown Friday Preview

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The racing has been pretty poor in the UK this week with Cheltenham looming on the horizon. The action perks up a little this weekend at Sandown with the Grand Military Gold Cup and Imperial Cup.

The Grand Military used to be a matter of picking the best jockey but the standard has definitely improved over the years. Paul Nicholls looks to have a strong hand this year with Howlongisafoot and Merrion Square and the market suggests that they will finish in that order.

Howlongisafoot ran well in a couple of handicap hurdles at the start of the season, finishing fifth at Cheltenham behind Unique De Cotte. The winner is a leading fancy for the Martin Pipe Hurdle next week at the festival. He ran here over fences in December and was beaten only a length and a quarter by Generous Ransom, another horse that is festival-bound.

He was well backed last time in a minor race at Taunton and beat Freckle Face by five lengths. He is only up 5lbs for that victory and should give Jody Sole a second winner in the race. He rode Merrion Square to victory here in 2013 but that horse may be in need of the outing this time. He was well beaten at odds-on at Worcester in August on his last start.

For the double I am going for Nicky Henderson’s Lessons In Milan in the handicap hurdle. It has not been the best season so far for the Lambourn trainer but his last four runners have won including 12-1 shot Hurricane Higgins on the flat. That augurs well for his runners next week including Peace And Co and L’Ami Serge.

Lessons In Milan is a lightly-raced seven-year-old by St Leger winner Milan out of a mare by Doyoun. He won a point-to-point in Ireland and was pitched in at Ascot on his debut against odds-on stable companion Out Sam. He was not disgraced in third and then romped to a 37-length victory at Lingfield. Admittedly it was a very poor contest but the handicapper has taken a chance by giving him a mark of 126 here.

His main danger will probably be Ustica for the Jonjo O’Neill – Tony McCoy combination. He has a similar profile but was far less impressive when scrambling home at Uttoxeter from Jalingo. The handicapper has rated him on the same figure as Lessons In Milan.

Howlongisafoot 3.25 @13-8 Paddy Power

Lessons In Milan 4.00 @3-1 Ladbrokes

Triumph Hurdle Preview

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The Triumph Hurdle used to be something of a lottery but winners have been easier to find in recent years. The classy Zarkandar won this in great style while the ill-fated Our Conor was one of the easiest winners in the history of the race.

There could well be something of his class on show again this season with Nicky Henderson set to run three, all of which have sound claims. The market has been dominated by Peace And Co since he sauntered to victory on his debut at Doncaster. Henderson has wisely avoided listing his runners in order of preference as both Hargam and Top Notch have top class form.

I dipped my toes in the ante-post market at 16-1 for Top Notch before his Haydock win and I’m pleased to see that connections still plan on running him. He is in the same ownership as the favourite and it must have been tempting to save him for Liverpool. Although it was a very poor field for the Victor Ludorum, he won like an improving juvenile and I’m hopeful of him making the frame.

Alan King has got fond memories of this race, both as a trainer and as assistant to the late David Nicholson. Mysilv was a very popular winner and Katchit went on to win the Champion Hurdle, the only five-year-old to do so in recent times. King runs Pain Au Chocolat here, a winner at Plumpton and Sandown on his last two starts. His latest victory is hard to assess as they crawled for the first half mile but he certainly has an each-way chance.

Punters were tripping over themselves to get on Beltor after he bolted up at Kempton in the Adonis Hurdle. He was no great shakes on the flat but horses can improve stones for a few flights of hurdles. He did race very keenly and you would have to worry about him settling in this big field. At first glance he looks more of an Aintree type but connections are having a tilt at the big one.

You cannot rule out the Willie Mullins runners and he looks set to saddle his Leopardstown first and second, Petite Parisienne and Kalkir. There did not really seem to be any excuses for the runner-up but there are no obvious lines linking the English and Irish form.

Top Notch @16-1 William Hill*

Pain Au Chocolat @20-1 BetVictor

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

*Ante-post

Betfair Hurdle Ante-post Preview

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The Betfair Hurdle has always been one of the top handicap hurdles of the season. It is still fondly remembered by the older generation as “The Schweppes” and has since been equally acclaimed as the Tote Gold Trophy.

The race is often won by a high-class hurdler with names like Deep Sensation, Large Action, Mysilv, Make A Stand and Landing Light bringing back fond memories. More recently the race was won by Zarkandar and My Tent Or Yours, both Champion Hurdle class.

The quality of entry does not look quite up to that grade this year with Garde La Victoire topping the weights ahead of the veteran Get Me Out Of Here and Nicky Henderson’s Sign Of A Victory. Henderson has won this race five times and Sign Of A Victory is one of five entries from the Lambourn yard.

His latest press conference suggested that Sign Of A Victory would run provided the going is not soft but I’d have to say that seems unlikely. He does not believe that Snake Eyes will get into the race but put in a good word for Haydock winner Vasco Du Ronceray. The six-year-old is not exactly thrown in at the weights having been raised 8lbs for his latest success but still has scope for improvement.

He finished fifth in the Triumph Hurdle in 2013, the year of the ill-fated Our Conor. He wore a hood for the first time that day and carried the headgear when winning easily at Haydock in November. The grey could be worth an each-way bet at 33-1, a price that would soon disappear if Henderson’s main fancy were to be withdrawn.

I also like the claims of Activial, trained by Harry Fry. He is very lightly-raced having swerved the festival meeting in March in favour of Aintree. I was disappointed with his run there when only eighth to Guitar Pete but he showed his true form in the Ladbroke. He was well-fancied for the Ascot race and looked to have every chance until fitness told in the closing stages. Fry believes that he may eventually prove better at two and a half miles but Newbury’s long galloping straight should be ideal. He is still available at 10-1 in places.

The ante-post favourite is Calipto, trained by Paul Nicholls. He was unlucky in last year’s Triumph Hurdle when his rider’s stirrup leather broke and finished ahead of Activial at Aintree. He may have raced too keenly when beaten at Cheltenham in October and has been well backed for this race. He still holds a Champion Hurdle entry but I think any value has gone at around 5-1.

Activial @10-1 888Sport, Sportingbet

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 Betfair

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4